Wall Street Posts Broad Losses as the Risk of a New U.S. Shutdown

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Political noise surrounding the renewed delay in approving the U.S. budget is raising the risk of another government shutdown.

Wall Street Wobbles as Overvaluation Worries and Macro Uncertainty Hit Sentiment

This comes on top of fresh attacks by Donald Trump against the Fed chair and renewed threats of military action against Iran. On the corporate front, Microsoft’s earnings triggered a shake-up across the technology sector.

Major Wall Street indexes closed mostly lower on Thursday, as investor sentiment was weighed down in large part by a sell-off in Microsoft shares following the release of its quarterly results, which rippled through software and tech services stocks. At the same time, Trump renewed his calls for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the specter of another U.S. government shutdown resurfaced. Markets were also unsettled by the latest White House statements regarding Iran.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 49,071.56 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 6,963.76; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7% to 23,685.12.

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The Federal Reserve holds rates steady

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts. In its policy statement, the Fed pointed to still-elevated inflation, solid economic growth, and a stabilizing labor market, offering little guidance on the timing of future cuts.

Overall, the Fed struck a more optimistic tone on the economy. Subtle changes in the FOMC statement slightly improved the Committee’s assessment of labor market conditions and signaled somewhat reduced concern about inflationary pressures.

Although the Fed did not update its dot plot at this meeting, analysts noted a growing alignment between the central bank and financial markets—reflected in federal funds futures—regarding the likelihood of one to two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end.

“With this alignment between the Fed and financial markets, the risk that monetary policy negatively impacts equity markets heading into the second half of the year is reduced,” one analyst said.

Another U.S. government shutdown?

Talks to avert another U.S. government shutdown intensified in Washington, D.C., over the past several hours, with a potential agreement appearing increasingly close.

Spurred by the death of 37-year-old Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, Democrats are pushing to strip funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) from a $1.2 trillion spending bill unless additional oversight measures are included.

If no deal is reached, a second government shutdown in just a few months would begin one minute after midnight on Friday, January 30.

Mexican Peso Weakens After Hitting Its Best Level of the Year

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso pulled back after earlier hitting its strongest level of the year, as traders positioned themselves ahead of key data releases.

The Mexican peso weakened against the U.S. dollar in Thursday’s session. The local currency retreated after touching its best level so far this year earlier in the day, as market participants brace for the release of Mexico’s GDP data scheduled for Friday.

The exchange rate closed at 17.2333 pesos per dollar. Compared with Wednesday’s close of 17.2178, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the move represented a loss of 1.55 centavos, or 0.09%.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

During the session, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 17.3463 pesos and a low of 17.1117, a level not seen since June 2024. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.19% to 96.17.

Targeting the 17.00 level

The peso extended its gains against the dollar during overnight trading but later faced resistance near the 17.20 level. Despite the pullback, analysts continue to see room for further appreciation amid ongoing weakness in the U.S. currency.

“We expect the recovery bias to remain in place. A break below the resistance at 17.10 would reinforce the peso’s appreciation. In that case, the next key technical level would be 17.00,” analysts said.

Focus on GDP and USMCA

After several days in which attention centered on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, local FX traders are now turning to the preliminary release of Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP). A rebound is expected in the final quarter of 2025.

Markets are also preparing for renewed discussions over the review of the USMCA trade agreement, after Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer agreed on Wednesday to push forward structural reforms to the pact.

Overall, the peso’s strength against the dollar is expected to persist. China’s willingness to deepen trade ties with U.S. neighbors is seen as a key factor in upcoming USMCA negotiations.

On the data front, the number of Americans filing initial jobless claims fell modestly last week, signaling continued labor market resilience. Claims declined by 1,000 to 209,000.

Donald Trump Calls Jerome Powell an “Imbecile”

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. president renewed his attacks on the Fed chair after the central bank announced it would leave monetary policy unchanged.

Trump appointed Powell in the first place.

Trump argued that, thanks to tariff revenues, the United States should have “substantially lower” interest rates.

U.S. President Donald Trump lashed out again on Thursday at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump demanded a “substantial” rate cut and said the United States should have “the lowest interest rates in the world.”

In a lengthy post, Trump—who referred to Powell as “Too Late”—accused him of “hurting the country and its national security” by maintaining current benchmark rates. The criticism came just 24 hours after the Fed reaffirmed its monetary policy stance without changes.

