GBP/USD Enters Oversold Zone: Bullish Bounce-Off Expected?

The GBP/USD is trading around $1.2902, attempting a recovery after a steep sell-off earlier this week. The pair recently broke below a key ascending channel, highlighting a bearish shift in sentiment.

Immediate support rests at $1.2892, a level aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from its previous high, while additional support is seen at $1.2846. A sustained move below these levels would likely open the door for further downside, with next key support at $1.2813.

On the upside, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.2929, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Breaking above this could allow for a further rise to $1.2957, close to the 50-day EMA, currently positioned at $1.2957, and finally, stronger resistance at $1.2971. These levels are significant, as a sustained move above the 50-day EMA would indicate renewed bullish sentiment, especially if buyers can push GBP/USD above $1.2971.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 40.06, suggesting mild oversold conditions but not yet signaling a reversal. This reading, combined with the recent downward momentum, implies that a bounce could be short-lived unless the broader trend changes.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The bearish bias is reinforced by the 50-day EMA ($1.2957) and 200-day EMA ($1.2943), both hovering above the current price, acting as formidable barriers to the upside.

In summary, GBP/USD remains under pressure as long as it trades below $1.2929. Should sellers maintain control, the pair is likely to test the lower support levels in the coming sessions. Conversely, a move above $1.2971 could suggest that buyers are regaining traction, though the upside may be limited without a broader shift in market sentiment.

Key Takeaways:

  • Immediate Support: $1.2892, with next levels at $1.2846 and $1.2813.

  • Resistance Levels: $1.2929 and $1.2971 remain critical for a reversal.

  • RSI: At 40.06, mildly oversold but lacking strong reversal signs.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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