Bitcoin Falls Below $66,000, Extending Weekly Losses Beyond 5%

Posted on March 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

For now, geopolitical tensions continue to cloud market sentiment, as Iran and the United States remain far from reaching a peace agreement.

Bitcoin is holding its own on fluctuating factors in the stock market and oil industry.

The cryptocurrency market remains on edge amid uncertainty over potential actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, even as hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East persist. In this context, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $66,000 mark.

The leading cryptocurrency is down 4%, trading near $66,513.40. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) follows suit, declining 4.1% to $1,985.63. Among altcoins, Solana stands out with losses of 5.1%, while XRP is down 3.2%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Middle East tensions persist, keeping markets cautious

Markets extended their cautious tone after Iran rejected a 15-point proposal from the United States to end the conflict, instead putting forward its own five-point plan. At the same time, Iranian media reported that Tehran had largely ruled out the possibility of direct talks with Washington.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was “in negotiations right now” with Iran, noting that Tehran was “speaking sensibly” and appeared open to a peace deal. However, a series of Israeli strikes in Tehran heightened investor caution, undermining signs of potential diplomatic progress.

Oil prices, meanwhile, reversed their recent gains, helping to support broader risk appetite. This shift has influenced recent moves in Bitcoin, which has adjusted to the volatile backdrop while showing some resilience despite geopolitical tensions.

Separately, the market reacted mixedly to a new draft of the Clarity Act. In that regard, Coinbase Global—a major industry player—voiced opposition. A key issue in the proposal concerns the treatment of yield payments on stablecoin deposits, as major U.S. banks have called for stricter oversight or even an outright ban, citing potential systemic risks.

Iran Turns to Cryptocurrencies to Evade Sanctions and Hedge Against Inflation

Posted on March 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls more than half of the country’s crypto flows—estimated at over $10 million—while the population increasingly turns to Bitcoin to preserve savings amid inflation exceeding 50%.

The US military may be ending the fight in Iran soon, and investors are hopeful.

Since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, cryptocurrency flows from Iran have shown unusual patterns, raising alarms among leading blockchain analytics firms. According to specialists, these assets are being used both to evade international sanctions imposed on the Revolutionary Guards and as an inflation hedge by civilians.

Largely cut off from the global financial system due to sanctions, Iran has turned to crypto assets as an alternative channel for transactions.

According to data from Chainalysis, cryptocurrencies worth more than $10 million left Iranian platforms between February 28—when Israeli and U.S. bombings began—and March 2. By the 5th of the month, roughly one-third of those funds had already been transferred to foreign platforms.

At the institutional level, both the Revolutionary Guards and the Central Bank of Iran favor stablecoins, while civilians have flocked to Bitcoin, which can be withdrawn from exchanges and stored in private wallets beyond the reach of authorities—a critical feature in a country where inflation was already near 50% before the conflict escalated.

The Iranian regime and cryptocurrencies

Kaitlin Martin told Agence France-Presse that while part of the outflows reflects panic among citizens seeking to safeguard savings, the scale suggests “the involvement of regime actors,” who fear new sanctions or cyberattacks that could cut off access to their assets.

Those concerns are not unfounded. In June 2025, cybercriminals linked to Israel seized roughly $90 million from Nobitex, according to TRM Labs.

Last year, wallets linked to the Revolutionary Guards received more than $3 billion in crypto assets—over half of the country’s total flows—according to Chainalysis, and that share continues to grow.

Meanwhile, Elliptic detected ongoing transactions even during official internet shutdowns, indicating that certain actors retain access to digital holdings despite information blackouts.

Shadow finance

According to U.S. authorities, the regime uses crypto to sell embargoed oil and finance allied armed groups, such as the Houthi movement.

Earlier this year, the Financial Times reported that Tehran had also proposed accepting cryptocurrency payments for ballistic missiles, drones, and other advanced weapons systems. “This is truly shadow finance,” Craig Timm told AFP.

Their relative anonymity—driven by global regulatory gaps—combined with speed and lower transaction costs compared to traditional banking, makes cryptocurrencies a versatile tool for countries under international sanctions, such as North Korea and Russia.

