BYD Surpasses Tesla to Become the World’s Leading EV Producer

Posted on January 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD confirmed it met its full-year sales target for 2025, marking a major milestone that positions the company as the new global leader in the EV industry—surpassing Tesla, led by Elon Musk.

Headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD reported total vehicle sales of 4.6 million units in 2025, representing growth of nearly 8% year over year and matching the target the company had set for the full year.

The result is particularly significant given that 2.26 million of those vehicles were fully electric—well above Tesla’s 1.64 million EV deliveries over the same period. When plug-in hybrids are included, BYD further cements its position as one of the fastest-growing automakers in the clean-energy segment.

Leadership Comes with Challenges

Despite the milestone, BYD’s ascent has not been without headwinds. The company revised its original sales targets lower earlier in the year, reflecting tougher conditions in China’s auto market, where domestic demand has cooled and competition has intensified.

Rivals such as Geely and Xiaomi have gained traction with new models, putting pressure on BYD’s domestic growth. BYD’s founder and CEO, Wang Chuanfu, has acknowledged that the company’s technological edge—once a key differentiator—is increasingly challenged in this competitive environment.

To address these pressures, BYD has emphasized its scale in research and development. The company employs more than 120,000 engineers, who are working on new innovations aimed at restoring and expanding its technical advantages.

Global Expansion and Ambitious Targets

A key bright spot for BYD in 2025 was its performance abroad. Overseas deliveries exceeded 1 million vehicles, providing a strong boost to the company’s global expansion strategy.

Looking ahead, BYD has outlined ambitious goals for 2026, targeting exports of 1.5 to 1.6 million vehicles, with a focus on expanding its footprint across Europe, Latin America, and other international markets.

Still, risks remain. China has begun to scale back incentives that previously supported EV purchases, potentially dampening domestic demand. At the same time, external trade barriers—including tariffs in Europe and regulatory restrictions in the United States—add complexity to BYD’s international ambitions.

Even so, industry analysts expect BYD to extend its lead in 2026, with total vehicle sales potentially surpassing 5 million units, further widening the gap with Tesla as the global EV market becomes increasingly competitive.

Wall Street Opens 2026 Flat and European Markets Reach Records

Posted on January 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Technology stocks tied to artificial intelligence are among the most actively traded names ahead of the open, signaling renewed optimism around AI.

The European Union negotiates with the U.S .

A fresh wave of enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is lifting global equity markets at the start of 2026. Major U.S. indexes are trading mixed on Friday, while leading stock markets in the United Kingdom and across Europe are pushing to new record highs.

In early trading, the S&P 500 was down 0.03%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, falling 0.33%.

Among the strongest performers were Micron Technology (+7.68%), Intel (+5.8%), and Lam Research (+6.2%). On the downside, shares of Intuit (-4.6%), ServiceNow (-4.45%), and Fair Isaac (-4.04%) posted the steepest declines.

The most actively traded stocks are concentrated in the AI-linked technology space. NVIDIA rose 2.1%, while Intel, Tesla (-0.89%), Micron, and Amazon (-1.53%) also saw heavy volume.

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With no major corporate earnings releases on the calendar, investor attention turned to U.S. manufacturing data. The latest ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 in December, in line with expectations but slightly below November’s reading.

Global Markets Set New Records

Outside the United States, equity markets extended gains. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.69% to a new all-time high, heading for its third consecutive weekly gain. Germany’s DAX edged down 0.05% after the PMI release, while France’s CAC 40 added 0.23%.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.37%, breaking above the symbolic 10,000-point level for the first time, marking a strong start to 2026 for British equities.

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Asian markets also opened the year on a bullish note. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.76%, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high. Markets in Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore hit record levels as well, while exchanges in Japan and mainland China remained closed for holidays.

Overall, while Wall Street lacks clear direction at the start of the year, global equity markets are entering 2026 with strong momentum—once again led by optimism around artificial intelligence.

The Buffett Indicator Reaches Its Highest Level Since 1970

Posted on January 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The valuation gauge reaches its highest level on record as Warren Buffett prepares to hand over leadership to his successor.

The founder of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, is approaching a pivotal moment in his career. He is set to step aside as chief executive, passing the role to Greg Abel, amid a market environment that remains notably strong.

That backdrop is reflected in the Buffett Indicator, which has climbed to its highest level since records began in 1970. The surge coincides with the powerful rally driven by artificial intelligence, which has been the dominant force in equity markets throughout 2025.

