Tesla Reports Better-Than-Expected Earnings, but Shares Fall

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Tesla reported first-quarter results on Wednesday, April 22, beating Wall Street expectations despite continued weakness in its core automotive business.

However, the stock fell around 2–2.5% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor concerns about underlying trends.

The results come at a time of growing tension between the company’s current business slowdown and its ambitious long-term bets on artificial intelligence infrastructure, autonomous vehicles, and commercial robotics.

Mixed results, but above expectations

Tesla posted revenue of approximately $22.4 billion, down about 10% from $24.9 billion in the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings per share came in at around $0.41—above expectations but below the prior quarter’s $0.50.

Gross margin, a key focus for investors, improved slightly by 1%, surprising markets that had expected a decline from the previous 20.1%. Meanwhile, EBITDA fell to roughly $3.67 billion from over $4.15 billion in the prior quarter.

[[TSLA/USD-graph]]

Free cash flow edged higher to about $1.44 billion, up slightly from $1.42 billion, despite increased investment levels.

Automotive weakness weighs

Despite the earnings beat, several indicators showed clear deterioration—largely driven by the automotive segment.

Vehicle deliveries dropped 14% quarter-over-quarter, amid weaker global demand for electric vehicles, rising competition—particularly from Chinese manufacturers—and the gradual phaseout of subsidies such as the $7,500 U.S. tax credit, which had previously supported demand. Registrations in California, one of Tesla’s key markets, also fell by more than 20%.

As a result, the gap between production and deliveries widened again, raising concerns about demand absorption and the potential need for further price cuts—putting pressure on margins.

Other segments and long-term strategy

Tesla’s energy generation and storage business, which had helped offset automotive weakness in recent years, unexpectedly contracted by 12% year-over-year.

At the same time, the services and software segment continues to gain importance, particularly through initiatives like Full Self-Driving (FSD), the company’s advanced driver-assistance system offered via monthly subscription. This model not only generates recurring revenue but also connects with other businesses such as insurance and digital services.

Market reaction

Despite beating consensus estimates, the market reaction was negative. The after-hours decline reflects concerns about the company’s deteriorating fundamentals compared to previous periods, as well as broader skepticism about its ability to execute on long-term growth narratives.

Tesla shares are already down करीब 20% from their December highs, underscoring investor caution as the company navigates a more challenging operating environment.

Wall Street Hits New Records After Ceasefire Extension Between United States and Iran

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, lifted by the extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, while investors also focused on the ongoing first-quarter earnings season.

The US military may be ending the fight in Iran soon, and investors are hopeful.

In this context, major New York indices closed with strong gains and hit fresh all-time highs, despite a backdrop still shaped by geopolitical uncertainty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.69% to 49,490.77 points, the S&P 500 gained 1.03% to 7,137.12, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.64% to 24,657.57.

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Middle East ceasefire boosts sentiment

The day’s momentum was driven by Donald Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran for two more weeks, following the collapse of recent peace talks.

The announcement came after reports that Vice President J. D. Vance canceled a planned trip to Pakistan and that Iran had opted out of further negotiations.

Still, Trump left the door open for renewed dialogue, saying talks could resume in the coming days—helping support investor optimism.

However, officials in Tehran have maintained a firm stance, and there has been no official confirmation of a new round of negotiations, leaving tensions in the region unresolved.

Oil surge revives inflation concerns

At the same time, crude prices moved higher again. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel, driven by the Middle East conflict.

The rebound in oil has reignited concerns in markets, as it could fuel global inflation, weigh on economic growth, and complicate central banks’ rate outlook.

Strong retail sales in the U.S.

On the macro front, U.S. retail sales surprised to the upside. In March, the indicator rose 1.7%, marking the largest increase in a year.

Much of the gain was driven by a 15.5% jump in fuel spending amid higher energy prices. Excluding that category, sales rose a more modest 0.6%.

Economists caution, however, that part of this strength may be temporary, supported by tax refunds and a pull-forward in consumer spending.

Mixed corporate earnings

On the corporate side, earnings season brought mixed reactions:

United Airlines fell 5.5% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance.
GE Vernova surged more than 13.5% after raising its revenue outlook.
AT&T slipped 0.4% despite adding more subscribers than expected.
Boeing gained 5.5% after reporting a smaller-than-expected loss.
Tesla traded slightly higher ahead of its earnings release.

