Mexican Peso Weakens Slightly Against Dollar After U.S. Strikes in Iran

Posted on May 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso posted a slight decline against the U.S. dollar in the second trading session of the week, as markets turned cautious following reports of U.S. strikes on Iran that could complicate ongoing peace negotiations.

The peso closed at 17.2949 per dollar, compared with 17.2810 in the previous session, according to Banco de México (Banxico), representing a loss of 1.39 centavos, or 0.08%.

During the session, the exchange rate traded between a high of 17.3434 and a low of 17.2760. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped 0.10% to 99.14 points.

The United States reportedly carried out strikes on Monday targeting vessels allegedly attempting to deploy mines and missile launch sites in Iran, in operations described as defensive. Iran, in turn, accused Washington of violating the ceasefire.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Navy has resumed escorted shipping operations in the Strait of Hormuz, reversing earlier indications that the “Project Freedom” initiative had been suspended.

In the near term, analysts expect the peso to remain in a consolidation range between 17.20 and 17.45, though rising geopolitical uncertainty could gradually increase the currency’s risk premium in the coming sessions.

Mexican Stocks Rebound After Three-Day Losing Streak

Mexico’s equity markets closed Tuesday’s session with solid gains, rebounding after three consecutive days of losses, even as global sentiment remained cautious due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The benchmark S&P/BMV IPC index rose 1.37% to 69,197.57 points, while the FTSE BIVA index advanced 1.49% to 1,389.14 points.

The recovery came after a weak stretch for local equities and was also supported by reduced global trading volumes, following the U.S. holiday that limited activity across international markets.

Bitcoin Falls Below $76,000 as Altcoins Drop Up to 4%

Posted on May 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Cryptocurrencies lost momentum over the past hours as uncertainty over U.S.–Iran negotiations and renewed institutional outflows weighed on sentiment across digital assets.

Ethereum is down compared to last week's price, but it could stabilize soon. — Ethereum is down compared to last week’s price, but it could stabilize soon.

While the start of the week had shown a promising rebound for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, enthusiasm faded on Tuesday after renewed U.S. strikes in Iran dampened hopes for a near-term peace agreement. At the same time, cooling inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added further pressure on the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.7% over the past 24 hours to $75,955, leaving it up 1.3% on a weekly basis, according to Binance data.

The Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index declined to 36.11 on Monday, its lowest level since September last year and close to the lowest readings since 2023. The index tracks expected 30-day volatility derived from real-time crypto options pricing.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

After two weeks of correction, Bitcoin appears to have found a consolidation zone around $77,000, following a drop of more than 6% from the $83,000 peak reached earlier in May.

Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.7% on the day, remaining broadly flat in recent sessions at around $2,073. Among altcoins, losses were widespread, with Hyperliquid, Solana, and XRP falling between 1.7% and 4%, while Tron bucked the trend with a 0.9% gain.

Focus on the Strait of Hormuz

Renewed uncertainty in the Middle East pushed investors toward traditional safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar and gold, while weighing on equities and cryptocurrencies.

Although U.S. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that negotiations with Iran were progressing “in an orderly and constructive manner,” the U.S. military later confirmed it carried out “defensive” strikes in southern Iran.

The operation reportedly targeted vessels allegedly attempting to deploy mines, as well as missile launch sites.

ETF flows cool down

ETF demand—one of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s rally this year—has also shown signs of weakening. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded net outflows after a strong institutional buying phase earlier in the quarter.

In total, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $1.26 billion in net outflows over the past week, signaling a more cautious stance among investors amid expectations that U.S. interest rates may remain elevated for longer.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit Fresh Records as Micron Shares Surge

Posted on May 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Investors remain hopeful that recent U.S. strikes in the Middle East will not derail ongoing negotiations with Iran.

Nasdaq is up today after days of declining numbers for the market.

Wall Street posted a strong rally on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reaching all-time highs, although the session ended mixed. Gains were driven by a surge in semiconductor stocks, led by Micron Technology, which crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time.

Initial optimism was fueled by weekend reports suggesting that Washington and Tehran were moving closer to a peace agreement. However, renewed U.S. military activity in the region complicated the diplomatic outlook.

