United States Bond Yields Rise After Strong Employment Data

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds moved higher on Friday after stronger-than-expected labor market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust interest rates in the near term.

The surge in bond yields continues today.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.347%. Despite the daily increase, yields fell 9.4 basis points over the week, marking the largest weekly decline since the week of February 23.

Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yield, which closely reflects interest-rate expectations, climbed 5.2 basis points to 3.85%, though it still declined 6 basis points for the week.

In longer maturities, the 30-year Treasury yield increased 2.4 basis points to 4.914%, while posting a 7-basis-point weekly drop.

Labor market volatility and Fed rate outlook

Earlier in the day, data showed that the United States added 178,000 nonfarm jobs in March, following a downwardly revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%.

However, analysts said the report was not as strong as it initially appeared. “The bond market reaction has moderated somewhat. There were further downward revisions and there is considerable volatility in these data,” said Zachary Griffiths of CreditSights in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The figures are unlikely to significantly alter the outlook for monetary policy, as the economic effects of supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict have yet to fully appear in the data.

After the jobs report, futures tied to U.S. interest rates priced in only one rate cut this year, compared with seven cuts projected late Thursday and as many as 55 before the Middle East conflict escalated.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase warned that negative monthly employment readings may become more frequent. While March was likely too early to capture the full impact of the conflict in the Middle East, some analysts said its effects could start appearing in the April jobs report.

SpaceX Targets $2 Trillion Valuation in Planned IPO

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

SpaceX has reportedly filed confidential paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of preparations for a potential initial public offering, with a valuation that could reach $2 trillion.

SpaceX's value is massively increasing ahead of its public offering. — SpaceX’s value is massively increasing ahead of its public offering.

Discussions are still ongoing, and the details of the listing could change, according to reports. The company is aiming to make its market debut sometime this year.

For years, Elon Musk resisted taking SpaceX public, arguing that pressure from short-term shareholders could interfere with his long-term vision of colonizing Mars. However, the success of the Starship program and the dominance of the Starlink network have pushed the company’s valuation to levels where an IPO is increasingly seen as the logical next step.

Shares of space-sector companies rallied on Wall Street on Thursday following the reports. Intuitive Machines jumped 17%, while AST SpaceMobile gained nearly 9%.

Meanwhile, Virgin Galactic also advanced, rising about 5% during the session.

U.S. Judge Upholds Block on Subpoenas Targeting Jerome Powell

A U.S. judge on Friday reaffirmed his decision to block subpoenas issued as part of a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, a ruling that could further delay efforts by Donald Trump to install a more compliant leader at the central bank.

U.S. District Judge James Boasberg rejected a request from the U.S. Department of Justice to reconsider his earlier ruling, which had effectively halted the criminal investigation involving Powell.

In a March 13 decision, Boasberg determined that subpoenas issued in January to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors were improperly motivated and aimed at pressuring Powell to comply with Trump’s demands for rapid interest-rate cuts or to step down.

The subpoenas—issued by Washington D.C.’s top federal prosecutor, Jeanine Pirro, a close Trump ally—sought information about cost overruns tied to renovations at the Fed’s headquarters, as well as Powell’s congressional testimony last year regarding the project.

By refusing to reconsider the ruling, the court effectively keeps the subpoenas suspended while the case moves toward a potential appeal. Legal experts say the process could extend the standoff between the White House and the central bank, adding another layer of uncertainty around the leadership of the Federal Reserve at a time when interest-rate policy remains a key issue for financial markets.

Argentine Court Suspends Labor Modernization Law Backed by Milei

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Just over a month after its approval, the Labor Modernization Law promoted by President Javier Milei suffered a setback after a labor court provisionally suspended 82 of its 218 articles.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech before the crowd, during an inauguration ceremony at the Congress in Buenos Aires on December 10, 2023.

The ruling was issued following a legal challenge filed by the Confederación General del Trabajo (CGT), which argued that the reform introduced regressive and permanent changes that undermined key labor protections, including safeguards against dismissal and freedom of association.

The union questioned the constitutionality of several provisions in the legislation, claiming they violated fundamental principles such as labor progressivity, union freedom, and the broader legal framework designed to protect workers.

Labor judge Raúl Ojeda accepted the union’s arguments and granted a precautionary injunction.

The ruling also suspended other measures included in Milei’s reform package, such as provisions aimed at repealing the country’s telework law, reducing corporate liability in subcontracting arrangements, and classifying gig economy workers as “independent service providers.”

Following the decision, Argentina’s Ministry of Human Capital of Argentina announced that the government will appeal the ruling. “All necessary legal avenues will be pursued to guarantee the full implementation of the new law,” the ministry said.

Additional hurdles ahead

The court’s decision represents one of the most significant challenges faced so far by the labor reform proposed by the administration of Javier Milei. The legislation is also expected to face further scrutiny in Congress.