Markets between geopolitics and fundamentals

After recovering pre-conflict levels, markets appear to be pricing in a less adverse scenario in the Middle East.

Still, analysts warn that volatility is likely to persist, driven by the evolution of negotiations, oil price dynamics, and the trajectory of global inflation.

For now, investors are betting that the worst of the conflict may be over—but uncertainty remains a key factor shaping market direction.

UK Inflation Rises to 3.3%, Reaching Highest Level of 2026

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Rising energy costs following the conflict in the Middle East pushed prices higher in March, complicating the outlook for the Bank of England, which now faces a dilemma between keeping rates elevated or supporting an economy showing signs of slowing.

Inflation in the United Kingdom accelerated again in March, reaching its highest level so far in 2026, driven mainly by a sharp increase in fuel prices after the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.3% year-over-year—up 0.3 percentage points from February and in line with market expectations. The data highlights how the conflict in a key oil-producing region is once again feeding into developed economies through higher energy and logistics costs.

Fuel drives the increase

ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner noted that the rebound was largely due to rising fuel prices, which recorded their biggest increase in more than three years.

He also pointed to higher input costs for businesses and rising factory gate prices, amid more expensive crude oil and gasoline. This was compounded by increases in food prices and airfares.

Transport takes the biggest hit

The most visible impact was in the transport sector, where prices rose 4.7% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February—the highest rate since December 2022.

Within that category, motor fuel prices climbed 4.9% in March, reversing a 4.6% decline in February and marking the largest increase since January 2023.

Housing and household services prices rose 4.3%, up slightly from the previous month, driven in part by higher heating oil costs. Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 3.7%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points.

The only partial relief came from clothing and footwear, where prices fell 0.8%, compared with a 0.9% increase in February.

Core inflation shows slight easing

Core inflation—which excludes energy and fresh food—came in at 3.1%, down slightly from the previous reading. While this suggests some moderation, it remains elevated and above the official target.

The latest inflation data comes ahead of the Bank of England’s next policy meeting on April 30. The central bank faces a complex scenario: maintain high rates to contain inflation or begin easing policy to avoid a deeper economic slowdown.

Analysts at ING noted that it is still too early to assess how long the new inflationary wave driven by the energy shock will last. In their view, as long as inflation does not clearly exceed 4%, the Bank of England may opt to keep rates unchanged this year.

Five Signals from Kevin Warsh—and What They Could Mean for Rates

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Kevin Warsh, nominee of Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, avoided committing to an immediate rate cut, pledged internal reforms, and suggested revisiting how inflation is measured—as well as assessing the impact of artificial intelligence on employment.

Donald Trump is trying to remove Lisa Cook from the central bank.

Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee in a hearing marked by political tension and key economic signals. Over more than two hours, he stopped short of endorsing Trump’s push for urgent rate cuts, but outlined how he might steer the world’s most influential central bank if confirmed.

1. No promises on rate cuts

One of the main focal points was the relationship between the Fed and the White House. Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates, arguing that borrowing costs remain too high. Warsh stressed that the president never asked him to pre-commit to monetary decisions.

“The president has never asked me to predetermine or fix any interest rate—and I would not agree to do so,” he said, signaling institutional independence—one of the most sensitive issues for financial markets.

2. Political pressure stays in the background

Pressed by Senator Elizabeth Warren to acknowledge the outcome of the 2020 election, Warsh avoided a direct answer, noting instead that Congress had certified the result. He reiterated that politics should remain separate from monetary policy, and vice versa.

3. Internal reforms at the Fed

Warsh hinted at a reform agenda within the Federal Reserve. Among potential changes, he raised the possibility of revisiting the number of monetary policy meetings, currently set at eight per year. While the law requires at least four, he suggested that number alone would be insufficient.

He also questioned whether to continue holding press conferences after every meeting—a practice introduced under current Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2018. “Seeking truth is more important than repetition,” he said, referring to the frequency of official communication.

4. Rethinking inflation metrics

Warsh emphasized improving how core inflation is measured. He proposed a “data project” involving both public and private sectors to better capture underlying price trends, potentially using methodologies such as trimmed-mean indicators that exclude extreme price swings.

