Tesla stock is hot right now, gains 27% in a week

Posted on July 6, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

Tesla’s stock price increased to the point where it erased its year loss and increased its weekly gain to 27%. The electric vehicle manufacturer’s stock closed at $251.55 on Friday. They started the previous year at $248.48 and dropped as low as $138.80 in April.

A better-than-expected second-quarter deliveries report on Tuesday catalyzed the most recent rally. Deliveries fell 4.8% from a year ago, although the decline was less severe than in the first quarter, giving investors hope for the second half of the year.

The government of the Eastern Chinese province of Jiangsu recently released a buying catalog, in which Tesla is the sole foreign-owned brand of electric vehicles. The other brands mentioned include Volvo, owned by Geely in China, and SAIC, a state-owned enterprise.
They can be purchased as service cars by government agencies and public groups in the province, indicating China’s close relationship with Elon Musk’s business.

Tesla’s stock fell to a 52-week low in April because of several unsettling events. The company reduced through widespread layoffs, sales in the core automotive industry declined in the first quarter, and there were rumors that Tesla had abandoned ambitions to create an affordable family car at its Texas facility.
On July 23, following the bell, Tesla is scheduled to release its second-quarter financial results. Gross margins for automobiles will probably be the main focus. To draw consumers to its aging array of electric vehicles (EVs), which includes its well-liked entry-level Model 3 sedans, Model Y crossover utility vehicles, and its more costly premium Model S sedans and Model X SUVs, Tesla has been giving substantial discounts and incentives since last year.

Additionally, Tesla still needs to catch up in providing the software to make its cars self-driving. On October 19, 2016, Elon Musk declared that all Tesla vehicles under production at the time were equipped with the hardware required for self-driving capabilities. However, he stated that additional gear and sensors were set up in late June to achieve that potential.

Tesla is now experiencing two distinct phases of growth, with its upcoming Robotaxi and next-generation platform expected to drive more expansion for the company in the future. Even so, Tesla still needs to carry out these projects and adhere to the estimated timetables, something it has previously found difficult to achieve.

DAX Continues Rally – Set to Make a 3-Day Streak

Posted on July 5, 2024July 5, 2024 by Gino Bruno D'Alessio

DAX is up 0.8% so far this session and continues a 2-day rally despite today’s poor economic data.

Industrial Production MoM released earlier today at -2.5% compared to last month’s 0.1%. The market seems to have taken it in its stride, and that’s also taking into account forecasts were for a small rise in activity by 0.2%.

One reason why the market is not too worried by the drop in monthly industrial activity is that most of the [[DAX]] are large exporters of their goods, and international trade has a greater weight than local industrial production.

Auto tire -maker Continental is leading the way for the index, up nearly 7% on the day as the stock continues to rally from a recent low. Other top performers include MTU Aero Engines up 2.08% and Hannover Ruck 1.91%.

The attention now turns to this afternoon’s Non-farm Payrolls from the U.S. The markets are expecting a decline from last month’s 272k to 190k. The decline would still show an expanding economy, be it at a slower rate.

The market may accept the news well, as investors would consider that the Fed may see less inflationary pressure from a lower employment number.

Technical View

The day chart below for the DAX shows a market still in a bull trend with the market back above the cloud. Today’s candle is finding resistance at the level of 18,601 (black line), which is a high set in April.

We may see more bullish action if we get a close above the black line, after which the next resistance would be at the all-time high of 18,911 (red line). To the downside, the market has immediate support from the cloud.

Then further below the cloud at 17,939 (green line), which was the low of the correction from the ATH. To consider the bull trend as back in action we would need to see a close above the ATH. For the meantime the market is now looking like it is likely to trend sideways.

The upper and lower boundaries of the ATH and the green line from the last dip at 17,939 will set the liekly range.

[[DAX-graph]]

Forex Signals Brief July 5: Rolling Up to the NFP Report

Posted on July 5, 2024July 4, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday the main events were the release of the CPI inflation report from Switzerland and the UK Construction PMI, both of which came in softer. But while the former sent the CHF lower, with USD/CHF jumping 40 pips higher, the later didn’t have much effect on the GBP. Cable (GBP/USD) was a focal point on election day, but the driving force over the past two days has been the pound’s recovery, with the election outcome being largely anticipated.

Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief July 5: Rolling Up to the NFP Report” →

S&P 500 and Stocks Will Keep Making New Highs in Election Year

Posted on July 4, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

The upside momentum in stock markets doesn’t seem to stop, with the S&P 500 index printing a new record higher at 5,537 points. The sentiment remains positive as central banks start the monetary easing period, albeit slowly, but with more to come on everyone’s mind. This is an election year for many important countries, but that’s not offsetting stock buyers who keep buying the retreats lower. Continue reading “S&P 500 and Stocks Will Keep Making New Highs in Election Year” →

UK Elections: What you need to know

Posted on July 4, 2024 by Gino Bruno D'Alessio

The UK general election is underway today, with polls showing the Labour party likely to take an outright majority in the house of parliament.

Today’s election result could put Labour back in power after 14 years of Tory rule. Some polls are forecasting Labour’s victory could one the biggest parliamentary majorities in British history.

One of the main reasons for the shift from Tory to Labour is the desire for change. During the reign of the Conservative party politicians have been wrought buy scandals during the pandemic, war with Ukraine, and high inflation.

Rishi Sunak, the current prime minister, took the job after Lizz Truss was ousted for proposing sharp tax cuts. The pound plummeted, Gilt yields soared, and mainstream media crucified her for proposing the same policies that had made ex-prime minister Margaret Thatcher so popular.

Sunak was elected as the new prime minister by the Conservative party barons without a popular vote. The current prime minister is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker with shares in a fund that has invested heavily in companies that produced the Covid vaccine.

The vote for Labour is seen as a way to get change. Keir Starmer the Labour party leader hasn’t even proposed a clear agenda of policies. His campaign has been based on promises to make government fairer and to stop the chaos.

The [[FTSE]] opened slightly higher on the day up 0.4% at the time of writing. While [[GBP/USD]] is also slightly bullish, up 0.02%. The markets may feel that, either way, a Labour or a Tory is good as long as there is a majority.

Tail Risk

We may still get a surprise tonight, voting finishes at 10 pm UK time, after which exit polls will be announced. Most polls are placing Labour first by a wide margin, with the Tory party 20 points behind Labour in many polls.

One poll showed that the Tory party may even come in third, behind the smaller Liberal Democrat party. But we have seen so many polls get voting predictions wrong that it wouldn’t surprise me if we get an unexpected result here too.

The most renowned blunder for voting polls was the Brexit referendum in 2016, which was supposed to be won by the Stay group. The result in that referendum stunned the markets and most of mainstream media.

Could anything of this magnitude happen in today’s election? It remains very unlikely, the average British voter is set along red or blue lines and voting in the least bad option. However, the Reform party is gaining traction, and has added to its candidates Niel Farage.

Farage was the lead figure in the Brexit campaign, which he eventually managed to win. His candidacy has given the Reform party visibility and renown, something they have had little of since they formed.

Reform Party’s First Seats

The reform party may win its first seats in the house of parliament. But it may also make things worse for the Tory party. Many analysts believe the Reform party votes will come from the Conservative vote.

However, I’m not so sure, many British citizens share the same concerns whether they are on the left or right. Concerns which establishment parties like Labour and the Tories do not wish to even address.

If they do address them, such as immigration, what he have seen is the Conservative party promise to reduce illegal immigration, yet it has risen for every year they have been in government.

The surprise might come from the percentage of votes going to the Reform party. Most polls place them at receiving between 15% and 17%. Should that be a much larger number, although it may not win the more seats, it would show that the two-party system is beginning to fall.

[[GBP/USD-graph]]

Forex Signals July 3: Will US Jobs Report Show More Weakness?

Posted on July 3, 2024July 2, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday started with the CPI inflation report from the Eurozone, which showed that headline inflation ticked lower to 2.5%, approaching the 2% ECB target, however, core CPI remained stubbornly sticky at 2.9%. But that didn’t help the Euro or change the ECB stance as Christine Lagarde later confirmed.

Continue reading “Forex Signals July 3: Will US Jobs Report Show More Weakness?” →

DAX Declines as Global Geopolitical & Inflation Concerns

Posted on July 2, 2024July 2, 2024 by Gino Bruno D'Alessio

The German stock index opened lower today on the heels of a broader stock index decline in the US.

Investors are facing a challenging summer ahead. Geopolitical concerns from the war in Ukraine to the conflict in Israel. Coupled with the possibility of inflation printing higher than expected numbers.

We had a preclude last week with GDP Price index numbers printing higher than expected. We will all get one EDB policy meeting on July 18^th and a Fed meeting on July 30-31. Both central banks are widely expected to leave rates on hold.

What the market will be looking out for is the forward guidance for clues on when the ECB will lower rates again, and when the Fed will pivot to monetary easing. Then we will see some extra volatility as investors and traders begin to take their holidays.

The summer months are typically a period of the year when markets are more volatile than average, and stock returns tend to be weak. The [[DAX]] is down 0.9% today, but one stock is on a rally.

