China Economy Logs Weakest Growth Since Early 2023

China’s economy grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in the third quarter despite an improvement in retail sales as the property market continued to be a major drag on growth.

Gross domestic product expanded 4.6 percent on a yearly basis in the third quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday. This was the weakest growth since the first quarter of 2023.

The rate matched expectations but came in slightly weaker than the 4.7 percent growth posted in the second quarter.

Quarter-on-quarter, GDP climbed 0.9 percent, which was slower than the expected growth of 1.0 percent.

In January to September period, the economy logged an annual growth of 4.8 percent compared to the government’s full year target of around 5 percent.

In September, industrial production surged 5.4 percent after rising 4.5 percent a month ago. This was also better than economists’ forecast of 4.6 percent.

Retail sales growth improved to 3.2 percent from 2.1 percent in the previous month. Sales were forecast to gain 2.5 percent.

In the three months to September, fixed asset investment growth came in at 3.4 percent, the same as in preceding period.

The property market continued to be the biggest drag on growth. Property investment contracted 10.1 percent from a year ago.

The unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent in September, while it was forecast to remain unchanged at 5.3 percent.

Capital Economics’ economist Zichun Huang said a boost from the fiscal stimulus should help narrowly meet the annual growth target this year and support activity in the coming quarter.

However, this won’t stop growth from slowing again by the end of next year, the economist noted.

Earlier today, China’s major state-owned commercial banks reduced its deposit interest rates by 25 basis points.

Recently, Beijing unveiled a slew of fiscal stimulus measures and loosened restrictions on home-buying. The People’s Bank of China also reduced major interest rates and offered more funds to boost lending.

Markets are awaiting detailed plan of fiscal stimulus measures announced last Saturday. Although the government didn’t provide specific figures regarding the size of stimulus, it suggested an expansion of the budget deficit next year.