Author: Ignacio Teson

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

Wall Street Ends in the Red After Trump Rejects Tariff Extension

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Investor caution prevailed on Tuesday, July 8, after U.S. President Donald Trump sent formal letters to several countries announcing a new wave of tariffs set to take effect next month, even as trade talks continue with the European Union.

Markets wavered throughout the session, and Wall Street closed with mixed results as investors struggled to assess the full economic impact of Trump’s aggressive new tariff agenda.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37% to 44,240.76
  • S&P 500 slipped 0.07% to 6,225.32
  • Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.03% to 20,418.46

[[SPX-graph]]

Trump Confirms No More Delays for August 1 Tariffs

Speaking to reporters, President Trump confirmed that his administration will not grant any further extensions to the reciprocal tariffs postponed to August 1, after the original July 9 deadline. The statement keeps alive the threat of a full-blown trade war if negotiations stall before the new cutoff date.

On Monday, the White House released letters outlining the new tariffs, including:

  • 25% on imports from South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan
  • 30% on South Africa
  • 32% on Indonesia
  • 35% on Bangladesh
  • 36% on Thailand

The new tariffs will not be stacked with earlier sectoral tariffs already in place on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, according to administration officials.

Combined with a preliminary trade agreement reached with Vietnam last week, the tariff package is expected to generate around $54 billion in annual revenue for the U.S. government. Still, the extension amounts to a 90-day pause—initially declared in April—and does not remove the threat of elevated tariffs being reimposed in the coming weeks.

Amazon Launches Extended Prime Day Amid Soft Market Reaction

In corporate news, Amazon (-1.7%) kicked off its Prime Day event, which will now run for four days, slightly longer than in previous years. Executives said the extension was in response to Prime members asking for more time to shop deals.

During last year’s Prime Day (July 2024), U.S. consumers spent $14.2 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, according to Adobe Analytics (+1.2%), which tracks digital spending.

U.S. to Debate Three Key Bills That Could Reshape the Crypto World

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Between July 14 and 18, the U.S. Congress will decide the fate of three pivotal pieces of legislation that could reshape the future of digital assets globally.

Dubbed “Crypto Week”, the U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a package of bills that aim to establish new regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrency operations. The proposals have received broad support from major players in the crypto industry.

However, critics warn that they could unintentionally weaken the U.S. dollar and disrupt international payment systems.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Among the most anticipated initiatives is the GENIUS Act, which has the backing of President Donald Trump, who has called for its approval before the congressional recess in August.

The House will also vote on the State Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, already passed by the lower chamber, which seeks to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a centrally controlled digital dollar—citing privacy concerns.

The third bill, the CLARITY Act, aims to create a comprehensive market structure by clarifying which digital assets are securities and which are commodities, while also establishing operational standards for exchanges. Notably, it would ban U.S. government employees from using blockchain platforms developed in China, citing national security risks.

The GENIUS Act: The Centerpiece of Crypto Week

The GENIUS Act focuses on regulating stablecoins—digital currencies pegged to real-world assets. Two of the largest issuers are Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC).

The bill, which passed the Senate last month, proposes stricter oversight for stablecoin issuers. It would require a 1:1 backing with physical reserves, robust capital requirements, and enhanced transparency, under federal supervision.

Supporters say the legislation is a clear signal that U.S. lawmakers are taking a practical approach to digital asset innovation. One industry executive called it “a foundational bridge for traditional finance to explore blockchain-based payments and settlements.”

If approved, the GENIUS Act would bar unregistered foreign issuers from offering stablecoins to U.S. residents. It would also grant the Federal Reserve the authority to restrict or block access to foreign stablecoins that pose risks to financial stability or consumer protection.

A Stablecoin Boom Ahead?

Analysts predict a surge in stablecoin development tailored to meet real-world financial needs—from cross-border remittances to on-chain settlements.

