Mexican Peso Weakens Against the Dollar After Fed Policy Announcement

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso, which had already been declining since the open following stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data, extended its losses in line with its regional peers.

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar in midweek trading. The local currency, already under pressure from the start of the session, deepened its losses alongside other regional currencies as markets reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest communication.

The exchange rate closed the session at 17.8265 per dollar. Compared to 17.6645 in the previous session, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), this represented a loss of 16.20 centavos, or 0.92%.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.8774 and a low of 17.6019 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.74% to 100.30 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The Fed announcement

In line with expectations, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The central bank projected higher inflation and a stable unemployment rate, while maintaining its outlook for just one rate cut in 2026.

Market expectations have remained anchored since last week at a single 25-basis-point cut in the December 9 meeting, so the announcement was largely anticipated, said Jorge Adrián Calderón, a fixed income and interest rate derivatives trader.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain. He added that economic activity continues to expand solidly, although job creation has been modest.

A stronger dollar

The dollar also strengthened after Powell signaled that a rate hike cannot be ruled out, even if it is not the base case. The currency had already been gaining since the open following stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data and developments related to Iran.

The peso initially started the session on a positive note, but the exchange rate came under pressure as markets reacted to geopolitical headlines, particularly Iran’s statement identifying energy infrastructure as potential targets.

Earlier in the day, data showed that U.S. producer prices rose well above expectations in February, increasing 0.7% compared to forecasts of 0.3%, not yet reflecting the surge in oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict.

Gold: More Central Banks Buying, but in Smaller Amounts

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Global central bank statistics and the broader gold market point to a slight slowdown in buying momentum at the start of the year, although it is worth noting that the base of demand continues to broaden.

Investor repositioning amid the Middle East conflict and the surge in oil and gas prices remains unclear. Still, gold remains firmly on the radar. It is also true that since the launch of Operation “Epic Fury” by the United States and Israel against Iran, gold prices initially reacted sharply before easing alongside optimistic statements from President Donald Trump. After hovering around $5,000 per ounce, prices have recently slipped to just above $4,800. Several factors may explain this softness, including central bank responses to the evolving global landscape and some degree of demand fatigue after years of heavy accumulation.

That said, the year began with solid demand from retail investors, ETFs, and central banks. The latest available data show that central banks continued to buy gold in January, albeit at a slower pace, while the pool of buyers expanded. According to the World Gold Council, Bank Negara Malaysia made its first net gold purchase since 2018 (3 tons), while the Bank of Korea is considering resuming gold investments for the first time since 2013. Analysts note that geopolitical uncertainty remains a persistent driver of central bank demand, even if January’s heightened volatility proved an exception.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

What happened in January?

Central banks purchased a net 5 tons, well below last year’s monthly average of 27 tons.
Buying was led by central banks in Central and East Asia, though Eastern European institutions also increased reserves. Notably, Central Asia saw activity on both sides: Uzbekistan was among the largest buyers (9 tons), while Kazakhstan was a net seller (1 ton). Russia was the largest seller, offloading 9 tons.
The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) sold 2 tons of gold, but this decline corresponds to an equivalent increase in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) gold reserves, as Bulgaria joins the European Union as its 21st member.
The early-year slowdown in central bank gold purchases—compared to the 27-ton monthly average over the past 12 months—may be linked to price volatility and seasonal factors such as the holiday period, which could have given some central bankers pause. Nevertheless, analysts believe that persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain gold accumulation through 2026 and beyond.

It is worth recalling that gold prices reached highs above $5,300 in January. Even so, central bank buying momentum remained resilient despite elevated prices.

Key reported activity in January:

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan purchased 9 tons, extending its buying streak since October. This brought its total gold reserves to 399 tons. The growth has been remarkable, rising from 57% of total reserves in 2020 to 86% in January 2026.

Bank Negara Malaysia emerged as a new buyer, adding 3 tons—its first increase since 2018—bringing total reserves to 42 tons, or 5% of its total reserves.

Other buyers included the Czech Republic (2 tons), Indonesia (2 tons), and China and Serbia (1 ton each).

China’s 15 consecutive months of gold purchases have lifted gold holdings to nearly 10% of its total reserves.

Wall Street Slides Sharply on Weak Inflation Data and Rising Oil Prices

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Energy supply concerns continue to keep crude prices elevated. As expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged and projected only one rate cut this year.

A bear market is following the release of a report.

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, March 18, after stronger-than-expected producer inflation data dampened investor sentiment, already weighed down by the economic impact of rising oil prices and the Fed’s rate decision.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6% to 46,224.68 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 6,625.38; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.5% to 22,152.42.