[[SPX-graph]]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.23% to 50,461.68 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.62% to 7,519.47 points and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% to 26,656.18 points.

U.S. says strikes were “defensive”

Expectations of a potential breakthrough in the nearly three-month conflict in the Middle East increased after U.S. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated” following talks with regional leaders.

Sentiment, however, weakened after the U.S. military reported what it described as “defensive” strikes in southern Iran, sinking two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels allegedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks triggered Iranian retaliation, including missile fire toward U.S. aircraft. Subsequent strikes reportedly targeted missile launchers near Bandar Abbas, according to The Wall Street Journal citing a U.S. official.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations with Iran could take “a few more days,” adding that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, but would eventually reopen “one way or another.”

Oil, bonds, and inflation in focus

Brent crude futures rose 4.3% to $97.42 per barrel, recovering after briefly falling below $100 in the previous session but remaining well above pre-conflict levels. The U.S. dollar edged higher, while gold prices declined.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Bond markets remained in focus following a global selloff driven by rising inflation expectations linked to higher energy prices. The pressure on fixed income eased toward the end of last week and extended into Tuesday.

U.S. Treasury yields fell broadly, with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping 7 basis points to 4.506%. Markets now await Thursday’s release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

AI and chip rally drives market strength

The strong rally in artificial intelligence-related stocks has helped Wall Street withstand geopolitical volatility and push to record levels. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a key gauge of chip stocks, also hit an all-time high in April and extended its winning streak, marking its longest run of consecutive gains on record.

Micron Technology was the standout performer of the session, surging 20% and pushing its valuation above $1 trillion for the first time.

ECB Revises Inflation Outlook, Flags Private Credit Risks

Posted on May 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to revise its inflation and growth forecasts in June to reflect the deterioration in the economic outlook caused by tensions in the Middle East, according to chief economist Philip Lane.

At the same time, the central bank acknowledged that parts of the eurozone financial system may be exposed to indirect stress stemming from recent turbulence in private credit markets.

“Several factors related to the war in Iran suggest that the macroeconomic outlook has worsened,” Lane said in an interview with Nikkei. He also noted that oil prices are expected to remain elevated for longer than the ECB anticipated in its March projections.

While increased U.S. natural gas supply could help cushion energy markets, Lane argued that, on balance, recent developments have created upward pressure on inflation. As a result, he said it is “likely” that the ECB will raise its inflation forecast in its next set of projections, scheduled for release on June 11.

Growing Attention on Private Credit

The comments come as private credit markets—particularly in the United States—continue to expand rapidly, raising questions about potential spillovers to Europe’s financial system and the opacity of links between private lenders and traditional financial institutions.

In its latest Financial Stability Review, the ECB stated that eurozone financial institutions appear to have only limited direct exposure to private credit. “This makes it unlikely that private credit, on its own, could currently become a source of systemic financial instability,” the central bank said.

However, policymakers acknowledged that some sectors could still face indirect risks. The ECB warned that limited regulatory visibility into the size and concentration of exposures may weigh on investor confidence if market conditions deteriorate.

Insurance companies and pension funds were highlighted as particularly vulnerable to second-round valuation losses in a stress scenario, due to broader spillovers affecting leveraged loans, high-yield bonds, and equity markets.

Although overall exposure remains relatively modest at the eurozone level, it is concentrated among a small number of investors. Insurance companies hold approximately €211 billion in private credit assets, while pension funds account for roughly €52 billion.

The ECB also cautioned that some eurozone businesses reliant on private credit financing are facing weakening business prospects. Because private credit is often extended to unrated mid-sized companies with weaker credit profiles, these borrowers may be especially vulnerable to an economic slowdown.

For now, the ECB does not view private credit as a systemic threat, but officials are increasingly monitoring the sector as geopolitical uncertainty, tighter financial conditions, and slowing growth add pressure to global markets.

Bitcoin Rebounds to $77,000 on Oil Drop and Iran Truce Hopes

Posted on May 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Cryptocurrencies started the week attempting to resume their upward trend, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing back toward $77,000, up 1.3% on the day. Ether (ETH) followed the move, rising 1.4% over the past 24 hours to hover near $2,100.

Bitcoin surges sharply Monday as the market looked bearish.

