Wall Street Jumps 3% on U.S.–Iran Two-Week Ceasefire Deal

Posted on April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Markets celebrated the truce between the United States and Iran: stocks rallied while oil prices plunged, although doubts remain about how long the agreement will last.

Wall Street Mixed as Investors Rotate into Cyclical Sectors — Wall Street rallied as Investors Rotated into Cyclical Sectors

Wall Street posted strong gains on Wednesday, April 8, driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran. The news also triggered a drop of more than 12% in oil prices.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.85% to 47,910.79 points; the S&P 500 advanced 2.52% to 6,783.48 points—its highest level since early March—and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.80% to 22,635.00 points.

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For now, diplomacy has managed to cool tensions in the Middle East. Market participants had been on edge ahead of a Tuesday 8:00 p.m. (ET) deadline set by Trump for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its energy infrastructure. A request from Pakistan, a key mediator, to extend the deadline and respect a two-week truce helped improve market sentiment.

Only hours before the deadline, Trump announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he had accepted Pakistan’s request, conditional on the immediate reopening of the strait. He also said Iran had submitted a 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would halt its defensive operations and facilitate safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz if maritime traffic were coordinated with its military.

Market reaction

Wall Street futures had already reacted positively after Tuesday’s close and extended gains on Wednesday, with major indexes surging from the opening bell.

Trump later provided more details about the truce: “The United States will work closely with Iran (…) there will be no uranium enrichment and progress will be made in eliminating nuclear material.”

He also said negotiations on reducing tariffs and sanctions would continue, adding that many elements of the agreement were already advancing.

At the same time, Israel continued attacks against Hezbollah, while Iran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire.

The Israeli government backed the agreement, although it did not include Lebanon, where strikes continued. According to the The Wall Street Journal, Israel was informed late and was not fully satisfied with the terms.

Relief that could prove temporary

Reports of ceasefire violations failed to halt market optimism.

Oil prices plunged:

Brent crude: −12.8% to $95.26
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): −15.2% to $95.7.

Notable Movers on Wall Street

The market saw strong sector rotation:

Travel-related stocks surged: Southwest Airlines (+6.6%), Norwegian Cruise Line (+7.6%), United Airlines (+7.8%), and Carnival Corporation (+11%).
Airline stocks rose roughly 7% on average, though Delta Air Lines (+3.7%) lagged after issuing weak earnings guidance.
The energy sector of the S&P 500 dropped sharply due to the collapse in oil prices.
LyondellBasell (−7.5%) and APA Corporation (−7.6%) were among the hardest hit.
Meta Platforms rose 6.5% following the launch of its new AI model.

S&P 500 Dividend Yield Hits 50-Year Low

Posted on April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The only other time the dividend yield of the S&P 500 fell to such low levels was during the tech bubble of the early 2000s.+

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

The dividend yield of the S&P 500 is currently at a historically low point, reflecting a structural shift in the U.S. equity market and posing challenges for investors seeking recurring income without sacrificing growth.

At present, the index’s dividend yield stands near a 50-year low, at around 1.24%. This marks a sharp contrast with previous decades, when dividends represented a much larger share of total returns.

According to Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, the only other time the yield dropped to a similarly low level was during the early-2000s tech bubble, when it reached 1.09%.

Technology stocks driving the shift

Parker noted that over the past 100 years, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of roughly 10%, with about 30% of that coming from dividends.

The main reason behind the current situation is not simply that companies are paying fewer dividends, but rather that stock prices—particularly in the technology sector—have risen much faster than dividend payouts.

“The percentage of companies paying dividends stands at about 56.5%, which is not significantly different from the past 25 years. It is therefore clear that the largest companies by market capitalization—many with low or no dividends—are driving the current situation,” Parker said.

Many major technology firms—including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla—pay very small dividends or none at all, as they prioritize reinvesting profits into growth. This dynamic pulls down the overall average dividend yield of the index.

At the same time, the market has changed the way companies return capital to shareholders. Instead of dividends, firms increasingly rely on share buybacks, which also contributes to lower income yields without necessarily reducing total returns.

For income-focused investors, this trend presents a major challenge. With yields close to 1%, significantly more capital is required to generate meaningful income. It also pushes investors to take on more risk or look beyond the index for alternatives, such as high-dividend stocks or bonds.