5. AI, productivity, and uncertainty

Another key theme was the economic impact of artificial intelligence. While some in Trump’s circle argue that AI-driven productivity gains could help lower inflation and support rate cuts, Warsh struck a more cautious tone.

“I’m more confident about improvements in output than about when those effects will reach the labor market,” he said—suggesting that employment trends will remain central in future rate decisions.

What this means for rates

Markets closely followed the hearing, as Warsh’s potential appointment could shift the Fed’s policy stance. The key takeaway for investors: he did not promise immediate rate cuts, but signaled openness to a different Fed—one that could rethink communication, internal operations, and inflation analysis.

In practice, this points to a more data-dependent approach. Rate cuts are possible, but not guaranteed—and likely contingent on clearer evidence of sustained disinflation and labor market trends.

Wall Street Erased Early Gains and Closed Lower

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Contradictory signals surrounding the ceasefire between the United States and Iran weighed on financial markets, as investors also looked ahead to a key week of corporate earnings releases.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

Stocks on Wall Street erased early gains and closed lower on Tuesday, April 21, as a crucial confirmation hearing took place in the U.S. Congress for Kevin Warsh, the nominee to lead the Federal Reserve. Investors also continued to grapple with uncertainty surrounding potential peace talks in the Middle East.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite each fell by 0.6%.

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Uncertain U.S.–Iran talks

The ceasefire is set to expire at an unspecified date later this week, though it remains unclear whether both sides will agree to extend it. At the same time, mixed signals from Washington and Tehran have fueled doubts about the status of negotiations.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump told CNBC that Iran “had no choice but to send representatives to the talks” and that he believed a “great deal” would be reached. He added that he did not want to extend the two-week ceasefire once it expires and warned that the U.S. was “ready to bomb Iran” if no agreement is achieved.

The president also said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports had been a “complete success” and claimed Washington had “fully cooperated” with Iran. Oil prices fluctuated during the session, remaining above pre-war levels, while the head of the International Energy Agency warned that the conflict is driving what could become the worst energy crisis in history.

Warsh in focus

Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appeared before the U.S. Senate for his confirmation hearing. His remarks offered insight into his views on central bank independence—a topic that has gained prominence following public tensions between Trump and current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Warsh stated that, if confirmed, he would ensure the Fed’s actions remain “strictly independent.” He later added that the central bank is still dealing with the consequences of policy mistakes made in 2021 and 2022, and argued that fundamental reforms and a significant shift in monetary management are needed.

Markets remain cautious

As traders scrambled to keep pace with rapidly evolving developments around the Iran conflict, they also prepared for a wave of key corporate earnings this week.

Among notable movers, UnitedHealth Group rose 7%, leading gains in both the S&P 500 and the Dow. The managed care company delivered what Mizuho described as “possibly” its best quarterly report in years.

3M fell 2% despite beating quarterly earnings estimates and improving its adjusted operating performance. Meanwhile, Apple declined 2.5% after drawing attention with news that Tim Cook would transition to executive chairman, with John Ternus set to become the next CEO.

[[AAPL/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin Falls Below $76,000 Amid Uncertainty Over United States–Iran Negotiations

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market closed Tuesday in negative territory, despite expectations that Iran and the United States could reach a peace agreement.

Bitcoin holds steady thanks to strong ETF inflows.

Bitcoin slipped 0.5%, breaking below the $76,000 level, while Ethereum also edged lower, holding near $2,300.

The broader altcoin market followed the downward trend. XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano posted losses similar to Bitcoin’s. Hyperliquid led declines with a drop of around 4%, while Monero stood out on the upside, gaining roughly 8%.

In the investment products segment, spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their streak to five consecutive days of net inflows. On Monday alone, they attracted $238.4 million, bringing the total for the run to nearly $1.5 billion. ETFs tied to Ethereum and Solana also continued to see positive flows.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Ceasefire extension in focus

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he would extend the ceasefire with Iran until “they present a unified proposal” for an agreement. He did not provide a specific timeline, though he confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked.

Over the weekend, a potential trip by Vice President J. D. Vance to Islamabad was considered to resume negotiations with Iran. Authorities in Tehran neither confirmed nor denied a return to Pakistan’s capital. However, despite Trump’s announcement, the trip now appears to be canceled, according to a Washington official.

