USD to NZD Consolidates above 0.60 on Positive Signs from China

The NZDUSD exchange rate has been on a downward trend since early October, and this week it continued its slide, dipping below the 0.61 level as it approaches the initial target of 0.60. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent 0.50% rate cut pushed the price through 0.61, though it closed last week slightly higher.

This week, however, the pair dropped into a swing range between 0.6039 and 0.61, with sellers managing to push it below the 0.61 threshold. For the downtrend to gain more traction, the price needs to dip below 0.6030. If it does, the next target will be 0.60, just above a significant support zone at 0.5850, which aligns with the lows reached in April and August this year.

NZD/USD Chart Weekly – The 50 SMA Has Been Broken

After strong retail sales data for September and a decline in unemployment claims last week, the US dollar’s bullish momentum is easing, though buyers still maintain control due to the solid economic data. The NZD/USD pair has declined over three cents since the start of the month, initially stalling at 0.61 last week before resuming its slide this week. Concerns over China’s economy have added to the pressure, as markets have been disappointed by the limited effectiveness of the stimulus measures implemented so far.

China GDP and Industrial Production Report for September

• Retail Sales (YoY):

  • Rose by +3.2%, exceeding the expected +2.5%.
  • Previous month (August) retail sales were up by +2.1%, indicating a stronger consumer recovery.

• Industrial Production (YoY):

  • Increased by +5.4%, beating expectations of +4.6%.
  • August’s industrial production was +4.5%, showing continued growth in factory output.

• Q3 GDP (YoY):

  • Grew by +4.6%, slightly above the expected +4.5%.
  • Reflects steady economic performance despite challenges.

• Q3 GDP (QoQ):

  • Expanded by +0.9%, falling short of the +1.0% forecast.
  • Suggests quarterly growth slowed slightly compared to expectations.

• September New House Prices (YoY):

  • Declined by -5.7%, worsening from the prior month’s -5.3%.
  • Signals continued weakness in the property market.

China’s economic performance in September showed resilience with stronger retail sales and industrial production, reflecting solid domestic demand and manufacturing output. However, the housing market continues to struggle with declining new house prices, and quarterly GDP growth came in just below expectations. This mixed data highlights areas of recovery and lingering challenges in China’s economy.

NZD/USD Live Chart