Category: Trading Platforms

Nasdaq and S&P 500 End Week Higher Ahead of Trump’s Return

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Wall Street’s three main indices closed the week with solid gains, supported by an optimistic market outlook on the economy and anticipation of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency.

The Dow Jones rose 0.78% to close at 43,487.83 points, ending the week with a 3.69% increase—its largest weekly gain since late November. The S&P 500 advanced 1% to 5,996.66 points, up 2.91% for the week, also marking its biggest rise since late November. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.51% to 19,630.20 points, with a weekly gain of 2.45%, its best performance since early December.

[[SPX-graph]]

Ten of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500 closed higher on Friday, led by consumer discretionary stocks, which rose over 2%. The healthcare sector was the only one to decline, down 0.26%. Within the Dow Jones, notable gainers included Nvidia (+3.10%) and Amazon (+2.39%).

Optimism Over Economic Data

This week’s inflation data eased concerns about renewed price pressures and fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve may continue cutting interest rates this year.

Next week, 41 companies are set to release earnings, including Netflix, United Airlines, American Express, and Procter & Gamble.

Earnings Season Update

The earnings season also buoyed markets, with strong results from major banks such as Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs. The S&P 500 banking index surged nearly 7% this week.

So far, 42 S&P 500 companies (8% of the index) have reported Q4 2024 earnings, with 79% beating profit expectations and 67% surpassing revenue estimates, according to FactSet.

On Monday, U.S. markets will be closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. However, investors are expected to closely monitor President-elect Donald Trump’s first actions as he returns to the White House.

Mexican Peso Ends Negative Week Ahead of Trump’s Return

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso made a slight recovery on Friday after falling to its weakest level in two and a half years earlier this week. The currency strengthened marginally ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States on Monday.

The exchange rate closed the session at 20.7753 pesos per dollar, compared to 20.8187 pesos on Thursday, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a gain of 4.34 cents or 0.21% for the peso. During the session, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 20.9393 pesos and a low of 20.6769 pesos.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.38% to 109.35 points.

Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Threats

Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on the United States’ three largest trading partners—Canada, Mexico, and China. These threats include a potential 25% tariff on Mexican imports unless progress is made in combating drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl, and illegal immigration.

With 83% of Mexico’s exports directed to the United States, these concerns have contributed to the peso’s negative performance this week. Despite the slight gain on Friday, the currency ended the week down 7.01 cents, or 0.34%, compared to last Friday’s closing level of 20.7052 pesos per dollar.

Mixed Signals from U.S. Economic Data

Throughout the week, volatility in the peso-dollar exchange rate was driven by mixed U.S. economic indicators, which have created uncertainty about the future path of interest rates. Looking ahead, Monday is expected to be a quieter trading day due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in the U.S.

Despite Trump’s threats, Mexico continues to be a strategic trading partner for the U.S. As noted by high-ranking officials from both governments, reaching agreements remains a priority to maintain economic stability and mutual benefits.

IMF Maintains Growth Forecast for Latin America in 2025

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept its growth forecast for Latin America unchanged for this year, even as it revised down its projections for the region’s largest economy, Brazil.

“In Latin America and the Caribbean, overall growth is expected to slightly accelerate to 2.5% in 2025, despite the anticipated slowdown in the region’s major economies,” the IMF noted in its updated World Economic Outlook.

Revised Projections of Brazil and Mexico

The IMF downgraded Brazil’s growth forecast for this year to 2.2%, a significant drop from the 3% estimated in its October report. For 2026, Brazil’s growth is also projected to remain at 2.2%, signaling a moderate pace of economic expansion. The Brazilian Real suffered a strong depreciation in 2024.

[[USD/BRL-graph]]

Mexico’s growth forecast for this year remains unchanged at 1.4%, with the IMF predicting a gradual acceleration to 2% in 2026, reflecting a steady recovery in economic activity.

The Case of Argentina

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains notably optimistic about Argentina’s economic future. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF maintained its projection of a 5% increase in GDP for the current year and revised its 2026 growth forecast upward, also to 5%.

Released Friday morning in Washington, the report outlines global growth expectations of 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, falling below the historical average of 3.7% (2000–2019).

