World’s Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Loses $135 Billion in First Quarter

Posted on April 24, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Government Pension Fund Global, reported losses of 1.27 trillion Norwegian kroner (approximately $135 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, hit by global market volatility and a stronger domestic currency.

By the end of March, the fund—built on Norway’s oil revenues and invested across global asset classes—had total assets of 19.99 trillion kroner, or about $2.1 trillion.

Deputy CEO Trond Grande said the results “reflect a quarter marked by challenging market conditions.”

He noted that while fixed income and real estate had a limited impact, the main driver of losses was the decline in equities—particularly large U.S. technology stocks.

This was compounded by the appreciation of the Norwegian krone against major global currencies, which led to an additional valuation loss of 646 billion kroner.

Performance by asset class

Overall, the fund posted a negative return of 1.9% for the quarter. Equities, which account for 70.2% of the portfolio, contributed most to the decline with a 2.6% drop.

Fixed income—representing 27.6% of assets—declined marginally by 0.2%, while real estate (1.8% of the portfolio) was the only positive segment, rising 1.2%.

Unlisted renewable energy infrastructure investments, which make up the remaining 0.4%, fell 1.9%.

The fund holds stakes in roughly 8,500 companies worldwide and owns, on average, about 1.5% of all listed companies globally.

Wall Street Pulls Back Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

Posted on April 24, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Stocks on Wall Street closed lower on Thursday as investors remained cautious amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, with limited signs of progress in ongoing negotiations.

The Middle East continues to be problematic.

The three major New York indices ended in negative territory, as geopolitical concerns outweighed a generally solid start to the earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37% to 49,309.33, the S&P 500 dropped 0.41% to 7,108.97, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.89% to 24,438.50.

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Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate

Despite earlier comments from Donald Trump about extending the ceasefire, tensions rose due to increased naval activity around the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. military announced the seizure of an Iranian-linked oil tanker, while the Department of Defense released images allegedly showing U.S. troops aboard the vessel in the Indian Ocean. Iran, in turn, published footage appearing to show its forces boarding a cargo ship near the strait.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the blockade as an “act of war,” while Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said a full ceasefire would only make sense if it were not undermined by maritime restrictions.

On Thursday, Trump said he had ordered the U.S. Navy to “fire upon and destroy any vessel” attempting to lay mines in the strait. In a separate statement, he claimed the U.S. had “total control” over the waterway, adding that no ship could pass without American approval.

Meanwhile, mediators from Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are working to revive talks, potentially organizing a meeting on Friday, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal. However, progress remains limited, with both sides communicating through intermediaries.

Oil back above $100

Oil prices continued to climb, extending strong weekly gains. Brent crude rose 1.4% to $103.33 per barrel after surpassing the $100 mark on Wednesday.

[[USOIL-graph]]

“It’s difficult for markets to stay positive as Brent climbs back above the psychological $100 threshold,” said Danni Hewson of AJ Bell.

Mixed economic data

Economic data showed mixed signals. According to S&P Global, U.S. business activity rebounded in April after nearly stalling in March due to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 214,000 last week, slightly above expectations of 211,000. Continuing claims increased to 1.82 million.

Earnings provide some support

Despite geopolitical headwinds, corporate earnings have been broadly solid. Data from Bloomberg show that nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten analyst expectations, helping to cushion market losses.

Warren Buffett Sold Nearly 80% of His Amazon Stake

Posted on April 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Warren Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, sharply reduced its exposure to major tech stocks, including a significant cut to its position in Amazon.

NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 19: Philanthropist Warren Buffett is joined onstage by 24 other philanthropist and influential business people featured on the Forbes list of 100 Greatest Business Minds during the Forbes Media Centennial Celebration at Pier 60 on September 19, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Daniel Zuchnik/WireImage)

In one of his final moves at the helm, Buffett surprised markets by slashing Berkshire’s stake in Amazon by roughly 77%. According to regulatory filings, the firm sold more than 7 million shares, worth approximately $1.8 billion.