Wall Street Slides as Donald Trump Casts Doubt on Potential Deal with Iran

Posted on March 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Conflicting signals from Iran and the United States kept markets on edge, as hopes for progress that could restore shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

U.S. equities extended losses on Thursday, March 26, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. was not sure it could—or even wanted to—reach a peace agreement with Iran, triggering a rise in oil prices. Markets continue to show heightened volatility, as investors react to conflicting headlines surrounding the conflict.

Trump stated that Iran was desperate to strike a deal to end the fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign minister, who said Tehran was reviewing a U.S. proposal but had no intention of entering talks to scale back the war.

The selloff accelerated after Trump signaled reluctance to commit to an agreement, compounded by reports of thousands of U.S. troops being deployed to the region.

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1% to 45,959.43 points; the S&P 500 dropped 1.7% to 6,478.41; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.4% to 21,408.08.

The S&P 500 posted its largest daily drop in two months, specifically since January 20.

[[SPX-graph]]

Trump says Iran is “begging” for a deal

Wall Street’s main indexes had risen in the previous session, driven by expectations that the United States and Iran might be willing to engage in talks to end the conflict. Media reports suggested Tehran had privately signaled openness to dialogue with Washington, while Vice President JD Vance was reportedly considering a trip to Pakistan for negotiations as early as this weekend.

On Thursday, Trump posted on social media that Iranian negotiators had been “very different” and “strange,” adding that Tehran was “begging” the United States to reach an agreement to end the conflict, which has now lasted nearly a month in the Middle East.

“They’re begging to make a deal. I don’t know if we can do it. I don’t know if we’re willing to do it. They should have done it four weeks ago,” Trump said.

His remarks added to the confusion surrounding the war. The U.S. and Iran appear far apart on key terms to halt hostilities, while the Pentagon continues to deploy additional ground troops to the Middle East.

Oil climbs back above $100

Oil prices jumped as much as 3.8%, with Brent Crude trading slightly above $100 per barrel after the daily gain, bringing its monthly increase to nearly 40%. Meanwhile, WTI Crude rose by a similar margin to $93.79 per barrel.

Fears are mounting that an energy shock could reignite global inflation pressures, prompting central banks to consider further rate hikes. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned of faster price increases and weaker growth if energy prices surge further amid a prolonged conflict.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Reports indicate Iran is reviewing a 15-point U.S. peace proposal, although the White House has warned it will intensify airstrikes if no agreement is reached. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump “does not bluff and is prepared to unleash hell,” while The Wall Street Journal reported that the president has told advisers he would prefer to end the war quickly.

Key movers on Wall Street

Chip stocks posted sharp losses on Thursday, extending declines from the previous session. Shares of Micron Technology (-7.3%), Western Digital (-7.7%), Seagate Technology (-8.3%), and SanDisk (-11%) all closed lower.

On the upside, Salesforce rose 1.2%, providing support to the Dow. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the modernization of its National Contact Center using Salesforce technology and the launch of DOLA, an AI agent developed by Agentforce to assist U.S. workers and retirees.

Meta Platforms Shares Fall to 11-Month Low After Landmark Negligence Ruling

Posted on March 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Rulings totaling more than $380 million in damages are opening the door to thousands of additional lawsuits, raising market concerns about the potential impact on Big Tech balance sheets.

Meta goes down after several rulings.

Shares of Meta Platforms fell more than 7% in today’s session, hitting their lowest level in eleven months, after two U.S. juries found the company liable for failing to adequately warn and protect underage users. The verdicts reignited investor fears of a wave of multi-billion-dollar fines and follow-on litigation, weighing on the broader sector.

A Los Angeles jury on Wednesday held both Meta and Alphabet — Google’s parent company — responsible for the depression suffered by a young user who allegedly developed an addiction to Instagram and YouTube. Damages in that case were set at $6 million.

