Mexican Peso Gains Against the Dollar After U.S. Measures to Contain Oil Surge

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso rebounded against the U.S. dollar in Thursday trading, reversing early-session losses after the United States issued an exemption allowing the sale of Russian oil to help ease pressure on global energy prices.

The exchange rate closed at 17.7396 pesos per dollar, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). Compared with the previous close of 17.8265, the currency gained 8.69 centavos, or 0.49%.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.9600 at the high and 17.7783 at the low. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.09% to 99.21.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Easing volatility supports the peso

Earlier in the session, markets had shown a more risk-off tone, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on risk assets after Iran targeted energy infrastructure in the Middle East. However, the U.S. announcement helped contain volatility in energy markets and improve overall sentiment.

The Mexican peso showed notable resilience, with analysts pointing to global energy dynamics as the key driver in the near term. Additional support came from comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who stated that Iran no longer has the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles following weeks of airstrikes.

Focus shifts to central banks and data

The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged in its latest decision, while both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank followed suit, reinforcing a cautious stance amid geopolitical uncertainty.

On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 205,000 for last week, below expectations and down from a revised 213,000 in the prior week, signaling continued resilience in the labor market.

NVIDIA Edges Past Silver in Total Asset Value

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

One of the key drivers behind silver’s recent decline has been the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which has climbed to its highest levels in months, making the precious metal more expensive for international buyers and dampening global demand.

Against this backdrop, NVIDIA, the global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) computing, has surpassed silver in market value, becoming the world’s second most valuable asset, behind only gold.

Spot silver fell 5.23% to $71.44 per ounce on Thursday, marking its third consecutive daily decline and bringing cumulative losses to 11.6% over that period. For the year, the metal is now slightly down by 0.1%.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA shares slipped 1.02% to $178.56, extending their year-to-date decline to 4.26% in 2026.

Despite the pullback in its stock price, NVIDIA’s market capitalization reached $4.339 trillion, surpassing silver’s $4.119 trillion, according to Companies Market Cap data.

[[NVDA/USD-graph]]

Gold remains the most valuable asset globally, with a market value of $32.399 trillion. Among equities, Alphabet ranks next with $3.69 trillion, followed by Apple at $3.65 trillion, Microsoft at $2.89 trillion, and Amazon at $2.24 trillion.

Why silver is under pressure

The precious metals market has experienced a sharp sell-off in recent days, driven by several macroeconomic factors.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range at its March meeting and signaled only one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of three. This “higher-for-longer” stance reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar’s strength has added further pressure. Because silver is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more expensive globally, weakening demand.

More broadly, a tighter global monetary backdrop — with major central banks such as the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan signaling caution — has reinforced expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer.

Rising oil prices have also contributed to inflation concerns, further reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets and weighing on the broader commodities complex.

AI leadership supports NVIDIA’s valuation

Despite recent volatility, NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI infrastructure continues to underpin its valuation and allows it to overtake silver in total market value.

The stock has faced pressure from investor concerns over elevated valuation multiples and questions about the long-term returns on AI-related capital expenditures. However, the company continues to deliver strong earnings growth, outpacing much of the broader market.

Even so, increased capital spending and heightened scrutiny over profitability have introduced volatility, highlighting the tension between strong structural growth and near-term market expectations.

Gold and Silver Drop Up to 6.4%, Losing Safe-Haven Appeal

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Precious metals extended their losses on Thursday despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, elevated interest rates, and a lack of hedging demand from investors.

Silver’s Momentum Reset Sets Silver’s Volatile Surge Faces Reality Check as Markets Reassess Risk

Gold and silver continued their downward trend, deepening declines accumulated over recent days — a move that stands out given the geopolitical backdrop, where such assets have historically served as safe havens.

In the spot market, gold fell 5.1% to around $4,500 per ounce. Silver posted an even steeper decline, dropping 6.4%, capping a clearly negative week for both metals.

The sell-off unfolded amid heightened global uncertainty, with declines across both equity and bond markets, as investors closely monitor the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, now entering its third week.

Why precious metals are falling

Contrary to typical market behavior, precious metals are failing to attract safe-haven flows. According to analysts at Julius Baer, prices have weakened since the start of the week, breaking key levels — $5,000 for gold and $80 for silver — highlighting a notable lack of investor interest in hedging under current conditions.

Several factors are driving this dynamic. Chief among them are the strengthening U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain less inclined to ease monetary policy.

