Soybeans, Corn and Wheat Rally on Expectations of Record Chinese Purchases

Posted on May 18, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. grain markets rallied sharply on Monday, with soybeans, corn and wheat posting strong gains in Chicago after renewed optimism over Chinese demand for American agricultural exports.

Soybeans, wheat, and corn show an important recovery.

The rally followed an announcement from the White House stating that China had committed to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products over the next three years, amid a broader thaw in trade relations between the two largest economies.

Wheat led the advance, jumping 3.5% to $242.04 per metric ton. Soybeans rose 2.2% to $442.02, while corn gained 3.1% to $185.23.

The move came after President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, with Washington signaling that Beijing has agreed to significantly expand its agricultural imports.

According to the White House, the deal does not include previously agreed soybean purchases from October 2025. Market participants had not expected China to lift its soybean import target above 25 million metric tons.

Despite the announcement, Chinese agricultural imports from the U.S. still face a 10% tariff, a legacy of earlier trade retaliation rounds that continue to weigh on bilateral flows.

Signs of broader trade easing

China’s Ministry of Commerce said both countries are also working toward broader trade liberalization, including potential reciprocal tariff reductions across a wide range of goods, though no specific measures were detailed.

Weather risks add support to wheat

Beyond geopolitics, wheat prices were also supported by weather concerns in the United States. According to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, expected rainfall in the U.S. Plains may arrive too late to prevent further damage to winter wheat crops and could even worsen field conditions.

At the same time, European traders noted that elevated U.S. domestic wheat prices are already pushing American buyers to import grain from Poland, highlighting tightening supply dynamics in the market.

Wall Street Closes Mostly Lower on Tech Weakness and Bond Market Pressure

Posted on May 18, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. equities traded with notable volatility on Monday, May 18, as investors balanced easing pressure in global bond markets against renewed geopolitical uncertainty between the United States and Iran, while also positioning ahead of upcoming earnings from Nvidia.

The Nasdaq led losses as technology stocks came under pressure. In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.32% to 49,686.12 points, the S&P 500 slipped 0.08% to 7,402.81 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.51% to 26,090.73 points.

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Trump warns Iran as diplomatic deadlock persists

Geopolitical tensions dominated early trading after new drone incidents in the Gulf and continued stalemate in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a U.S. peace proposal and warned that the current ceasefire was effectively on “life support.”

“Iran’s time is running out — they had better act fast or nothing will remain,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday.

Both sides remain far apart. The U.S. is demanding that Iran abandon its nuclear ambitions, surrender enriched uranium, and reopen strategic shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, is calling for a full ceasefire, compensation for war damages, and an end to the U.S. naval blockade, while insisting on maintaining limited nuclear activity under international supervision.

Oil prices reflected the uncertainty, with Brent crude rising 1.5% to $110.87 per barrel.

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Bond markets stabilize after sharp global selloff

Attention also shifted to fixed income markets, where a global bond selloff that accelerated last week showed signs of stabilizing.

The move had pushed yields sharply higher across major economies, driven by inflation data showing rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors increasingly priced in the risk of prolonged inflation and tighter monetary policy from central banks.

In U.S. markets, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.604%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.138%, remaining near multi-year highs.

Goldman Sachs Warns of AI’s Growing Impact on Financial Markets

Posted on May 18, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Chief economist Jan Hatzius warned that artificial intelligence could further strengthen America’s largest corporations and widen the gap between dominant firms and smaller competitors, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.

Intel chips are in extremely high demand, and their Q1 report showed a massive sales increase.

The investment bank examined nearly a century of data on corporate sales, profits, and taxation, concluding that periods of rapid technological advancement have historically favored companies with greater scale and investment capacity.

According to Hatzius, corporate concentration in the United States has been rising since the 1930s, with innovation cycles often accelerating that trend.