[[SPX-graph]]

Fed holds rates steady

As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled just one rate cut this year. The central bank noted that the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains “uncertain.”

The Fed’s latest decision comes at a time when inflation in the United States remains well above target and the labor market is showing mixed signals. The war with Iran has further complicated the outlook for policymakers, with Brent crude—the global oil benchmark—surging nearly 50% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran.

Against this backdrop, U.S. gasoline prices have climbed to their highest levels since October 2023.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range for a second consecutive meeting, after cutting rates by a total of 75 basis points late last year.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have been modest, and the unemployment rate has changed little in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” the FOMC said in a statement. “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

Producer inflation comes in above expectations

Before the market open, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% month-over-month in February, while the annual rate reached 3.4%, driven primarily by higher service costs. The February increase exceeded both January’s 0.5% gain and market expectations of a 0.3% rise.

Meanwhile, core PPI increased 0.5% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, also coming in above consensus estimates.

These figures follow earlier readings that were broadly in line with expectations for consumer and producer prices in January and February. However, the latest data suggest that inflation was already a persistent issue before the sharp rise in oil prices in March due to the war with Iran.

“The PPI confirms what’s becoming clear: the war is causing inflation to spread through the economy, and it won’t be temporary. It will take time to offset the cost pressures stemming from higher oil prices,” said Ross Gerber, president and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Slide Up to 5.3% After Fed Rate Decision

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Bitcoin Falls Below $72,000 While Ethereum Drops Under $2,200.

The cryptocurrency market is posting sharp losses this Wednesday amid global caution after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged and projected higher inflation in the coming months, accelerating Wall Street’s decline.

In this context, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.9% over the past 24 hours to $71,137, according to Binance, while Ethereum (ETH) is shedding 5.3% to trade at $2,199. Altcoins are mostly lower, with losses of up to 5%, led by Solana (-5%) and Dogecoin (-5%).

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range. The surprise came from updated economic projections, particularly higher expected inflation for 2026, driven by volatility in global oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin is showing a modest pullback on the day, reflecting a more defensive market stance. Even so, the asset continues to consolidate within a key technical range between $70,000 and $76,000. Immediate resistance aligns with the recent high near $76,000; a daily close above this level could open the door to a move toward $78,000.

Institutional flows remain strong

Despite the short-term correction, institutional interest remains firm. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $199.4 million in the latest session, marking seven consecutive days of gains and totaling nearly $1.2 billion over that period.

Similarly, Ethereum ETFs added $138.3 million, while products tied to Solana and XRP also saw inflows, albeit on a smaller scale.

According to analysts, these flows reflect structural demand driven by long-term investors. “These are not tactical trades, but strategic allocations by players with extended investment horizons,” market participants note.

This support has helped Bitcoin maintain a relatively stable range, even after a roughly 15% rally and amid a global backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions.

Regulatory shift and new opportunities

On the regulatory front, the United States delivered a notable signal: the SEC and CFTC issued new guidance stating that most cryptocurrencies should not be classified as securities.

This marks a shift from the regulators’ previous stance and could reduce uncertainty that had been holding back some institutional investors. For the market, the new framework opens the door to broader adoption and the development of new financial instruments, including an expansion of crypto ETFs.

Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies are experiencing a pause in prices, but underlying fundamentals continue to show growing support from institutional capital.

Mexican Peso Gains Against the Dollar as Risk Aversion Eases

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso strengthened modestly against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, supported by a lack of new developments in the Iran conflict, as markets positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

The exchange rate closed at 17.6645 pesos per dollar, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). Compared to the previous LSEG reference of 17.6736 (in the absence of an official fixing due to a holiday), the currency posted a marginal gain of 0.05%, less than one cent.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.7394 at the high and 17.6116 at the low. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.25% to 99.56.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Lower risk aversion supports EM currencies

The absence of further geopolitical escalation allowed investors to rotate into higher-beta assets, putting mild pressure on the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

Market participants are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement due Wednesday. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, attention will center on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and any references to geopolitical risks.

If the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, the peso could test the 17.73 resistance level seen earlier in the session. However, if de-escalation in the Middle East persists, the currency may attempt to consolidate within the 17.60–17.65 range.

Australia Hikes Rates Amid War Impact, Adding Pressure on Central Banks

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Australia’s central bank warned that “the conflict in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in fuel prices,” setting the tone for a pivotal week in global monetary policy as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England prepare to announce their decisions.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off the week on Tuesday by raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%. The move reversed two of the three rate cuts delivered last year and pushed borrowing costs to their highest level in ten months, reflecting the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict.