Trump Warns of 50% Tariffs on Countries Arming Iran

Posted on April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

After agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, the U.S. president is once again using tariffs as a tool to try to impose his terms in the Middle East conflict.

Trump may be ending the war in Iran soon, and stock futures are climbing on the news.

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, threatened to impose 50% tariffs on any country supplying weapons to Iran. The move comes within the framework of the ceasefire he announced Tuesday night, when he suspended U.S. attacks on the country for two weeks.

“Any country that supplies military weapons to Iran will be immediately subject to a 50% tariff on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!” Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Trump accepts a truce in exchange for reopening oil flows in Hormuz

“The United States will work closely with Iran, a country which, as we have observed, has undergone a very productive regime change. There will be no uranium enrichment, and the United States, in cooperation with Iran, will excavate and remove all deeply buried nuclear remnants (from B-2 bombers),” Trump said.

He added: “These remnants are, and have been, under strict satellite surveillance (Space Force). Nothing has been touched since the strike. We are, and will continue, negotiating with Iran on reducing tariffs and sanctions. Many of the 15 points have already been agreed.”

Following the postponement of the ultimatum, the Israeli military said Iran had launched missiles toward its territory. The armed forces stated that they had “identified missiles launched from Iran toward the territory of the State of Israel” and that defense systems were being activated to intercept the threat.

Morgan Stanley Sees S&P 500 Bottom, Recommends Two Key Sectors

Posted on April 8, 2026April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

With valuations compressed, market sentiment still negative, and corporate earnings holding up, the bank sees an opportunity to reposition portfolios toward cyclical sectors and themes linked to artificial intelligence.

The S&P 500 may be starting to form a bottom amid a backdrop of lower valuations, cautious investor sentiment, and corporate results that continue to show resilience. That is the conclusion of a recent report by Morgan Stanley, which suggests investors take advantage of this environment to adjust portfolio positioning.

According to the bank, current conditions open a window to increase exposure to cyclical sectors and high-quality growth companies. Within the cyclical universe, the report highlights financial institutions in particular, noting that they combine more attractive valuations with earnings prospects that remain relatively resilient.

Why banks could present an opportunity

The report points out that bank stocks have been under pressure amid concerns about disruption from artificial intelligence and the rapid expansion of private credit. However, Morgan Stanley believes these risks are overstated, improving the sector’s relative appeal.

At the same time, the bank sees opportunities within the high-quality growth segment, particularly among large technology infrastructure providers—the so-called hyperscalers—and, more broadly, the group known as the Magnificent Seven.

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According to the analysis, these companies are currently trading at multiples close to those of the consumer staples sector—around 24 times earnings versus roughly 22 times for that defensive segment. However, their expected earnings growth is more than triple that of those companies, reinforcing their long-term potential.

Thematic strategies: where the market sees value

Beyond sector allocation, Morgan Stanley also focuses on thematic strategies that have outperformed the S&P 500 in both 2026 and 2025. In this context, the bank recommends a selective approach toward areas with strong return potential.

Among them, it highlights the defense sector and several healthcare-related verticals, including the convergence of artificial intelligence and medicine, demographic aging, and the so-called “diabesity” ecosystem.

The bank also maintains a positive view on companies that integrate artificial intelligence into their operations and possess clear competitive advantages, such as high barriers to entry or strong pricing power.

In line with this trend, the report emphasizes the attractiveness of infrastructure tied to artificial intelligence, including energy development and power grid expansion needed to support its growth. As an emerging theme, it also mentions the advance of humanoid robotics.

Overall, the strategy combines a short-term market reading—suggesting the market may be stabilizing—with a focus on structural sectors and trends that Morgan Stanley believes offer the most compelling opportunities in the current environment.

WTI Oil Plunges 17% as Wall Street Futures Jump

Posted on April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Crude prices plunged while financial assets rebounded after the U.S. president announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran, easing market concerns about disruptions to global energy flows.

Crude Oil crashes as Traders React to the ceasefire.

Oil prices fell by as much as 17% and Wall Street futures jumped up to 3.3% after Donald Trump, president of the United States, said he had agreed to a ceasefire with Iran.

The May futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $12.04, or 16.7%, to $94.07 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude had closed the session down 5.8% at $103.42 per barrel.

The announcement came shortly before the deadline Trump had set for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes.

