CHF to USD Rate Little Changed After Swiss GDP, Inflation Data

The USD to CHF rate has been quite volatile, with USD/CHF falling more than 6 cents in the last two months, but it bounced above 0.85 yesterday. One of the reasons might have been comments from the SNB chairman Jordan, who said that the SNB is not happy with the pace CHF is gaining strength, which markets took as a threat of intervention.

In 2024 so far, USD/CHF has completed a round trip, initially gaining nearly 8 cents as the Swiss franc weakened due to two consecutive interest rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). However, since reversing in May, the pair has been in a sharp downtrend, losing all those gains. This decline has been driven by global market uncertainty and weakness in the US dollar. In the past three trading days, USD/CHF has experienced a solid bounce, indicating some recovery.

USD/CHF Chart Daily – The Climb stopped at the 20 SMA Yesterday

However, this upward momentum has stalled, with the price struggling to break above the 20 SMA (gray) on the daily chart. This level is now acting as a key resistance point, and a decisive move above it could signal a continuation of the recovery, while failure to do so may suggest a resumption of the broader downtrend. Investors will be watching closely to see if the pair can gain further traction or if it will face renewed selling pressure.

Despite a strong 2.7% jump in Switzerland’s retail sales for July, the Swiss franc (CHF) showed little response and continued to decline, mirroring the behavior of the Japanese Yen. Early this morning, Switzerland released its Q2 GDP report and the CPI inflation data for August. These reports are critical as they may influence the market’s outlook on the SNB’s future monetary policy actions.

Swiss CPI Inflation Released by the Federal Statistics Office – 3 September 2024

• Switzerland August CPI YoY +1.1% vs +1.2% expected
• July CPI +1.3%
• Core CPI YoY +1.1%
• Prior core CPI was +1.1%

Swiss Q2 GDP Report

• Switzerland Q2 GDP +0.7% vs +0.5% q/q expected
• Q1 GDP was +0.5%

USD/CHF Live Chart