New Record High in Bitcoin After Bullish Break of bearish Channel?

Bitcoin surged early this year, reaching a record high, but retreated since May. However, the retreat seems complete and we might see a new record high in BTC soon, particularly after the break of the descending channel as the price approaches the $70,000 level.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – The Sequence of Lower Highs Is Broken

After placing a new record high above $73K in May, BTC started retreated lower and it was making lower highs. In early August we saw a flash crash in financial markets which sent the crypto market lower as well, with the Bitcoin price falling nearly $20,000 and dipping below $50,000 briefly, where sellers met the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H4 chart.

The 50 weekly SMA held as support and we saw a bounce off that moving average as sellers jumped in.  In September BTC sellers returned, but the 50 weekly SMA held again and Bitcoin retested the top of the channel below $66,000, where it was rejected again. So, the lower highs continued. However last week the price found support at the 20 SMA (green) which was a sign of a bullish breakout, and after the doji candlestick last week, this week followed with a bullish candlestick, which took BTC above the upper trendline of the channel.

Bitcoin Chart Weekly – The 50 SMA Held As Support

Buyers need to break the June high of $71,000 in order to challenge the May peak of over $73,000, the highest since late July when Bitcoin reached $70,000. The recent momentum indicates increasing optimism in the cryptocurrency space and a growing appetite for risk, with the S&P 500 reaching record highs.

BTC Whale Activity and ETF Inflows

In early October, Bitcoin attracted attention due to significant whale activity and rising ETF inflows. Large investors, or “whales,” have invested over $100 billion in Bitcoin, signaling a potential surge in price. Historically, such large transactions have driven Bitcoin prices higher, and this trend seems to be repeating. Simultaneously, Bitcoin ETF inflows have grown, with an additional $250 million entering, reflecting rising interest from conventional investors.

Futures Market and BTC Surge on Positive Risk Sentiment

Bitcoin futures open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit a record $11.6 billion, driven mainly by direct market participants rather than ETF-based futures. This suggests a more mature and stable market, according to Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research.

Broader Crypto Market Impact

Bitcoin’s movement is still influenced by broader market factors, such as risk sentiment, inflation, and central bank policies. With continued buying momentum in stock markets, including record highs in indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, Bitcoin could see further inflows if risk sentiment remains positive.

Bitcoin Live Chart