AUD USD was stuck in a 1-cent range for more than two months, but we got a bullish break yesterday, after the soft ISM services from the US which sent the USD 60 pips lower. The RBA continues to maintain the hawkish bias, while markets expect the FED rate cut odds to increase as the US economy keeps showing increasing weakness.

The strong retail sales in May from Australia which showed a 0.6% increase yesterday also helped keep the sentiment positive for the AUD. Retail sales in Australia rose by 0.6% month-over-month in May 2024, surpassing the expected increase of 0.2%. This follows a modest gain of 0.1% in April.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the strong results were primarily driven by cautious shoppers taking advantage of early end-of-financial-year promotions and sales events. They noted that retail businesses are heavily relying on discounts and sales to stimulate discretionary spending, which had been subdued in recent months.

AUD/USD Chart Daily – Sticking to the Top of the Range Lately

Australian Goods Trade Balance for June

AUD/USD Live Chart