Oil Prices at $68.88: Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Signals Key Breakout Levels

WTI Crude Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, trading at $68.88, as escalating geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine bolstered market sentiment.

Ukraine’s recent use of Western-provided missiles, including British Storm Shadows and U.S. ATACMS, to target Russian territories has heightened fears of retaliation, potentially disrupting energy markets.

Analysts from ING noted that the key risk lies in whether Ukraine targets Russian energy infrastructure and how Moscow might respond. Such developments have added a layer of uncertainty to the market.

However, these geopolitical concerns were tempered by an increase in U.S. crude inventories, which rose by 545,000 barrels to 430.3 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 15. This exceeded the anticipated 138,000-barrel rise, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline inventories also climbed, while distillate stockpiles showed a larger-than-expected draw.

Demand Recovery Supports Oil Prices

On the demand side, oil consumption showed signs of recovery, driven by higher travel activity in the U.S. and rising industrial demand in India. Analysts at JPMorgan estimate global oil demand for the first 19 days of November at 103.6 million barrels per day (bpd), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7 million bpd.

Despite this recovery, OPEC+ may revise its planned output increases during its Dec. 1 meeting. Sources within the group suggest production cuts could remain in place due to weak global demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently highlighted that even with sustained OPEC+ cuts, rising production from non-OPEC producers, including the U.S., may outpace demand by 2025.

Adding to supply, Norway’s Equinor restored full production at the Johan Sverdrup oilfield, further balancing the market amid these mixed dynamics.

Technical Outlook: Oil Awaits Breakout

WTI Crude Oil remains range-bound, with a symmetrical triangle pattern signaling indecision. The price is holding near its pivot point at $69.14, with immediate resistance at $69.90 and further barriers at $70.53 and $71.36. Support lies at $68.85, with next levels at $68.43 and $67.62.

The 50-day EMA aligns with immediate support, while the RSI at 47 reflects neutral conditions. A breakout above $69.90 could trigger bullish momentum toward $71.36, while a drop below $68.43 risks further declines. Traders should monitor these key levels for clarity on the next move.