Goldman Sachs Forecasts “Extreme” Rebound in U.S. Stocks

Posted on March 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to Goldman Sachs, the current positioning of investors on S&P 500–linked markets could trigger an “extreme” upward move in U.S. equities if positive news emerges on the macroeconomic or geopolitical front.

John Flood, one of the bank’s leading trading specialists, warned that markets are currently navigating a period of heightened uncertainty driven by factors such as tensions in the Middle East, credit concerns, and questions about the economic impact of artificial intelligence.

Against this backdrop, many hedge funds have adopted defensive strategies that could end up amplifying market movements.

Why Goldman Sachs sees upside risk for equities

According to data from the bank’s prime brokerage team, hedge funds remain bullish on individual stocks but have simultaneously increased bearish hedges by shorting macro instruments such as exchange-traded funds and stock index futures.

Short positioning in these broad market instruments has reached its highest level since September 2022.

This positioning reflects investor caution amid global uncertainty. However, it also creates a potentially explosive scenario: if a favorable headline appears—such as geopolitical de-escalation—many traders could be forced to quickly close their short positions, triggering a sharp rally in stock indexes.

Flood noted that a positive development, such as signs of a resolution to the conflict with Iran, could drive an immediate 2% to 3% jump in equity indexes, largely fueled by short covering in macro products.

Goldman Sachs also highlighted that total hedge fund exposure—a metric combining long and short positions—is close to record levels at around 307%, suggesting that markets are highly leveraged and sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment.

A market with limited liquidity

Another factor that could magnify market swings is declining liquidity.

While daily trading volumes exceed 20 billion shares, overall market depth has fallen significantly. In S&P 500 futures, the volume available at the best bid-ask levels is currently around $4 million, well below the historical average of roughly $14 million.

According to Flood, the combination of high leverage and thinner liquidity means that even a single institutional trade can cause sharper price fluctuations.

For now, many traditional asset managers remain cautious and prefer to wait for greater clarity on the macroeconomic outlook. Still, the strategist noted that markets are hoping for signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the coming weeks.

Two Major U.S. Oil Companies Near Deal with Venezuela

Posted on March 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Chevron and Shell move closer to securing rights to develop oil- and gas-rich areas as they seek to expand production. The potential deals come amid growing pressure on the global hydrocarbons market.

Chevron and Shell are close to signing the first major oil production agreements with Venezuela since the United States captured former leader Nicolás Maduro on January 3. The partnerships would allow the oil majors to explore highly sought-after areas within the country, at a time when tensions in the Middle East are disrupting global energy trade.

The talks follow a sweeping reform of Venezuela’s main hydrocarbons law, approved by the National Assembly in late January. The legislation grants foreign companies greater autonomy to operate, export, and sell Venezuelan crude—even if they hold minority stakes in the state-owned oil company PDVSA.

In February, Venezuela launched a review of all oil and gas projects in the country. Officials from the Ministry of Petroleum warned energy executives that contracts could be revoked for projects that remain inactive or fail to meet investment commitments.

Chevron and Shell move toward an agreement

Chevron and Venezuelan energy authorities have agreed on terms to expand the company’s largest project in the country, Petropiar, located in the Orinoco Belt. The deal would also grant production rights over the Ayacucho 8 block, south of the existing project area. If finalized, it would become Chevron’s fifth oil block in Venezuela and could make the company the largest private producer in the Orinoco region, which holds more than three-quarters of the country’s crude reserves.

Last month, Chevron and PDVSA produced roughly 90,000 barrels per day of upgraded Hamaca crude and 20,000 barrels per day of vacuum gas oil at the Petropiar facility.

Meanwhile, Shell is also advancing preliminary oil and gas agreements during the visit of U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to Caracas. According to Reuters, the company is seeking to develop the Carito and Pirital fields in the northern Monagas region, a prized area in eastern Venezuela.

These fields can produce light and medium crude as well as natural gas—both valuable resources that are relatively scarce in Venezuela’s heavily weighted portfolio of extra-heavy oil.

The Punta de Mata area, which includes Pirital, Carito, and the nearby El Furrial field, produced around 94,000 barrels per day of crude and about 1.03 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day last month, according to independent estimates. Of that volume, roughly 350 million cubic feet per day was flared.

Calm Returns to Global Markets as Oil Plunges

Posted on March 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. stocks closed with slight moves on Tuesday while oil prices dropped sharply, following the extreme volatility seen since the start of the conflict involving Iran.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, a day after reversing early losses to finish with solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite was virtually unchanged, rising just 0.01%.