AI may reinforce the dominance of Big Tech

Goldman Sachs argues that major technological shifts typically require enormous upfront investments in infrastructure, software, and operational restructuring — costs that large corporations can absorb far more easily than smaller rivals.

In that environment, artificial intelligence could amplify economies of scale and network effects already enjoyed by leading technology firms.

Companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms are collectively investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure, particularly data centers and advanced semiconductor systems.

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Goldman estimates that large technology firms will invest more than $700 billion this year alone and over $1 trillion before the end of the decade.

The report notes that industry leaders benefit from advantages that are difficult to replicate, including privileged access to capital, vast data resources, the ability to attract specialized talent, and already-established global ecosystems.

As a result, the bank suggests the AI revolution may not redistribute economic power but instead further consolidate the position of today’s market leaders.

A debate over AI’s economic impact

Goldman’s assessment contrasts with more pessimistic views that focus primarily on the disruptive effects of AI on employment and economic stability.

Concerns over automation replacing administrative and professional jobs have intensified in recent months. However, Goldman argues that the clearest effect so far has been the strengthening of companies capable of financing the technological race.

At the same time, the bank acknowledged lingering uncertainty about whether massive AI spending will ultimately translate into meaningful financial returns.

In separate recent research, Goldman analysts noted that while companies increasingly emphasize artificial intelligence in earnings reports and investor presentations, concrete evidence of significant profit improvements remains limited.

Middle East Conflict Has Already Cost Global Companies at Least $25 Billion

Posted on May 18, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

With energy prices near record highs, global supply chains under pressure, and key trade routes disrupted, the conflict in the Middle East has already cost companies worldwide at least $25 billion since the war began in late February — a financial hit comparable to the impact many firms faced last year from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

The US military may be ending the fight in Iran soon, and investors are hopeful.

The estimate comes from a review of corporate filings and earnings reports from publicly traded companies across the United States, Europe, and Asia. In total, at least 279 companies have cited the war as a reason for implementing defensive measures aimed at limiting financial damage.

Airlines account for the largest share of the losses, totaling nearly $15 billion, as jet fuel prices have almost doubled amid the conflict.

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Companies across multiple sectors have responded with price increases, production cuts, and cost-saving measures. Some have suspended dividends and share buyback programs, while others have temporarily laid off workers, added fuel surcharges, or sought emergency government assistance.

For comparison, hundreds of corporations reported more than $35 billion in costs linked to Trump’s 2025 tariffs last October.

Corporate leaders compare the shock to 2008

As the conflict drags on, businesses are increasingly lowering expectations for the remainder of the year, with few signs of a near-term diplomatic resolution.

Several executives have warned that the current industrial slowdown resembles the conditions seen during the 2008 global financial crisis — and in some sectors may even be worse than previous recessionary periods.

Rising costs are also feeding inflationary pressures, eroding consumer purchasing power and changing spending habits worldwide. Companies report that consumers are increasingly delaying purchases and opting to repair products instead of replacing them.

Energy inflation hits consumer demand

McDonald’s recently warned that it expects persistent long-term cost inflation due to ongoing supply chain disruptions tied to the conflict.

CEO Chris Kempczinski said higher fuel prices are already hurting lower-income consumers, adding that rising gasoline costs have become “the main issue” affecting customer demand.

The combination of elevated energy prices, weaker consumption, and supply chain instability is now emerging as one of the largest challenges facing the global corporate sector in 2026.

Mexican Peso Weakens Against Dollar, Ends Week With Losses

Posted on May 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations for U.S. interest rates pushed the Mexican peso lower this week, as investors sought safety in the dollar amid rising global uncertainty.

The Mexican currency weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, ending the week with cumulative losses after President Donald Trump concluded his visit to China without major announcements.

The exchange rate closed the session at 17.3428 pesos per dollar. Compared with Thursday’s official close of 17.2281, according to Bank of Mexico data, the peso lost 11.47 centavos, or 0.67%.