According to a recent report from Binance, the law could allow banks, fintech firms, and even large retailers to issue dollar-backed coins under a unified regulatory framework—something the market has long anticipated.

Estimates from the U.S. Treasury put the current stablecoin market at $250 billion, with projections rising to $3.7 trillion by 2030. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted last month that “this scenario becomes far more likely if the GENIUS Act is passed.”

Trump Confirms Tariffs Will Take Effect on August 1

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

In April, President Donald Trump imposed a blanket 10% tariff on imports from nearly all of the United States’ trading partners, along with higher custom duties targeting dozens of countries. Negotiations are ongoing.

On Tuesday, Trump made clear that he will not postpone the August 1 deadline for the new tariffs to take effect — a sharp reversal from the previous day, when he had hinted at a possible delay.

While the initial tariff package was announced in April, the higher duties were temporarily suspended until July 9. On Monday, Trump pushed that deadline back to August 1, suggesting some flexibility: “I’d say it’s firm — but not 100% firm,” he told reporters.

But by Tuesday, his stance had hardened: “There have been no changes to that date,” he stated. “There will be no extensions.”

The president also confirmed that letters were sent on Monday to key U.S. trading partners, mainly in Asia, informing them of the tariff increases set to take effect August 1. More letters, he added, would be sent “today, tomorrow, and in the coming days.”

Market Action

Despite rising trade tensions, U.S. financial markets opened higher on Tuesday. Wall Street futures showed modest gains, a potential rebound from Monday’s losses that came after Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea.

[[SPX-graph]]

He also unveiled a 40% tariff on goods from countries including Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and South Africa — a move that has raised fresh concerns about a possible escalation in protectionist policies.

Bill Ackman Bets 50% of His Portfolio on Just Three Stocks

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Renowned hedge fund manager Bill Ackman holds millions of shares in his portfolio — but more than half of it is concentrated in just three companies.

As the billionaire behind Pershing Square Capital Management, Ackman is a strong believer in concentrated investing. That philosophy is reflected in the structure of his $14.4 billion portfolio: 51% of it is invested in only three stocks.

1. Uber (19.7%)

In early 2025, Ackman acquired over 30 million shares of Uber, making it his largest single holding. Since then, the stock has surged nearly 55%, boosted by both his high-profile investment and the company’s solid financial performance.

Uber boasts a monthly active user base exceeding 170 million and continues to gain market share, reinforcing its competitive edge. Long-term, the company may benefit from the rollout of autonomous vehicles, thanks to its expansive transportation platform.

Financially, gross bookings rose 14% last quarter, EBITDA grew 35%, and free cash flow jumped 66%. Despite the recent rally, analysts say Uber’s valuation remains attractive relative to its growth prospects.

2. Brookfield (18.4%)

Ackman also strengthened his position in Brookfield, a Canadian alternative asset manager operating across real estate, infrastructure, and renewable energy sectors.

Brookfield’s business model generates steady cash flow, which it reinvests into new opportunities and distributes to shareholders. Its insurance unit adds further investment capital through the use of “float,” a strategy Ackman admires from legendary investor Warren Buffett.

Over the past five years, Brookfield has grown its earnings per share at an average annual rate of 19%. With projected earnings of $6.33 per share by 2029, the stock looks undervalued at its current 19x price-to-earnings multiple.

3. Howard Hughes Holdings (13.3%)

In May, Ackman increased his stake in Howard Hughes Holdings, investing $900 million and bringing his economic interest to nearly 47%.

His goal: to transform the real estate company into a diversified holding firm modeled after Berkshire Hathaway. While Howard Hughes’ net assets are estimated at $5.8 billion, its market cap is just $4 billion — a valuation gap that presents potential upside for investors.

The company’s strong operating cash flow and control over major urban developments position it for future growth. And if administrative costs tied to Pershing Square are resolved, the valuation gap could narrow significantly.