The decision came in the fourth quarter of 2025—the last under Buffett’s direct leadership as CEO. During that period, Berkshire broadly trimmed its exposure to large technology companies, including adjustments to Apple and other holdings.

The Amazon reduction brought Berkshire’s position down from around 10 million shares to just over 2 million, marking one of the most significant portfolio exits in recent quarters.

Why Buffett cut Amazon

Although Amazon was a relatively late addition to Berkshire’s portfolio—initiated in 2019—the move does not necessarily signal a negative view on the business. Instead, it reflects valuation discipline and a broader portfolio rebalancing in a demanding market environment.

At the same time, Berkshire initiated a new position in The New York Times Company, acquiring more than 5 million shares for roughly $350 million.

The shift reflects a “classic” Buffett approach: favoring businesses with stable revenues, strong brands, and subscription-based models. The New York Times fits that profile, with steady growth in digital subscribers and improving revenue trends.

The investment has already delivered short-term gains, with the stock rising meaningfully after Berkshire’s entry.

More broadly, the rotation away from Amazon highlights Buffett’s late-stage focus on understandable businesses with clear competitive advantages—while reducing exposure to companies more dependent on large-scale technological bets and heavy investment cycles.

Tesla Reports Better-Than-Expected Earnings, but Shares Fall

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Tesla reported first-quarter results on Wednesday, April 22, beating Wall Street expectations despite continued weakness in its core automotive business.

However, the stock fell around 2–2.5% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor concerns about underlying trends.

The results come at a time of growing tension between the company’s current business slowdown and its ambitious long-term bets on artificial intelligence infrastructure, autonomous vehicles, and commercial robotics.

Mixed results, but above expectations

Tesla posted revenue of approximately $22.4 billion, down about 10% from $24.9 billion in the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings per share came in at around $0.41—above expectations but below the prior quarter’s $0.50.

Gross margin, a key focus for investors, improved slightly by 1%, surprising markets that had expected a decline from the previous 20.1%. Meanwhile, EBITDA fell to roughly $3.67 billion from over $4.15 billion in the prior quarter.

[[TSLA/USD-graph]]

Free cash flow edged higher to about $1.44 billion, up slightly from $1.42 billion, despite increased investment levels.

Automotive weakness weighs

Despite the earnings beat, several indicators showed clear deterioration—largely driven by the automotive segment.

Vehicle deliveries dropped 14% quarter-over-quarter, amid weaker global demand for electric vehicles, rising competition—particularly from Chinese manufacturers—and the gradual phaseout of subsidies such as the $7,500 U.S. tax credit, which had previously supported demand. Registrations in California, one of Tesla’s key markets, also fell by more than 20%.

As a result, the gap between production and deliveries widened again, raising concerns about demand absorption and the potential need for further price cuts—putting pressure on margins.

Other segments and long-term strategy

Tesla’s energy generation and storage business, which had helped offset automotive weakness in recent years, unexpectedly contracted by 12% year-over-year.

At the same time, the services and software segment continues to gain importance, particularly through initiatives like Full Self-Driving (FSD), the company’s advanced driver-assistance system offered via monthly subscription. This model not only generates recurring revenue but also connects with other businesses such as insurance and digital services.

Market reaction

Despite beating consensus estimates, the market reaction was negative. The after-hours decline reflects concerns about the company’s deteriorating fundamentals compared to previous periods, as well as broader skepticism about its ability to execute on long-term growth narratives.

Tesla shares are already down करीब 20% from their December highs, underscoring investor caution as the company navigates a more challenging operating environment.

Wall Street Hits New Records After Ceasefire Extension Between United States and Iran

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, lifted by the extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, while investors also focused on the ongoing first-quarter earnings season.

The US military may be ending the fight in Iran soon, and investors are hopeful.

In this context, major New York indices closed with strong gains and hit fresh all-time highs, despite a backdrop still shaped by geopolitical uncertainty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.69% to 49,490.77 points, the S&P 500 gained 1.03% to 7,137.12, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.64% to 24,657.57.