The White House occupant said there was “absolutely no reason” to keep rates at their current level, especially because “even this imbecile admits that inflation is no longer a problem or a threat.” According to Trump, high interest rates are costing the U.S. economy “hundreds of billions of dollars a year” in interest expenses, which he described as “completely unnecessary and unjustified.”

The link between tariffs and interest rates

Trump tied his demand for lower rates to his tariff strategy, arguing that “because of the vast amounts of money flowing into the country from tariffs,” the United States should lead the world with the most competitive interest rates.

He described other countries as “cash machines paying low interest rates” that appear “sleek, solid, and first-class only because the United States allows it.” Trump claimed he had been “very kind, gracious, and gentle” with other nations on trade, but warned that “with the stroke of a pen,” trillions of additional dollars could flow into U.S. coffers.

To conclude, Trump said that “tariffs have once again made the United States strong and powerful” and reiterated his demand that the Federal Reserve “substantially cut interest rates — NOW!”

Oil Jumps 4% After Donald Trump Warns Iran; Gold Continues Rally

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Rising tensions between the United States and Iran are once again rattling global markets. Gold set a fresh all-time high, driven by strong safe-haven demand and a weaker U.S. dollar.

Gold prices surged again on Thursday, reaching a new record near $5,600 per ounce, while oil prices also advanced after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a potential military strike against Iran.

Supported by dollar weakness, renewed interest in precious metals—traditionally viewed as safe-haven assets during periods of market uncertainty—also pushed silver briefly to a session high.

At one point during the session, gold jumped more than $300, climbing above $5,595 per ounce after Trump stated that Tehran must negotiate an agreement over its nuclear program, which Western powers believe is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

“Let’s hope Iran quickly comes to the table and negotiates a fair and equitable deal — NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS — that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly essential!” the Republican leader wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“The next attack will be much worse! Don’t let that happen again,” he added, referring to U.S. airstrikes carried out in June against several Iranian nuclear facilities. A U.S. naval strike group that Trump described as an “armada,” led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, is currently operating in Middle Eastern waters.

The U.S. president said he was “ready, willing, and able to carry out the mission quickly, with speed and force, if necessary.”

CNN reported that the administration is considering a strike following the breakdown of nuclear negotiations.

Safe havens and oil rally

On another front, escalating geopolitical tensions also pushed oil prices up nearly 4%. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to its highest level in four months, while North Sea Brent rose to levels not seen since July, amid growing supply concerns.

[[USOIL-graph]]

In Asian trading, equity markets advanced in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, and Seoul, while Tokyo finished flat.

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure as well, even after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that “the United States has always maintained a strong-dollar policy,” a day after Trump appeared to welcome the currency’s recent weakness.

Gold Soars to Fresh Records as Bitcoin Lags at $89,000

Posted on January 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The leading cryptocurrency continues to slide, while gold soars to historic levels.

Bitcoin swung down fast after a quick climb to $90K.

The cryptocurrency market is trading with modest gains on Wednesday. Bitcoin (BTC) reversed earlier advances and is down 1.3% at $88,920, while Ethereum (ETH) is also lower, slipping 0.5% to $3,008.45.

Altcoins are following the same trend, led by Solana (SOL), which is down 4.4%, followed by XRP, off 3.1%, and Cardano, down 3.7%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin weakens as gold keeps climbing

Amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, gold has reached fresh all-time highs and continues to strengthen as a safe-haven asset amid a weakening U.S. dollar—a dynamic that has weighed on Bitcoin.

Against this backdrop, market research firm Yardeni Research published a comparative analysis of gold and the leading cryptocurrency, noting that Bitcoin exists solely in digital form and may be vulnerable to future technological threats, whereas gold must be physically stored.

After gold surpassed $3,000 in early 2025, the firm began projecting a move toward $10,000 by the end of the decade. “That would represent a fivefold increase from its breakout to new highs in 2024,” Yardeni said.

When U.S. President Donald Trump remarked that “the dollar is doing a great job,” Yardeni interpreted the comment as a tacit endorsement of a weaker currency. As a result, the firm concluded: “A weaker dollar could put upward pressure on U.S. inflation, which would also support higher gold prices.”