[[SPX-graph]]

Calm also returned to the oil market, which had been the main source of tension for financial markets due to fears of long-term supply disruptions linked to the conflict.

The international benchmark Brent Crude closed at $91.42 per barrel, 7.6% lower than its previous close, though much of that decline occurred before the end of Monday’s session. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, traded around $88.57 per barrel.

Oil prices had plunged on Monday after reaching nearly $120 per barrel, their highest level since 2022, following comments from Donald Trump, who told CBS News that he believed “the war is very complete, practically.” The remarks fueled hopes that the conflict could end sooner than expected, allowing oil flows from the Middle East to normalize.

However, later comments from Trump were less clear about when the war might end. Meanwhile, Ali Mohammad Naini, a spokesperson for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said that Iran would determine when the war concludes. Iran launched new attacks on Tuesday against Israel and several Gulf Arab countries, keeping pressure on the region in a conflict initiated by Israel and the United States.

[[USOIL-graph]]

This uncertainty has left Wall Street waiting for clearer signals about the war’s duration. One point Trump emphasized was his determination to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The conflict has caused disruptions in the strait off Iran’s coast, a passage through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows—one of the key drivers behind recent oil price swings.

In the bond market, the yield on the U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Note eased slightly to 4.11%, from 4.12% late Monday.

In Asia, investors also digested a series of positive macroeconomic indicators. China reported a record trade surplus of $213.62 billion for the combined period of January and February, far exceeding the $179.6 billion expected by the market.

Mexican Peso Gains Against Dollar on Expectations About Iran War Duration

Posted on March 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso gained ground against the United States dollar on Tuesday, supported by improved market sentiment and extending the previous session’s rebound after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran.

The exchange rate closed the session at 17.5903 pesos per dollar. Compared with Monday’s close of 17.6711, according to official data from the Banco de México, the move represented an appreciation of 8.08 centavos, or 0.46%, for the Mexican currency.

During the session, the dollar traded within a range between 17.6993 and 17.4511 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.21% to 98.94 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Higher risk appetite

Trump said on Monday that the war had already inflicted severe damage on Iran and predicted that the conflict could end earlier than the four weeks initially expected. Until now, the hostilities had been pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns about the global economy.

Analysts noted that the de-escalation narrative promoted by Trump, along with the Group of Seven willingness to release oil reserves, triggered a sharp drop in crude prices and contributed to a broader weakening of the dollar.

However, the rhetoric contrasts with developments on the ground in Iran, which experienced its most intense day of bombings since the war began more than a week ago. Iranian authorities have threatened to block oil shipments from the Middle East until U.S. attacks cease.

Oil remains the main source of tension for global markets, particularly due to risks to supply and to shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global crude trade.

Key data ahead

For Wednesday, investors will continue to monitor headlines about the conflict, but economic data will also take center stage with the release of the U.S. inflation report, a key indicator for the future path of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.

China Bets on AI to Create Jobs and “Rejuvenate” its Economy

Posted on March 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

China is pushing the large-scale adoption of Artificial Intelligence as a central pillar of its economic agenda for the next five years, hoping the technology will offset the aging of its workforce and reverse the country’s long-term slowdown. The initiative comes as Beijing sets its lowest growth target since 1991.

The strategy was unveiled at the opening session of the National People’s Congress, where the government outlined plans to harness what it described as AI’s “job-creation effect.”

China’s Minister of Human Resources, Wang Xiaoping, said the country is working to “actively leverage” AI to create new jobs and expand employment opportunities for the 12.7 million university graduates expected to enter the labor market this year.

Rising youth unemployment

However, the government’s optimism contrasts with warnings from international institutions and academic research. The International Monetary Fund estimates that AI could affect about 40% of jobs worldwide, a figure that rises to 60% in advanced economies.

Similarly, researchers from Stanford University have identified a “significant and disproportionate” impact on workers just entering the U.S. labor market — a concern that recently echoed across Wall Street.

These concerns are particularly relevant given China’s challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The country has set a GDP growth target between 4.5% and 5%, the lowest since 1991, while youth unemployment remains elevated. At the same time, roughly 300 million people are expected to retire over the next decade, putting additional pressure on the pension system.

Industrial transformation and university reform

During the parliamentary sessions, executives from state-owned enterprises — historically associated with job stability — acknowledged that AI will drive significant internal restructuring.

Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, expressed optimism, predicting that technological expansion will transform the automotive industry into a “booming sector,” reversing its current decline.

In education, Chinese universities are already adapting their curricula. ShanghaiTech University has launched AI-focused “micro-specializations” aimed at developing skills that are harder to automate, including interdisciplinary learning, critical thinking, and creativity.