“Gold and silver markets are barely reacting to the conflict in the Middle East,” Julius Baer analysts noted, adding that any geopolitical-driven upside is being offset by macroeconomic headwinds.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Similarly, analysts at Kingswood Group pointed out that many investors are even selling traditionally defensive assets to raise liquidity. “We are seeing a phase where safe havens are also being liquidated to fund positions in assets that have reacted more sharply,” they said.

Logistical challenges are also playing a role. Disruptions to air and maritime routes due to the conflict are making the physical transport of gold more expensive and complex, further weighing on demand.

Another key signal is the lack of inflows into gold-backed investment vehicles, suggesting that even at current price levels, hedging demand remains subdued.

Looking ahead, analysts agree that gold may only regain its safe-haven role if global conditions deteriorate further and financial stress intensifies. Silver, however, faces a more challenging outlook, as its performance tends to be more closely tied to the economic cycle than to crisis-driven demand for protection.

Global Merchandise Trade Growth to Slow by Nearly 2% in 2026

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), rising oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the outlook for artificial intelligence investment are weighing on global trade prospects.

Global trade and globalization are declining.

The organization also warned that the war in the Middle East could further worsen the outlook.

Global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, and could decelerate further if the conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up energy prices and disrupt global transport, the WTO said in a report.

If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain elevated throughout 2026 due to the conflict, trade growth could slow even further to 1.4%, WTO economists added. A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would impact major importers such as India, Thailand, and Brazil, increasing risks to global food security.

Higher energy prices could shave 0.5 percentage points off trade growth, with Asian and European importers among the most affected. Services trade is also expected to weaken, with growth projected to decline by 0.7 percentage points — from 4.8% to 4.1% — due to disruptions in maritime and air transport. Services trade expanded 5.3% last year.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that while global trade remains resilient — supported in part by AI-related goods — the outlook is increasingly threatened by escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

AI outlook adds uncertainty

Last year, global merchandise trade grew at nearly twice the expected pace, as strong demand for AI-related products — including chips and semiconductors — offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.

AI-related goods accounted for 42% of global trade growth, despite representing only about one-sixth of total trade. The segment expanded 21.9% year over year to reach $4.18 trillion in 2025. However, the report flagged the sustainability of investment in the sector as “a major uncertainty for 2026 and beyond.”

For this year, global trade in goods and services and global GDP are expected to grow at roughly similar rates — 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively — following growth of 4.7% and 2.9% last year.

Asia is projected to lead merchandise import growth in 2026, with imports rising 3.3% and exports 3.5%, followed by Africa with 3.2% import growth and 1.2% export growth. North America, by contrast, is expected to remain relatively flat, with imports increasing just 0.3%.

Around 72% of global trade is currently conducted under most-favored-nation (MFN) terms, down from roughly 80% at the start of last year, after former President Donald Trump imposed higher import tariffs, WTO economists said. Under MFN rules, WTO members are required to treat all trading partners equally.

Against this backdrop, a new WTO conference will be held in Cameroon next week, where trade ministers are set to discuss potential reforms to the global trade body.

Mexican Peso Weakens Against the Dollar After Fed Policy Announcement

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso, which had already been declining since the open following stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data, extended its losses in line with its regional peers.

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar in midweek trading. The local currency, already under pressure from the start of the session, deepened its losses alongside other regional currencies as markets reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest communication.

The exchange rate closed the session at 17.8265 per dollar. Compared to 17.6645 in the previous session, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), this represented a loss of 16.20 centavos, or 0.92%.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.8774 and a low of 17.6019 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.74% to 100.30 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The Fed announcement

In line with expectations, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The central bank projected higher inflation and a stable unemployment rate, while maintaining its outlook for just one rate cut in 2026.

Market expectations have remained anchored since last week at a single 25-basis-point cut in the December 9 meeting, so the announcement was largely anticipated, said Jorge Adrián Calderón, a fixed income and interest rate derivatives trader.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain. He added that economic activity continues to expand solidly, although job creation has been modest.

A stronger dollar

The dollar also strengthened after Powell signaled that a rate hike cannot be ruled out, even if it is not the base case. The currency had already been gaining since the open following stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data and developments related to Iran.

The peso initially started the session on a positive note, but the exchange rate came under pressure as markets reacted to geopolitical headlines, particularly Iran’s statement identifying energy infrastructure as potential targets.