Traditional markets

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday, January 28, giving up earlier gains that briefly pushed the benchmark S&P 500 above the historic 7,000-point level for the first time. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq finished the session at a fresh record high. Investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision—which confirmed interest rates would remain unchanged—and key earnings reports from major technology companies.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.02% to 49,015.54 points; the S&P 500 slipped 0.01% to 6,978.04; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 23,857.45.

[[SPX-graph]]

Cryptocurrencies Enabled $82 Billion in Money Laundering in 2025

Posted on January 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Blockchains publicly record the addresses involved in every cryptoasset transaction, but identifying the real individuals behind those operations remains highly complex.

Bitcoin enabled millions of dollar of money laundering.

A private report revealed that money laundering through cryptocurrencies reached at least $82 billion in 2025, a figure that marks a sharp increase from the roughly $10 billion estimated in 2020.

This surge has turned illicit crypto transactions into a growing concern for global financial authorities and regulators.

According to a recent report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, the increase is not only quantitative but also qualitative. While blockchains provide public records of transaction addresses, linking those addresses to real-world identities is difficult, significantly complicating oversight and enforcement efforts.

Despite the technical traceability offered by blockchain technology, the sophisticated methods employed by criminal networks continue to hinder the identification of illicit actors.

Chinese-language blockchain networks dominate the phenomenon

One of the report’s most striking findings is the explosive growth of so-called “Chinese-language money laundering networks” (CMLN).

These organizations, which began to consolidate during the pandemic, processed approximately $16.1 billion in 2025 through nearly 1,800 active wallets—equivalent to about $44 million per day in illicit funds. Altogether, these networks accounted for roughly 20% of all identified crypto money laundering volume that year.

The expansion of these networks has been extraordinary. According to some analyses, flows into CMLNs grew thousands of times faster than other laundering channels traditionally associated with centralized exchanges or decentralized finance (DeFi).

Techniques and regulatory evasion

These networks rely on a variety of techniques to evade detection. Among the most prominent are so-called “guarantee platforms,” which operate as escrow-like services, allowing money launderers to offer or locate laundering services with greater ease and a certain degree of anonymity.

Through these systems, criminals can fragment, move, and convert illicit funds across multiple stages, making it far more difficult for authorities to trace transactions.

Although countries such as China have banned cryptocurrency trading and prosecuted thousands of individuals linked to crypto money laundering, these networks continue to persist and evolve, adapting to regulatory pressure and migrating to alternative channels when confronted with enforcement actions.

The global nature of cryptocurrencies, combined with the lack of a uniform international regulatory framework, continues to complicate supervision and control efforts.

SpaceX Weighs an IPO Valuing the Company at $1.5 Trillion by June 2026

Posted on January 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Elon Musk’s technology company is seeking private investors and aims to raise up to $50 billion.

SpaceX's value is massively increasing ahead of its public offering. — SpaceX’s value is massively increasing ahead of its public offering.

Elon Musk’s aerospace manufacturer SpaceX is weighing an initial public offering (IPO) as early as mid-June, with the goal of raising up to $50 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, according to the Financial Times.

Its chief financial officer, Bret Johnsen, has also been holding discussions with existing private investors since mid-December to explore a potential public listing by mid-2026. Along those lines, Reuters reported last week that SpaceX is lining up four Wall Street banks to serve as lead underwriters for its market debut.

The largest IPO in history

Following Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion IPO in 2019, SpaceX would surpass that benchmark by a wide margin, making it the largest public offering ever.

The news comes amid rapid growth in the space economy. In 2024, the sector reached a record $613 billion, driven by the expansion of commercial activities, which accounted for nearly 78% of the total. In 2025, private investment in space technology jumped 48% to $12.4 billion, including $3.8 billion in the fourth quarter alone.

Federal Reserve Meeting

Unlike on other occasions, this Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting will not hinge on the monetary policy decision itself, which is expected to be made by the central bank’s rate-setting committee, but rather on what Chair Jerome Powell says during the press conference that follows. Powell’s term expires in May, leaving him with three meetings remaining before stepping down.

While this would normally be a routine situation, it has gained increasing prominence since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, particularly because it remains unclear who the president will nominate to replace Powell. The Republican leader repeatedly criticized Powell for months over his reluctance to cut interest rates more aggressively and even launched a judicial investigation into him over alleged misuse of funds.

Gold Extends Its Historic Rally, Surpassing $5,200

Posted on January 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Like the yellow metal, silver, platinum, and palladium are also posting strong gains.