“We must train them to ask questions. If your thinking is not sharp, you won’t beat the robots,” said the university’s president, Yin Jie.

Paraguay to Launch State-Run Bitcoin Mining Using Seized Equipment

Posted on March 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

State-owned utility Administración Nacional de Electricidad (ANDE) has signed an agreement with Morphware to put 30,000 confiscated mining machines into operation. The initiative aims to monetize excess electricity from the Itaipu Dam and turn electricity theft into public revenue.

Mining activity from state-run companies is on the rise.

In an unprecedented move for public administration in South America, Paraguay is moving toward becoming the first country in the region to operate a state-managed mining infrastructure for Bitcoin. The initiative, led by ANDE, involves repurposing thousands of mining devices seized during crackdowns on illegal crypto mining farms.

Through a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Morphware, the Paraguayan government plans to give productive use to roughly 30,000 processing units that had been sitting idle in government warehouses after being confiscated for operating illegally or through electricity theft.

Itaipú’s energy surplus as an economic driver

Paraguay’s strategy relies on its strongest competitive advantage: abundant and inexpensive hydroelectric energy generated by the Itaipú Dam. Historically, the country has exported much of its excess electricity at relatively low prices. Now, ANDE plans to redirect that underutilized power toward digital asset mining in order to capture more value domestically.

The pilot program includes several stages:

Initial phase: Installation of 1,500 units at ANDE-controlled sites located near electrical substations.
Infrastructure upgrades: Adaptation of facilities with ventilation systems, transformers, and high-precision metering equipment.
State oversight: ANDE will retain ownership and regulatory control of the facilities, while Morphware will provide technical guidance and staff training.

From illegal activity to state-run industry

Kenso Trabing, CEO of Morphware, described the agreement as a “transformational opportunity” for the country. By deploying the machines in regulated sites, Paraguay aims to convert a security problem—electricity theft by illegal miners—into a legitimate source of revenue.

“Unused electricity becomes income for Paraguay, serving both the Bitcoin network and the global AI economy,” the executive said.

If the pilot proves successful, it could pave the way for future expansions financed through financial products tied to Bitcoin production or artificial intelligence applications.

What happens to the mined assets?

Although no specific timeline has been announced for the start of operations, discussions within the Paraguayan government are focusing on how to manage the potential proceeds. Two main options are being considered:

Direct sale: Selling the mined bitcoins to finance public spending.
Strategic reserve: Holding part of the assets as a hedge against financial risks and to diversify national reserves.

China’s Inflation Reached 1.3% in February, its Highest Level in Three Years

Posted on March 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

China’s consumer inflation rose to 1.3% in February, the highest level in three years, according to official data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The figure marked a sharp increase from the 0.2% recorded in January, which had already slowed from 0.8% in December.

The reading also came in above the 0.9% forecast in a survey by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the Chinese government announced a 2026 growth target of between 4.5% and 5%, the lowest objective since 1991—except for 2020, when no growth target was set due to the economic shock caused by COVID-19.

Lunar New Year spending pushed prices higher

The rise in consumer prices was largely driven by increased spending during the Chinese New Year celebrations in early February. This year, the holiday period was extended to a record nine days, encouraging higher consumption.

As a result, Chinese consumers spent more on domestic travel, dining out, and other goods, contributing to the uptick in inflation.

February’s data was also influenced by rising energy prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted oil supplies and intensified the global energy crisis. In that context, the military conflict in the Middle East shows no clear signs of easing in the near term.

Trump-Xi Summit

The initial enthusiasm surrounding the summit between the United States and China quickly faded after frustration in Beijing over what it saw as a last-minute effort by Washington to prepare an event that typically requires months of planning. In that context, the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will aim to preserve stability in the relationship, though it does not guarantee the announcement of new trade agreements.

Ahead of the Republican president’s visit to China from March 31 to April 2, both countries are trying to overcome several obstacles and ease tensions. The United States has yet to assemble the delegation of chief executives that some officials had hoped for and has offered no clear signals about its tariff policy. Meanwhile, in Beijing there has been no progress on the investment protections Washington requested for U.S. companies, nor on resolving the dispute over restrictions on rare earth exports, a key point of friction between the two sides.

Wall Street Closes Higher and Oil Plunges Up to 23%

Posted on March 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Global markets began the week with strong signs of financial panic amid uncertainty sparked by the war in the Middle East and growing fears among investors that the conflict involving Iran could last longer than originally suggested by Donald Trump.

