China Exports To Remain Strong In Near-Term: Capital Economics

China’s exports are set to stay strong in the near-term, underpinned by gain in export competitiveness, economists at Capital Economics said.

Data released on Monday showed that exports growth eased sharply to 2.4 percent in September from 8.7 percent in August. At the same time, imports grew 0.3 percent on a yearly basis, slightly slower than the 0.5 percent increase seen in the prior month.

As a result, the trade surplus declined to $81.7 billion from $91.02 billion in August, the customs office reported.

With volumes still growing at a double-digit pace, exports growth remained resilient despite a sharp slowdown, Zichun Huang and Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics said.

In the near-term, exports growth will be strong with a lower real effective exchange rate allowing exports to capture global market share. However, growing trade barriers are likely to become an increasing constraint further ahead, damping longer-term export growth, they noted.

Economists expect import to rebound in the short run as faster fiscal spending drives up demand for industrial commodities.