EURUSD Heads to 2023 Low After Breaking Below 1.05

EURUSD finally broke below 1.05 today in the third attempt, heading to 2023 lows at 1.0440-50, which would open the door for parity, as the ECB and FED policies diverge.

Global markets showed limited alignment during the European morning trade, leading to a somewhat unsettled day. As the US session began, the dollar gained some momentum but remained mixed overall. Oil prices, reflecting heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, continued to capture market attention.

USD and Stocks Jump in the US Session

In the US session, economic data provided further evidence of a resilient economy and us stock market turned positive from being down early in the pre-open. Existing home sales for October showed an increase, while unemployment claims came in lower than expected, reinforcing the strength of the labor market. These indicators added to the dollar’s support, which has been bolstered in recent months by strong economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts.

The EUR/USD pair has faced significant pressure as the dollar’s strength persists. Over the past two months, the greenback has been propelled by robust economic performance and a Republican victory in the US elections, which has revitalized market optimism. As a result, the euro has dropped sharply, with the EUR/USD falling 7 cents late last week to below the 1.05 level, its lowest point since October 2023. Although the 1.05 support level held briefly, the pair now edges closer to the next critical support range around 1.0440-50, signaling potential for further declines.

US Existing Home Sales – October Data

Overall Sales Data:

• Sales: 3.96M (annualized), higher than the expected 3.93M.
• Previous month revised to 3.83M (from 3.84M).
• Monthly change: +3.4% (prior revised to -1.0%).
• Year-over-year change: +2.9%.

Market Conditions:

• 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 7.05%, up from 6% in September.
• Inventory: 4.2 months, slightly down from 4.3 months last month but higher than 3.6 months a year ago.
• Median Price: $407,200, up 4% YoY; marks the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
• All-Cash Sales: 27%, historically elevated.
• First-Time Buyers: 27%, well below the historical average of 40%.

Regional Breakdown:

Northeast:

• Sales: +2.2% MoM, annualized rate at 470,000 (flat YoY).
• Median Price: $472,900, up 7.6% YoY.

Midwest:

• Sales: +6.7% MoM, annualized rate at 950,000 (+1.1% YoY).
• Median Price: $305,300, up 7.2% YoY.

South:

• Sales: +2.9% MoM, annualized rate at 1.77M (+2.3% YoY).
• Median Price: $361,200, up 0.9% YoY.

West:

• Sales: +1.3% MoM, annualized rate at 770,000 (+8.5% YoY).
• Median Price: $627,700, up 4.4% YoY.

EUR/USD Live Chart