Nonfarm Payrolls Data Could Shift the Stock Market in This Way

US Nonfarm Payrolls data is coming in later today and is expected to show an increase for September. That could impact the mostly flat stock market in a big way.

If the data shows an increase for last month, that would be very similar to the increase from August, where Nonfarm Payrolls jumped by 142,000. The expectation for September is that the data will show an increase of 140,000.

Right now, the US stock market is just about even with where it was the previous day, with the Nasdaq Composite down by a marginal 0.04%. The S&P 500 is down just 0.17%, and the Dow Jones has dropped the most with a decrease of 0.44%.

The expectation is that a positive Nonfarm Payrolls report would give the market a boost, spurring investor activity across all three stock market indices. However, there is a negative factor that could hold the market back and balance out any positive news from the economic sector.

The Middle East’s Effect on the US Stock Market

Recent attacks in the Middle East in Lebanon and Israel could spell disaster for the stock market. Already, the stock indices have fallen as a result of increased activity there over the weekend. We have seen a relatively low week in stocks because of the news, and that may continue. There looks to be no indication of the attack slowing down or the situation improving anytime soon.

There will likely be more attacks to come from the Israeli side and perhaps with some help from the United States. When asked about US support for Israeli strikes on Iran oil facilities, US President Joe Biden gave some indication that such action was being considered, but yet he also gave nothing definite.

So, while positive data from Nonfarm Payrolls could help the stock market, that report probably will not be enough to get the market back to where it was before last weekend when Middle East attacks escalated.

If the data is promising, though, then it could support further interest rate cuts from the US central bank. That may mean a further 50 basis points being cut, which is likely to spur market growth like it did recently with the last cut.