Developed Economies

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its growth forecast for the United States, now projecting the world’s largest economy to expand by 2.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates.

In contrast, growth in the eurozone is expected to remain subdued, with the IMF forecasting a modest expansion of 1%, up slightly from 0.8% in 2024.

These updates highlight the diverging economic trajectories between the U.S. and the eurozone, reflecting stronger momentum in the American economy while Europe continues to face slower recovery dynamics.

Cryptocurrencies Bid Farewell to Joe Biden: BTC Surges

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The crypto market bids a dramatic farewell to what it saw as its number one public enemy—the Biden administration—while extending a warm welcome to Donald Trump.

Cryptocurrencies are riding a strong bullish wave, with Bitcoin (BTC) continuing its ascent and surpassing $103,000 once again. Currently trading above $103,100 on Binance, Ethereum (ETH) is also showing steady growth, crossing the $3,400 mark.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Altcoins are performing notably well, with tokens like XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) gaining between 5% and 8% in the past 24 hours. Litecoin (LTC) stands out with a surge exceeding 10%, fueled by speculation over the potential approval of spot ETFs for the cryptocurrency.

Trump’s Role in the Crypto Revival

The primary driver behind this renewed momentum in the crypto market is none other than Donald Trump. The president-elect reportedly plans to prioritize cryptocurrencies as a matter of national importance, with some measures potentially rolling out shortly after his inauguration on January 20. Speculation is rife that Trump could establish a cryptocurrency advisory council to align digital assets with his political agenda.

Market Expectations

One of the most discussed proposals is the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a key promise from Trump’s election campaign. Rumors suggest that the reserve could be funded by $20 billion worth of Bitcoin previously confiscated by the government. If realized, this move would cement an official stance on cryptocurrencies and signify a groundbreaking shift in U.S. monetary policy.

However, Trump’s plans are not without controversy. Critics question the feasibility of such initiatives, citing concerns over crypto volatility, cybersecurity challenges, and the potential politicization of the market.

In a related development, Scott Bessent, Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, voiced his opposition to a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) during a Senate hearing. “I don’t believe the U.S. needs a CBDC; it’s a tool more suited to countries with fewer investment options,” Bessent stated. He also hinted at his support for the proposed strategic cryptocurrency reserve.

Odds of Success

On Polymarket, a popular betting platform, traders currently assign a 65% probability to the creation of the strategic Bitcoin fund. This optimism reflects growing anticipation of Trump’s administration taking significant steps to integrate cryptocurrencies into national policy.

Wall Street Falls as Inflation Optimism Fades

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Wall Street’s three major indices closed lower on Thursday, as enthusiasm from Wednesday’s inflation data cooled. Investors turned their focus to corporate earnings and adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16% to 43,153.13.
  • The S&P 500 lost 0.21% to 5,937.34.
  • The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.89% to 19,338.29.

[[SPX-graph]]

Mixed Signals from Economic Data

Wednesday’s consumer price data eased fears of renewed inflationary pressures, helping indices post their best performance since November 6. However, strong retail sales indicated robust consumer spending, while a slight rise in jobless claims tempered hopes for imminent Fed rate cuts.

Corporate Earnings Highlights

Morgan Stanley shares rose 4.03% after reporting increased fourth-quarter profits. Meanwhile, Bank of America shares fell 0.98%, as its earnings showed modest growth.

The market remains cautious, balancing positive earnings against persistent economic uncertainties.

Other Markets

Mexico’s stock markets closed with losses on Thursday, retreating alongside Wall Street indices. The declines came after three consecutive gains and amid caution ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency on Monday. The S&P/BMV IPC, the main index of the Mexican Stock Exchange, dropped 0.59% to close at 49,948.15 points.

Meanwhile, the FTSE BIVA, the benchmark of the Institutional Stock Exchange, declined 0.72% to 1,011.78 points. Markets remain wary as geopolitical and economic uncertainties weigh on investor sentiment.

The EuroStoxx 50 ended Thursday, January 16, on a positive note, posting a significant rise of 1.39% to close at 5,102.13 points. The index reached an intraday high of 5,107.32 points and a low of 5,065.23 points, with a trading range of 0.82%.