[[META/USD-graph]]

In parallel, a New Mexico jury ordered Meta to pay $375 million for misleading users about the safety of its platforms for children and for facilitating their exploitation.

Meta, Alphabet, Snap, and ByteDance — the owner of TikTok — collectively face thousands of lawsuits alleging harm to the mental health of teenagers and young users, although the latter two companies reached out-of-court settlements prior to trial.

A turning point for social media?

This marked the first week of oral trials in what is shaping up to be a prolonged legal battle. More than 2,400 cases have been consolidated before a single federal judge in California, while thousands of additional claims are being handled in parallel within the state court system.

The rulings could set a precedent that challenges the legal protections historically enjoyed by major technology platforms in the United States. As a result, shares across the sector are under pressure.

Meta is down more than 7%, trading at its lowest level since mid-April last year. Alphabet is off 2.6%, hovering near its weakest level since November. Snap is the worst performer, plunging 12% on the session and hitting an all-time low.

OECD Warns Middle East War Could Slow Global Growth and Fuel Inflation

Posted on March 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that the war in the Middle East—particularly the conflict involving Iran and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—has derailed expectations for a stronger global economic expansion.

The European Union negotiates with the U.S.

The OECD said Thursday that the conflict has sharply curtailed global growth prospects, with the halt in fuel trade through the Strait of Hormuz threatening to push inflation higher worldwide.

According to the Paris-based organization, the global economy had been on track for a more robust expansion prior to the outbreak of hostilities in Iran—a scenario that has now largely faded. Global GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.3% the previous year, before edging up to 3% in 2027.

The surge in energy prices and the unpredictability of the conflict have offset tailwinds from strong technology-related investment, easing U.S. tariffs under Donald Trump, and momentum carried over from 2025.

The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global hydrocarbons previously flowed—has been largely paralyzed since the start of hostilities on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to restrict access to the strategic route.

“There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the duration and scale of the current Middle East conflict, meaning these projections are subject to significant downside risks that could result in lower growth and higher inflation,” said Mathias Cormann.

Uneven impact

The OECD’s baseline scenario assumes that current energy market disruptions will gradually ease, with oil, gas, and fertilizer prices declining from mid-2026 onward.

However, both the scale and duration of the conflict remain highly uncertain. In that context, Christine Lagarde said this week that the European Central Bank stands ready to raise interest rates again if inflation resurges due to the war.

Eurozone GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.8% in 2026 as higher energy prices weigh on activity, before recovering to 1.2% in 2027. This represents a significant downgrade from December forecasts of 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.

In China, growth is expected to ease to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, broadly in line with previous estimates. Meanwhile, in the United States, growth is projected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027. The OECD had previously forecast 1.7% for this year and 1.9% for 2027, before the Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs.

One of Warren Buffett’s Favorite Stocks Lifts the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Posted on March 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Shares of American Express have surged nearly 25% in 2025, helping lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is up about 13% over the same period.

American Express has emerged as one of the standout performers of 2025, rising 24.6% and ranking among the top gainers in the Dow in a year marked by strong sector rotation and shifting investor preferences.

The broader market backdrop has been positive, albeit uneven. While the Dow Jones climbed toward the 48,000 level, gains were not led by traditional tech stocks but rather by sectors more closely tied to the real economy, such as financials and industrials. In that environment, American Express clearly stood out.

The rally in the company—one of Warren Buffett’s favorite holdings, accounting for roughly 20% of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio and its second-largest position after Apple—has been supported by strong financial results.

Strong financial performance

In 2025, American Express reported revenue of $72.2 billion, up 10% year-over-year, while net income reached $10.8 billion, a 7% increase. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $15.38, marking a 15% adjusted gain and extending a multi-year streak of double-digit growth.

Performance was also underpinned by robust consumer spending. In the fourth quarter alone, billed business totaled $445.1 billion, up 9% year-over-year. Revenue for the same period reached $18.98 billion, also rising 10%.

The trend remained consistent throughout the year. In the second quarter, for example, the company had already posted record revenue of $17.9 billion and spending volumes exceeding $416 billion.

