Gold and Silver Plunge Nearly 30% as the Dollar Strengthens

Posted on January 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar following the designation of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve triggered a sharp correction in metals and weighed on oil prices and other key assets.

Silver’s Momentum Reset Sets the Stage for the Next Leg Higher

Gold and silver prices plunged by as much as nearly 30% on Friday, in a session marked by a stronger dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell.

Spot gold fell 8.8% to $4,893.14 per ounce, while silver collapsed almost 28% to $83.96.

The sell-off—described by analysts as a broad profit-taking move—also pressured other precious metals. The drivers behind the sharp decline appear to be a combination of factors, ranging from the announcement of the incoming Fed chair to broader macroeconomic flows.

Whether we look at the dollar or real yield expectations, the combination of these factors helped trigger profit-taking. Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as his candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair in May, placing a frequent critic of the central bank in one of the most influential economic roles.

Gold had reached a record high of $5,594.82 per ounce on Thursday and remains on track to post a nearly 16% gain for the month, marking its sixth consecutive monthly advance.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Stronger Dollar After Warsh Confirmation

Warsh’s nomination fueled a rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which recovered part of the losses accumulated earlier in the week and rebounded from its lowest levels in nearly four years.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.7% to 96.835. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.6%, the British pound slipped 0.5%, and the dollar gained 1% against the Japanese yen.

[[USD/JPY-graph]]

A stronger dollar makes gold and other dollar-denominated assets more expensive for international buyers, further amplifying the correction in precious metals.

Oil Prices Fall on Signs of Easing Tensions With Iran

Oil prices also declined on Friday amid indications that the United States may pursue talks with Iran over its nuclear program, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions from a U.S. military strike. Still, crude prices were heading toward strong monthly gains due to elevated geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude futures fell $1.10 to $69.61 per barrel, after rising 3.4% and closing Thursday at their highest level since July 31. The March contract expires on Friday. The more actively traded April contract slipped $1.29 to $68.30.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.25 to $64.17 per barrel, after also gaining 3.4% in the previous session.

Who Is Kevin Warsh, the Pick to Lead the Federal Reserve

Posted on January 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The former Federal Reserve governor will replace Jerome Powell in May, amid strong pressure from the White House to curb the independence of the U.S. central bank.

Stocks are down today as Warsh is nominated for Fed Governor.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday selected economist and former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to lead the central bank when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.

“I’ve known Kevin for a long time and I have no doubt that he will go down in history as one of the GREAT Federal Reserve chairs—perhaps the best. Beyond everything else, he’s a central figure and he will never let you down,” Trump said on Friday morning.

During his first term, Trump had passed over Warsh in favor of Powell, a decision he later publicly regretted when the Fed chair refused to cut interest rates as quickly and aggressively as the president demanded.

This time around, Trump made explicit support for lower interest rates one of his key criteria for choosing the next head of the U.S. central bank.

Warsh’s background and his shift on high rates

Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011 and has deep Wall Street experience, including a role as a partner at the firm managing the fortune of legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller. He also has family ties to Ron Lauder, a prominent Trump supporter.

During his tenure at the Fed, Warsh was the primary liaison between then-Chair Ben Bernanke and Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis, and a leading advocate of a more restrictive monetary policy stance.

In recent months, however, he has shifted his position and publicly aligned himself with Trump’s criticism of the Fed. In particular, he has argued that the central bank has underestimated the disinflationary potential of productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence.

Markets expect moderation: tensions with Trump ahead?

Warsh has called for a “regime change” in monetary policy. Among his proposals is a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet—an idea that clashes with Trump’s preference for looser monetary conditions, at a time when the president has been pushing for greater control over the central bank.

Markets view Warsh as supportive of interest rate cuts, but far less inclined toward the aggressive easing associated with other potential candidates Trump had considered, such as Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder.

Just a day before the nomination was made official, Trump publicly insulted Powell, calling him an “idiot” and demanding a “substantial” reduction in interest rates, arguing that the United States should have “the lowest rates in the world.”

Gold Plunges, the Dollar Strengthens, and Oil Slides After the Fed Pivots

Posted on January 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve triggered a sharp correction in gold and put downward pressure on oil prices and other key assets.

Gold prices plunged more than 7%, breaking below the $5,000-per-ounce threshold, in a session dominated by dollar strength after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell.

Spot gold fell 7.5% to $4,992.05 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery dropped 6.4% to $4,985. The selloff came just one day after the precious metal hit a record high of $5,594.82 per ounce.

Despite the sharp daily pullback, gold remains on track to close January with gains of more than 15%, which would mark its best monthly performance since 1999 and its sixth consecutive monthly advance.