Despite the uncertain backdrop, Trump emphasized the “strong position” of the United States. “We’re going to make a great deal. I think they have no choice,” he said.

Earlier in the day, however, Trump appeared to contradict himself when asked whether he would extend the ceasefire. “I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time,” he said.

Meanwhile, Iranian commander Ali Abdollahi, head of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, warned that Iran is prepared to respond forcefully to any violation of the truce, according to Tasnim news agency.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also accused the White House of sending “unconstructive and contradictory signals.” Trump’s remarks—including his warning that the U.S. would not hesitate to strike Iran again if talks fail—were seen as part of that mixed messaging.

From a technical perspective, data from Bloomberg show that funding rates for perpetual futures have remained in negative territory for 46 consecutive days—the longest streak since the collapse of FTX in late 2022—highlighting a broadly bearish positioning in the derivatives market.

High Inflation Undermines Trust In Monetary Independence, Says Kevin Warsh

Posted on April 21, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, placed responsibility on the central bank itself for growing doubts about its independence—criticisms that have also come from the White House. He is set to testify before the U.S. Senate this Tuesday.

Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, where he is expected to state that he is “committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent,” according to prepared remarks released Monday in the U.S. press.

In his prepared remarks, he also noted: “I am equally committed to working with the Administration and Congress on non-monetary matters that fall within the Federal Reserve’s responsibilities.”

At another point, Warsh argued that the Fed’s independence “reaches its highest level in the operational execution of monetary policy.” However, he added that “this degree of independence does not extend to the full range of responsibilities assigned by Congress.”

He further stated that U.S. monetary policymakers are not entitled to the same “special deference” in their management of public funds, bank regulation and supervision, or in areas affecting international finance.

Inflation backlash

Warsh also argued that the Fed’s independence is under strain because it has failed to fully deliver on its congressional mandate of price stability.

“Low inflation is the Fed’s armor,” he said. “Therefore, when inflation surges—as it has in recent years—it causes serious harm to our citizens, who may also lose faith in our system of economic governance, raising doubts about whether monetary independence is truly as beneficial as claimed.”

“Inflation is a choice, and the Fed must take responsibility for it,” Warsh added, reiterating his criticism of policymakers for attributing the post-pandemic inflation spike to supply chain disruptions.

A push for reform?

Warsh, who has been nominated to replace Jerome Powell, also pledged to pursue reforms within the central bank. He warned that large institutions’ tendency to cling to the status quo can be “harmful” in a rapidly changing world.

“At a moment that will rank among the most consequential in our nation’s history, I believe a reform-oriented Federal Reserve can make a real difference for the American people,” he said.

Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, devoted much of his remarks to reiterating long-standing criticisms of the central bank since his departure.

He also argued that the Fed should “stay in its lane” rather than venture into fiscal or social policy, referencing past research into issues such as the economic impact of climate change and the pursuit of “inclusive” full employment.

Farewell to its CEO: Apple’s performance during Tim Cook’s tenure

Posted on April 21, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

When Tim Cook took the helm of Apple in 2011, following the departure of Steve Jobs, the company had a market capitalization of roughly $350 billion.

Cook’s tenure at Apple will likely be remembered as one of the most successful in recent corporate history. Over nearly 15 years as CEO, the company not only consolidated its global leadership but also achieved levels of financial growth and value creation that are difficult to match.

From that initial valuation, Apple’s market cap surged to around $4 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world. This leap reflects not only business expansion, but also sustained investor confidence in the company’s model.

Apple’s business takes off

Revenue growth has been equally striking. Annual sales rose from about $108 billion in 2011 to more than $416 billion in 2025—nearly quadrupling during Cook’s leadership.

[[AAPL/USD-graph]]

This expansion was driven primarily by the iPhone, but also by diversification into digital services and new devices.

Another key metric is stock performance. Apple shares climbed nearly 1,900% since Cook became CEO, significantly outperforming the broader market. This performance turned the company into one of Wall Street’s most profitable bets over the past decade and a half.

Growth and consolidation

Operationally, Apple also expanded its ecosystem of products and users. Under Cook’s leadership, the company launched successful categories such as the Apple Watch and AirPods, while strengthening its services business, including payments, music, and cloud storage.

This strategy helped reduce reliance on the iPhone and generated recurring revenue streams.

