WTI Crude Oil Price Outlook: Key Levels and Bearish Signals Below $68.30

WTI Crude Oil prices continue to struggle as demand signals from major importers, particularly China, remain weak.

On November 15, prices hovered around $67.97, just below the $68.31 pivot point, signaling ongoing bearish momentum. As global oil markets face challenges from uncertain economic recovery and potential supply increases, traders are wary of oil’s future trajectory.

EIA November short-term energy outlook:
1/ Lower 2025 crude oil price forecast
– WTI $72 (Prev: $73)
– $Brent $76 (Prev: $78)

2/ Lower natural gas price forecast
– Q4 $2.37 (Prev: $2.81), 2025 $2.90 (Prev: $3.06)#OOTT #oilandgas pic.twitter.com/jXBEOv8nqT

— CambrianMacroResearch (@CambrianMR) November 15, 2024

China’s economic slowdown, reflected in reduced refinery activity and weak industrial demand, has weighed heavily on crude prices. In October, China’s crude processing rate dropped 4.6% year-over-year, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline. This downturn, combined with slowing factory output and a fragile property sector, has dampened hopes for a robust oil demand recovery.

Bearish Technical Indicators for WTI Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil’s technical outlook remains under pressure, as prices continue to trade below critical resistance levels. Immediate resistance is positioned at $68.31, aligned with a descending trendline and further reinforced by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $68.73. If prices manage to break above these levels, the next resistance points are at $69.11 and $69.64. However, with WTI still under the EMA, any bullish attempts may be short-lived.

Adding to the bearish outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 42.91, placing it in a zone that typically signals weak momentum. The RSI’s position below the neutral 50 mark indicates that selling pressure remains dominant. As long as the RSI remains subdued, the likelihood of a significant price recovery appears low.

Crude Oil (#WTI) Price Outlook:

Preferred Scenario:
Consider short positions below 68.75, with targets at 67.60 and 67.00 in extension.

Alternative Scenario:
If prices rise above 68.75, look for further upside, targeting 69.10 and 69.70.#CrudeOilTrading #Crude #crudeoilprice pic.twitter.com/UVYzRCESHV

— Ali Al Amin (@fx_ali_amin) November 14, 2024

Key Support Levels to Watch Amid Downtrend

As WTI Crude Oil struggles to gain ground, support levels become critical for traders monitoring potential dips. Immediate support is located at $67.74, which may attract some buying interest. If prices break below this level, the next supports are found at $67.14 and $66.70. These levels could provide temporary relief but may not halt the broader downtrend if bearish factors persist.

Ongoing inventory dynamics in the U.S. also add complexity to WTI’s outlook. Last week, U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, significantly more than expected. This rise in stockpiles, coupled with a surprise drop in gasoline and distillate inventories, indicates a mixed demand scenario, complicating the price outlook further.

Key Insights:

• Resistance Levels: WTI faces immediate resistance at $68.31, with further barriers at $69.11 and $69.64.
• Support Levels: Key supports are identified at $67.74, $67.14, and $66.70.
• Technical Indicators: RSI at 42.91 and price below 50 EMA reflect continued bearish momentum.

With bearish pressure from both technical and fundamental perspectives, WTI Crude Oil may remain vulnerable unless significant demand signals emerge from major economies or a shift in market sentiment occurs. Traders should monitor these key levels and indicators closely to assess the potential for a near-term recovery or further decline.