The central bank justified the decision as necessary to contain inflationary pressures, which remain above its 2%–3% target range, in the context of a labor market that policymakers still view as tight.

However, the decision revealed a deeply divided board, passing by a narrow 5–4 vote — the closest split since the RBA began publishing individual voting outcomes.

In its statement, the board emphasized that “the conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in fuel prices” and warned that, if sustained, this trend “will contribute to inflation.”

It also noted that short-term inflation expectations are already rising and that “risks have tilted further to the upside.”

A pivotal week for central banks

The RBA’s decision marks the starting point of a critical week for global central banks, as escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices test policymakers worldwide.

The Federal Reserve began its policy meeting on Tuesday, with its decision due on Wednesday. While markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged this month, attention will focus on updated inflation projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to announce their decisions on Thursday. In both cases, policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, despite mounting inflation risks tied to energy prices.

Wall Street Loses Upward Momentum as Iran War Escalates

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. equities moved higher on Tuesday, March 17, but lost momentum from earlier session highs as oil prices remained elevated following the joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Fighting in Iran has kept gas prices elevated and shipments limited.

At the same time, NATO declined to support President Donald Trump’s stance on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10% to 46,993.87, the S&P 500 gained 0.25% to 6,716.19, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.47% to 22,479.

[[SPX-graph]]

Volatility remains contained, but risks are building

Major indexes had posted strong gains on Monday, driven by a rebound in technology stocks and a decline in oil prices. While equities continued to rise at Tuesday’s open, they gradually pared gains as crude prices resumed their upward trend.

“The rise in both oil and equities earlier in the session may seem contradictory, but following reports that Israel killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani, there appears to be some short-term optimism,” said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management.

“However, this remains a very fragile market. Any negative developments related to oil trade or the duration of the conflict could quickly trigger a pullback and a spike in the VIX,” he added.

Iran loses key senior figures

Israel reported that Larijani was killed in an airstrike on Monday, according to The Wall Street Journal. Other reports suggested that Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Basij paramilitary force, may also have died, though there has been no official confirmation from Iran.

[[USOIL-graph]]

As fighting continues, the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows — remains largely restricted. Iran stated that the passage is open to all vessels except those linked to the United States and its allies.

Trump criticizes NATO over Hormuz stance

Trump criticized NATO members for refusing to back his request to help reopen the strait. “We no longer need or want NATO’s assistance; we never did,” he wrote on social media.

While the United Kingdom and France expressed willingness to discuss potential responses, other allies — including Germany and Japan — rejected the request. Trump had previously suggested the U.S. could act unilaterally, although he noted that “many countries” were willing to cooperate.

Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the start of the strikes in late February. The prospect of a prolonged conflict in Iran is increasing the risk of a global energy crisis, with direct implications for inflation.

Trump seeks to delay meeting with Xi

Separately, Trump requested to postpone a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, just days after warning he would do so if China did not intervene to help reopen the strait.

Over the weekend, Trump urged Beijing to deploy its navy to secure the shipping route. However, China — the largest buyer of Iranian oil — has little incentive to align with Washington.

In fact, Tehran has allowed Chinese oil tankers to transit the strait while warning of potential attacks on vessels linked to the U.S. or its allies.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Recovery as Focus Shifts to the Fed

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Institutional demand has shown steady growth in recent days, while the main focus for markets this week will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday.

Bitcoin's upward momentum may expire soon. — Bitcoin’s upward momentum may expire soon.

Although the cryptocurrency market has posted slight declines in the past few hours, it has maintained a broader upward trend in recent days. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $73,700 after briefly touching $76,000 early Tuesday — its highest level since February 4. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is up more than 1.8%, holding above the $2,300 mark.

Altcoins are trading mixed. XRP has gained more than 1%, overtaking Binance Coin (BNB) as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, while BNB is down 2.3%. Tron (TRX) leads gains among major tokens, rising 1.4%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

The crypto market has shown notable resilience despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices close to $100 per barrel.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. While the decision itself is largely priced in, investors will closely monitor the tone of the statement for any signs of renewed global inflation risks.

ETF demand returns

Institutional demand continues to provide support, with spot Bitcoin ETFs extending their streak of net inflows to a sixth consecutive day. U.S.-listed funds recorded approximately $202 million in inflows on Monday, reinforcing investor appetite even amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to Binance Research, “markets are watching for signs of stabilization as spot BTC ETFs return to net inflows, while the peak of the U.S. tax refund season in the coming weeks could provide additional liquidity to risk assets.”