Stronger dollar after Warsh confirmation

Warsh’s appointment at the helm of the Fed sparked a rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which recovered part of its weekly losses and moved away from four-year lows.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.37% to 96.48 points. At the same time, the euro fell 0.3%, sterling slipped 0.4%, and the dollar gained 0.5% against the Japanese yen.

A stronger dollar makes gold and other dollar-denominated assets more expensive for international buyers, contributing to the deeper correction in precious metals.

Precious metals: broad-based profit taking

The decline in gold spread across the broader precious metals complex, which also posted steep losses amid heavy profit-taking after weeks of record-breaking gains.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Spot silver plunged 14.1% to $99.77 per ounce after reaching an all-time high of $121.64 on Thursday. Even so, silver is up nearly 42% for the month, on track for its strongest monthly performance on record.

Platinum slid 15.7% to $2,216.55 per ounce after touching a record $2,918.80 earlier in the week, while palladium dropped 13.4% to $1,737.50.

Oil retreats amid signs of easing tensions with Iran

Oil prices also moved lower, falling close to 1%, after Trump signaled openness to renewed dialogue with Iran over its nuclear program, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Brent crude slipped to $70.03 per barrel, while the most active contract fell to $68.79. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $64.70 per barrel.

The U.S. Lifted Some Sanctions on Venezuela to Facilitate Oil Sales

Posted on January 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The move was announced by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC and will allow U.S. companies to buy, sell, transport, store, and refine Venezuelan crude oil.

The energy sector is closing in on Venezuela with Maduro out.

The U.S. government has lifted some sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s oil industry in an effort to facilitate the sale, purchase, and transportation of its crude by American companies. While additional easing measures are expected, restrictions related to oil production remain in place.

The OFAC authorization allows U.S. firms to buy, sell, transport, store, and refine Venezuelan crude, but it does not lift existing U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil production itself.

A White House official told Reuters that the measure would “help existing Venezuelan oil flow to market” and added that further announcements on sanctions relief would follow. President Donald Trump said the United States intends to maintain indefinite oversight of Venezuela’s oil sales and revenues following the removal of former President Nicolás Maduro.

U.S. eases Venezuela sanctions to support oil sales

The Republican leader said he wants U.S. oil companies to invest up to $100 billion to restore production in the OPEC member country to its historical peak levels, after years of underinvestment and mismanagement.

Meanwhile, Washington and Caracas have already reached a preliminary agreement to sell 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. European trading houses Vitol and Trafigura will handle the commercialization of the supply. The new Treasury authorization—known as a general license—opens Venezuelan oil trade to additional companies, provided they are based in the United States.

The measure permits transactions involving the Venezuelan government and state-owned oil company PDVSA related to the “loading, export, re-export, sale, resale, supply, storage, marketing, purchase, delivery, or transportation of Venezuelan-origin oil, including the refining of such oil, by a U.S.-based entity.”

The license explicitly excludes companies and individuals from rival countries such as China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Russia. It also does not authorize payment arrangements that are not commercially reasonable, that involve debt swaps or payments in gold, or that are denominated in digital currencies.

Wall Street Posts Broad Losses as the Risk of a New U.S. Shutdown

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Political noise surrounding the renewed delay in approving the U.S. budget is raising the risk of another government shutdown.

Wall Street Wobbles as Overvaluation Worries and Macro Uncertainty Hit Sentiment

This comes on top of fresh attacks by Donald Trump against the Fed chair and renewed threats of military action against Iran. On the corporate front, Microsoft’s earnings triggered a shake-up across the technology sector.

Major Wall Street indexes closed mostly lower on Thursday, as investor sentiment was weighed down in large part by a sell-off in Microsoft shares following the release of its quarterly results, which rippled through software and tech services stocks. At the same time, Trump renewed his calls for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the specter of another U.S. government shutdown resurfaced. Markets were also unsettled by the latest White House statements regarding Iran.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 49,071.56 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 6,963.76; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7% to 23,685.12.

[[SPX-graph]]

The Federal Reserve holds rates steady

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts. In its policy statement, the Fed pointed to still-elevated inflation, solid economic growth, and a stabilizing labor market, offering little guidance on the timing of future cuts.

Overall, the Fed struck a more optimistic tone on the economy. Subtle changes in the FOMC statement slightly improved the Committee’s assessment of labor market conditions and signaled somewhat reduced concern about inflationary pressures.

Although the Fed did not update its dot plot at this meeting, analysts noted a growing alignment between the central bank and financial markets—reflected in federal funds futures—regarding the likelihood of one to two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end.

“With this alignment between the Fed and financial markets, the risk that monetary policy negatively impacts equity markets heading into the second half of the year is reduced,” one analyst said.

Another U.S. government shutdown?