During the session, the dollar traded between a high of 17.4028 pesos and a low of 17.2311. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.49% to 99.30 points.

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Higher U.S. inflation and oil prices pressure currencies

Economic data released this week showed that inflation in the United States remains elevated, supported by resilient economic activity and higher oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

As a result, the dollar posted its strongest weekly gain in two months, while traders sharply adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets have now largely ruled out the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year. Instead, traders are beginning to price in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, currently carrying an implied probability of 38%.

At the same time, Trump’s trip to China ended without meaningful progress regarding the conflict in the Middle East. Upon returning to Washington, the president warned that he was “running out of patience” with Iran, further fueling market concerns.

Oil prices extended their rally, with WTI crude futures climbing more than 4% to trade above $105 per barrel.

Peso posts weekly losses as risk aversion rises

On a weekly basis, the peso lost 14.94 centavos, or 0.87%, compared with last Friday’s close of 17.1934 per dollar.

Analysts noted that growing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates continue to support the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

Market participants are now awaiting the release of minutes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Mexico for additional clues on the future path of monetary policy.

In the near term, traders expect the exchange rate to consolidate within the 17.35–17.50 range if global risk aversion persists, with the peso likely to remain under pressure as the dollar regains momentum as a defensive asset.

Wall Street Slumps on U.S.–China Stalemate and Global Bond Selloff

Posted on May 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, April 15, as a combination of weaker sentiment following President Donald Trump’s visit to China, a global bond selloff, and renewed inflation concerns linked to Middle East tensions weighed on markets.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

The downturn came after a recent rally that had pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to record highs, with investors taking profits as bond market volatility intensified.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.07% to 49,526.11 points, the S&P 500 lost 1.25% to 7,407.52 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.54% to 26,225.15 points.

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“No breakthroughs” from Trump–Xi talks

Trump’s visit to China concluded on Friday, with little clarity on concrete economic agreements. Video footage from the White House showed the president boarding Air Force One after what marked the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to China since 2017.

Xi Jinping and Trump held a second round of talks, along with a private meeting, according to Chinese state media. However, details on any trade deals remain limited, although discussions reportedly touched on Taiwan as a key issue.

In a Fox News interview, Trump claimed China agreed to purchase U.S. oil and expand imports of Boeing aircraft, agricultural goods, and visa access. However, no formal contracts have been confirmed.

Markets were briefly supported by optimism after reports of meetings between Trump and major corporate executives, while a Reuters report suggesting U.S. approval for Nvidia to sell advanced AI chips to Chinese firms helped lift sentiment earlier in the session.

Bond selloff triggers global market stress

The broader market tone was heavily influenced by a sharp rise in global bond yields, which triggered a broad risk-off move across asset classes.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose 13 basis points to 4.582%, its highest level in nearly a year. The 30-year yield climbed above 5%, reaching 5.114%, the highest since 2007. The 2-year yield also advanced to 4.079%.

The selloff was not limited to the U.S.: UK 30-year gilt yields reached their highest level since 1998, while Japanese 30-year government bond yields hit record highs. In Japan, stronger-than-expected producer inflation reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.

Energy prices add inflation pressure

Oil prices also resumed their upward trend, adding to inflation concerns. Brent crude futures rose 3.6% to $109.55 per barrel, reflecting ongoing geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East conflict.

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Recent U.S. inflation data for April, including both CPI and PPI, highlighted the impact of rising energy costs, feeding into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, and reinforcing expectations that inflationary pressures may remain sticky in the months ahead.

Ford Shares Jump 20% on Google, Microsoft Deal Speculation

Posted on May 15, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Ford Motor Company has officially unveiled “Ford Energy,” a new subsidiary focused on developing battery-based energy storage systems for data centers, utilities, and large industrial clients in the United States.

Ford stock surged on new deals speculation.

The announcement triggered a sharp rally in Ford’s shares, which surged nearly 20% in over just two trading sessions, fueled by investor enthusiasm over the company’s entry into the fast-growing energy storage market linked to the artificial intelligence boom.