In the Senate of Argentina, lawmakers are seeking to repeal the proposed Labor Assistance Fund (FAL), arguing that it does not constitute a genuine social security system but rather an individual capitalization scheme indirectly financed with public resources.

The fund, included in the reform, was designed as an alternative to the traditional severance payment system. Instead of a single payout upon dismissal, employers would make monthly contributions to a fund that workers could access in the event of job termination.

Under the proposal, large companies would contribute 1% of payroll, while small and medium-sized enterprises would contribute roughly 2.5%.

Despite the setback, local media report that the government—through the Procuración del Tesoro de la Nación—is preparing a legal appeal to overturn the decision. Officials argue that the reform is key to economic recovery and to attracting new investment into the country.

U.S. Job Growth Beats Expectations in March

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. economy added 178,000 nonfarm jobs in March, well above the 60,000 expected by economists, although risks to the labor market remain amid the ongoing war in the Middle East.

According to the closely watched report released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the world’s largest economy rebounded after losing 133,000 jobs in February.

The report also showed the unemployment rate edging down from 4.4% to 4.3%.

Despite the stronger-than-expected data, the figures are unlikely to significantly alter the outlook for interest rates, as the economic effects of supply disruptions linked to the conflict have yet to fully materialize. The Federal Reserve last month kept its benchmark rate within the 3.50%–3.75% range, and expectations for rate cuts this year have declined.

Economists expect labor market weakness in the second quarter

In late February, the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran, triggering a surge of more than 50% in global oil prices and pushing domestic gasoline prices higher.

Economists say the war—now in its second month—adds another layer of uncertainty for businesses and could begin to weigh on the labor market in the second quarter.

Mass deportations carried out by the administration of Donald Trump have also contributed to labor market stagnation by reducing labor supply, which in turn affects demand for goods and services, according to some economists.

Because labor supply growth has been historically low, estimates suggest the economy now needs fewer than 50,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population. Some forecasts even place the equilibrium rate near zero or negative.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase warned that negative monthly employment readings may become more frequent, noting that March was likely too early to capture the full economic impact of the Middle East conflict. They said clearer effects could emerge as early as the April jobs report.

Meanwhile, the average retail gasoline price in the United States has climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, adding inflationary pressure and eroding household purchasing power despite solid wage growth.

At the same time, the war erased roughly $3.2 trillion from global equity markets in March, underscoring the broader financial impact of the conflict.

Bitcoin Trades Near $67,000 After Hitting Lowest Level Since September 2024

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Geopolitical tensions continue to cloud market sentiment, while recent remarks from Donald Trump have offered little clarity for investors.

Bitcoin hit a 2026 low after Trump announcement.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile amid the conflict in the Middle East. In that context, Bitcoin briefly climbed above the $67,000 mark, according to data from Binance.

The leading cryptocurrency is still down about 2.9% on the session, trading near $66,928. Meanwhile, Ethereum slipped 0.3% to around $2,061. Among major altcoins, Solana fell 9.1%, while BNB declined 7.4%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Cryptocurrencies await signals from the war

Bitcoin dropped as much as 3.6% during the session, briefly falling below $66,000 — its lowest level since September 2024, a threshold only previously breached during a sharp selloff on February 6 when prices rebounded from around $60,000.

On a six-month basis, the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains down roughly 44.6%.

The war between the United States and Iran continues to shape sentiment in the crypto market. Trump recently said Washington intends to end military operations against Iran within the next two to three weeks and suggested negotiations with Tehran were progressing, though investors still see a risk of further escalation.

According to Dushyant Shahrawat of Bloomberg L.P., Iran plays a notable role in global Bitcoin mining, accounting for roughly 6%–8% of the network’s hashrate. Around 70% of that mining activity is reportedly controlled by the military.

As a result, energy disruptions caused by the conflict have reduced the country’s mining capacity, creating potential systemic fragility for Bitcoin’s network.

Wall Street Ends Mixed After Iran Announces Protocol Plan for the Strait of Hormuz

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Stocks pared earlier losses and finished the session mixed on Thursday after Iranian state media reported that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. U.S. markets will remain closed on Friday for Good Friday.

Major Wall Street indexes significantly reduced their losses after the news. Earlier in the session, equities had declined following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that military operations against Iran could escalate over the next two to three weeks.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1% to 46,504.60 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 21,879.18. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% to 6,582.70.

With markets closed Friday for the holiday, investors remained cautious throughout most of the session, adjusting positions ahead of the long weekend. The prospect of a maritime protocol, however, helped ease some uncertainty.

[[SPX-graph]]

A protocol to ease tensions?

According to Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran is working with Oman to establish a protocol aimed at supervising maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The report cited Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi.