Talks to avert another U.S. government shutdown intensified in Washington, D.C., over the past several hours, with a potential agreement appearing increasingly close.

Spurred by the death of 37-year-old Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, Democrats are pushing to strip funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) from a $1.2 trillion spending bill unless additional oversight measures are included.

If no deal is reached, a second government shutdown in just a few months would begin one minute after midnight on Friday, January 30.

Mexican Peso Weakens After Hitting Its Best Level of the Year

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso pulled back after earlier hitting its strongest level of the year, as traders positioned themselves ahead of key data releases.

The Mexican peso weakened against the U.S. dollar in Thursday’s session. The local currency retreated after touching its best level so far this year earlier in the day, as market participants brace for the release of Mexico’s GDP data scheduled for Friday.

The exchange rate closed at 17.2333 pesos per dollar. Compared with Wednesday’s close of 17.2178, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the move represented a loss of 1.55 centavos, or 0.09%.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

During the session, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 17.3463 pesos and a low of 17.1117, a level not seen since June 2024. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.19% to 96.17.

Targeting the 17.00 level

The peso extended its gains against the dollar during overnight trading but later faced resistance near the 17.20 level. Despite the pullback, analysts continue to see room for further appreciation amid ongoing weakness in the U.S. currency.

“We expect the recovery bias to remain in place. A break below the resistance at 17.10 would reinforce the peso’s appreciation. In that case, the next key technical level would be 17.00,” analysts said.

Focus on GDP and USMCA

After several days in which attention centered on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, local FX traders are now turning to the preliminary release of Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP). A rebound is expected in the final quarter of 2025.

Markets are also preparing for renewed discussions over the review of the USMCA trade agreement, after Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer agreed on Wednesday to push forward structural reforms to the pact.

Overall, the peso’s strength against the dollar is expected to persist. China’s willingness to deepen trade ties with U.S. neighbors is seen as a key factor in upcoming USMCA negotiations.

On the data front, the number of Americans filing initial jobless claims fell modestly last week, signaling continued labor market resilience. Claims declined by 1,000 to 209,000.

Donald Trump Calls Jerome Powell an “Imbecile”

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. president renewed his attacks on the Fed chair after the central bank announced it would leave monetary policy unchanged.

Trump appointed Powell in the first place.

Trump argued that, thanks to tariff revenues, the United States should have “substantially lower” interest rates.

U.S. President Donald Trump lashed out again on Thursday at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump demanded a “substantial” rate cut and said the United States should have “the lowest interest rates in the world.”

In a lengthy post, Trump—who referred to Powell as “Too Late”—accused him of “hurting the country and its national security” by maintaining current benchmark rates. The criticism came just 24 hours after the Fed reaffirmed its monetary policy stance without changes.

The White House occupant said there was “absolutely no reason” to keep rates at their current level, especially because “even this imbecile admits that inflation is no longer a problem or a threat.” According to Trump, high interest rates are costing the U.S. economy “hundreds of billions of dollars a year” in interest expenses, which he described as “completely unnecessary and unjustified.”

The link between tariffs and interest rates

Trump tied his demand for lower rates to his tariff strategy, arguing that “because of the vast amounts of money flowing into the country from tariffs,” the United States should lead the world with the most competitive interest rates.

He described other countries as “cash machines paying low interest rates” that appear “sleek, solid, and first-class only because the United States allows it.” Trump claimed he had been “very kind, gracious, and gentle” with other nations on trade, but warned that “with the stroke of a pen,” trillions of additional dollars could flow into U.S. coffers.

To conclude, Trump said that “tariffs have once again made the United States strong and powerful” and reiterated his demand that the Federal Reserve “substantially cut interest rates — NOW!”

Oil Jumps 4% After Donald Trump Warns Iran; Gold Continues Rally

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Rising tensions between the United States and Iran are once again rattling global markets. Gold set a fresh all-time high, driven by strong safe-haven demand and a weaker U.S. dollar.

Gold prices surged again on Thursday, reaching a new record near $5,600 per ounce, while oil prices also advanced after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a potential military strike against Iran.

Supported by dollar weakness, renewed interest in precious metals—traditionally viewed as safe-haven assets during periods of market uncertainty—also pushed silver briefly to a session high.

At one point during the session, gold jumped more than $300, climbing above $5,595 per ounce after Trump stated that Tehran must negotiate an agreement over its nuclear program, which Western powers believe is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

“Let’s hope Iran quickly comes to the table and negotiates a fair and equitable deal — NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS — that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly essential!” the Republican leader wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“The next attack will be much worse! Don’t let that happen again,” he added, referring to U.S. airstrikes carried out in June against several Iranian nuclear facilities. A U.S. naval strike group that Trump described as an “armada,” led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, is currently operating in Middle Eastern waters.

