Walmart Stock Reaches New High After Impressive Q3 Earnings – YTD +65%

The Walmart stock price has been on a massive rally this year, gaining 65% and outpacing major indices, while putting another new high yesterday after the higher earnings for Q3.

Walmart delivered a strong performance in its fiscal Q3 2025 results, with both earnings and revenue surpassing expectations. This marks another solid quarter for the company, prompting management to once again raise its guidance for fiscal 2025. Growth was evident across all business segments, fueled by higher sales in stores and clubs, expanding e-commerce, enhanced pickup options, and faster delivery services.

Walmart’s newer initiatives, such as its marketplace, and membership programs, contributed to diversified revenue streams and bolstered the company’s resilience. Highlights of the Q3 report included increased market share, more online orders for faster delivery, and reduced prices for Thanksgiving basket items.

Walmart Stock Price – The Uptrend  Has Resumed Again

Walmart’s stock resumed its upward trend, reaching a new record close after a slight pullback last week. Shares climbed 2.80%, gaining $2.30 to end the day at $86.77, although they touched an intraday high of $88.23. The stock is now up an impressive 65% year-over-year, underscoring strong investor confidence.

The positive Q3 data also reflects improving consumer sentiment in the U.S., signaling potential continued economic growth in 2025 and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Technically, Walmart’s stock finds its nearest support at a steepening trend line, followed by key moving averages on the daily chart, which could provide a foundation for further gains.

Walmart Q3 2024 Earnings Highlights

• Adjusted EPS: $0.58, exceeding expectations of $0.53.
• Revenue: $169.50 billion, surpassing forecasts of $167.68 billion.
• US Comparable Sales (Excluding Gas): Up 5.5%, above the anticipated 3.8%.
• FY 2024 Adjusted EPS Guidance: Raised to $2.42-$2.47 (previously $2.35-$2.43), compared to expectations of $2.45.
• Walmart-Only US Stores Comparable Sales (Excluding Gas): Increased 5.35%, beating the projected 3.73%.
• Sam’s Club US Comparable Sales (Excluding Gas): Up 7%, topping the estimated 4.22%.

Insights from Walmart CFO John David Rainey

• Thanksgiving Pricing: Basket costs reduced by 3% compared to last year.
• Customer Demographics: 75% of market share gains are from households earning $100K or more annually.
• Convenience Trends: 30% of online orders included extra fees for expedited 1-3 hour delivery.
• Sales Performance:
  • Halloween and back-to-school sales were positive but not extraordinary.
  • Food category showed low single-digit growth.
  • General merchandise and consumable prices have declined.
  • The overall basket cost remains flat.
• Margin Improvements: Gains in market share across categories, alongside growth in membership income and advertising.

Other Key Observations

• Hurricane Impact: Revenue received a temporary boost from pre-storm stocking, though offset by related expenses.
  • Walmart delivered 178 truckloads of supplies for relief efforts.
• Domestic Sourcing: Two-thirds of products sold are made, grown, or assembled in the U.S.
• Tariff Impacts: Existing tariffs have driven inflation over the past seven years, with additional tariffs likely to exacerbate inflation further.

Outlook

• Business momentum and market share gains reflect strength in consumer demand despite mixed seasonal sales performance.
• Walmart remains optimistic about the future, leveraging convenience trends and strategic initiatives to improve margins and customer retention.