[[SPX-graph]]

Middle East ceasefire boosts sentiment

The day’s momentum was driven by Donald Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran for two more weeks, following the collapse of recent peace talks.

The announcement came after reports that Vice President J. D. Vance canceled a planned trip to Pakistan and that Iran had opted out of further negotiations.

Still, Trump left the door open for renewed dialogue, saying talks could resume in the coming days—helping support investor optimism.

However, officials in Tehran have maintained a firm stance, and there has been no official confirmation of a new round of negotiations, leaving tensions in the region unresolved.

Oil surge revives inflation concerns

At the same time, crude prices moved higher again. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel, driven by the Middle East conflict.

The rebound in oil has reignited concerns in markets, as it could fuel global inflation, weigh on economic growth, and complicate central banks’ rate outlook.

Strong retail sales in the U.S.

On the macro front, U.S. retail sales surprised to the upside. In March, the indicator rose 1.7%, marking the largest increase in a year.

Much of the gain was driven by a 15.5% jump in fuel spending amid higher energy prices. Excluding that category, sales rose a more modest 0.6%.

Economists caution, however, that part of this strength may be temporary, supported by tax refunds and a pull-forward in consumer spending.

Mixed corporate earnings

On the corporate side, earnings season brought mixed reactions:

United Airlines fell 5.5% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance.
GE Vernova surged more than 13.5% after raising its revenue outlook.
AT&T slipped 0.4% despite adding more subscribers than expected.
Boeing gained 5.5% after reporting a smaller-than-expected loss.
Tesla traded slightly higher ahead of its earnings release.

Markets between geopolitics and fundamentals

After recovering pre-conflict levels, markets appear to be pricing in a less adverse scenario in the Middle East.

Still, analysts warn that volatility is likely to persist, driven by the evolution of negotiations, oil price dynamics, and the trajectory of global inflation.

For now, investors are betting that the worst of the conflict may be over—but uncertainty remains a key factor shaping market direction.

UK Inflation Rises to 3.3%, Reaching Highest Level of 2026

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Rising energy costs following the conflict in the Middle East pushed prices higher in March, complicating the outlook for the Bank of England, which now faces a dilemma between keeping rates elevated or supporting an economy showing signs of slowing.

Inflation in the United Kingdom accelerated again in March, reaching its highest level so far in 2026, driven mainly by a sharp increase in fuel prices after the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.3% year-over-year—up 0.3 percentage points from February and in line with market expectations. The data highlights how the conflict in a key oil-producing region is once again feeding into developed economies through higher energy and logistics costs.

Fuel drives the increase

ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner noted that the rebound was largely due to rising fuel prices, which recorded their biggest increase in more than three years.

He also pointed to higher input costs for businesses and rising factory gate prices, amid more expensive crude oil and gasoline. This was compounded by increases in food prices and airfares.

Transport takes the biggest hit

The most visible impact was in the transport sector, where prices rose 4.7% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February—the highest rate since December 2022.

Within that category, motor fuel prices climbed 4.9% in March, reversing a 4.6% decline in February and marking the largest increase since January 2023.

Housing and household services prices rose 4.3%, up slightly from the previous month, driven in part by higher heating oil costs. Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 3.7%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points.

The only partial relief came from clothing and footwear, where prices fell 0.8%, compared with a 0.9% increase in February.

Core inflation shows slight easing

Core inflation—which excludes energy and fresh food—came in at 3.1%, down slightly from the previous reading. While this suggests some moderation, it remains elevated and above the official target.

The latest inflation data comes ahead of the Bank of England’s next policy meeting on April 30. The central bank faces a complex scenario: maintain high rates to contain inflation or begin easing policy to avoid a deeper economic slowdown.

Analysts at ING noted that it is still too early to assess how long the new inflationary wave driven by the energy shock will last. In their view, as long as inflation does not clearly exceed 4%, the Bank of England may opt to keep rates unchanged this year.