Across the broader market, major tokens traded mostly higher. Binance Coin (BNB), Tron (TRX), XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) posted gains of up to 1.6%, while losses were concentrated in Monero (-1%) and HyperLiquid (-2%).

The session was shaped by thin liquidity conditions, as several major markets remained closed. U.S. markets were shut for Memorial Day, London was closed for the Spring Bank Holiday, and Argentina also observed a public holiday, limiting activity across key trading venues. The reduced participation likely amplified price swings in crypto markets.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Oil Drop and Bond Yields Fuel Risk Appetite

The main driver behind the rebound came from energy markets. Oil prices tumbled on growing expectations of a potential agreement between Washington and Tehran, easing inflation concerns and supporting risk appetite across global assets.

Donald Trump commented on Truth Social that negotiations with Iran are progressing “in an orderly and constructive manner,” while also noting he instructed his team not to rush a deal, arguing that time remains on their side.

At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields eased, providing additional support for risk assets. The 10-year yield retreated from the 4.6%-4.7% range to around 4.5%, while the U.S. dollar index slipped from roughly 99.2–99.3 to 98.7–98.8.

[[USOIL-graph]]

ETF Outflows Remain a Drag

Despite the price recovery, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained weakness in investor flows. According to SoSoValue data, the products recorded six consecutive sessions of net outflows between May 15 and May 22, totaling approximately $1.55 billion.

The most significant outflow occurred on May 18, when redemptions reached $648.6 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $448.4 million of that figure.

The persistent withdrawals remain one of the key headwinds for crypto markets, even as macro conditions turn more supportive.

Winklevoss Twins Donate $21M in Bitcoin to Donald Trump

Posted on May 25, 2026May 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Crypto entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, founders of the Gemini exchange, donated $21 million in Bitcoin to a political action committee linked to Donald Trump’s re-election campaign.

Trump can take credit for the bullish Bitcoin trend.

The move reinforces the twins’ position as some of the most prominent supporters of the crypto industry’s alignment with the Republican candidate, while further strengthening their long-standing bullish stance on Bitcoin.

The transfer came alongside a public statement from Cameron Winklevoss, who directly tied rising U.S. debt levels to Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value. Posting on X, he argued there are “39 trillion reasons to buy Bitcoin,” referencing U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $39 trillion.

Bitcoin as a hedge against debt

The Winklevoss twins have long argued that Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins makes it a natural hedge against government debt expansion and monetary debasement.

In their view, Bitcoin functions as “digital gold” or “Gold 2.0,” with the potential to emerge as a global reserve asset in an environment of weakening fiat currencies.

Cameron Winklevoss has previously suggested that Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million if it displaces part of gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.

A volatile market backdrop

Despite the optimism among crypto advocates, Bitcoin has continued to exhibit high volatility. Late last year, Cameron Winklevoss described sub-$90,000 levels as a buying opportunity ahead of a renewed rally.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

However, the market did not follow that path, with Bitcoin later correcting toward the $74,000 range.

Still, many industry figures continue to argue that Bitcoin serves as a hedge against rising sovereign debt and currency debasement.

A growing narrative in financial markets

The Winklevoss stance aligns with views expressed by figures such as Michael Saylor, Anthony Pompliano, and television host Jim Cramer, who have all at times linked rising U.S. debt to the appeal of scarce digital assets.

The narrative has gained traction across parts of the crypto and financial community, centered on the idea that as governments expand debt and central banks maintain liquidity, fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin may become increasingly attractive to long-term investors.

Oil Falls Below $100 as Global Stocks Surge on Hopes for Peace

Posted on May 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Global markets started the week with strong gains, reaching their highest levels in more than two months as investors embraced risk following signs of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran.

The US military may be ending the fight in Iran soon, and investors are hopeful.

The improvement in geopolitical sentiment also pushed oil prices lower, boosting confidence across financial markets. Crude prices fell below the $100-per-barrel mark, reaching their lowest level in a month.

The rally was fueled by optimism after comments from Washington suggested that a potential understanding with Tehran could pave the way for a de-escalation of tensions and the full reopening of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a key route for a significant share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade.