From Crisis Rally to Pullback: Oil Markets React to Global Tensions

Stock markets around the world turned sharply lower early in the session, although Wall Street managed to rebound toward the close while oil prices collapsed after extreme volatility.

Asian markets were the first to react. The situation raised particular concern in Japan — the world’s fourth-largest economy and the fifth-largest oil importer — which relies on the Middle East for nearly 95% of its crude supply.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged 5.2%, reflecting investor anxiety over the risk of an escalation and its potential impact on global energy supplies.

In response, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the country holds strategic oil reserves equivalent to about 254 days of domestic consumption. According to Kyodo News, the government is considering releasing part of those reserves to stabilize the market.

[[SPX-graph]]

Energy dependence also weighed on South Korea, the world’s fourth-largest oil importer. The KOSPI in Seoul closed down 6%.

The negative tone extended to China, which remains the world’s largest crude buyer. The Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively.

Other market signals

The cautious mood also spread to U.S. markets, although sentiment improved late in the session. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%.

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.5%. Losses were widespread: Germany’s DAX dropped 0.8% and France’s CAC 40 fell 1%. Outside the eurozone, the UK’s FTSE 100 declined 0.34%.

Commodities: oil briefly surged above $100

Energy markets experienced extreme swings. West Texas Intermediate crude initially surged as much as 25.17% before reversing sharply and plunging more than 20% to around $82.84 per barrel, after briefly reaching its highest level since June 2022 during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Similarly, Brent Crude jumped as much as 24.29% amid fears of disruptions to oil production and shipping routes. After reversing course, the North Sea benchmark settled at $87.38 per barrel, down 19.3% on the day.

The IMF Urged Governments to “Prepare for the Unthinkable”

Posted on March 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned about growing risks to the global economy following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and urged governments to prepare for extreme scenarios as international uncertainty rises.

Speaking at a conference in Tokyo, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the new global environment is once again testing the resilience of economies and requires policymakers to respond more decisively.

“My advice to policymakers around the world in this new global environment is to think of the unthinkable and prepare for it,” the Bulgarian economist said.

According to Georgieva, the IMF is currently gathering data to assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. The analysis will be presented in greater detail in the next edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), scheduled for release in mid-April.

Georgieva emphasized that the main transmission channel from the conflict to the global economy is the energy market. Historically, sharp increases in oil prices have had direct effects on both inflation and economic growth.

“As a rule of thumb, every 10% increase in oil prices — if sustained for most of the year — can add roughly 40 basis points to global inflation,” she explained.

At the same time, higher energy costs could reduce global GDP growth by between 0.1% and 0.2%, increasing the risk of a scenario combining slower economic activity with rising inflation.

Georgieva’s recommendations to governments

Against this backdrop, Georgieva urged governments to focus on the variables they can control. Among her recommendations were strengthening economic institutions, maintaining solid policy frameworks, and preserving fiscal and monetary policy space in order to respond effectively to external shocks.

She also stressed the importance of encouraging private sector–driven growth and reacting quickly to shifts in the international environment.

“We must be agile,” Georgieva said, warning that the global landscape has become more uncertain and volatile since the outbreak of the conflict in the region.

Bitcoin Reaches 20 Million Coins Issued, 95% of Total Supply

Posted on March 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

It marks one of the most important milestones in the history of Bitcoin: the network has reached the issuance of 20 million coins, just short of its maximum supply.

Out of the protocol’s hard cap of 21 million bitcoins, more than 95% are now already in circulation.

This means that only 1 million coins remain to be mined, a process that will unfold gradually over more than a century due to the reward-reduction mechanism known as Bitcoin Halving. As a result, the monetary system established when Bitcoin was created in 2009 continues to demonstrate its predictable supply schedule.

It is a unique phenomenon for the digital network, as our generation will likely not witness the issuance of the final million bitcoins.

Bitcoin navigates global headwinds

It has been six months since Bitcoin reached its all-time high in October. Since then, the cryptocurrency has fallen by nearly 40%, largely due to instability in the global economic environment, ranging from weak U.S. data to geopolitical conflicts such as the ongoing tensions involving Iran.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $69,061, approaching the key $70,000 level, which investors are watching closely as an important support threshold.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has shown resilience amid the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Since the start of the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, the asset has gained roughly 3.5%, trading near $68,000 and outperforming several traditional assets.

Over the same period, Gold has declined by about 5% and Silver has fallen 12%, while equity benchmarks such as the Nasdaq‑100 and the S&P 500 have posted modest losses—suggesting that Bitcoin has remained relatively stronger than many traditional markets.