The initiative would seek to facilitate safe passage and improve services for vessels transiting the route rather than impose restrictions, Gharibabadi said.

Oil prices trimmed part of their earlier gains following the report. Brent crude futures for June delivery rose 7.35% to $108.60 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 11.35% to $111.48.

The future of the strait and the possibility of reopening it have been central concerns for investors this week, particularly after Trump’s address to the nation on Wednesday evening.

From the White House, Trump said the United States would intensify operations against Iran in the coming weeks and suggested Washington was close to achieving its objectives.

“We’re going to hit them hard in the next two or three weeks. We’re going to push them back to the Stone Age where they belong,” Trump said, adding that negotiations were still ongoing. He reiterated that weakening Iran’s nuclear capabilities remained a key objective and claimed that much of the country’s naval and missile strike capacity had already been destroyed.

Global markets remain volatile

Asian markets ended the session sharply lower, led by the Kospi (-4.5%) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-2.4%). European stocks followed the negative trend, with the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.6%, Germany’s DAX down 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 losing 0.2%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 slipping 0.14%.

Earlier in the week, optimism had been high following signals from Washington suggesting the United States was seeking a quick end to the war and that Iran’s new government had requested a ceasefire.

[[DAX-graph]]

On Tuesday, the three major U.S. indexes recorded their best session since May 12 of last year, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 3% and the Nasdaq almost 4%. The rally, driven by investor optimism, helped offset part of March’s steep losses after a report by The Wall Street Journal suggested Trump had told advisers he was willing to withdraw from the conflict even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked.

Despite the rebound, markets still posted their worst monthly performance in a year amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the conflict.

Oil Jumps More Than 11%, Surges Past $111

Posted on April 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Oil prices surged sharply on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising more than 11% to $111 per barrel.

U.S. natural gas futures rose on Thursday.

Both WTI and Brent crude moved back above the $100 mark after the latest remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, which delivered mixed signals and revived concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The rally reflects a shift in market expectations. After previously pricing in a relatively quick resolution to the conflict, investors are once again factoring in the risk of prolonged disruptions to global oil supply.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Market analysts say the move in crude prices was driven less by concrete developments than by changing expectations. “Oil doesn’t trade hope — it trades risk and access,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management, noting that the market has tilted back toward a scenario of supply scarcity.

Analysts at FXEM also highlighted that the absence of a clear diplomatic path and threats targeting energy infrastructure and key maritime routes are reinforcing upward pressure on prices. Even if tensions ease, they warn, normalization of supply would likely be gradual due to logistical damage and heightened security risks.

What Trump said — and how markets reacted

In his remarks, Trump combined conciliatory signals with strong warnings. On one hand, he suggested the conflict could end soon, aiming to project an imminent resolution. At the same time, he hardened his tone by warning that the United States could act “with extreme force” if negotiations with Iran fail.

“We’re going to finish the job — and we’re going to do it very quickly,” Trump said, while also leaving open the possibility of intensifying military operations in the short term. He hinted that within weeks the campaign could significantly degrade Iran’s capabilities.

Trump also said that diplomatic channels remain open, though their future depends on the outcome of ongoing talks. If negotiations fail, he warned of coordinated strikes targeting key infrastructure, including energy facilities.

The U.S. president also linked the surge in oil prices to what he described as “attacks by the Iranian regime” on commercial vessels and regional partners, directly blaming Tehran for rising tensions in global markets.

Earlier, Trump had also said on social media that Iran had requested a ceasefire — a claim that Iranian officials later denied.

Bitcoin Holds Above $66,000 After Hitting Lowest Level Since September 2024

Posted on April 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Geopolitical tensions continue to cloud market sentiment, while recent comments from Donald Trump have done little to provide clarity for investors.

Price predictions look good for Bitcoin right now.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile amid the conflict in the Middle East. In that context, Bitcoin briefly recovered above the $66,000 level, according to data from Binance.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is still down about 1.9% on the session, trading at $66,838.13. Meanwhile, Ethereum is following a similar path, falling 3.6% to $2,052.84. Among major altcoins, Solana dropped 6.2%, while BNB declined 5.2%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Cryptocurrencies await signals from the war

Bitcoin fell as much as 3.6% during the session, briefly dropping below $66,000 — its lowest level since September 2024, a threshold only previously breached during a sharp selloff on February 6 when prices rebounded from around $60,000.

On a six-month basis, the leading cryptocurrency remains down roughly 44.6%.

The war between the United States and Iran continues to shape sentiment in the crypto market. Trump recently said Washington could end military operations against Iran within the next two to three weeks and suggested negotiations with Tehran were progressing, though investors remain wary of a potential escalation.

According to Dushyant Shahrawat of Bloomberg L.P., Iran plays a significant role in global Bitcoin mining, accounting for roughly 6%–8% of the world’s hashrate. Notably, around 70% of that mining activity is reportedly controlled by the military.

