Forex Signals Brief November 24: Will US PMIs Show A Positive Surprise Too?
With the US being onThanksgiving holiday, trading desks were operating lightly. Flash manufacturing and services PMI figures were issued during the EU session,with Germany and the EU beating estimates in both manufacturing and services PMI statistics, but France underperformed in both sectors.
Additionally, following a court ruling earlier this week Germany’s finance minister Lindner declared that money intended for pandemic recovery could not be used to pay other government programs, indicating the government will suspend borrowing limitations for this year.
The UK data also showed improvement in both manufacturing and services PMI,with the latter coming out of contraction. In the Middle East, plans for a truce/hostage release appear to be underway which has helped improve the sentiment, so let’s see how it goes.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today starts with the Japanese Core CPI inflation YoY which is predicted to rise to 3.0% from 2.8% previously, while no consensus exists for the other metrics at the time of writing. This inflation report will not likely affect the Bank of Japan unless there are major surprises. The Bank of Japan is focused on wage growth, with the June 2024 spring wage discussions in mind.
The day following Thanksgiving is another holiday in the United States, with markets closing early, but we will also receive the manufacturing and services PMI figures for October, which are expected to have some decent impact on financial markets. The US Manufacturing PMI is projected to fall into contraction to 49.8 points from 50.0 points in October, while the Services PMI is expected to dip to 50.3 points this month from 50.6 points previously.
Besides that, today we will also see the retail sales report from Canada, with core sales expected to turn negative in September and show a 0.3% decline after increasing by 0.1% in the previous month, while headline sales are expected to remain flat at 0.0% after falling by 0.1% in August.
Yesterday the volatility was low as US markets were closed for the long weekend holiday, so most assets traded in a tight range. We opened several trading signals, mainly from the day before and early in the Asian session yesterday, but only two closed in profit, while the rest remained open. Although the price of Gold reached the take profit target but didn’t close our signal, so followers should have booked profit on that signal as well.
GOLD Remains Supported MAs
Gold prices rose sharply last month as a result of the Gaza conflict, surpassing the important $2,000 level, but economic instability is again keeping gold in demand. Gold fell earlier this month as Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions eased. However, following last week’s poor US inflation data, gold buyers seized control and attitude altered. Buyers appear apprehensive near the $2,000 mark, following yet another retreat yesterday after the barrier was broken. Despite the fact that the 20 SMA is still acting as support, we opted to open a buy Gold signal at this moving average yesterday.
XAU/USD – 240 minute chart
- Gold Buy Signal
- Entry Price: $1,990.71
- Stop Loss: $1,976.71
- Take Profit: $1,998.71
GBP/USD Buyers Return the Price to the 100 SMA
GBP/USD has maintained its strong momentum today, climbing to the 1.2570s in the European session on the back of higher UK PMI statistics, however it has since retreated and is presently trading around the 1.2540 range during Thursday’s US session, just shy of its best level since September 6.
Earlier this week, GBP/USD was testing the 100 SMA (green) on the daily chart, but retraced lower as buyers failed to break above this moving average. Now, this currency pair is retesting the same moving average, which it previously penetrated above, but the price has retreated below it again, so let’s see what happens.
GBP/USD – Daily chart
Cryptocurrency Update
BITCOIN Forming a Resistance Zone Below $39,000
The cryptocurrency market remained turbulent last week, with Bitcoin nearly reaching $35,000 after a dip and then climbing to nearly $38,000 after a surge. We’re still waiting for an ETF announcement. Since the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a Bitcoin spot ETF, a more optimistic cryptocurrency climate has continued to benefit Bitcoin. As a result, this cryptocurrency rose to $35,000 late last month before falling and weakening. Buyers seized the initiative and drove the price up to more than $36,000, while losing little ground. Buyers hesitated just below last month’s high of $38,000 and retreated lower, but buyers arrived precisely at the 50 SMA (yellow), indicating that the trend is still bullish.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
ETHEREUM Reversing at the 20 Daily SMA
After a few encouraging developments for the digital market, Ethereum gained more than $300 and surged above $1,800 thanks to the bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. It’s great that the zone around $1,700 turned into support, and it appears that the 50 SMA (yellow) has done the same. Earlier this month, the price of ETH/USD broke above $2,000, signaling that buyers are in control and that we should have taken profits on our prior Ethereum signal. However, given that the 20 SMA is serving as support, we choose to open another ETH signal following the lower retreat of last week.
Ethereum – Daily minute Chart
- ETH Buy Signal
- Entry Price: $1,947.38
- Stop Loss: $1,490
- Take Profit: $2,500
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