Tariffs: Despite Deadline, Markets Remain Confident in Negotiations

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed that Wednesday, July 9, remains the deadline for countries to reach new trade agreements with the United States.

Speaking on Monday, he announced that formal letters detailing the terms of individual agreements—or, where no deal has been reached, notices of tariffs—would begin to be sent at noon.

However, some U.S. officials have hinted that countries may have until August 1 to finalize deals, as that is the date when reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect, effectively extending the negotiation window.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that 18 trade partners are currently under review and said he expects to announce several key agreements in the coming days. While he declined to confirm August 1 as the new deadline, Bessent acknowledged there is congestion in the final stretch of negotiations.

[[EUR/USD-graph]]

Trump Targets BRICS Amid Parallel Tensions

At the same time, Trump escalated his rhetoric against the BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—warning on Sunday that the U.S. would impose an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning with what he called the group’s “anti-American policies.” He emphasized that there would be no exceptions.

This warning comes just as the BRICS nations resumed talks over the weekend on developing a cross-border payment system to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and the Western-dominated SWIFT financial messaging network. According to analysts at Portfolio Personal Inversores (PPI), this push adds context to Trump’s warning, as it challenges U.S. financial dominance.

First Deals Already in Place

Meanwhile, two countries have already finalized trade deals with the U.S.

The United Kingdom was the first, signing an agreement in June that slashed U.S. tariffs on British car imports from 27.5% to 10%, while removing tariffs on British aircraft engines and parts.

Vietnam followed on July 2, when Trump announced that goods from the Southeast Asian country would face a 20% tariff, and that transshipped goods from third countries would be subject to a 40% levy. Specific details of the deal have yet to be disclosed.

A more complex case is China. The U.S. and China reached a truce in June under which American tariffs on Chinese imports were set at 55%, while China agreed to a 10% rate on U.S. goods—maintaining the levels established in a temporary agreement the month prior.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, markets remain cautiously optimistic that most deals will be concluded in time, avoiding major disruptions. Investors appear to be pricing in a scenario of continued negotiation rather than escalation.

Mexican Peso Weakens Following U.S. Tariff Delay

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso edged lower against the dollar in Monday’s session, weakening as the greenback strengthened following the U.S. decision to delay the implementation of new tariffs initially set for July 9.

The exchange rate closed at 18.6435 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.6297 pesos in the previous session, according to data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). This represents a depreciation of 1.38 centavos, or 0.07%, for the local currency.

During the day, the dollar traded within a range of 18.7705 (high) and 18.6045 (low). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which tracks the greenback against six major currencies—rose 0.39% to 97.56.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Tariff Deadline Extended

The White House announced Monday that the tariff deadline would be extended from July 9 to August 1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said several trade-related announcements would follow within the next 48 hours.

According to Bessent, tariffs on countries failing to reach agreements would rise to the levels originally announced by President Donald Trump on April 2—before the administration suspended them to allow for negotiations and a 90-day grace period.

Following the announcement of the deadline shift, markets saw a notable uptick in the dollar index, reflecting renewed demand for the U.S. currency.

Trump Escalates Rhetoric Against BRICS

Investors also reacted to fresh comments from President Trump, who warned that countries aligning themselves with the “anti-American policies” of the BRICS bloc would face an additional 10% tariff. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have expressed concern over the growing use of unilateral trade measures that distort global commerce.

Focus on Banxico Minutes

On the domestic front, investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Bank of Mexico’s latest monetary policy meeting. In that meeting, Banxico’s board cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 8%—its fourth consecutive cut of that magnitude.

“Traders will be closely watching this week’s inflation report and Banxico’s meeting minutes to assess the central bank’s stance amid persistent external volatility,” said Quásar Elizundia, analyst at Pepperstone.

Cryptocurrencies Trade Mixed at Start of Week Ahead of Key U.S. Legislative Debate

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The crypto market opened the week on mixed footing this Monday, July 7, amid mounting global uncertainty.