Focus on premium customers

A key driver of American Express’s business model has been its focus on high-income customers, who have maintained strong spending levels despite a high interest rate environment. This segment has shown resilience, supporting growth relative to more cycle-sensitive models.

Additionally, a structural shift in its customer base is underway, with spending from millennials and Generation Z gaining importance within its U.S. consumer business.

Compared with peers, American Express has also outperformed. While its shares have gained करीब 25% this year, Visa is up around 11%, and Mastercard has risen roughly 8.4%, reinforcing its relative positioning within the payments sector.

Wall Street Rebounds on Middle East Peace Hopes

Posted on March 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Investors welcomed signs of a potential ceasefire, hoping for progress that could help restore maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street rebounds as Overvaluation Worries and Macro Uncertainty Hit Sentiment

Major Wall Street indexes closed higher on Wednesday, while oil prices declined again, as the administration of Donald Trump stepped up efforts to end the conflict with Iran—despite Tehran’s rejection of a ceasefire.

According to The New York Times, Washington sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war. Israeli media reported that the proposal would be discussed during a potential ceasefire. However, Tehran denied any negotiations, and Iran and Israel continued exchanging airstrikes on Wednesday.

Markets remained volatile throughout the week, swinging between gains and losses amid conflicting headlines around the conflict.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 46,428.57, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,594.90, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8% to 21,929.83.

[[SPX-graph]]

Brent crude prices fell 2.3% to $97.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined 1.5% to $91.29.

In precious metals, gold rose 2.3% to $4,535.50 per ounce, and silver gained 2.7% to $71.44. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note dropped 1.25% to 4.337%.

Focus shifts to a potential ceasefire

Wall Street had closed lower in the previous session as investors assessed the likelihood of a halt in hostilities between U.S. and Israeli forces and Iran. Fighting continued, while the United States deployed additional military units to the Middle East. Reports also suggested that some Gulf allies were urging Trump to continue the campaign.

At the same time, Trump maintained that negotiations with Iran were ongoing, despite repeated denials from Tehran—adding to market uncertainty. Iranian officials accused the president of using the prospect of peace talks to calm financial market volatility.

Sentiment improved notably in extended trading after Israeli media reported that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner were working on a mechanism to secure a ceasefire and enable negotiations around a 15-point plan. Details were later reported by Axios and The New York Times.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is demanding strict conditions for any ceasefire talks, including the closure of all U.S. bases in the Gulf and the imposition of fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Stagflation risks emerge

Traders are increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of a prolonged conflict—a sentiment reinforced by preliminary U.S. business activity data for March.

The S&P Global PMI fell to its lowest level in 11 months, signaling mounting pressure on overall growth amid rising prices linked to an energy shock stemming from the war.

Eurozone PMI readings also pointed to “warning signs of stagflation,” referring to a combination of persistent inflation and stagnating economic growth.

Christine Lagarde Leaves Door Open to Rate Hike

Posted on March 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Christine Lagarde signaled that the European Central Bank could raise interest rates again if rising oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict trigger a renewed inflation surge in the eurozone.

Christine Lagarde did seem worried about the economy on wednesday.

Lagarde stressed that the ECB must remain alert to early warning signs that volatility in global oil prices is feeding into broader inflation dynamics across the region.

Speaking in Frankfurt, she said the central bank would need to respond forcefully if inflation were to rise well above its 2% target for a prolonged period. However, she added that even a more moderate uptick could justify a “measured” adjustment in interest rates.

“If the crisis leads to a significant, though not overly persistent, deviation from our target, a moderate policy adjustment could be warranted,” Lagarde said.

“Failing to address such a deviation could pose a communication risk: the public may find it difficult to understand a reaction function that does not react,” she added.

Scenarios for Europe

The ECB kept rates unchanged last week but warned of mounting price pressures. While Lagarde did not explicitly align her remarks with a specific ECB scenario, her outlook closely resembles the bank’s “adverse” case.

Under that scenario, inflation would peak above 4% in the second half of this year before returning to target by mid-2027.

