Author: Olumide Adesina

XRP has declined by nearly 15% over the past week and 3% today, despite a sharp rise in exchange outflows. Deeper signals suggest that the latest buying surge may be a trap, even though it initially an accumulation. While retail investors show clear enthusiasm, major investor groups and key technical patterns warn that XRP’s recovery might not last.

This indicates that long-term holders are selling rather than preparing for a comeback.
XRP is expected to move between $ 2. 2.3 and $ 2. 2.5 over the next week. A decline seems more likely because the chances of additional gains are low (less than 20%). The default scenario is the price remaining in a sideways range between $ 2 30 and $ 2 44. While a bullish move above $ 2. 50 seems unlikely; a clear drop below $ 2.30 could trigger a fall toward $ 2.18–$ 2.20.

Two other metrics support this outlook. The Smart Money Index (SMI), which measured the positioning of experienced traders, has fallen to its second-lowest point since early October. This reflects a decrease in rebound confidence. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which monitors the flow of money into or out of large wallets, stays below zero.

The lack of significant buying by large wallets indicates weak conviction. Taken together, these indicators suggest that major players are pulling back, despite price volatility attracting many traders.

Exchange outflows have risen despite poor confidence among large holders, which is often seen as a bullish sign. From –12. 7 million XRP on October 10 to –960 million XRP on October 15, the Exchange Net Position Change- measuring the movement of XRP in or out of exchanges- has increased by over 7,400 percent. This signals that investors are withdrawing tokens from exchanges, reducing immediate selling pressure.

Smart money, whales, and long-term holders are staying on the sidelines, implying that this activity likely points to potential retail accumulation—smaller investors hoping to profit from a rebound. Retail-driven buying without whale support has historically caused rallies to fade quickly, trapping late buyers as prices reverse.

Ripple Labs is leading a $1 billion fundraising effort to acquire XRP, the native token of its blockchain network. Reports indicate that the company is establishing a digital asset treasury to manage its XRP holdings. This treasury will be financed through a SPAC, which is a type of public shell corporation used to raise capital for partnerships or acquisitions.

Ripple plans to allocate some of its XRP to this treasury. The terms of the deal are still being negotiated and are subject to change.

If successful, this would be the largest XRP treasury ever established, placing XRP at the forefront of Ripple’s strategy to transform the global economy. The digital asset facilitates tokenization and cross-border payments, operating on its own ledger. To enhance tokenization in capital markets and increase XRP’s utility in traditional finance, Ripple has partnered with international investment firms.

The company’s ambition is to position XRP as a key asset in global trade and finance, aligning with recent partnerships and its participation in banking summits that highlight XRP’s role in significant financial transformations.

This initiative counters a trend where most corporate treasuries prefer Ether or Bitcoin for diversification. Although over 200 publicly traded companies hold more than $464 billion in digital assets, firms focused on XRP are rare. Notable examples include Trident Digital’s $500 million plan announced in June and VivoPower’s $121 million pivot in May 2025.

A 10x increase in XRP’s price to $26 would raise its market value to approximately $1.45 trillion, surpassing Ethereum’s current value and matching Bitcoin’s if BTC reaches $110,000. Even a conservative annual volume of $1 trillion would necessitate billions in XRP liquidity, leading to a reduction in supply through transaction fees and creating scarcity.

Ripple is set to launch its DeFi lending layer on XRPL, allowing institutions to borrow against XRP without requiring collateral.

The market for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), such as bonds and real estate, is booming on XRPL. This global market is valued at $650 trillion, and even a 1% inflow could generate significant trading activity. Collaborations with countries like Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, along with Bank of America’s testing of XRP for payments, suggest the potential for unlocking trillions of dollars in capital. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has called for immediate U.S. settlements, emphasizing that XRP’s 3-5 second transaction speed is ideal for such needs.