Bitcoin held below $109,000, slipping 0.2%, weighed down by two major factors: new tariff threats from President Donald Trump and anticipation surrounding upcoming regulatory debates in the U.S. Congress over digital assets.

On Sunday, Trump announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on countries that “align with the anti-American policies of the BRICS,” though he did not specify what actions would constitute such alignment.

Beginning Monday, the U.S. will begin sending formal notifications to trade partners outlining the specific tariffs and negotiated conditions. The measure is expected to take effect by Wednesday, July 9, when a 90-day trade truce with several countries officially expires.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Despite the tense backdrop, Bitcoin is up 0.9% on the week. Altcoins also show moderate gains, led by Ripple (XRP), which recently filed an application for a U.S. banking license. Ethereum (ETH) rises 0.6% to $2,552.30, while Tron (TRX) is up 0.1% to $0.2862.

BNB remains flat at $661.48 after a minor 0.1% dip, Solana (SOL) slips 0.5% to $150.52, and meme token Dogecoin (DOGE) is down 0.5% to $0.1684.

“Crypto Week” Set to Begin July 14

At the same time, the digital asset ecosystem is bracing for what market analysts are calling “Crypto Week,” beginning July 14, when the U.S. Congress is scheduled to debate three pivotal bills: the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Act, and the GENIUS Act. These legislative efforts aim to provide a clearer legal framework for the industry while strengthening digital privacy rights.

If passed, the bills could offer a much-needed boost to the sector—especially as many altcoins continue to struggle amid investor uncertainty. While Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital, other tokens have seen consistent outflows, and even major meme coins are experiencing declines. However, some patterns suggest the potential for a short-term rebound.

Trade Decisions Could Be a Turning Point

This week may prove decisive for risk assets. With markets reopening after the Independence Day holiday, investor attention is turning to Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” as well as the July 9 expiration of the current tariff pause. A negotiated resolution with key trading partners could help lift market sentiment. But if no agreement is reached, renewed trade tensions could spark a broad market correction.

Tesla Falls 7% After Elon Musk Announces the Launch of a Political Party

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Tesla shares fell sharply by 7% on Wall Street Monday, rattled by CEO Elon Musk’s latest political move: the launch of the “American Party,” a new political force aimed at challenging the U.S. two-party system. The announcement triggered immediate backlash from President Donald Trump, who has been locked in an increasingly public feud with Musk in recent weeks.

The stock movement reflects growing market concerns about Musk’s focus on Tesla’s operations at a time when global uncertainty and heightened competition in the tech sector demand clear, committed leadership. Investors view Musk’s decision to create a new political party as a potential distraction—at odds with current market priorities of performance, efficiency, and strategic clarity.

Tensions with Trump and Regulatory Risks

The escalating conflict with Trump is also weighing on investor sentiment. In a post on Truth Social, the president slammed Musk as a “disaster” and dismissed the new party as “ridiculous” and “chaotic.”

Analysts warn that this tension could have tangible consequences for Musk’s businesses, ranging from the potential loss of subsidies and tax incentives to the risk of government contracts being pulled from Tesla or SpaceX.

[[TSLA/USD-graph]]

Earlier this year, Tesla stock also showed weakness when Musk took on responsibilities at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a move widely seen as a distraction from his core executive duties. Shareholder pressure eventually pushed Musk to scale back his role in government, a decision that coincided with a rebound in the stock’s performance. Now, with the founding of the American Party, fears of renewed distraction have resurfaced.

Leadership Under Scrutiny

Building a political party in the United States is a monumental undertaking—requiring national funding, state-level infrastructure, and a defined electoral agenda. For investors, the key question is whether Musk can continue leading Tesla effectively while simultaneously launching a national political opposition movement.

“Leadership is once again a topic of concern within Tesla’s boardroom. Musk’s priorities are no longer clear,” noted one Wall Street insider.