Trump said the agreement was conditional on Iran suspending its blockade of oil and gas shipments through the strait, which typically handles around one-fifth of global oil flows.

“Based on the conversations held with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (…) in which they asked me to stop the destructive force that was going to be sent tonight to Iran, and provided that the Islamic Republic of Iran accepts the FULL, IMMEDIATE and SAFE reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombings and attacks against Iran for a period of two weeks,” Trump wrote on social media.

“This will be a reciprocal CEASEFIRE,” he added.

EU Growth Slumps to 9-Month Low

Posted on April 7, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The sharp drop in the services sector dragged down overall activity across the European bloc. Demand weakened, while input prices recorded their largest increase in more than three years.

The war in the Middle East has already begun to take a toll on the economy of the European Union (EU), which recorded its weakest expansion in nine months. The data, covering the private sector in the Eurozone for March, pointed to a significantly weakened services sector, along with a decline in new orders and a sharp rise in input prices.

The Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index compiled by S&P Global fell to 50.7 last month from 51.9 in February, marking the slowest growth rate since June 2025. The reading remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, but came in well below the historical average of 52.4.

According to Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, the figure “indicates that the eurozone economy has already been severely affected by the war in the Middle East.”

He added: “The encouraging signs of growth seen at the start of the year have faded due to soaring energy prices, supply chain disruptions, volatility in financial markets, and a renewed decline in demand.”

Williamson warned that “there are clear risks of economic contraction in the second quarter if the conflict is not resolved quickly. Even if it is, we are likely to see negative repercussions in the energy market that could last for several months.” He also said the situation “raises the unwanted specter of stagflation—or possibly something worse—in the short term.”

The S&P Global report noted that the services sector was primarily responsible for the slowdown in overall expansion in March, as activity levels barely increased during the latest survey period, registering a reading of 50.2. Meanwhile, manufacturing output growth remained solid.

Fewer orders and rising inflation

After a sustained period of improving demand, March saw a decline in total new orders across the eurozone, driven by a drop in orders received by services companies.

New export orders, which include trade within the eurozone, also declined in March, although the pace of contraction was moderate. By contrast, manufacturing export volumes nearly stabilized, highlighting a sharper slowdown in demand from foreign clients for services—the steepest in six months.

Employment losses also accelerated, reaching the fastest pace in thirteen months. This was mainly due to a sharper drop in manufacturing employment, although the decline remained marginal. The uptick in job losses coincided with weakening business expectations, as optimism fell in March for the first time since December 2025 amid a broad decline in confidence.

Input cost inflation also surged, reaching its highest level in just over three years. The manufacturing sector experienced a sharp rise in price pressures, with its purchasing price index jumping nearly eleven points from February—an unprecedented monthly increase.

Services companies also faced sharply rising costs, and March recorded the strongest overall increase in eurozone output prices for goods and services since February 2024.

France Moves Gold Reserves from the U.S. to the EU

Posted on April 7, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Instead of refining and transporting the older gold from the United States, the institution decided to sell it and purchase new bullion that complies with the international standards currently used in the European market.

The Bank of France sold part of its gold reserves that had been stored at the Federal Reserve in New York. Rather than transporting the metal, it bought an equivalent amount in Europe, allowing it to generate a profit of €12.8 billion.

France’s gold reserves currently total about 2,437 tonnes, considered the fourth-largest in the world, and are now entirely held in Paris. Of this total, around 134 tonnes correspond to old bullion bars and coins that the Bank of France plans to modernize so they meet current standards by 2028.

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How the operation to move the gold from the U.S. to Europe worked

Instead of refining and transporting the older gold from the United States, the institution opted to sell it and acquire new bars that meet the international standards currently used in the European market.

The transaction was carried out through 26 separate operations between July 2025 and early 2026.

The bank sold 129 tonnes of gold—around 5% of France’s total gold reserves—which represented the last holdings that remained in New York. All French gold reserves are now located in Paris.

France has stated that it wants all of its reserves to be held exclusively in its capital. The decision strengthens the autonomy of the French financial system at a time of rising tensions and shifting alliances within the Western world.

SpaceX IPO: New Details Emerge Ahead of June

Posted on April 7, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

SpaceX revealed new details about its long-awaited initial public offering during a meeting held Monday night with its team of bankers, informing them that it intends to allocate a large portion of the shares to retail investors.