Five Signals from Kevin Warsh—and What They Could Mean for Rates

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Kevin Warsh, nominee of Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, avoided committing to an immediate rate cut, pledged internal reforms, and suggested revisiting how inflation is measured—as well as assessing the impact of artificial intelligence on employment.

Donald Trump is trying to remove Lisa Cook from the central bank.

Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee in a hearing marked by political tension and key economic signals. Over more than two hours, he stopped short of endorsing Trump’s push for urgent rate cuts, but outlined how he might steer the world’s most influential central bank if confirmed.

1. No promises on rate cuts

One of the main focal points was the relationship between the Fed and the White House. Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates, arguing that borrowing costs remain too high. Warsh stressed that the president never asked him to pre-commit to monetary decisions.

“The president has never asked me to predetermine or fix any interest rate—and I would not agree to do so,” he said, signaling institutional independence—one of the most sensitive issues for financial markets.

2. Political pressure stays in the background

Pressed by Senator Elizabeth Warren to acknowledge the outcome of the 2020 election, Warsh avoided a direct answer, noting instead that Congress had certified the result. He reiterated that politics should remain separate from monetary policy, and vice versa.

3. Internal reforms at the Fed

Warsh hinted at a reform agenda within the Federal Reserve. Among potential changes, he raised the possibility of revisiting the number of monetary policy meetings, currently set at eight per year. While the law requires at least four, he suggested that number alone would be insufficient.

He also questioned whether to continue holding press conferences after every meeting—a practice introduced under current Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2018. “Seeking truth is more important than repetition,” he said, referring to the frequency of official communication.

4. Rethinking inflation metrics

Warsh emphasized improving how core inflation is measured. He proposed a “data project” involving both public and private sectors to better capture underlying price trends, potentially using methodologies such as trimmed-mean indicators that exclude extreme price swings.

5. AI, productivity, and uncertainty

Another key theme was the economic impact of artificial intelligence. While some in Trump’s circle argue that AI-driven productivity gains could help lower inflation and support rate cuts, Warsh struck a more cautious tone.

“I’m more confident about improvements in output than about when those effects will reach the labor market,” he said—suggesting that employment trends will remain central in future rate decisions.

What this means for rates

Markets closely followed the hearing, as Warsh’s potential appointment could shift the Fed’s policy stance. The key takeaway for investors: he did not promise immediate rate cuts, but signaled openness to a different Fed—one that could rethink communication, internal operations, and inflation analysis.

In practice, this points to a more data-dependent approach. Rate cuts are possible, but not guaranteed—and likely contingent on clearer evidence of sustained disinflation and labor market trends.

Wall Street Erased Early Gains and Closed Lower

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Contradictory signals surrounding the ceasefire between the United States and Iran weighed on financial markets, as investors also looked ahead to a key week of corporate earnings releases.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

Stocks on Wall Street erased early gains and closed lower on Tuesday, April 21, as a crucial confirmation hearing took place in the U.S. Congress for Kevin Warsh, the nominee to lead the Federal Reserve. Investors also continued to grapple with uncertainty surrounding potential peace talks in the Middle East.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite each fell by 0.6%.

[[SPX-graph]]

Uncertain U.S.–Iran talks

The ceasefire is set to expire at an unspecified date later this week, though it remains unclear whether both sides will agree to extend it. At the same time, mixed signals from Washington and Tehran have fueled doubts about the status of negotiations.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump told CNBC that Iran “had no choice but to send representatives to the talks” and that he believed a “great deal” would be reached. He added that he did not want to extend the two-week ceasefire once it expires and warned that the U.S. was “ready to bomb Iran” if no agreement is achieved.

The president also said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports had been a “complete success” and claimed Washington had “fully cooperated” with Iran. Oil prices fluctuated during the session, remaining above pre-war levels, while the head of the International Energy Agency warned that the conflict is driving what could become the worst energy crisis in history.