In a more severe scenario, inflation could exceed 6% early next year and remain above target for several years. By contrast, in the ECB’s baseline outlook, inflation is expected to average 2.6% this year, compared with 2% last year.

Ready to act

“If we foresee inflation deviating significantly and persistently from our target, the response must be forceful or sustained,” Lagarde said. “Otherwise, upward feedback mechanisms could take hold and the risk of de-anchoring would increase.”

She emphasized that the ECB stands ready to act “at any meeting” and, while it will wait for sufficient data before changing policy, it will not be “paralyzed by uncertainty.”

Lagarde concluded that the ECB must closely monitor early signals that the current crisis is feeding into broader inflation dynamics—including through wages and inflation expectations.

“As projected deviations from our inflation target become larger and more persistent, the need to act becomes more evident,” she said.

Middle East War Pushes U.S. Import Prices to Highest Level in Four Years

Posted on March 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Import costs in the United States rose 1.3% in February, marking the largest increase in nearly four years, as higher energy prices and tariffs added pressure to inflation.

U.S. import prices posted their strongest monthly gain in almost four years in February, reinforcing concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation in the world’s largest economy.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the import price index climbed 1.3% month-over-month, driven by rising oil and natural gas costs. This marked the most significant increase since 2022, as energy prices regain prominence.

Excluding petroleum, import prices also recorded a notable 1.2% increase—the largest since January 2022—supported by higher costs for capital goods and consumer goods, excluding autos.

Meanwhile, export prices also rose sharply, increasing 1.5% in February, the biggest monthly gain since May 2022, highlighting broad-based price pressures across global trade.

On a year-over-year basis, the import price index excluding petroleum rose 2.8% compared with February 2025, reaching its highest level since October 2022. This suggests that a meaningful portion of rising costs—including those linked to tariffs—is being absorbed by U.S. importers.

Inflation in the United States stood at 2.4% year-over-year in February, broadly in line with market expectations, as was core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of the Consumer Price Index. This marks the latest reading before the full impact of the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict is reflected in the data.

The impact of the Middle East conflict

The backdrop is further complicated by geopolitical tensions. The war in the Middle East—particularly the conflict involving Iran—has driven energy prices higher, adding pressure to global cost structures.

This is compounded by the trade policy of Donald Trump, whose administration continues to maintain elevated tariffs on a range of imported goods. While these do not directly appear in the official index, they do affect the final costs faced by businesses.

Additionally, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar since early last year has made imported goods more expensive, while potentially improving the competitiveness of U.S. exports if the trend persists.

SpaceX Seeks $75 Billion Raise Ahead of June IPO

Posted on March 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

SpaceX, the space company founded by Elon Musk, is preparing to launch an initial public offering (IPO) in June that could raise as much as $75 billion—potentially the largest in history.

According to tech news outlet The Information, the company is expected to file its prospectus with securities regulators this week or next, citing a source familiar with the plans.

SpaceX—currently developing spacecraft aimed at reaching Mars—was valued at $1.25 trillion in early February following its merger with Musk’s artificial intelligence venture, xAI.

A record-breaking IPO in the making

In recent months, analysts had expected Musk to target a raise between $30 billion and $50 billion, given strong investor demand for technology companies. The planned IPO now appears set to far exceed the largest offering on record, when Saudi Aramco raised $25.6 billion in 2019.

SpaceX, which dominates the global launch market with its reusable rockets, is owned by Musk alongside several investment funds and technology firms, including Alphabet.

Analysts note that taking SpaceX public would require greater transparency from both the company and Musk—particularly regarding revenues—and could increase pressure to deliver consistent profitability as public-market scrutiny intensifies.

Strong rebound in markets

Against this backdrop, U.S. equities posted a strong rebound. The S&P 500 rose 0.93%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved higher, advancing 1%.

Among the top gainers were Hewlett Packard (+6.8%), Super Micro Computer (+5.6%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+5.39%).

On the downside, the biggest decliners included Generac (-6.7%), Seagate Technology (-7.56%), and Western Digital (-6.22%).