Forex Signals Brief Feb 26: PCE and CPI Inflation Highlighting the Week
Last week’s economic calendar was notably quiet, and while the FX market appeared relatively stable at closing, there were underlying movements that hinted at activity. There was noticeable selling pressure on the USD and the JPY, while risk currencies such as the Euro and the NZD found some decent bids.
The surge in Nvidia stock after some impressive earnings which were released on Tuesday improved the sentiment for stock markets, especially for Tech companies, keeping them bullish, which in turn helped risk assets. However, there was some profit-taking later in the week.
There was some selling pressure on crude Oil due to hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza, which kept the CAD soft and USD/CAD basically unchanged at the end of the week. The CPI report for January showed that inflation is slowing, which also weighed on the CAD.
This Week’s Market Expectations
This is an inflation week, with many CPI (Consumer Price Index) reports to be released from Asia, Europe and Canada, with the US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation report highlighting the week on Thursday. I expect the market to be trading slowly without much direction until then. Here’s the economic calendar for the week starting from February 26th to March 1st:
Monday:
- US New Home Sales for January
- Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January
Tuesday:
- Democratic Primary in Michigan
- German GfK Consumer Climate for March
- US Durable Goods Orders for January
- US Consumer Confidence Index for February
Wednesday:
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Policy Announcement
- Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Final) for February
- US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2nd Estimate and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices (Preliminary) for Q4
Thursday:
- Australian Retail Sales for January
- US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January
- Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4
Friday:
- Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February
- US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February
Yesterday we saw some motion with a decline in the USD in the European session and a reversal later in the US session. But the range was not too big so we only had two closed trading signals, out of 4 forex signals that we opened all day.
Gold Made A Break Higher on Friday
After the forty-dollar drop in Gold prices two weeks ago, the price reversed back above $2,000 again and continued climbing. Last week buyers were attempting to push the price over the 50 SMA (yellow) but they kept failing. However, on Friday we saw a strong Bid in Gold which sent the price above the 50 SMA, so the resistance is now broken.
XAU/USD – Daily chart
The Retrace in AUD/USD Seems Complete
The Australian dollar showed modest gains against the US dollar last week, although it encountered resistance after reaching a monthly high of 0.6595. Despite this, the AUD/USD pair remains resilient, currently trading at $0.65705, reflecting a 0.26% increase from the previous day’s trading session.
AUD/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Retreats Below 50K
The rise in Bitcoin above $50,000 continues to be supported by ongoing market activity. In January, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $40,000 following the SEC’s approval of an ETF, but it quickly recovered and has since surpassed the $50,000 mark. Notably, there has been an increase in Bitcoin outflows as sellers are offloading their holdings. However, despite this selling pressure, buyers were keeping the price above the critical $50,000 threshold. But we saw a dip below this major level during the weekend.
Ethereum Slips Below the $3,000 Level
Ethereum has experienced a notable surge in value in recent weeks, accompanied by a substantial increase in trading volume, indicating strong demand for the cryptocurrency. On Tuesday, buyers pushed the price of ETH/USD above the $3,000 mark, but there was a subsequent dip below this level by the end of the week. However, the fact that the price has remained close to this significant zone suggests that buyers are still exerting control in the market.
- ETH Buy Signal
- Entry Price: $2,290
- Stop Loss: $2,590
- Take Profit: $1,750
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