Wall Street Rallies Ahead of Nvidia Earnings as Oil Prices Pull Back

Posted on May 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The key event of the day will be the release of quarterly results from NVIDIA, while sovereign bond markets show signs of easing after recent volatility.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

Major U.S. stock indexes traded higher on Wednesday, led by technology shares, reversing the losses from the previous session. Investor attention is firmly focused on Nvidia’s earnings report, due after the close, from the world’s largest company by market capitalization.

In commodities, oil prices extended their decline but remained well above the $100 per barrel mark amid ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. Brent crude fell 6.2% to $105.30 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude dropped 5.2% to $98.19 per barrel.

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Global Market Impact

Reports from Axios and The Times of Israel suggested progress on a draft memorandum in which Iran would agree to transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, refrain from operating underground nuclear facilities, and accept enhanced inspections by the IAEA.

Meanwhile, the bond market — which had experienced sharp volatility in recent sessions — saw yields ease across major government debt benchmarks, including U.S. Treasuries, as well as bonds in Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany.

In Europe, equities rallied broadly, with the Euro Stoxx index rising 1.97%. Germany’s DAX gained 1.28%, while France’s CAC 40 added 1.79%. Outside the eurozone, the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.99%.

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In Asia, sentiment was mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.18% and Shanghai fell 0.32%, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.70% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 1.34% lower.

Wall Street Drivers

In this context, U.S. equities moved higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.91%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.35%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.12%.

Top gainers included Enphase (+14%), Super Micro Computer (+10%), and United Airlines Holdings (+10%). On the downside, Hasbro (-8%), Analog Devices (-5%), and Target (-5%) led declines.

The defining event of the session remains Nvidia’s quarterly earnings release after the closing bell. The report is seen as a key test for the artificial intelligence investment narrative, particularly in light of recent strategic developments involving CEO Jensen Huang’s engagement with policymakers in Beijing and Washington, and their potential implications for Nvidia’s China exposure.

China Seeks to Purchase 200 Boeing Aircraft and Extend Tariff Truce With the U.S.

Posted on May 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Beijing confirmed the purchase following the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, which also produced commitments on agriculture and critical minerals aimed at stabilizing bilateral relations.

Boeing will provide China at least 200 planes.

China announced on Wednesday that it will buy 200 aircraft from Boeing and said it will request an extension of the current trade truce with the United States, which is set to expire in November. The announcement comes as part of a broader set of agreements reached after the recent Trump–Xi summit.

China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed the deal in an official statement, though it did not disclose the specific aircraft models involved. As part of the agreement, the United States will guarantee the supply of aircraft engine parts and components to Chinese buyers.

If completed, the order would mark the first major Chinese purchase from Boeing in nearly a decade, after the U.S. manufacturer was effectively sidelined from the world’s second-largest aviation market amid escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

However, the reported figure is significantly lower than comments made by Trump earlier this week, when he suggested that total purchases could reach as many as 750 aircraft powered by next-generation engines from GE Aerospace.

Tariff Truce Under Negotiation

China’s commerce ministry emphasized that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods should not exceed the ceiling established under last year’s Kuala Lumpur understanding, which preceded the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea that extended the truce by one year and included a temporary pause on China’s restrictions on rare earth exports and magnets.

On tariffs, both sides are reportedly aiming for reciprocal reductions worth $30 billion or more, according to the Xi administration.

However, Washington’s tone remains cautious. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters that the Trump administration is “not in a hurry” to renew the critical minerals agreement, signaling further rounds of negotiations ahead.

Agriculture and Market Access

The White House said on Sunday that China has committed to purchasing at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products between 2026 and 2028, excluding a separate soybean agreement. Beijing has not confirmed the figure, but acknowledged “positive outcomes” in the agricultural sector and reciprocal market access arrangements.

Concretely, China will resume registration of eligible U.S. beef exporters and restart imports of certain American poultry products. In return, the United States has pledged to remove or reduce non-tariff barriers affecting Chinese agricultural exports, including dairy products.

Wall Street at Record Highs: Four Risks Threatening the Tech Rally

Posted on May 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Wall Street’s record highs can no longer be explained solely by enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence.

