NZD to USD Bounces Higher as New Zealand Inflation Cools

The NZD to USD pair has largely traded within a range for most of 2024, but traders are now pushing the price below this range as fundamentals weigh. For several months, the price was trapped between moving averages on the daily chart, influenced by the similar monetary policies of the Fed and RBNZ. However, China’s sluggish recovery has exerted additional pressure on the Kiwi, while the RBNZ made some dovish remarks in its recent meeting.

The highs have been progressively lowering, with June’s peak reaching 0.6220 and July’s high touching the 0.6150s. Following the RBNZ’s recent decision to maintain interest rates with a dovish outlook, the price dropped by 70 pips, bringing NZD/USD down to 0.6065. Moving averages had been providing support on the daily chart, but sellers made another push to the downside yesterday, spurred by stronger-than-expected June retail sales in the United States.

NZD/USD Chart Daily – Sellers Testing MAs at the Bottom of the Range

Early this morning, the CPI inflation report from New Zealand was released, showing a predicted decrease from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2 of 2024. Q1 CPI slowed more than expected to 0.4%, as did headline CPI YoY, but the Kiwi ended up bouncing higher off the 100 SMA (green), so we don’t have a break of 0.60 yet.

New Zealand CPI Inflation Report

• New Zealand Q2 CPI: 0.4% q/q vs 0.5% expected
• CPI YoY: 3.3% vs 3.4% expected
• Non-tradables CPI: +0.9% q/q and +5.4% y/y (prior 5.8%)
• Tradeable inflation: 0.3% y/y (prior 1.6%)

New Zealand’s Q2 CPI registered at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below the forecast of 0.5%. The year-on-year CPI stood at 3.3%, just shy of the anticipated 3.4%. Non-tradable inflation, which measures the prices of goods and services not exposed to foreign competition and indicates domestic demand and supply conditions, came in at +0.9% q/q and +5.4% y/y, a decrease from the previous 5.8%.

Despite being insulated from direct foreign competition, the inputs for non-tradable goods and services can still be influenced by global markets. Tradeable inflation, reflecting the prices of goods and services affected by foreign markets, dropped to 0.3% y/y from the prior 1.6%.

NZD/USD Live Chart