The U.S. president said he was “ready, willing, and able to carry out the mission quickly, with speed and force, if necessary.”

CNN reported that the administration is considering a strike following the breakdown of nuclear negotiations.

Safe havens and oil rally

On another front, escalating geopolitical tensions also pushed oil prices up nearly 4%. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to its highest level in four months, while North Sea Brent rose to levels not seen since July, amid growing supply concerns.

[[USOIL-graph]]

In Asian trading, equity markets advanced in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, and Seoul, while Tokyo finished flat.

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure as well, even after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that “the United States has always maintained a strong-dollar policy,” a day after Trump appeared to welcome the currency’s recent weakness.

Gold Soars to Fresh Records as Bitcoin Lags at $89,000

Posted on January 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The leading cryptocurrency continues to slide, while gold soars to historic levels.

Bitcoin swung down fast after a quick climb to $90K.

The cryptocurrency market is trading with modest gains on Wednesday. Bitcoin (BTC) reversed earlier advances and is down 1.3% at $88,920, while Ethereum (ETH) is also lower, slipping 0.5% to $3,008.45.

Altcoins are following the same trend, led by Solana (SOL), which is down 4.4%, followed by XRP, off 3.1%, and Cardano, down 3.7%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin weakens as gold keeps climbing

Amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, gold has reached fresh all-time highs and continues to strengthen as a safe-haven asset amid a weakening U.S. dollar—a dynamic that has weighed on Bitcoin.

Against this backdrop, market research firm Yardeni Research published a comparative analysis of gold and the leading cryptocurrency, noting that Bitcoin exists solely in digital form and may be vulnerable to future technological threats, whereas gold must be physically stored.

After gold surpassed $3,000 in early 2025, the firm began projecting a move toward $10,000 by the end of the decade. “That would represent a fivefold increase from its breakout to new highs in 2024,” Yardeni said.

When U.S. President Donald Trump remarked that “the dollar is doing a great job,” Yardeni interpreted the comment as a tacit endorsement of a weaker currency. As a result, the firm concluded: “A weaker dollar could put upward pressure on U.S. inflation, which would also support higher gold prices.”

Traditional markets

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday, January 28, giving up earlier gains that briefly pushed the benchmark S&P 500 above the historic 7,000-point level for the first time. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq finished the session at a fresh record high. Investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision—which confirmed interest rates would remain unchanged—and key earnings reports from major technology companies.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.02% to 49,015.54 points; the S&P 500 slipped 0.01% to 6,978.04; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 23,857.45.

[[SPX-graph]]

Cryptocurrencies Enabled $82 Billion in Money Laundering in 2025

Posted on January 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Blockchains publicly record the addresses involved in every cryptoasset transaction, but identifying the real individuals behind those operations remains highly complex.

Bitcoin enabled millions of dollar of money laundering.

A private report revealed that money laundering through cryptocurrencies reached at least $82 billion in 2025, a figure that marks a sharp increase from the roughly $10 billion estimated in 2020.

This surge has turned illicit crypto transactions into a growing concern for global financial authorities and regulators.

According to a recent report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, the increase is not only quantitative but also qualitative. While blockchains provide public records of transaction addresses, linking those addresses to real-world identities is difficult, significantly complicating oversight and enforcement efforts.

Despite the technical traceability offered by blockchain technology, the sophisticated methods employed by criminal networks continue to hinder the identification of illicit actors.

Chinese-language blockchain networks dominate the phenomenon

One of the report’s most striking findings is the explosive growth of so-called “Chinese-language money laundering networks” (CMLN).

These organizations, which began to consolidate during the pandemic, processed approximately $16.1 billion in 2025 through nearly 1,800 active wallets—equivalent to about $44 million per day in illicit funds. Altogether, these networks accounted for roughly 20% of all identified crypto money laundering volume that year.

The expansion of these networks has been extraordinary. According to some analyses, flows into CMLNs grew thousands of times faster than other laundering channels traditionally associated with centralized exchanges or decentralized finance (DeFi).

Techniques and regulatory evasion

These networks rely on a variety of techniques to evade detection. Among the most prominent are so-called “guarantee platforms,” which operate as escrow-like services, allowing money launderers to offer or locate laundering services with greater ease and a certain degree of anonymity.

Through these systems, criminals can fragment, move, and convert illicit funds across multiple stages, making it far more difficult for authorities to trace transactions.

Although countries such as China have banned cryptocurrency trading and prosecuted thousands of individuals linked to crypto money laundering, these networks continue to persist and evolve, adapting to regulatory pressure and migrating to alternative channels when confronted with enforcement actions.

The global nature of cryptocurrencies, combined with the lack of a uniform international regulatory framework, continues to complicate supervision and control efforts.