However, a final agreement has yet to be reached, and major differences remain regarding Iran’s nuclear program and broader regional security arrangements.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Analysts continue to urge caution. Invezz noted that markets have swung sharply in recent weeks in response to developments in the Middle East, while several strategists warned that there is still no definitive evidence of a lasting resolution to the conflict.

Even so, the impact on energy markets was immediate. Brent crude fell 5%, slipping back below $100 per barrel and retreating from the highs reached during the most intense phase of the crisis. Lower oil prices provided relief for equity investors by easing inflation concerns and reducing the likelihood of more restrictive monetary policies.

Markets Celebrate the Relief Rally

Although U.S. cash markets are closed for the Memorial Day holiday, equity futures point to a strong session ahead. S&P 500 futures rose 0.95%, Nasdaq futures gained 1.4%, and Dow Jones futures advanced 0.89%.

In Europe, the pan-European STOXX Europe 50 climbed 1.8%, moving back toward record highs and recovering losses accumulated during the months of heightened Middle East tensions.

[[DAX-graph]]

Germany’s DAX gained 1.57%, extending the broader European recovery, while France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.82%, supported by strength in technology and consumer-related stocks. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 also traded higher, though more modestly, adding 0.22%.

The strongest gains were concentrated in banks, airlines, and consumer-facing companies—sectors particularly sensitive to energy costs and expectations for economic growth.

European airlines were among the biggest beneficiaries of the decline in oil prices. Companies such as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM posted strong gains on expectations of lower fuel expenses, while banks also moved higher as investors became more optimistic about the economic outlook.

Goldman Sachs Explains Why Stocks Ignore Hormuz Tensions

Posted on May 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Goldman Sachs argues that strong corporate earnings growth continues to underpin global equity markets, particularly in the technology and energy sectors.

The logo for Goldman Sachs is seen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., November 17, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/Files

However, the bank warned that investor optimism may be running ahead of fundamentals as higher oil prices, rising interest rates, and tightening global financial conditions create new risks for stocks.

Despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a sharp increase in oil prices, and growing concerns over a potential global stagflation scenario, major equity markets continue to trade near record highs. According to Goldman Sachs, the key reason behind this resilience remains unchanged: corporate profits are still expanding at a healthy pace, supporting investor demand for risk assets.

In a report led by strategist Peter Oppenheimer, the bank projected global nominal GDP growth of 5.9% this year, up from 4.7% in 2025. Such an environment, Goldman noted, continues to provide favorable conditions for earnings growth even amid a more challenging geopolitical backdrop.

“Earnings growth remains robust,” Goldman wrote, explaining why investors have largely maintained their exposure to equities despite rising international uncertainty.

Technology and Energy Continue to Drive the Rally

According to the bank, the market’s advance is being led primarily by technology and energy companies, which account for a significant share of upward earnings revisions for the coming years.

Consensus forecasts for S&P 500 earnings per share in 2026 and 2027 have been revised higher by eight percentage points since the start of the year. The upgrades reflect stronger expectations for artificial intelligence-related investment and higher energy prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East.

[[SPX-graph]]

Goldman cautioned, however, that the rally remains highly concentrated. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 10% so far in 2026, with roughly 85% of that performance coming from companies in technology, media, and telecommunications.

Meanwhile, markets benefiting directly from the global semiconductor boom have posted even stronger returns. South Korea’s stock market, for example, has surged nearly 80% year-to-date.

Warning Signs Are Emerging

While market conditions remain supportive, Goldman Sachs has begun to identify signs of growing investor complacency.

The bank noted that its Risk Appetite Indicator climbed above 1.1 last week, placing it in the 99th percentile of readings since 1991—a level historically associated with excessively optimistic market sentiment.

Retail trading activity has also accelerated, rising 28% since mid-April, signaling increasingly aggressive participation from individual investors.

At the same time, equity risk premiums continue to compress even as sovereign bond yields move higher, a combination that is raising concerns across Wall Street.

According to Goldman, a prolonged disruption to oil supplies during the second half of the year, coupled with rising inflation expectations, could ultimately trigger a correction in equity markets despite the current strength in corporate earnings.

Dow Jones Hits Weekly Record as Bond Yields and Oil Prices Ease

Posted on May 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Easing pressure in the bond market and a weekly decline in oil prices helped lift U.S. equities on Friday, while investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and signals from the Federal Reserve.

