Crude oil prices have been highly volatile this week, fluctuating within a 1-cent range, with the 200-day SMA providing critical support just above $80. On Monday, WTI crude rebounded approximately 100 pips from this support level but declined again yesterday as the US dollar gained strength. Despite the increase in EIA inventories, oil prices are making a recovery today, driven by optimism surrounding summer demand and concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East.

Both Brent oil futures and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude have surged 1% today, with WTI climbing above the $80 per barrel mark. This upward movement is buoyed by expectations of higher fuel consumption during the summer months and geopolitical worries.

WTI Oil Chart Daily – The 200 Is Acting As Support Now

However, despite the favorable demand forecast, the upside is limited as well, as investors are cautious about potential future oil price increase. There is a prevailing concern that rising interest rates could curtail gasoline consumption by slowing economic growth. The US Federal Reserve’s persistent focus on controlling inflation adds to the market’s apprehension, making the outlook for oil prices particularly uncertain.

EIA Crude Oil Inventory

• EIA US weekly crude oil inventories: +3,591K vs -2,850K expected
  • Prior was -2,547K
• Gasoline stocks: +2,654K vs -1,024K expected
• Refinery utilization: -1.3% vs +0.1% expected
• Distillates: -377K vs -1,050K expected
• Production: unchanged at 13.2 mbpd

The EIA’s latest report on US weekly crude oil inventories revealed a significant build of 3,591K barrels, contrasting sharply with the expected drawdown of 2,850K barrels. Gasoline stocks increased by 2,654K barrels, again diverging from the anticipated decrease of 1,024K barrels. The API inventory numbers released late yesterday further corroborate the bearish outlook:

API Crude Inventory

• Crude inventories increased by 914K barrels.
• Gasoline inventories rose by 3,843K barrels.
• Distillate inventories decreased by 1,178K barrels.

WTI Live Chart