Behind the rapid development of AI technologies — particularly within the semiconductor industry — there is a very real boom in capital spending on data centers, chips, memory, energy, and digital infrastructure. However, the explosive growth in AI-related assets is also exposing increasing fragility beneath the surface of the market rally.

Price gains are becoming increasingly concentrated in a small group of companies, while the broader market fails to keep pace. At the same time, valuations are pricing in an exceptionally optimistic future for the sector, and the liquidity that fueled the rally may not last indefinitely.

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What Valuations Are Signaling

In 2026, Wall Street’s main technology ETF, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, has surged roughly 23.7% — nearly three times the 8.5% return delivered by the broader market ETF. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has climbed 16.3%, almost double the performance of the S&P 500.

Within the technology rally, semiconductor stocks have led the gains. The PHLX Semiconductor Index has jumped nearly 173% year-over-year, marking its strongest advance since the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000 — a comparison that is increasingly raising concerns among investors.

Part of those gains are supported by genuine fundamentals. With nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having already reported first-quarter earnings, 84% exceeded analyst expectations, while aggregate earnings growth reached 27.7% year-over-year — the fastest pace since late 2021.

Technology companies have led that expansion, posting earnings growth of 50.7%. However, that figure falls to 28.5% when excluding NVIDIA and Micron Technology.

Four Risks the Market Cannot Ignore

1. Extreme Concentration and Weak Market Breadth

The first risk is structural and already visible in the market itself.

According to data from BTIG, the S&P 500 recently closed 7.7% above its 50-day moving average, while only 52% of its components traded above their own 50-day averages.

Over the past 30 years, the market had never experienced a situation where the index traded more than 7% above its moving average while fewer than 55% of stocks participated in the rally.

This reflects the growing concentration in mega-cap technology companies, which continue driving indexes to new highs even as much of the broader market struggles under geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty.

2. Valuations Pricing in a Near-Perfect Scenario

The second risk lies in valuations themselves.

Corporate earnings growth is real, but stock prices now assume a future that must unfold almost perfectly. The 10 best-performing stocks in the Nasdaq 100 over the past year gained an average of 784%, surpassing the 622% average increase recorded by the top-performing stocks before the March 2000 dot-com peak.

As a result, comparisons with the dot-com bubble are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

3. The Reversal of Global Liquidity

The third risk is less visible but potentially more systemic.

The technology rally is not driven solely by AI optimism. It has also been supported by an enormous amount of global liquidity that was never fully absorbed after years of aggressive monetary stimulus.

The expansion of central bank balance sheets that began during the 2008 financial crisis never truly reversed and accelerated even further during the pandemic. Higher interest rates have only partially drained that liquidity from the financial system.

If global liquidity conditions tighten further, risk assets — particularly high-growth technology stocks — could face significant pressure.

4. Geopolitical Shock and Persistent Inflation

The fourth risk comes from geopolitics and inflation.

Oil prices recently climbed back above $100 per barrel amid the conflict between the United States and Iran, contributing to a rebound in U.S. inflation during April and reigniting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

The current concern is that the conflict could continue, crude oil prices could remain in triple digits, and central banks may be forced to adopt an even more restrictive monetary stance at a time when risk asset valuations are already stretched to extreme levels.

SpaceX Nears Historic IPO Led by Goldman Sachs

Posted on May 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

SpaceX is moving closer to what could become the largest IPO in history. The aerospace and artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk is reportedly preparing to file for its stock market debut this week, with a valuation expected to exceed $2 trillion.

Goldman Sachs will take the lead role in the offering, alongside Morgan Stanley as co-lead underwriter. According to sources familiar with the process, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase are also included in the underwriting syndicate, though with smaller roles.

The company could publicly submit its IPO filing as soon as Wednesday, according to earlier reports from Bloomberg News.

In public offerings, the placement of banks on the front page of the prospectus typically reflects a more active role in the deal and often a larger share of underwriting fees.

A Valuation Above $2 Trillion

SpaceX is reportedly aiming to raise as much as $75 billion through the IPO, which would easily surpass the record-breaking 2019 public offering of Saudi Aramco, which raised $29.4 billion.

Investor enthusiasm around SpaceX has been fueled by the rapid growth of its reusable rocket business, satellite operations, Starlink internet services, and expanding artificial intelligence initiatives.