U.S. stocks advanced on May 22, capping a positive week as Treasury yields retreated and energy prices moderated. Markets navigated a volatile stretch shaped by diplomatic developments in the Middle East and earnings reports from major corporations, including NVIDIA (-2%) and Walmart (-0.7%).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.58% to 50,579.70, setting a new weekly closing record. The S&P 500 gained 0.36% to 7,472.73, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19% to close at 26,343.97.

[[SPX-graph]]

A Week Defined by Bond and Oil Volatility

U.S. equities began the week under pressure as a sharp selloff in global bond markets pushed benchmark yields to multi-year highs.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed to its highest level in more than a year, while the 30-year Treasury yield reached levels not seen since 2007. The bond selloff reflected growing expectations that major central banks may need to raise interest rates further to contain inflationary pressures fueled by higher energy prices amid the conflict involving Iran.

At the same time, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting showed that most policymakers believe additional rate hikes could be necessary if inflationary pressures linked to the energy sector persist. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate increase from the Fed before year-end.

Some analysts argue that monetary policy may already be leaning too aggressively toward guarding against labor-market weakness, even as inflation risks remain elevated.

Diplomatic Signals Improve Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment improved during the second half of the week as bond-market volatility eased and oil prices retreated from recent highs.

Diplomatic developments between the United States and Iran also supported risk assets. Iran’s foreign minister held talks with Pakistani officials, with Pakistan once again acting as a mediator between Washington and Tehran.

According to Iranian media reports and Reuters, negotiations are focused on narrowing differences surrounding proposed peace arrangements. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there were “encouraging signs” of progress but cautioned against excessive optimism.

Despite easing concerns, Brent crude still rose 1.5% on Friday to $104.11 per barrel, although it finished the week down nearly 5%.

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls to Record Low

Another key market development was the release of the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan.

The index fell to 44.8 in May from 49.8 in April, marking the lowest reading on record.

“Consumer sentiment declined for a third consecutive month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to push gasoline prices higher,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the university’s Surveys of Consumers.

The survey also showed that 57% of respondents reported that elevated prices were negatively affecting their personal finances, up from 50% the previous month.

Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations edged up to 4.8% in May from 4.7% in April, while long-term inflation expectations climbed to 3.9%, remaining well above levels typically considered consistent with price stability.

Mexican Peso Weakens Against the Dollar but Posts Weekly Gain

Posted on May 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso lost ground against the U.S. dollar on Friday as investors awaited developments in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations while digesting a fresh batch of domestic economic data.

The exchange rate closed at 17.3198 pesos per dollar, compared with 17.2963 in the previous session, according to official figures from Bank of Mexico. The move represented a decline of 2.35 centavos, or 0.14%, for the Mexican currency.

During the session, the dollar traded within a range of 17.2886 to 17.3500 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, edged up 0.04% to 99.30.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Markets remained focused on diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran. With mediation from Pakistan, both sides reportedly moved closer to a potential agreement to end hostilities, although disagreements over Iran’s uranium stockpiles and control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to prevent a final deal.

Mixed Domestic Economic Signals

At home, investors assessed revised economic figures showing that Mexico’s economy contracted less than previously estimated during the first quarter.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined 0.6% quarter-over-quarter compared with the October–December period, while annual growth came in at just 0.2%, highlighting the economy’s ongoing slowdown.

Inflation data offered a more encouraging signal. Consumer prices moderated more than expected during the first half of May, although inflation remained above the central bank’s target range. The consumer price index rose 0.16% during the period, bringing annual inflation to 4.11%.

The latest economic data arrived shortly after Moody’s Ratings downgraded Mexico’s sovereign credit rating to Baa3, the lowest level within investment grade. The move followed a decision by S&P Global Ratings last week to revise the outlook on Mexico’s BBB rating to negative.

Weekly Performance Remains Positive

Despite Friday’s decline, the peso still posted a modest gain for the week.

Compared with last Friday’s close of 17.3428 pesos per dollar, the Mexican currency appreciated by 2.30 centavos, or 0.13%, reflecting resilience despite ongoing global uncertainty and concerns about domestic economic growth.