AUDUSD Heads Down to the Range After Australian Employment

July’s Trends Reversal in AUD/USD and Recent Developments

In the first two weeks of July, AUD/USD displayed bullish momentum as the USD weakened due to a slowdown in the US economy and consumer inflation. Markets anticipated that the FED would cut interest rates twice this year. Conversely, the RBA maintained a firm hawkish stance, benefiting the Australian dollar. However, sellers returned this week, pushing the price back near the top of the range, indicated by the 200 daily SMA (purple).

Today, Australia’s employment data release was expected to significantly impact pricing. Key technical levels can help forecast potential market reactions. On the downside, the next critical area is the range’s resistance around 0.67, aligning with the rising 100-day moving average (red) on the daily chart.

AUD/USD Chart Weekly – Heading for the 100 SMA

The Australian labor market data was projected to show an addition of 20K jobs in June, compared to 39.7K in the previous month, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% from 4.0%. This data is not expected to impact policy expectations significantly, as the focus remains on the Australian Q2 CPI report due on July 31st.

Australian June Employment Report

Unemployment Rate

• June: 4.1% (vs. 4.0% expected) – Slight increase indicating a small rise in joblessness.
• May: 4.0%

Employment Change

• June: 50.2K (vs. 20K expected) – Significantly higher than expected, indicating strong job growth.
• May: 39.7K

Full-Time Employment

• June: 43.3K (vs. 41.7K previously) – Modest increase, showing a rise in stable, long-term jobs.

Part-Time Employment

• June: 6.2K (vs. 2.1K expected) – Higher than expected, suggesting a flexible job market.

Participation Rate

• June: 66.9% (vs. 66.8% expected) – Slightly higher, indicating more people entering the workforce.
• May: 66.8%

AUD/USD Live Chart