Warsh in focus

Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appeared before the U.S. Senate for his confirmation hearing. His remarks offered insight into his views on central bank independence—a topic that has gained prominence following public tensions between Trump and current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Warsh stated that, if confirmed, he would ensure the Fed’s actions remain “strictly independent.” He later added that the central bank is still dealing with the consequences of policy mistakes made in 2021 and 2022, and argued that fundamental reforms and a significant shift in monetary management are needed.

Markets remain cautious

As traders scrambled to keep pace with rapidly evolving developments around the Iran conflict, they also prepared for a wave of key corporate earnings this week.

Among notable movers, UnitedHealth Group rose 7%, leading gains in both the S&P 500 and the Dow. The managed care company delivered what Mizuho described as “possibly” its best quarterly report in years.

3M fell 2% despite beating quarterly earnings estimates and improving its adjusted operating performance. Meanwhile, Apple declined 2.5% after drawing attention with news that Tim Cook would transition to executive chairman, with John Ternus set to become the next CEO.

[[AAPL/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin Falls Below $76,000 Amid Uncertainty Over United States–Iran Negotiations

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market closed Tuesday in negative territory, despite expectations that Iran and the United States could reach a peace agreement.

Bitcoin holds steady thanks to strong ETF inflows.

Bitcoin slipped 0.5%, breaking below the $76,000 level, while Ethereum also edged lower, holding near $2,300.

The broader altcoin market followed the downward trend. XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano posted losses similar to Bitcoin’s. Hyperliquid led declines with a drop of around 4%, while Monero stood out on the upside, gaining roughly 8%.

In the investment products segment, spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their streak to five consecutive days of net inflows. On Monday alone, they attracted $238.4 million, bringing the total for the run to nearly $1.5 billion. ETFs tied to Ethereum and Solana also continued to see positive flows.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Ceasefire extension in focus

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he would extend the ceasefire with Iran until “they present a unified proposal” for an agreement. He did not provide a specific timeline, though he confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked.

Over the weekend, a potential trip by Vice President J. D. Vance to Islamabad was considered to resume negotiations with Iran. Authorities in Tehran neither confirmed nor denied a return to Pakistan’s capital. However, despite Trump’s announcement, the trip now appears to be canceled, according to a Washington official.

Despite the uncertain backdrop, Trump emphasized the “strong position” of the United States. “We’re going to make a great deal. I think they have no choice,” he said.

Earlier in the day, however, Trump appeared to contradict himself when asked whether he would extend the ceasefire. “I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time,” he said.

Meanwhile, Iranian commander Ali Abdollahi, head of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, warned that Iran is prepared to respond forcefully to any violation of the truce, according to Tasnim news agency.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also accused the White House of sending “unconstructive and contradictory signals.” Trump’s remarks—including his warning that the U.S. would not hesitate to strike Iran again if talks fail—were seen as part of that mixed messaging.

From a technical perspective, data from Bloomberg show that funding rates for perpetual futures have remained in negative territory for 46 consecutive days—the longest streak since the collapse of FTX in late 2022—highlighting a broadly bearish positioning in the derivatives market.

Performance by asset class

Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate

Oil back above $100

Mixed economic data

Earnings provide some support

Strategic moves and one-off effects

Details of the buyback

Why Buffett cut Amazon

Mixed results, but above expectations

Automotive weakness weighs

Other segments and long-term strategy

Market reaction

Middle East ceasefire boosts sentiment

Oil surge revives inflation concerns

Strong retail sales in the U.S.

Mixed corporate earnings

Markets between geopolitics and fundamentals

Fuel drives the increase

Transport takes the biggest hit

Core inflation shows slight easing

1. No promises on rate cuts

2. Political pressure stays in the background

3. Internal reforms at the Fed

4. Rethinking inflation metrics

5. AI, productivity, and uncertainty

What this means for rates

Uncertain U.S.–Iran talks

Warsh in focus

Markets remain cautious

Ceasefire extension in focus