Gold has once again reached record highs amid a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar to near four-year lows, driven by persistent geopolitical concerns and ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming monetary policy decision.

In that context, gold is up 3.5% at $5,260 per ounce after hitting an all-time high of $5,266.37. The metal has risen more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

Along the same lines, spot silver jumped 7.75% to $114.20 per ounce, after reaching a record high of $117.69 on Monday. The white metal is up nearly 60% year-to-date. Spot platinum advanced 1.7% to $2,685.16 per ounce after touching a record $2,918.80 on Monday, while palladium gained 0.7% to $1,946.75.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Dollar weakness, the key driver behind gold’s surge

The rally in gold is largely explained by its strong inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar. Recent comments by Donald Trump in response to an informal question about the dollar suggest a broad consensus within the White House in favor of a weaker greenback going forward.

U.S. consumer confidence plunged in January to its lowest level in more than 11 and a half years, while the dollar has fallen to its weakest level in four years.

At the same time, uncertainty is building in the U.S. economy amid tensions at the Fed, which is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January, and speculation surrounding Trump’s potential appointment of a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell.

Long-Term U.S. Treasuries are Back on Investors’ Radar

Posted on January 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Wall Street strategy is emerging just as most market participants had expected longer-dated bonds to remain under pressure in 2026.

Long-term bond yields are attractive again.

In the vast U.S. Treasury market—worth more than $30 trillion—a group of contrarian Wall Street investors is spotting a buying opportunity following the recent sell-off that pushed long-term yields to levels not seen in months.

Those yields, which reflect borrowing costs across different maturities, climbed to nearly 5% on 30-year Treasuries, a threshold that some asset managers now view as highly attractive for initiating long positions.

This contrarian approach—positioning against the prevailing market consensus—comes at a time when most investors had expected longer-maturity bonds to remain under pressure in 2026, particularly relative to shorter-dated securities.

Why Wall Street is warming to long-dated bonds

Until recently, the dominant view was that the yield curve would flatten or steepen in a way that favored shorter-duration assets, based on expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates on hold without additional cuts in the near term.

However, the recent move in yields has created what some investors see as an attractive entry point at the long end of the curve. For many, the 5% yield on the 30-year Treasury has become a clear “line in the sand.” Until that level is reached decisively, some managers prefer to position more heavily in the 10-year segment.

A contrarian bet

This countercyclical strategy is based on the view that markets may have over-discounted the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Fed, especially given that inflation remains relatively elevated.

If the central bank stays firm and refrains from easing policy for several months, longer-term yields could stabilize and eventually decline—generating capital gains for investors who buy at current levels.

In addition, some managers believe there may be an implicit government backstop if long-term yields rise too sharply, reinforcing the idea that current yield levels could represent a compelling entry point for long-duration bonds.

Bank of America Flags a Potential Gold Bubble

Posted on January 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The rally in the precious metal is accelerating amid a weak dollar and heightened global uncertainty, but BofA warns that market overheating is increasing the likelihood of extreme price swings.

Gold continues to notch fresh record highs and this week climbed above $5,000 an ounce—a threshold the market had not expected to reach until later in the year. The scale and speed of the move have raised red flags. Bank of America (BofA) warned that the rally is increasing bubble risks and raising the probability of sharp moves in both directions.

According to the bank’s report, its Bubble Risk Indicator (BRI) for gold is approaching 1, a level historically associated with overheating dynamics in asset prices. BofA said the rise in the indicator reflects a combination of elevated global uncertainty, dollar weakness, and a surge in implied volatility—factors that have propelled the metal to new highs.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

While the bank acknowledges that this environment continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, it cautions that it also increases the risk of abrupt corrections, even as further extensions of the rally cannot be ruled out. In particular, BofA noted that implied volatility in gold has jumped as the market has become more “exuberant,” making traditional bullish positioning strategies increasingly expensive.

Gold faces rising volatility risks

BofA added that gold’s performance has been one of the main catalysts behind the recent rise in stress across commodity markets, with implied volatility posting its largest weekly increase since March 2020. This move occurred alongside a pickup in stress in currency markets and a sharp decline in the dollar—a combination that has historically favored the precious metal.

Against this backdrop, the bank concludes that while gold’s appeal as a safe haven remains intact amid geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty, the breach of the $5,000 level clearly raises bubble risks and points to a more volatile and less linear price path in the months ahead.