China: Industrial Output and Consumption Rebound; War Raises Concerns

Posted on March 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

China’s economy started 2026 on stronger footing than expected. Data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed an acceleration in industrial production and a rebound in consumption and investment during the January–February period.

While the figures provide some relief for President Xi Jinping’s government, the ongoing real estate downturn and rising unemployment continue to cloud the broader outlook. Uncertainty stemming from the war in the Middle East is also adding pressure due to China’s heavy dependence on energy imports.

Industrial production rose 6.3% year over year, above the 5.2% recorded in December and the 5% expected by market analysts. It was also the fastest pace of expansion since September of last year. The momentum was partly driven by strong demand linked to artificial intelligence, which has boosted activity across several industries within the technology supply chain.

ING Group chief economist Lynn Song said the data “continue to reflect China’s key strategy of industrial modernization.” High-tech manufacturing expanded 13.1% year over year, with industrial robotics production surging 31.1% at the start of the year. The computer and communications sector (14.2%) and transportation equipment — including rail, maritime and aerospace — (13.7%) also posted solid growth.

Rebound in consumption and investment

Retail sales — a key gauge of domestic consumption — increased 2.8% year over year, accelerating sharply from December’s weak 0.9% reading and surpassing the 2.5% expected by analysts. It marked the strongest rise since October. Part of the increase was linked to the Lunar New Year holiday, which this year lasted longer than usual and boosted tourism spending by nearly 19% compared with the same period last year.

Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment — which includes property and infrastructure — also surprised to the upside, rising 1.8% in the first two months of the year. Economists had expected a contraction of 2.1% following the 3.8% decline recorded in 2025, the first drop in nearly three decades.

Infrastructure investment led the recovery with an 11.4% increase, supported by government policies including a new bank financing instrument aimed at funding strategic projects.

Middle East tensions add uncertainty

Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS, acknowledged during a press conference that the war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global oil markets. However, he said China’s energy supply structure should help cushion the economy against external shocks. Even so, he warned that the conflict’s impact on domestic prices will require closer monitoring in the coming months.

Zichun Huang, an analyst at Capital Economics, noted that “while China is better positioned than most economies to cope with the consequences of the war with Iran, the annual budget presented at the National People’s Congress suggests fiscal policy will provide less support to the economy in 2026 than in 2025, which will likely weigh on growth toward the end of the year.”

Argentina Blocks Access to Polymarket Nationwide

Posted on March 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The ruling stems from a complaint filed by the Buenos Aires City Lottery (LOTBA), which alleged that the platform was operating as a disguised online betting system and allowed minors to participate.

A Buenos Aires court ordered the nationwide blocking of access to Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform. The decision followed an investigation triggered by a complaint from the Buenos Aires City Lottery (LOTBA), which found that the site was effectively operating as an unauthorized online gambling service. Authorities also instructed Google and Apple to restrict access to the platform’s mobile applications.

The case began after LOTBA — the entity responsible for regulating gambling activities in the city — reported that Polymarket was operating without authorization.

The investigation, which included technical support from the Judicial Investigations Unit (CIJ) of the Buenos Aires City Public Prosecutor’s Office, determined that the platform functioned as a concealed betting system under the label of “prediction markets.”

According to investigators, the site allowed transactions using cryptocurrencies and credit cards, did not require identity or age verification, and enabled users to create accounts within minutes, significantly increasing the risks for users.

Argentina blocks Polymarket and removes apps from Google and Apple

Authorities concluded that these irregularities made it possible for anyone — including children and teenagers — to place bets without oversight. Based on the evidence gathered by prosecutors, the court led by Judge Susana Parada ordered internet providers to block access to the platform and all related domains “throughout the entire territory of the Argentine Republic.”

The order applies nationwide. To implement the measure, Argentina’s communications regulator ENACOM was instructed to coordinate with internet service providers to enforce the block.

The ruling also instructs technology companies Google and Apple to remove and restrict access to Polymarket’s mobile applications on Android and iOS devices across the country. The measure also applies to users already registered in Argentina.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are digital platforms that allow users to wager real money on the outcome of various events — ranging from elections and sporting events to geopolitical developments and other public-interest topics.

In practice, these platforms present themselves as tools for collective forecasting or data-driven analysis. However, their mechanics closely resemble those of traditional betting platforms: money is at stake, outcomes are uncertain, and participants face the possibility of gains or losses.

In a recent controversy, following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. authorities, Polymarket declined to pay out bets placed on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela. The platform argued that the operation to extract the former leader did not meet its criteria for an “invasion.”