Over the past week, the EuroStoxx 50 has gained 1.68%, extending its annual growth to 14.25%. The index also sits 4.74% above its year-to-date low of 4,871.45 points, reflecting ongoing market momentum.

Mexican Peso Falls 1.6% on Trump Concerns

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso sharply depreciated on Thursday, losing ground due to global dollar strength. It ranked as the most depreciated currency among a basket of major currencies, as markets braced for the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.

The exchange rate closed at 20.8187 pesos per dollar, down from 20.4915 pesos the previous day, according to official data from Banco de México (Banxico). This represented a drop of 32.72 cents, or 1.60%. The [[USD/MXN]] traded in a range between 20.4570 and 20.8445 pesos, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.15% to 108.95 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Uncertainty Surrounding Trump

Republican Donald Trump is set to begin his second term as U.S. president on Monday. During his campaign, he threatened to impose tariffs on major trade partners, including a 25% tariff on Mexico, creating uncertainty about future U.S.-Latin America trade relations.

Last year, Mexico became the United States’ top trading partner, with 83% of Mexico’s exports going to the U.S. from January to November. This relationship is a key driver of the Mexican economy.

Interest Rates and Inflation Concerns

Worries over U.S. interest rates and inflation have also weighed on the peso. Trump’s policies could hinder Federal Reserve easing, adding further pressure.

While U.S. inflation data earlier this week briefly boosted the peso, analysts noted that these gains were quickly reversed. Concerns also extend to Japan’s central bank, which may raise rates in an upcoming policy meeting, adding to global market uncertainty.

Bitcoin and Crypto: What to Expect After Trump’s Return?

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Optimism surrounding the new administration is evident in market predictions. On January 20, Donald Trump will assume the U.S. presidency, a shift that promises to impact cryptocurrency regulation and adoption significantly.

Since his election victory in November 2024, Bitcoin has experienced notable price fluctuations, at times surpassing the $100,000 mark, fueled by expectations of crypto-friendly policies.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

A More Favorable Regulatory Environment

One key driver of optimism is Trump’s promise to ease cryptocurrency regulations. The appointment of Paul Atkins, known for his pro-digital asset stance, as the head of the SEC supports this outlook. Under Atkins’ leadership, the SEC is expected to adopt a more innovation-driven approach to the crypto sector. Trump also proposes forming a Presidential Cryptocurrency Council to shape regulatory strategies and boost U.S. leadership in the digital asset space.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Another bold initiative is the proposal to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. In July 2024, Trump suggested converting $20 billion in government-confiscated Bitcoin into a national reserve. This idea has gained traction in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, where legislation for state-level Bitcoin reserves is advancing.

The plan aims to diversify U.S. reserves, hedge against currency devaluation, and strengthen America’s technological edge against China.

Challenges Ahead and TradFi

Despite the optimism, several obstacles remain. Implementing these policies faces resistance from interest groups and legislative complexities. The strategic [[BTC/USD]] reserve proposal, for instance, requires amendments to key laws, such as the Federal Reserve Act, potentially delaying progress.
Wall Street Reacts

Meanwhile, traditional markets show mixed signals. On Thursday, the Dow Jones dipped 75 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also sliding, reflecting a cautious market amid shifting expectations.

While the crypto market eyes significant opportunities under Trump’s administration, challenges in execution and market dynamics remain pivotal.

BofA Recommends Betting on the Brazilian Real

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The US dollar surged more than 25% in Brazil during 2024. Rather than viewing this as a cause for concern, Bank of America (BofA) believes now is the time to invest in the Brazilian real.

Brazil wrapped up a financially turbulent 2024, with the real appreciating over 25% and the Central Bank of Brazil selling more than $40 billion of its reserves between September and December to stabilize the currency. Against this backdrop, one of the world’s leading banks has encouraged its clients to consider the Brazilian real, arguing that it is significantly undervalued.

The [[USD/BRL]] exchange rate is currently at 6.03, after reaching a peak of 6.3 in December.

[[USD/BRL-graph]]

Bank of America Sees Undervaluation

“We recommend a long position in reais with a tactical focus,” highlights a report from Bank of America on Latin America. The report emphasizes that “the Brazilian real is substantially undervalued” and points out that Brazil’s real interest rates are the highest among emerging markets. Additionally, the current account balance is expected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2024.