Over the past several years, the company has established itself as one of the most strategically important players in the global aerospace and technology industries, securing multi-billion-dollar contracts with both private-sector clients and the U.S. government.

Wall Street Eyes Massive Fees

The scale of the offering is also expected to generate extraordinary fees for Wall Street banks.

Sources close to the deal said underwriting commissions could significantly exceed those typically associated with traditional IPOs due to the unprecedented size of the transaction.

Several international banks are also expected to play regional distribution roles:

Barclays will oversee UK-related orders.
Deutsche Bank and UBS will handle European distribution.
Royal Bank of Canada will coordinate Canadian orders.
Mizuho Financial Group will manage Asian demand.
Macquarie Group will focus on Australia.

The transaction is expected to become one of the most closely watched events on Wall Street, not only because of its historic size but also because of its potential impact on investor appetite for artificial intelligence, defense, aerospace, and advanced technology companies.

Which Stocks Are Being Hit Hardest by the Selloff in U.S. Treasury Bonds?

Posted on May 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Not all Wall Street stocks react the same way to the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, which in some cases have climbed above the 5% threshold. As bond prices fall and yields rise, financing becomes more expensive, risk appetite declines, and equity valuations come under pressure.

The surge in bond yields continues today

In this environment, the most vulnerable companies tend to be small-cap stocks, consumer-related firms, homebuilders, and parts of the technology sector. According to analysts cited by Reuters, the move higher in yields reflects persistent inflation concerns and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently climbed above 4.6%, while the 30-year yield briefly breached the symbolic 5% level — thresholds that historically tend to create turbulence in equity markets.

Rising Yields, Falling Stocks

One of the hardest-hit segments is small-cap equities. These companies typically rely more heavily on credit markets and domestic consumption, making them particularly sensitive to higher interest rates.

Small companies are more exposed to both consumer demand and capital markets — two factors that tend to weaken when borrowing costs rise.

In addition, many of these firms have limited current profitability, with valuations driven largely by expectations of future earnings. When Treasury bonds offer higher “risk-free” returns, those future cash flows become less attractive in present-value terms.

Consumer and Housing Under Pressure

Consumer discretionary stocks are also among the most exposed.

Higher interest rates combined with rising energy prices create a “double squeeze” on households: more expensive borrowing and higher day-to-day costs. This particularly affects retailers, leisure companies, and non-essential spending businesses.

The housing and construction sectors are also feeling the impact. Mortgage rates rise alongside Treasury yields, which can quickly cool demand. Portfolio manager Seth Hickle of Mindset Wealth Management noted that elevated rates may lead many buyers to “reconsider that purchase.”

Technology: High Valuations Under Strain

Technology — especially growth stocks and semiconductors — is another key pressure point. Because much of their valuation is based on future earnings, higher discount rates hit them more directly.

Richard Reyle of Questar Capital Partners warned that the rapid rise in yields “could threaten the leadership of the technology sector.”

Even so, some analysts argue that large-cap tech companies may prove more resilient thanks to strong balance sheets and robust earnings growth, which help cushion the impact of higher rates.

Global Sovereign Bond Selloff Intensifies as Investors Reassess Inflation Risk

Posted on May 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The impact of rising oil prices on global inflation, the possibility of further interest rate hikes by central banks, and weakening fiscal dynamics across major economies have triggered alarm bells among investors.

Since late last week, sovereign bonds across the world’s leading economies have come under heavy selling pressure, pushing yields to multi-year highs and spreading volatility into Wall Street’s equity markets.

The clearest example is the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond — widely considered the main benchmark for the global economy — which currently stands at 4.672%, its highest level since the first week of 2025.

The current level of long-term U.S. Treasury yields is significant because it signals a broader shift in the global cost of capital. When the risk-free rate rises, financial assets across the world must reprice, including equities, corporate credit, emerging-market debt, and sovereign bonds.

For instance, Germany’s 10-year sovereign bond yield has climbed to its highest level since 2011, while UK government bond yields have reached levels not seen since 2008. Japan’s 10-year bond yield is now at its highest point since 1996.

War and Inflation Reignite Bond Market Fears

This sharp move in bond markets reflects a combination of short- and long-term factors.