The rally accelerated after Morgan Stanley highlighted the strategic potential of the new business, suggesting it could have ties to major technology clients such as Google and Microsoft.

A strategic bet on AI-driven energy demand

Market reaction intensified as investors interpreted Ford’s move as a direct play on the surging demand for electricity driven by AI infrastructure and hyperscale data centers. The new subsidiary will focus on large-scale energy storage solutions designed to support power-intensive digital ecosystems.

Morgan Stanley also argued that Ford benefits from a “significantly underappreciated competitive advantage” due to its technological partnership with China’s CATL, one of the world’s largest battery manufacturers.

According to the bank’s estimates, Ford’s energy storage division could achieve gross margins of around 25% and potentially reach a valuation of up to $10 billion.

The automaker plans to invest approximately $2 billion in the new division and repurpose parts of its existing EV battery infrastructure to support the expansion.

Ford aims to begin large-scale deployment of energy storage systems from 2027 onward, targeting a market where major technology companies require massive and growing amounts of power to sustain AI expansion.

CEO Jim Farley said there is already “significant interest” from potential clients and confirmed that the company is in early-stage contract discussions to secure supply agreements.

Drawing comparisons with Tesla’s energy strategy

The market has also begun drawing comparisons between Ford’s move and the strategy of Tesla, whose energy division has become one of the fastest-growing segments under Elon Musk.

Some analysts believe Ford is attempting to replicate this model to reduce its reliance on the traditional automotive business and offset losses in its electric vehicle segment.

However, concerns remain over execution risk, with several analysts noting that Ford still faces significant challenges competing in a highly specialized market dominated by established energy storage players.

Global Turmoil Halts Bitcoin Rally After Surge Driven by Clarity Act Approval

Posted on May 15, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Originally fueled by the Senate approval of the Clarity Act in the United States, cryptocurrencies reversed course on Friday as rising global uncertainty triggered a broad risk-off move across financial markets.

Bitcoin, which had surged above $82,000 the previous day, fell sharply and is now trading near the critical $79,000 support level.

Meanwhile, Ethereum is on track to close the trading week in negative territory, hovering around $2,215 after a daily decline of 1.9%. Among major altcoins, Solana stood out on the downside with losses of 2.3%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

The broader crypto market remains under pressure from increasing risk aversion and a stronger U.S. dollar. Investors were disappointed by the lack of concrete breakthroughs following Donald Trump’s visit to China, while ongoing tensions and stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to weigh on market sentiment.

At the same time, the dollar has strengthened as traders raise expectations that the Federal Reserve could potentially hike interest rates following a series of stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reports released earlier this week.

Clarity Act boosts long-term optimism

Despite the short-term pullback, the approval of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — commonly referred to as the Clarity Act — marked a major milestone for the crypto industry.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee approved the legislation in a 15-9 vote, creating for the first time a federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the world’s most influential financial market.

Analysts believe the bill could help reduce one of the sector’s biggest barriers: regulatory uncertainty. According to market participants, the Clarity Act may finally open the door for more serious institutional capital that had remained sidelined for years.

Following committee approval, the bill now advances toward final review in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, although no official voting date has yet been scheduled.

The legislation is also being closely watched internationally, as regulatory developments in the United States often trigger broader policy discussions in other countries. Investors increasingly see clearer U.S. rules as a potential catalyst for more mature and coordinated global crypto regulation.

Wall Street Rushes Into Space ETF Following SpaceX Market Debut

Posted on May 15, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The boom in space-related exchange-traded funds is accelerating in 2026, and a new player has quickly become one of Wall Street’s biggest surprises: the NASA ETF, officially known as the Tema ETFs Space Innovators ETF.

Google and SpaceX are partnered to produce projects together that could result in orbital data centers.

