Oil prices edged higher in Friday’s Asian trading, reaching over two-month highs driven by optimism for increased summer demand and potential supply disruptions.

Brent oil futures for September slightly increased by 0.1% to $87.55 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also climbed 0.1% to $83.14 a barrel by 20:40 ET. This upward trend is underpinned by a weakening dollar and the anticipation of U.S. interest rate cuts, which have bolstered oil markets significantly.

Weekly Trends and Geopolitical Influences on Oil Markets

The oil market is on track for a fourth consecutive week of gains, with prices trading up between 3% and 4% this week alone. The surge is largely attributed to heightened expectations of robust crude demand during the busy summer travel season, particularly in the U.S., where record travel activity is forecasted for the Independence Day week. Analysts at ANZ noted, “Market sentiment has been buoyed by strong mobility indicators and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.” These factors have led traders to price a higher risk premium into oil costs as the standoff between Israel and Hezbollah continues without signs of resolution.

Moreover, significant drawdowns in U.S. oil inventories have been recorded as fuel retailers stocked up in anticipation of holiday travel. This inventory reduction has reinforced the bullish sentiment in the crude oil market.

Challenges and Economic Indicators Impacting Oil Prices

Despite the positive momentum, several factors may temper further gains in oil prices. Recent data indicated that OPEC members had ramped up production, suggesting potential easing in market tightness later this year. Moreover, concerns about slowing economic growth in major oil-consuming nations like the U.S. and China persist, especially following disappointing non-manufacturing PMI data.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on U.S. interest rates introduces a note of caution into the market. With key U.S. nonfarm payroll data pending, which could offer further insights into the economic landscape, traders remain cautious.

Technical Outlook for WTI Crude Oil

As for the technical perspective, WTI crude oil (USOIL) is currently trading at $83.29, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.28%. According to the 2-hour chart, the pivot point stands at $83.12, with immediate resistance levels at $83.75, $84.31, and $84.89.

Support levels are found at $82.40, $81.89, and $81.39. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.80 and the 200-day EMA at $80.93 both suggest a bullish trend as long as prices remain above the pivot point. However, a break below this critical level could initiate a sharp downward trend.