SpaceX is shifted some of its Bitcoin before the IPO.

In that regard, the company will host about 1,500 of them at an event scheduled for June, after the IPO roadshow begins, according to two people familiar with the matter.

“The retail market will be a fundamental part of this and will have a larger weight than in any IPO in history,” Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said during the virtual meeting. Johnsen added that the strong retail component is intentional, noting that “these are people who have supported us—and Elon Musk—incredibly for a long time, and we want to make sure that is recognized.”

The long-awaited market debut for Elon Musk

SpaceX is rewriting the playbook for initial public offerings with an unusually large share of retail investors in the deal, according to a report by Reuters last month.

The meeting brought together the full group of banks for the first time as part of the process for what is expected to become the largest IPO in history. The rocket manufacturer aims to raise about $75 billion, which could value SpaceX at up to $1.75 trillion.

The company led by Elon Musk plans to begin its roadshow during the week of June 8, when executives and bankers will present the IPO to investors, the sources said. Around 125 financial analysts from the 21 banks participating in the deal are scheduled to meet with the company the day before, they added.

The European Central Bank to Set Policy Based on the War

Posted on April 6, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Through a member of its Governing Council, the institution confirmed that energy pressures stemming from the war could lead to a more restrictive stance.

The conflict in the Middle East continues to ripple through the global economy. Yannis Stournaras, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and governor of the Bank of Greece, said Monday that the appropriate monetary policy for the euro area will depend on the scale and nature of energy supply disruptions caused by the war involving the United States, Iran and Israel.

Speaking at the annual shareholders’ meeting of the Bank of Greece in Athens, Stournaras noted that if the surge in energy prices proves temporary, the need for monetary tightening would likely remain limited.

However, he added that a more restrictive policy stance could become necessary if higher energy prices prove stronger and more persistent, particularly if they begin to affect medium-term inflation expectations and wage dynamics across the euro area.

Signs the war could be nearing an end?

For more than a week, Donald Trump has delivered mixed messages about the conflict. At times, he has suggested that negotiations with Tehran are advancing toward a ceasefire, while at other moments he has hinted at further military action in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. president has recently intensified pressure on Iran, issuing an ultimatum demanding that the strategic waterway be reopened before Tuesday. Tehran has rejected the demand, raising the prospect of new attacks and additional measures targeting energy resources.

Global Inflation: 34% of Companies Passing Costs to Consumers

Posted on April 6, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

A private report shows that more companies are increasingly passing the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on to prices, amid regulatory uncertainty and falling sales.

Trade policies promoted by Donald Trump are beginning to hit consumers more directly. According to a survey by KPMG, a growing number of large companies have already passed most of those costs on to final prices and expect further increases in the coming months.

The survey, conducted among 300 senior executives at companies with revenue above $1 billion, shows that 34% of firms are already transferring most tariff costs to consumers. That figure marks a sharp increase from 21% in September 2025 and 13% in May of the same year, shortly after the tougher trade policy was announced.

In addition, more than half of respondents (55%) expect price increases of at least 15% over the next six months, as cost pressures remain elevated.

Price increases beyond tariffs

The report also warns that cost pass-through is not limited to products directly affected by trade measures. Some 37% of companies said they raised prices on goods not subject to tariffs, while 19% implemented increases that exceeded the direct impact of higher import costs.

“The burden of tariffs is now falling directly on consumers. While companies initially absorbed the hit in their margins, most are now reconfiguring pricing strategies for a world of persistent cost pressures,” said Brian Higgins, head of industrial manufacturing at KPMG in the United States.

Falling sales and weaker activity

Tighter trade policy is also beginning to show up in business activity. According to the survey, 82% of companies reported a decline in export sales, while 61% said domestic sales in the United States had fallen.

These figures reinforce concerns about the economic impact of trade tensions, particularly as rising prices risk weighing on consumer demand.

The outlook has become even more uncertain following a recent ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that declared some of Trump’s tariffs illegal. However, the former president has signaled he will seek to reintroduce similar measures under different legal frameworks. After the ruling, the government moved ahead with a global 10% tariff that can only remain in place for up to 150 days under current regulations.

Uncertainty remains over the scope of future measures. Sectors such as retail and consumer goods appear particularly difficult to target, given complex production chains and the wide range of products involved.