Launched in late March, the fund has already attracted roughly $367 million in inflows and surpassed $400 million in total assets in just six weeks, making it one of the most prominent space-themed ETFs on the market.

Investor appetite for the sector has surged this year. There are now ten ETFs focused on the space economy, collectively managing around $2.4 billion, fueled by strong stock performance across the industry and growing capital inflows.

Among the best-known funds are ARK Invest’s ARKX ETF, alongside UFO, ROKT, and newer launches such as ORBX and WARP. However, NASA has managed to stand out for one key reason: it is currently the only space ETF offering direct exposure to SpaceX through a special purpose investment vehicle (SPV).

The space ETF capturing Wall Street’s attention

That SpaceX position accounts for roughly 10% of the portfolio, sitting just behind Rocket Lab, the fund’s largest holding. Exposure to Elon Musk’s company has become the ETF’s biggest selling point, especially amid growing speculation surrounding a future SpaceX IPO that could reportedly value the company near $2 trillion.

Performance has also fueled enthusiasm. Since its launch, the NASA ETF has climbed approximately 37%, significantly outperforming other space-focused funds such as ARKX, UFO, and ROKT.

Still, analysts note that much of the fund’s gains have not come directly from SpaceX exposure, but rather from aggressive positions in publicly traded space companies like Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, and Filtronic, all of which have posted strong rallies in recent months.

Space investing moves into the mainstream

Across investor forums and social media, the ETF has sparked growing debate. Some traders see NASA as a simple way to gain exposure to the rapidly expanding space economy and the excitement surrounding SpaceX. Others question whether the fund’s private-market exposure is meaningful enough or whether SpaceX’s implied valuation has become excessive.

Despite those concerns, the trend highlights how aggressively markets are now betting on the future of the space industry. With new ETF launches, rising retail participation, and expectations of a potential SpaceX public offering, space investing has evolved from a niche theme into one of the hottest areas of the ETF market in 2026.

Eurozone Economy Loses Momentum in Q1 as Signs of Slowdown Intensify

Posted on May 14, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The eurozone economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2026, raising fresh concerns about the strength of Europe’s recovery amid the war in the Middle East, rising energy costs, and persistent industrial weakness.

The Eurozone economy is not getting a grip

According to preliminary estimates released by Eurostat, the eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded just 0.1% between January and March, down from the previous quarter and in line with market expectations.

The figures already reflect the initial economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting tensions in global oil markets, factors that have begun to weigh on business sentiment and economic expectations across Europe. Across the broader European Union, economic activity managed slightly stronger growth of 0.2% during the quarter.

Germany stabilizes while France stalls

Among the strongest-performing economies were Finland, which grew 0.9%, followed by Hungary at 0.8% and Bulgaria at 0.7%.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland posted the steepest contraction, with GDP falling 2%, followed by Lithuania (-0.4%) and both Sweden and Romania (-0.2%).

Among the eurozone’s largest economies, Spain once again led growth with a 0.6% expansion, while Germany posted a modest 0.3% rebound after months of economic weakness. Italy grew 0.2%, while France stagnated with zero growth during the period.

On a yearly basis, eurozone GDP expanded 0.8%, slowing from 1.3% in the previous quarter. Across the entire European Union, annual growth decelerated from 1.4% to 1%.

Europe’s industrial sector remains under pressure

The slowdown was also reflected in industrial activity data. Eurostat reported that eurozone industrial production rose just 0.2% month-over-month in March, below analysts’ expectations of 0.3%. The agency also revised February’s reading lower, from 0.4% growth to 0.2%.

On an annual basis, industrial production across the 19 eurozone countries fell 2.1% in March, a steeper decline than the 1.7% contraction expected by markets.

The industrial weakness reflects the combined impact of soft demand, elevated energy costs, and global uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. Against this backdrop, concerns are growing over Europe’s ability to sustain a solid economic recovery through the rest of 2026, especially if energy volatility persists and oil prices remain elevated.