EUR/USD Forecast: 1.1215 Resistance in Focus Amid German Data and U.S. Confidence Drop

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.11872, up 0.07%, following the release of mixed economic data from Europe and the United States.

Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index fell to 85.4 in September, missing forecasts of 86.1 and indicating a weaker business sentiment. The decline in confidence in Germany’s economic outlook, along with a drop in Belgium’s NBB Business Climate to -13.3, reflects growing concerns about the Eurozone’s economic stability.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines, Weighs on Dollar

In the U.S., the Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, reflecting reduced optimism among American consumers. The drop in confidence comes alongside other concerning data, such as the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which slumped to -21, signaling ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Adding to the dollar’s struggles, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a modest 5.9% year-on-year increase, below expectations of 6.5%, indicating a potential cooling in the housing market. These factors have collectively weighed on the dollar, benefiting the EUR/USD pair as it nears key technical levels.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

The EUR/USD is currently consolidating near its recent highs, trading just below the $1.11983 pivot point. A break above this level could signal further bullish momentum, with immediate resistance at $1.12153 and additional targets at $1.12309 and $1.12485.

• Immediate Support: $1.11618
• Next Support Levels: $1.11509, $1.11350
• 50-Day EMA: $1.11418
• RSI: 65 (Bullish, but near overbought territory)

For short-term strategies, a buy limit order at $1.11770 could offer a favorable entry point, with a take-profit target at $1.12153 and a stop-loss at $1.11626.

If resistance holds, profit-taking could occur as the RSI approaches overbought levels.