For now, Tesla stock remains under heavy selling pressure, and analysts expect continued volatility in the coming days as the market awaits clear signals from Musk regarding his commitment to the automaker.

Mexican Peso Closes Week Higher as Markets Stay Focused on Donald Trump

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Markets were quiet on U.S. Independence Day, with traders increasingly focused on the upcoming deadline for new U.S. tariffs on several countries.

The Mexican peso ended Friday’s session with gains against the dollar. The local currency strengthened slightly in thin trading, as U.S. markets remained closed for the July 4 holiday.

The exchange rate closed at 18.6297 pesos per dollar. Compared to Thursday’s official close of 18.6629, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the peso appreciated by 3.32 centavos, or 0.18%.

The dollar traded in a narrow range, hitting a high of 18.6703 pesos and a low of 18.6144. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.18% to 97.01.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

On the week, the peso posted a solid gain. Compared to last Friday’s close of 18.8529, the currency improved by 22.32 centavos, or 1.18%, reaching its strongest level in over 10 months.

Markets showed little movement and remained cautious on Friday due to the U.S. holiday, as attention shifts to the looming deadline for the reactivation of reciprocal tariffs, set for July 9—dubbed “Liberation Day” by the Trump administration.

Investors are watching closely to see whether President Trump will finalize new trade agreements or opt to extend the current tariff pause.

Mexican Stocks See Marginal Gains as Tariff Uncertainty Looms

Mexico’s stock markets ended Friday slightly higher, with local indices edging up as investors began to look toward the end of Trump’s grace period on tariffs targeting multiple countries.

The benchmark S&P/BMV IPC index, which tracks the most traded Mexican stocks, rose 0.15% to 57,977.76 points. The FTSE BIVA index, from Mexico’s Institutional Stock Exchange (Biva), advanced 0.09% to 1,169.76 points.

For the week, the S&P/BMV IPC gained 1.02%. So far in 2025, the index has surged 17.10%—a performance that has outpaced many of its U.S. counterparts.

European Stocks Fall Broadly Amid Global Tariff Uncertainty

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

European stock markets closed broadly lower on Friday, as investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of the July 9 deadline set by former U.S. President Donald Trump for global trade agreements.

The losses were compounded by the absence of trading in Wall Street due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Just days before the official end of the trade negotiation window, Trump ramped up his rhetoric, stating he would send letters to countries “asking them to start paying to do business in the U.S.”

In that context, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that a wave of trade deals would be unveiled after July 9, adding that around 100 countries could face tariffs of at least 10%.

Bessent also commented on Europe’s situation, warning that “if the euro hits $1.20, the Europeans will start to complain.”

Red Across Europe

The uncertainty prompted investors to take a more defensive stance, especially since several key trading partners—including the European Union—have yet to finalize any definitive trade deals. As a result, the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.5% on the day.

[[DAX-graph]]

Basic resources led the sectoral declines, falling 1.4%, as prices of key industrial metals, including copper, came under pressure. Eurozone banks followed with a 1.3% drop, with Spain’s BBVA among the worst performers, losing 2.6%.

The tech sector also weighed on the index, with major names like ASML Holding (-2.6%), SAP (-1%), and STMicroelectronics (-0.9%) trading lower.

On the other hand, pharmaceutical giants Novartis, Roche, and Novo Nordisk—some of the heaviest components of the STOXX 600—posted gains.

Country-by-Country Breakdown

In Germany, the DAX declined 0.6%, further pressured by disappointing industrial goods order data. Similarly, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.8%, dragged down by a sharp drop in May’s industrial production.

Shares of French alcohol producers Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau, and LVMH (owner of Hennessy) recovered from session lows after China announced it would exempt major cognac producers from the new tariffs on EU goods, as long as they agree to a minimum price threshold.

Spain’s IBEX 35 posted one of the steepest declines among major European indices, shedding 1.52%. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 limited its losses to 0.3%.