In stark contrast to the major trend, Siemens Energy AG (ENR) is up 3.5% on the news that the company is in the process of hiring 10,000 employees for its energy grid technology division.

Technical View

The day chart for the DAX below shows a market struggling to remain above the Ichimoku cloud. For now, several attempts to break below the cloud have failed. Most of the candle bodies have closed with the cloud.

This type of action denotes uncertainty, with attempts to break above the cloud also failing. Yesterday’s candle is about to print as an Abandoned Baby, depending on today’s candle.

This pattern is typically bearish, and I would expect the market to trade below the cloud in the coming days. The next support is at 17,939 (light green line), which coincides with the market’s first dip below the cloud.

Should that break, the next major support would be at 17,419 (orange line), which coincides with the end of a correction that led to the last leg of the bullish trend.

[[DAX-graph]]

Dax 30 and Euro Stocks Close Higher As ECB Offers 2 More Cuts

Posted on July 1, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

European stock markets were retreating ahead of French elections, but today they’re looking bullish, with Dax 30 and Euro opening higher. It seems like the advance of the right spectrum parties has calmed some fears, instead of fueling concerns, while the ECB remains on the dovish course, suggesting 2 more rate cuts until the end of 2024.

Continue reading “Dax 30 and Euro Stocks Close Higher As ECB Offers 2 More Cuts” →

CAC Rallies After 1st Round in General Election

Posted on July 1, 2024 by Gino Bruno D'Alessio

French stocks rallied this morning with other Eurozone indices, but the shadow of the general election result remains.

Marine LePen’s party National Rally obtained the most votes in the first round of elections, with polls placing her party within striking distance of winning an outright majority in parliament.

Macron is now considering pulling out of some electoral colleges to avoid a 3-way race where his party has little chance of winning the second round. He’s hoping that his voter will rally around the alternative to Marine LePen.

However, the second place in the first round went to the far-left alliance led by Melenchon’s France Unbowed party. The party is accused of harboring antisemitic views, which have been denied by Melenchon.

The second round could lead to an out-right majority in parliament for Marine Le Pen, which would oblige Macron to appoint the prime minister from her party. The event would create a disconnect between the president and the legislative branch.

But the final round of votes could also leave the National Rally with a win but without an outright majority. This would leave Macron’s party to attempt an alliance with the far-left alliance led by Melenchon.

Either scenario might make reducing the national debt and keeping a corporate friendly environment harder. Moody’s has already stated that they may place their outlook for French government bonds to negative.

Technical View

The day chart below for the [[CAC]] shows a bearish trend with the market below the Ichimoku could following a series of lower lows and highs. The previous low from June 14 seems to have created a base after a second touch on Friday.

Today’s candle is a bullish one but seems a take-profit reaction after the latest slide from its all-time high of 8,259. Today’s candle found resistance at 7,721 (green line), which has been tested twice before.

The last 10 candles have remained within the range of 7,460 (black line) and 7,721 (green line), which are now the immediate support and resistance levels. The next support is at 7,281 (orange line) and the higher resistance is at 7,854 (blue line).

[[CAC-graph]]

DAX Takes a Dive as Political Concerns Garner Speed

Posted on June 28, 2024June 28, 2024 by Gino Bruno D'Alessio

General elections in France are raising concerns as it seems ever more likely the right-wing party will land an outright majority.

The two-round vote will take place on June 30 and July 7 to elect a new national assembly. The latest polls show Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party well in the lead, and possibly landing 307 seats out of the 577-seat parliament.

If the polls are right many of Macron’s candidates won’t even make it to the second round. This would leave the current presidential party with a small representation.

Polls suggest that the second largest party would be France Unbowed. Which is a coalition of far-left parties and has a similar stance to RN on illegal immigration and EU overreach.

An outright majority would allow Le Pen to elect the prime minister and put Macron at odds with the legislative branch. Still, Macron has said he will stay in power until the next presidential elections in 2027.

However, it would greatly undermine his authority, Macron has used article 49.3 of the constitution to pass laws as a directive at the stroke of a pen. The directive power is similar to the executive order used by U.S. presidents.

The [[DAX]] is down 0.81% on the day and almost 3.0% over the past 3 days. More importantly, the index is down 5.8% since the Monday open following the EU elections.

Whether the next elections usher in a new left- or right-wing movement, the market has it clear that they are unlikely to be as corporate friendly as Macron’s business driven party. The president’s drive to make France a corporate friendly country has helped the stock index returns.

However, citizens have different concerns about healthcare, public security and quality of life. Macron’s focus on profits has driven many of his voters away from the party. And it seems that his CEO approach to running France is about to face a hefty bill.

[[DAX-graph]]