Japan Core CPI Inflation Ticks Lower, USDJPY Returns Below 144

Last week, USDJPY experienced a sharp 22-cent drop, hitting its lowest levels since July 2023. However, the pair has since started to rebound. This decline wasn’t driven solely by a weakening USD; the Japanese yen (JPY) has also gained strength. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda noted that speculative positions in the yen, which had been building since the onset of COVID in 2020, have largely unwound.

He suggested that these speculative trades contributed to the August market sell-off and that the upward surge in USD/JPY until July was primarily due to these positions. While Ueda mentioned that the unwinding might be nearing its end, yesterday’s bearish reversal near the resistance zone at 144.50 signals that more correction may be possible. His comments may be encouraging traders to avoid speculative opportunities on the yen.

USD/JPY Chart Weekly – Stalling at the 100

Since making a new yearly low last week, briefly falling below the critical 140 level, USD/JPY has been rising due to improving risk appetite. This boosted safe-haven demand for the yen, with the pair rising 5 cents following the FOMC’s 50 basis point rate cut. However, this upward momentum was short-lived, as USD/JPY has dropped over 1 cent yesterday after the failure to break above the 100 weekly SMA (green) from its recent high this week.

Bank of Japan Core CPI Inflation Report for August

• BOJ Core CPI Year on year came at 1.8% as expected
• Previous core PI YoY was 2.1%

USD/JPY Live Chart