Energy disruptions caused by the conflict have therefore reduced the country’s mining capacity, potentially creating broader fragility in the Bitcoin network.

Traditional markets under pressure

Financial sentiment in Wall Street also weakened after Trump indicated the conflict with Iran could last several more weeks, reducing hopes for a swift resolution to the war in the Middle East.

In that environment, U.S. stocks traded lower on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25% to 46,448.79 points, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1% to 21,810.28, and the S&P 500 edged down 0.1% to 6,569.67.

Wall Street Starts April Higher on Middle East Ceasefire Signals

Posted on April 1, 2026April 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Major global equity indexes showed a shift in investor sentiment after the latest remarks from Donald Trump.

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, April 1, starting the month on a positive note after a late rally helped Wall Street close a difficult March with a more optimistic tone. Expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East were reinforced after Trump said Iran’s new government had requested a ceasefire.

In that context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 46,565.86 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.69% to 6,573.89 points, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.16% to 21,840.95 points.

[[SPX-graph]]

Could the conflict be nearing a ceasefire?

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the president of Iran’s new government had requested a ceasefire from the United States.

However, he also warned that Washington would only consider such a move once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear.” Until then, he said, the U.S. military would continue its operations.

If confirmed by Iran, such a development would represent a meaningful step toward de-escalation. Still, uncertainty remains around the Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows. Since the start of the conflict, shipping disruptions there have helped drive global crude prices sharply higher.

Trump also said negotiations were progressing, although Iranian officials have often downplayed such claims. Tehran has acknowledged exchanges of messages and expressed a willingness to end the war, provided it receives guarantees that it will not face further attacks.

Economic data: strong consumption and expanding manufacturing

The most relevant data release of the day came from the United States Census Bureau, which reported that retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in February to $738.4 billion. The figure exceeded market expectations of a 0.4% increase and reversed the 0.2% decline recorded in January.

The data suggest consumer spending remains resilient, although the report does not yet reflect the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management showed a slight improvement. The PMI rose to 52.7 in March, remaining in expansion territory and marking the seventeenth consecutive month of economic growth.

After the monetary tightening cycle that began in 2022, the manufacturing sector had spent several years mostly in contraction. However, it began recovering in 2026 following cumulative interest-rate cuts of 175 basis points by the Federal Reserve.

According to Matt Stucky, the most notable component of the report was the prices-paid index, which rose to 78.3 points, reflecting inflationary pressures linked to higher energy, transportation, and raw material costs.

Notable stocks of the session

Shares of Nike Inc. plunged 15.5% despite beating revenue and earnings expectations, as investors reacted to weakness in China and margin pressure.
Eli Lilly and Company rose 3.7% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved a new oral obesity drug, orforglipron.
Alcoa Corporation (+8.6%) and Century Aluminum (+8.2%) advanced after reports of production disruptions in the United Arab Emirates linked to attacks related to the conflict.
Intel Corporation gained 8.8% after announcing the repurchase of a 49% stake in its Fab 34 joint venture in Ireland for $14.2 billion.

Mexican Peso Rises for Second Day Against the Dollar on Stronger Risk Appetite

Posted on April 1, 2026April 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday, advancing for a second straight session as market sentiment improved on expectations that the war in the Middle East could end soon.

The spot exchange rate stood at 17.8317 pesos per dollar. Compared with Tuesday’s close of 17.9252, according to official data from Bank of Mexico, the move represented a gain of 9.35 centavos, or 0.52%.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.9147 and a low of 17.7958 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index — which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major peers — fell 0.34% to 99.55 points.

The greenback weakened across markets as risk appetite improved and oil prices declined on expectations that the conflict between the United States and Iran could end within weeks, according to several reports.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Markets watch Trump closely

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that military operations in Iran could end soon. He added that the Iranian government had requested a “ceasefire,” though he noted that any consideration would depend on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump is expected to address the nation later in the evening with an update on the conflict, according to the White House. Markets are watching closely for any announcement that could ease concerns about inflation and global growth.

Trump’s narrative — describing Iran’s new president as “smart” and suggesting the conflict could conclude within weeks — helped restore investor appetite for risk assets.

Local data and expectations

On the economic front, solid U.S. data provided additional support to markets. Retail sales rose strongly in February, private employment continued to grow in March, and manufacturing activity also rebounded during the month.

Domestically, the Bank of Mexico released the results of its survey of private-sector analysts. The consensus forecast sees the peso ending the year at 18.10 per dollar, unchanged from the previous month, implying a depreciation of nearly 1.5%.

Limited movement in the exchange rate is expected in the coming sessions due to public holidays in Mexico. Traders will remain focused on developments in the Middle East while awaiting further news that could confirm the recent improvement in market sentiment.