Earlier in the day, data showed that U.S. producer prices rose well above expectations in February, increasing 0.7% compared to forecasts of 0.3%, not yet reflecting the surge in oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict.

Gold: More Central Banks Buying, but in Smaller Amounts

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Global central bank statistics and the broader gold market point to a slight slowdown in buying momentum at the start of the year, although it is worth noting that the base of demand continues to broaden.

Investor repositioning amid the Middle East conflict and the surge in oil and gas prices remains unclear. Still, gold remains firmly on the radar. It is also true that since the launch of Operation “Epic Fury” by the United States and Israel against Iran, gold prices initially reacted sharply before easing alongside optimistic statements from President Donald Trump. After hovering around $5,000 per ounce, prices have recently slipped to just above $4,800. Several factors may explain this softness, including central bank responses to the evolving global landscape and some degree of demand fatigue after years of heavy accumulation.

That said, the year began with solid demand from retail investors, ETFs, and central banks. The latest available data show that central banks continued to buy gold in January, albeit at a slower pace, while the pool of buyers expanded. According to the World Gold Council, Bank Negara Malaysia made its first net gold purchase since 2018 (3 tons), while the Bank of Korea is considering resuming gold investments for the first time since 2013. Analysts note that geopolitical uncertainty remains a persistent driver of central bank demand, even if January’s heightened volatility proved an exception.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

What happened in January?

Central banks purchased a net 5 tons, well below last year’s monthly average of 27 tons.
Buying was led by central banks in Central and East Asia, though Eastern European institutions also increased reserves. Notably, Central Asia saw activity on both sides: Uzbekistan was among the largest buyers (9 tons), while Kazakhstan was a net seller (1 ton). Russia was the largest seller, offloading 9 tons.
The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) sold 2 tons of gold, but this decline corresponds to an equivalent increase in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) gold reserves, as Bulgaria joins the European Union as its 21st member.
The early-year slowdown in central bank gold purchases—compared to the 27-ton monthly average over the past 12 months—may be linked to price volatility and seasonal factors such as the holiday period, which could have given some central bankers pause. Nevertheless, analysts believe that persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain gold accumulation through 2026 and beyond.

It is worth recalling that gold prices reached highs above $5,300 in January. Even so, central bank buying momentum remained resilient despite elevated prices.

Key reported activity in January:

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan purchased 9 tons, extending its buying streak since October. This brought its total gold reserves to 399 tons. The growth has been remarkable, rising from 57% of total reserves in 2020 to 86% in January 2026.

Bank Negara Malaysia emerged as a new buyer, adding 3 tons—its first increase since 2018—bringing total reserves to 42 tons, or 5% of its total reserves.

Other buyers included the Czech Republic (2 tons), Indonesia (2 tons), and China and Serbia (1 ton each).

China’s 15 consecutive months of gold purchases have lifted gold holdings to nearly 10% of its total reserves.

Wall Street Slides Sharply on Weak Inflation Data and Rising Oil Prices

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Energy supply concerns continue to keep crude prices elevated. As expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged and projected only one rate cut this year.

A bear market is following the release of a report.

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, March 18, after stronger-than-expected producer inflation data dampened investor sentiment, already weighed down by the economic impact of rising oil prices and the Fed’s rate decision.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6% to 46,224.68 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 6,625.38; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.5% to 22,152.42.

[[SPX-graph]]

Fed holds rates steady

As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled just one rate cut this year. The central bank noted that the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains “uncertain.”

The Fed’s latest decision comes at a time when inflation in the United States remains well above target and the labor market is showing mixed signals. The war with Iran has further complicated the outlook for policymakers, with Brent crude—the global oil benchmark—surging nearly 50% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran.

Against this backdrop, U.S. gasoline prices have climbed to their highest levels since October 2023.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range for a second consecutive meeting, after cutting rates by a total of 75 basis points late last year.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have been modest, and the unemployment rate has changed little in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” the FOMC said in a statement. “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

Producer inflation comes in above expectations

Before the market open, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% month-over-month in February, while the annual rate reached 3.4%, driven primarily by higher service costs. The February increase exceeded both January’s 0.5% gain and market expectations of a 0.3% rise.

Meanwhile, core PPI increased 0.5% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, also coming in above consensus estimates.

These figures follow earlier readings that were broadly in line with expectations for consumer and producer prices in January and February. However, the latest data suggest that inflation was already a persistent issue before the sharp rise in oil prices in March due to the war with Iran.

