Forex Signals Brief for April 25: Can Richmond Manufacturing Surprise Today?

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Last week, we saw some volatility as the economic data from the US came in mixed, particularly manufacturing. This left traders uncertain about the future path of the FED regarding interest rate hikes. Yesterday we saw a continuation of contradicting data. The was slow to start the new week as traders exercised caution following mixed economic figures and price action last week.

Major currencies experienced limited action, although the US dollar began slipping lower after the Dallas FED manufacturing index fell to new lows, following the strong manufacturing PMI numbers last Friday. However, USD/JPY saw gains despite Treasury yields and the USD being slightly lower, indicating that risk sentiment was slightly positive. The US retail sales for March were revised higher, but that wasn’t enough to turn the USD bullish.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today started slowly again, with some countries such as Australia and Italy being on a bank holiday. The BOJ Core CPI inflation report was released early this morning from Japan, showing a slight slowdown last month. The economic data during the European session is light, although in the US session, we have the CB Consumer Confidence to be released, New Home Sales for April and the Richmond Manufacturing Index which might offer another surprise.

Forex Signals Update

Last week the USD started strong on the first day, while this week the Buck ended up lower on the first day. The sentiment was slightly positive and most risk assets pushed higher, which caught us on the wrong side with two losing signals, while four more signals remained open.

Are the Lows Getting Lower in GOLD?

Gold is showing bearish signs after surging above $2,000 earlier this month. It reversed back down falling below that level where it closed last week. We saw a retrace higher yesterday but highs have been getting lower during retraces higher and moving averages are acting as resistance so we decided to open a sell Gold signal.

XAU/USD – 60 minute chart

The Reversal in WTI Oil Stopps at the 100 SMA

Last week, smaller moving averages like the 20 SMA (shown in gray) acted as resistance for crude Oil on the H1 chart as the trend turned bearish. However, yesterday we observed a retracement upward. While the 20 SMA and 50 SMA (in yellow) were breached, the climb halted at the 100 SMA (in green), which was serving as resistance. Following a positive revision in US retail sales for March by the Commerce Department, we decided to open a sell Oil signal.

US Crude Oil – 60 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

The 50 SMA Holding in BITCOIN for Now

Bitcoin has been retreating lower, with cryptocurrencies being in a retreating period right now. BTC/USD has returned back below $30,000 and yesterday it tested $27,000 lows. Although, the 50 SMA (yellow) has been holding as support, so let’s see if we’ll see a bullish reversal from here.

BTC/USD – 240 minute chart

Looking to Buy ETHEREUM

Last week, Ethereum experienced a steep decline after some decent buying momentum in the previous week and which sent it above the $2,000 level. This came after a period of consolidation the week before. Our buy signal for ETH/USD hit the take profit target as it moved above $2,100. But, the retreat has sent the price below $1,900 now and we are looking for an end to this retreat to open a buy Ethereum signal.