At the same time, Apple’s installed base grew exponentially, reaching billions of active devices worldwide. This integrated ecosystem became one of the company’s strongest competitive advantages, fostering customer loyalty and increasing spending per user.

Cook’s financial legacy also includes a strong shareholder return policy. The company allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to dividends and share buybacks, further reinforcing its appeal to investors.

Wall Street Ends Lower Amid Uncertainty Over Iran Peace Talks

Posted on April 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

In this context, Wall Street’s main indexes closed with moderate losses: the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.01% to 49,442.69 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 7,110.22; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.26% to 24,404.39.

Mixed headlines and geopolitical noise

Investors navigated a session marked by conflicting signals over the future of negotiations between the United States and Iran.

While Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance would travel to Pakistan to resume talks, other reports pointed to delays in the agenda.

From Tehran, the tone hardened: Iranian officials rejected a new round of negotiations, citing “excessive demands” and constant shifts in Washington’s position.

However, reports from The New York Times suggested that an Iranian delegation was still considering attending talks in Pakistan, keeping the door open for a potential agreement.

At the same time, Trump warned that extending the current two-week ceasefire is “highly unlikely” if no deal is reached by Wednesday night (Washington time), adding further pressure to the situation.

Meanwhile, energy markets reacted sharply:

- Brent crude rose 5.7% to $95.52
- WTI crude climbed 5.9% to $87.42

The Fed enters the spotlight

Amid this backdrop, monetary policy added another layer of uncertainty. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve.Warsh, who served at the Fed from 2006 to 2011, played a key role during the global financial crisis. His nomination helped ease some concerns about central bank independence, but also triggered market reactions.Analysts noted that his historically hawkish stance weighed on equities and supported the US dollar. The most notable move was seen in precious metals, which pulled back sharply following recent gains in gold and silver.

Markets still strong, but warning signs emerge

Despite the pullback, equities remain near recent highs after a strong rally. The S&P 500 has posted three consecutive weeks of gains, rising დაახლოებით 11.9% and returning to record levels.

[[SPX-graph]]

This rapid move pushed the index from oversold to overbought territory in a short period, helping explain the current cautious tone.

At the same time, earnings season is gaining momentum. While the Middle East conflict remains the primary driver, first-quarter corporate results are increasingly shaping market direction.

“This is a key week for earnings. Unless there’s a geopolitical shock, the focus will be on results and, above all, forward guidance,” market strategists said.

Among the major companies set to report are Tesla, Intel, American Express, Boeing, and 3M.

Kevin Warsh Faces First Congressional Test as Trump’s Fed Pick

Posted on April 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Kevin Warsh, nominated to succeed Jerome Powell, is set to face lawmakers in his first major test as a potential head of the Federal Reserve.

Warsh will appear this Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee, where legislators are expected to press him on his views on monetary policy and his calls for a fundamental shift in the Fed’s direction. The hearing comes at a critical moment, with Powell’s term as chair set to end on May 15.

However, the path to confirmation remains uncertain. Key Republicans have already signaled they may block Warsh’s nomination unless the Donald Trump administration drops an ongoing criminal investigation involving Powell and the central bank—arguing it poses a threat to Fed independence.

Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Charles Schwab, warned that the timeline is tight. He noted that Senator Thom Tillis is refusing to support a confirmation vote until the investigation is resolved, even if the hearing proceeds.

In the meantime, Powell has indicated he would remain in place on an interim basis if the confirmation process is delayed—prompting renewed threats from Trump, who has said he would consider removing him if that scenario unfolds.

A moment for clarification

Warsh’s appearance will also serve as a platform to clarify his evolving policy stance. Previously critical of the Fed’s current leadership, he has called for a “regime change” and described Powell’s tenure as “unsuccessful,” though without fully detailing his proposed alternatives.

Historically known as a hawk focused on inflation control, Warsh shifted his tone throughout 2025, signaling openness to rate cuts. He has argued that productivity gains driven by advances in artificial intelligence could help contain inflationary pressures.

Another key proposal likely to face scrutiny is his call for the Fed to reduce its $6.71 trillion balance sheet—a position shaped by his experience as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis.

These views, along with questions about Trump’s potential influence over his policy approach, are expected to be central to the hearing, which will be chaired by Senator Tim Scott, a Republican who has expressed support for Warsh despite divisions within the party over the nomination process.