USD Lower After Positive Jobless Claims, Durable Good Orders

Today we had a number of data releases from the US, which were quite positive, but EUR/USD is trading 30 pips higher, after all. This pair tested both sides today, mirroring the fluctuations in the stock market. The Q2 US GDP, Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods Orders if you remove the auto subsector,  were all good, showing a stable economy in the US, but the USD has ended lower.

EUR/USD Chart H1 – Buyers Must Push Above MAs

The pair’s daily low print comes at 1.0828. Yesterday, the price briefly dipped below this retracement level but then bounced back. This indicates some hesitation among buyers and sellers around this level, with sellers having a brief opportunity to push the price lower but failing to maintain the momentum.

The latest move has seen the price climb, setting a new high for the day at 1.864. This upward push is facing the descending 100-hour moving average (green) though, which was also yesterday’s session high at 1.0866. For the bullish sentiment to strengthen, the price needs to continue rising above these levels, particularly surpassing 1.0870s, which acted as a temporary support level early this week.

US Weekly Unemployment Claims

US Advance Durable Goods for June 2024

• Durable Goods Orders (June 2024): Reported a significant decline of -6.6%, much lower than the expected +0.3%. This is the steepest drop since April 2020, largely influenced by the volatile transportation sector. The previous month’s figure was 0.1%.
• Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation: Increased by +0.5%, outperforming the expected +0.2%. This suggests some underlying strength in sectors outside of transportation. The prior month recorded a 0.1% increase.
• Durable Goods Orders Excluding Defense: Fell sharply by -7.0%, compared to the previous month’s figure, which was revised to -0.2%.
• Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft: Rose by +1.0%, significantly above the expected +0.2%. The previous month was revised to a -0.9% decrease from an initially reported -0.6%.
• Federal Reserve Projections: Indicate a shift, with the end-of-year projections showing -69 basis points, a change from the 72 basis points prior to the GDP and durable goods releases.

EUR/USD Live Chart