“In the near term, the surge in crude oil prices has once again put pressure on inflation expectations, reducing hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and forcing markets to demand higher yields,” analysts noted.

The negative surprise in U.S. wholesale inflation data for April, released just days ago, also acted as a major catalyst for rising interest rates and deteriorating market sentiment.

Analysts at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) argued that the moves “may partly reflect disappointment over the lack of progress with Iran” following meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as concerns that geopolitical tensions could escalate again after Trump’s trip to China concludes.

ING analyst Padhraic Garvey echoed that view. “This shift began on the Friday following the conclusion of the U.S.-China summit. That day saw significant net selling of Treasuries, pushing real yields sharply higher,” he explained.

As a result, markets have started pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors now assign a 58% probability to a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting. By April 2027, that probability rises to 80%.

Structural Fiscal Concerns Add Long-Term Pressure

Beyond short-term geopolitical risks, investors are increasingly worried about deteriorating fiscal conditions in developed economies.

Major advanced nations continue to run elevated fiscal deficits, issue growing amounts of debt, and rely heavily on external financing. That dynamic has forced investors to demand higher risk premiums to hold long-dated sovereign bonds.

The United Kingdom and Japan have become particularly important examples of this trend.

In the UK, markets are concerned that the departure of Prime Minister Keir Starmer could pave the way for a more fiscally expansionary government at a time when British public debt is already at its highest level since the 1960s.

Wall Street Retreats Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions and Pressure on Nvidia

Posted on May 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. stocks moved lower on Tuesday, May 19, as investors reacted to the lack of concrete progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, renewed pressure on artificial intelligence-related shares ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report, and another wave of selling in global bond markets.

Against that backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.65% to 49,364.31 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.64% to close at 7,355.45. The Nasdaq Composite underperformed, declining 0.84% to 25,870.71.

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Trump Says He Was “One Hour Away” From Striking Iran

Developments in the Middle East once again dominated market sentiment after President Donald Trump revealed that he had called off new military strikes against Iran following requests from Gulf leaders.

Trump said that “serious negotiations” are currently underway and argued that an “acceptable” agreement could still be reached for both the United States and Middle Eastern countries. He stressed that any potential deal would require Iran to abandon nuclear weapons development, although he also warned that the U.S. military remains prepared to launch a “large-scale” attack if talks collapse.

“I had already made the decision,” Trump said, explaining that he agreed to give Gulf authorities “two or three more days” to pursue a diplomatic solution. According to Iranian state media, Tehran has already submitted a peace proposal that includes a ceasefire and demands for compensation related to damages caused by the conflict.

Oil prices pulled back slightly after the sharp rally seen in recent sessions, although they remained elevated. Brent crude fell 1% to $110.94 per barrel.

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Treasury Bonds Face Another Heavy Selloff

Another major source of market stress came from the bond market. U.S. Treasury securities resumed their sharp correction, with yields climbing to multi-month highs amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.672%, its highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.176%.

Investors fear that persistently high energy prices could reignite global inflationary pressures and force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies for an extended period. That scenario tends to hit technology stocks especially hard, since their valuations rely heavily on expectations of future earnings growth.

Nvidia and AI Stocks Under Pressure

Beyond geopolitical tensions, investors remained focused on the upcoming quarterly earnings report from NVIDIA, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Shares of the chipmaker slipped 0.8%, marking a third consecutive daily decline and weighing on the broader semiconductor and technology sectors.

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Nvidia’s results are expected to help determine the market’s next direction, as investors look for a fresh catalyst following the strong rally that began in March. At the same time, markets are beginning to show signs of fatigue as concerns over higher interest rates and slowing momentum return to the forefront.

Bitcoin Drops as Risk Aversion Returns to Global Markets

Posted on May 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Cryptocurrencies pulled back as investors shifted their focus toward rising geopolitical tensions and their potential economic impact.

Bitcoin remains close to $76K this week.

Sentiment across the crypto sector deteriorated over the past few days as global volatility returned, driven by the economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East. Bitcoin, which traded as high as $82,000 last week, is now hovering around $76,500, down 0.8% on the day. Ethereum followed a similar path, slipping 1.4% to $2,106.

