Solana and XRP Surge Amid Trump’s Rising Electoral Prospects

This past week has witnessed a notable surge in the cryptocurrency market that extends beyond the usual frontrunners, Bitcoin and Ether. Solana’s SOL token has increased by 22%, while Ripple’s XRP has seen a 25% jump, with their performance nearly doubling that of Bitcoin and Ether.

These increases are primarily attributed to the heightened electoral chances of Donald Trump. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and PredictIt now show a 63% and 64% probability, respectively, of Trump’s presidency.

This uptick in odds follows the Republican National Convention and a recent assassination attempt on Trump, factors that have significantly influenced market sentiment.

Political Dynamics Influencing Market Sentiment

The market’s reaction aligns closely with the political landscape, particularly as Trump’s odds in the upcoming election improve. According to Rennick Palley, founding partner at Stratos, “The recent surge is largely driven by the improved market sentiment and the perception that a Trump administration might not classify these tokens as securities.”

The increase in Trump’s electoral odds, especially in the wake of a disrupted campaign following an attack, has shifted the focus of the Democrat’s campaign strategy and sparked debate among Republicans who blame President Joe Biden’s rhetoric for the violence.

Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, stated, “This isn’t an isolated incident… This rhetoric led directly to the assassination attempt on President Trump.”

Trump’s VP choice was a never-Trumper, Catholic, married to a Hindu.

J.D. Vance an Ohio Republican senator known for once likening Donald Trump to “America’s Hitler” has been selected as Trump’s vice presidential running mate. pic.twitter.com/gmSxwDOLh2

— Muslim Network TV (@MuslimNetworkTV) July 18, 2024

The ‘Trump Trade’ and Its Implications for Crypto Regulation

The crypto industry is closely monitoring the potential regulatory changes that a Republican administration could bring. Trump has previously promoted an America-first approach to Bitcoin mining and supported cryptocurrency donations to his campaign.

His upcoming speech at Bitcoin 2024 is expected to further outline his stance on cryptocurrency regulation. Meanwhile, the vice-presidential candidate owns a significant amount of Bitcoin, enhancing the administration’s favorable view towards flexible crypto regulations.

With #Bitcoin supporter J.D. Vance now his running mate, #Trump seems intent on making #Bitcoin and #crypto a signature issue. He is scheduled to give a keynote speech at the upcoming Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville next week.

— Crypto Fomo (@CryptoF0MO) July 19, 2024

Moreover, the SEC’s upcoming decision on Solana ETFs by next March, without a Solana futures market, hinges significantly on Trump’s electoral success, suggesting that these ETF applications are betting heavily on his victory.

Wider Market Trends

Apart from political influences, Solana’s attractiveness has also been boosted by its popularity within the memecoin sector, which tends to experience large fluctuations. This week alone, several Solana-based memecoins saw substantial gains.

Additionally, the DeFi sector on Solana has tripled in value since the beginning of the year, reaching over $5 billion. “SOL’s appeal isn’t just from meme-driven interest but is now underpinned by significant growth in DeFi activities,” noted Alice Liu, research lead at CoinMarketCap.

Meanwhile, XRP’s rise is partly fueled by anticipated legal resolutions with the SEC, suggesting a potentially positive outcome for Ripple, as noted by Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse and several legal experts.