However, BofA tempers its recommendation with caution: “President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration has yet to show a decisive commitment to fiscal policy adjustments and public spending controls.”

The bank warns that without this critical catalyst, the real will not appreciate more than 20% of its potential. BofA also highlights risks to this strategy, including worsening fiscal outlooks in Brazil or rising oil prices.

JPMorgan’s Perspective on Brazil’s Central Bank Reserves

According to a report published by JPMorgan, Brazil’s gross reserves began the year above $325 billion, pushing net reserves to nearly $250 billion—more than 11% of the country’s GDP. While this level is comfortable compared to Brazil’s external debt, it remains significantly below the figures seen in recent years.

Wall Street Rises on Inflation Data and Q4 Earnings

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Wall Street’s main indices posted solid gains on Wednesday, supported by consumer inflation data aligning with forecasts and boosted by stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings from major banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, comprising 30 leading companies, rose 1.65% to close at 43,221.55 points. The S&P 500, representing the largest companies by market value, gained 1.83% to end at 5,949.91 points, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.45% to 19,511.23 points.

[[SPX-graph]]

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% in December, following a 0.3% rise in November, according to the Department of Labor. On an annual basis, inflation stood at 2.9%, up from 2.7% in November.

This data renewed market optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might ease its interest rate policies further this year. Previously, such expectations had diminished due to signs of economic strength in the service sector and labor market.

Sector Performance

Adding to the positive momentum, major banks exceeded expectations with their Q4 2024 earnings reports, fueling investor confidence. Stocks like Goldman Sachs (+6.02%), Wells Fargo (+6.69%), Citigroup (+6.49%), and JP Morgan (+1.97%) posted strong gains.

Among sectors, consumer staples was the only one to close in the red, dipping 0.09%, while consumer discretionary (+3.02%) and communication services (+2.66%) led the advances.

In the Dow Jones, apart from Goldman Sachs, notable gainers included American Express (+3.98%) and Nvidia (+3.4%).

On the International Front

Qatar and the United States announced on Wednesday a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The deal includes the release of hostages held by the Palestinian Islamist movement, following over 15 months of war that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

Following the announcement, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that some issues remained “unresolved” but expressed hope to finalize the remaining details “tonight.”

Mexican Peso Strengthens Following US Inflation Data

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso appreciated against the dollar for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, buoyed by US consumer inflation data that aligned with analyst expectations, reigniting hopes for interest rate cuts.

The exchange rate closed at 20.4915 pesos per dollar, compared to Tuesday’s close of 20.5311 pesos, according to official data from Banco de México (Banxico). This represents a gain of 3.96 cents, or 0.19%, for the peso.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The [[USD/MXN] fluctuated within a range of 20.5634 pesos at its peak and 20.3729 pesos at its lowest. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.11% to 109.06 units.

Renewed Hopes for Rate Cuts

US consumer prices increased 0.4% in December, following a 0.3% rise in November, as reported by the Labor Department. On an annual basis, inflation rose 2.9% over the 12 months ending in December, compared to a 2.7% increase in November.

These inflation figures, which matched market expectations, came a day after US producer price data came in below forecasts. This fueled optimism for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

Previously, traders had been cautious, anticipating slower or even stalled rate cuts due to signs of economic resilience in the US. This outlook contrasts with Banxico’s stance, which suggests more aggressive rate cuts could be on the horizon this year.

Mexican Peso Outlook

The expectation of fewer rate cuts by the Fed has impacted the exchange rate by narrowing the interest rate differential, a key driver of foreign exchange flows. Additionally, concerns about a potential resurgence in inflation and trade tensions under former President Donald Trump have exerted pressure on the Mexican peso.

Despite these challenges, the peso gained momentum after the US inflation data, technically approaching the lower end of its range near 20.30 pesos per dollar. Psychological levels have been heavily tested early this year.

The peso’s two-day rally resulted in a cumulative gain of 23.20 cents, or 1.12%, from Monday’s close of 20.7235 pesos per dollar. Market participants remain attentive to statements from Federal Reserve officials that could provide further direction.