AUDUSD Stall at 0.65 As Minutes Show the RBA

AUDUSD tumbled 5 cents lower falling below 0.65, but reversed higher yesterday and reclaimed that level, as risk sentiment improved on Chinese market recovery.

The RBA November Policy Meeting Minutes

The “Trump trade” unfolded as anticipated, with the US dollar and stock markets strengthening while risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD faced downward pressure. The S&P 500 surged past 6,100 points, reflecting bullish momentum. In this context, the AUD/USD pair came under sustained pressure, hitting a low of 0.6440 late last week.

But signs of reversal emerged as US stock markets experienced a notable pullback toward the end of last week. However, risk sentiment rebounded strongly today, lifting US and Asian stock markets and providing some support to the commodity-linked Australian dollar.

AUD/USD Chart H4 – Stabilizing Above 0.65Chart AUDUSD, H4, 2024.11.19 23:20 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

Besides that, RBA Governor Michele Bullock contributed to the AUD’s recovery by emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to keeping interest rates at restrictive levels until inflation is under control. Despite her assurances, the impact was somewhat muted by disappointing Australian labor market data. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia released its meeting minutes last night, shedding light on its policy outlook and decision-making processes.

Reserve Bank of Australia November Meeting Minutes

  • No Immediate Rate Change: The board saw no pressing need to adjust the cash rate at present.
  • Future Changes Uncertain: Decisions regarding future rate changes remain open, with no options ruled in or out.
  • Forecast Basis: Current forecasts assume the cash rate will remain steady until mid-2025.
  • Rate Change Considerations: The board discussed factors that could prompt either a change in the cash rate or an extended steady period.
  • Policy Tightening Scenarios: Scenarios were explored where policy might need to remain restrictive for longer or even tighten further.
  • Wider Supply Gap: A larger-than-expected supply gap could justify tighter monetary policy.
  • Potential for Rate Increases: Rates may need to rise if the current policy stance is deemed less restrictive than assumed.
  • Inflation Tolerance: The board has minimal tolerance for inflation exceeding forecasts.
  • Rate Cut Conditions: More than one strong quarterly inflation report would be required to justify easing rates.
  • Weak Consumption: Scenarios where weak consumption might justify a rate cut were considered.
  • Labor Market Deterioration: A sharp decline in the labor market or negative forward-looking data could prompt easing.
  • External Risks: The board examined risks from abroad, particularly U.S. economic policy and China’s stimulus efforts.
  • U.S. Economic Uncertainty: Uncertainty over U.S. policy includes risks of lower global growth and higher inflation.
  • China’s Stimulus: Upgraded expectations for China’s economy due to stimulus could have a modest impact on Australia.

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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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