“The PPI confirms what’s becoming clear: the war is causing inflation to spread through the economy, and it won’t be temporary. It will take time to offset the cost pressures stemming from higher oil prices,” said Ross Gerber, president and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Slide Up to 5.3% After Fed Rate Decision

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Bitcoin Falls Below $72,000 While Ethereum Drops Under $2,200.

The cryptocurrency market is posting sharp losses this Wednesday amid global caution after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged and projected higher inflation in the coming months, accelerating Wall Street’s decline.

In this context, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.9% over the past 24 hours to $71,137, according to Binance, while Ethereum (ETH) is shedding 5.3% to trade at $2,199. Altcoins are mostly lower, with losses of up to 5%, led by Solana (-5%) and Dogecoin (-5%).

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range. The surprise came from updated economic projections, particularly higher expected inflation for 2026, driven by volatility in global oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin is showing a modest pullback on the day, reflecting a more defensive market stance. Even so, the asset continues to consolidate within a key technical range between $70,000 and $76,000. Immediate resistance aligns with the recent high near $76,000; a daily close above this level could open the door to a move toward $78,000.

Institutional flows remain strong

Despite the short-term correction, institutional interest remains firm. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $199.4 million in the latest session, marking seven consecutive days of gains and totaling nearly $1.2 billion over that period.

Similarly, Ethereum ETFs added $138.3 million, while products tied to Solana and XRP also saw inflows, albeit on a smaller scale.

According to analysts, these flows reflect structural demand driven by long-term investors. “These are not tactical trades, but strategic allocations by players with extended investment horizons,” market participants note.

This support has helped Bitcoin maintain a relatively stable range, even after a roughly 15% rally and amid a global backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions.

Regulatory shift and new opportunities

On the regulatory front, the United States delivered a notable signal: the SEC and CFTC issued new guidance stating that most cryptocurrencies should not be classified as securities.

This marks a shift from the regulators’ previous stance and could reduce uncertainty that had been holding back some institutional investors. For the market, the new framework opens the door to broader adoption and the development of new financial instruments, including an expansion of crypto ETFs.

Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies are experiencing a pause in prices, but underlying fundamentals continue to show growing support from institutional capital.

Mexican Peso Gains Against the Dollar as Risk Aversion Eases

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso strengthened modestly against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, supported by a lack of new developments in the Iran conflict, as markets positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

The exchange rate closed at 17.6645 pesos per dollar, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). Compared to the previous LSEG reference of 17.6736 (in the absence of an official fixing due to a holiday), the currency posted a marginal gain of 0.05%, less than one cent.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.7394 at the high and 17.6116 at the low. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.25% to 99.56.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Lower risk aversion supports EM currencies

The absence of further geopolitical escalation allowed investors to rotate into higher-beta assets, putting mild pressure on the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

Market participants are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement due Wednesday. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, attention will center on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and any references to geopolitical risks.

If the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, the peso could test the 17.73 resistance level seen earlier in the session. However, if de-escalation in the Middle East persists, the currency may attempt to consolidate within the 17.60–17.65 range.

Australia Hikes Rates Amid War Impact, Adding Pressure on Central Banks

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Australia’s central bank warned that “the conflict in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in fuel prices,” setting the tone for a pivotal week in global monetary policy as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England prepare to announce their decisions.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off the week on Tuesday by raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%. The move reversed two of the three rate cuts delivered last year and pushed borrowing costs to their highest level in ten months, reflecting the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict.

The central bank justified the decision as necessary to contain inflationary pressures, which remain above its 2%–3% target range, in the context of a labor market that policymakers still view as tight.

However, the decision revealed a deeply divided board, passing by a narrow 5–4 vote — the closest split since the RBA began publishing individual voting outcomes.

In its statement, the board emphasized that “the conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in fuel prices” and warned that, if sustained, this trend “will contribute to inflation.”

It also noted that short-term inflation expectations are already rising and that “risks have tilted further to the upside.”

A pivotal week for central banks

The RBA’s decision marks the starting point of a critical week for global central banks, as escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices test policymakers worldwide.

The Federal Reserve began its policy meeting on Tuesday, with its decision due on Wednesday. While markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged this month, attention will focus on updated inflation projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to announce their decisions on Thursday. In both cases, policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, despite mounting inflation risks tied to energy prices.