The broader altcoin market showed mixed performance. The largest declines were seen in XRP, Dogecoin, and Tron, each falling as much as 0.8%. On the upside, Hyperliquid and Figure Heloc stood out with gains of 2.1% and 5.2%, respectively.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin remains under heavy pressure as risk aversion intensifies across global markets amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Rising oil and natural gas prices have reinforced inflation concerns and weakened investor appetite for more volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Concern Returns to Crypto Markets

According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $648.6 million in net outflows across seven funds during the latest trading session. That added to last week’s total outflows of roughly $1 billion, ending a six-week streak of positive inflows.

“If this wave of withdrawals continues, BTC could remain under pressure and retest the $70,000 demand zone,” Gama noted.

Meanwhile, data from Glassnode showed that activity in Bitcoin options markets suggests traders are increasingly hedging against downside risks, signaling growing fears of a prolonged decline in prices.

Market sentiment also weakened significantly. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 25, entering the “Extreme Fear” zone and highlighting a highly cautious environment among investors.

Soybeans, Corn and Wheat Rally on Expectations of Record Chinese Purchases

Posted on May 18, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. grain markets rallied sharply on Monday, with soybeans, corn and wheat posting strong gains in Chicago after renewed optimism over Chinese demand for American agricultural exports.

Soybeans, wheat, and corn show an important recovery.

The rally followed an announcement from the White House stating that China had committed to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products over the next three years, amid a broader thaw in trade relations between the two largest economies.

Wheat led the advance, jumping 3.5% to $242.04 per metric ton. Soybeans rose 2.2% to $442.02, while corn gained 3.1% to $185.23.

The move came after President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, with Washington signaling that Beijing has agreed to significantly expand its agricultural imports.

According to the White House, the deal does not include previously agreed soybean purchases from October 2025. Market participants had not expected China to lift its soybean import target above 25 million metric tons.

Despite the announcement, Chinese agricultural imports from the U.S. still face a 10% tariff, a legacy of earlier trade retaliation rounds that continue to weigh on bilateral flows.

Signs of broader trade easing

China’s Ministry of Commerce said both countries are also working toward broader trade liberalization, including potential reciprocal tariff reductions across a wide range of goods, though no specific measures were detailed.

Weather risks add support to wheat

Beyond geopolitics, wheat prices were also supported by weather concerns in the United States. According to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, expected rainfall in the U.S. Plains may arrive too late to prevent further damage to winter wheat crops and could even worsen field conditions.

At the same time, European traders noted that elevated U.S. domestic wheat prices are already pushing American buyers to import grain from Poland, highlighting tightening supply dynamics in the market.

Wall Street Closes Mostly Lower on Tech Weakness and Bond Market Pressure

Posted on May 18, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. equities traded with notable volatility on Monday, May 18, as investors balanced easing pressure in global bond markets against renewed geopolitical uncertainty between the United States and Iran, while also positioning ahead of upcoming earnings from Nvidia.

The Nasdaq led losses as technology stocks came under pressure. In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.32% to 49,686.12 points, the S&P 500 slipped 0.08% to 7,402.81 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.51% to 26,090.73 points.

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Trump warns Iran as diplomatic deadlock persists

Geopolitical tensions dominated early trading after new drone incidents in the Gulf and continued stalemate in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a U.S. peace proposal and warned that the current ceasefire was effectively on “life support.”

“Iran’s time is running out — they had better act fast or nothing will remain,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday.

Both sides remain far apart. The U.S. is demanding that Iran abandon its nuclear ambitions, surrender enriched uranium, and reopen strategic shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, is calling for a full ceasefire, compensation for war damages, and an end to the U.S. naval blockade, while insisting on maintaining limited nuclear activity under international supervision.

Oil prices reflected the uncertainty, with Brent crude rising 1.5% to $110.87 per barrel.

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Bond markets stabilize after sharp global selloff

Attention also shifted to fixed income markets, where a global bond selloff that accelerated last week showed signs of stabilizing.

The move had pushed yields sharply higher across major economies, driven by inflation data showing rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors increasingly priced in the risk of prolonged inflation and tighter monetary policy from central banks.

In U.S. markets, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.604%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.138%, remaining near multi-year highs.