AUD/USD Daily Forecast: Eyeing $0.6767 Resistance Ahead of FOMC Meeting
Arslan Butt•Tuesday, September 17, 2024•3 min read
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.67478, down 0.13% for the day as it consolidates just above a key pivot point of $0.6734.
Despite facing minor selling pressure, the pair has maintained an overall positive trend, supported by crucial technical levels. With upcoming Australian employment data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the market is poised for potential volatility in the coming days.
Key Technical Levels for AUD/USD: Resistance and Support
On the technical front, AUD/USD has shown resilience despite the slight dip. Immediate resistance stands at $0.6767, which has so far held as a barrier for bullish momentum. A clear break above this level could pave the way for further upside, with the next resistance levels at $0.6793 and $0.6816. These levels are expected to present more significant opposition to buyers, making them crucial points to watch for anyone tracking the pair’s movements.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.6698, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently providing a solid floor. Should the price fall below this level, it could trigger a deeper pullback, with the next support levels sitting at $0.6667 and $0.6635. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64, indicating mild bullish momentum but suggesting that the pair is approaching overbought territory. This signals that while the trend remains positive, the pair may pause or face increased selling pressure before the next move higher.
For traders, a break above $0.6734 could offer an attractive buying opportunity, with potential targets around $0.67832. It’s recommended to maintain a stop-loss near $0.66962 to manage risk, especially given the possibility of a short-term pullback.
Key Resistance Levels: $0.6767, $0.6793, $0.6816
Key Support Levels: $0.6698, $0.6667, $0.6635
RSI: 64, indicating mild bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory
Upcoming Events Impacting AUD/USD
Several key economic events this week will likely impact AUD/USD. The Federal Reserve will announce its Federal Funds Rate decision on Wednesday, September 18, with the market widely expecting a 5.50% rate. Additionally, the Fed will release its economic projections and host a press conference, all of which could influence the U.S. Dollar’s strength and, in turn, the performance of AUD/USD.
Closer to home, Australian economic data will also play a crucial role. On Thursday, September 19, the Employment Change report is expected to show a 26.4K increase in jobs, a drop from the previous month’s 58.2K. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.2%. Any deviations from these numbers could generate significant moves in AUD/USD, especially if the data indicates stronger or weaker economic conditions than anticipated.
Tuesday, Sep 17: U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales
Wednesday, Sep 18: U.S. Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Economic Projections
Thursday, Sep 19: Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with traders eyeing a potential upward break in AUD/USD if key resistance levels are breached. Much will depend on the tone of the FOMC meeting and the upcoming Australian employment data. A dovish Fed and strong Australian employment figures could drive further gains for the Australian Dollar, pushing it above $0.6767 and possibly testing the $0.6816 resistance level.
However, weaker-than-expected employment data or a hawkish Fed stance could put downward pressure on the pair. In that case, traders should watch for breaks below $0.6698, which could lead to a deeper correction toward $0.6635.
Conclusion
AUD/USD is consolidating above key support, awaiting both domestic and international economic events. A break above $0.6767 could signal a continuation of the upward trend, while a fall below $0.6698 would likely lead to further declines. Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming employment data from Australia and the FOMC meeting for clues on the pair’s next move.
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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