This milestone caps a historic career that includes Berkshire Hathaway’s transformation into a global conglomerate, landmark acquisitions such as Burlington Northern, a long-standing relationship with Bill Gates, and decades of concise, influential commentary in annual shareholder letters.

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Reflecting on the firm’s culture, Buffett’s son Howard Buffett—a member of the succession line—told Opening Bid Unfiltered: “Berkshire’s culture is quite simple. You do what you say you’re going to do, when you say you’re going to do it. You’re honest about it. You make mistakes and take responsibility for them.”

What the Buffett Indicator Measures—and Why It Matters

The Buffett Indicator compares the Wilshire 5000, a broad measure of the U.S. equity market, with annual U.S. GDP. It gained prominence after a 2001 Fortune article written by Buffett and veteran journalist Carol Loomis.

“The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know,” Buffett wrote at the time. “Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

Today, the indicator sits at around 221.4%, up sharply—about 22% since April 30—according to data from GuruFocus. It has never reached such a high level in the available historical data.

While the surge underscores investor enthusiasm, particularly around AI-driven growth, it also suggests that U.S. equities are trading at historically stretched valuations—raising the risk of a meaningful correction in early 2026.

Industrial Activity in the EU Closes 2025 Lower After Nine-Month Low

Posted on January 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The European Union’s manufacturing sector closed 2025 in contraction, despite a brief improvement in confidence indicators toward year-end.

The downturn was driven mainly by weakening demand, in a year marked by tariff tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump.

According to data from S&P Global, the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in December from 49.6 in November, marking its lowest level since March and remaining firmly below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

Demand for eurozone manufactured goods slowed again, reflected in a sharp decline in new orders, shrinking order backlogs, and continued inventory reductions. Against this backdrop, companies continued to cut jobs, underscoring a lack of confidence in near-term growth. Firms appear neither able nor willing to build momentum for the coming year, opting instead for caution—a stance that continues to weigh on the broader economy.

The manufacturing sector has been in near-continuous recession since mid-2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While 2025 had been expected to mark a turning point, the slowdown eased only modestly and failed to transition into a sustainable growth trajectory.

Regional Performance and the Exception of France

Manufacturing conditions deteriorated in six of the eight major eurozone economies tracked. Germany stood out for the wrong reasons, posting the sharpest worsening in sector conditions since February of last year and the weakest performance among the countries surveyed.

PMI readings below 50 in Italy and Spain signaled renewed pressure in southern Europe, while conditions in Greece improved slightly faster than in November.

The notable exception was France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy. France bucked the regional trend, with its manufacturing PMI reaching a 42-month high, signaling the strongest expansion since June 2022.

Outlook for 2026

Industrial production volumes across the eurozone fell in December after nine consecutive months of growth, driven by a sharper decline in incoming orders. Sales performance also deteriorated for a second straight month, marking the steepest drop since early 2025.

Looking ahead, analysts expect a gradual improvement in 2026, supported by higher defense spending and Germany’s fiscal stimulus package, though risks remain elevated and a sustained recovery is far from guaranteed.

The Economist: Wall Street Is Optimistic About 2026, Despite High Valuations

Posted on January 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The British weekly The Economist points to a broadly constructive outlook for equities in 2026, even as concerns about elevated valuations and a potential global bubble persist.

Wall Street has Overvaluation Worries and Macro Uncertainty Hit Sentiment — Wall Street has Overvaluation Worries.

According to the publication, optimism on Wall Street remains strong. Only about 8% of market participants expect a severe correction in the S&P 500—defined as a drop of more than 30% from current levels—at some point in 2026. This figure is broadly in line with the historical average of around 7%, suggesting that fears of a major crash are not unusually elevated despite lofty prices.

Options markets provide further insight into investor sentiment. Prices of put options, which give holders the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price, embed the market’s perceived probability of a broad sell-off. These signals indicate that, notwithstanding growing discussion of a potential global equity bubble—driven largely by mega-cap technology stocks and enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence—investors appear more concerned about missing another rally than about a sharp market collapse.

Estimates based on current options pricing suggest that the probability implied by the market of the S&P 500 rising 30% is close to 11%. While higher than the likelihood assigned to a major downturn, it is still not compelling enough to fully convince those who argue that equity markets are in bubble territory.

Stocks Remain Expensive, but Expectations Are Tempered

Equity prices in the United States remain near record highs. Analysts at Goldman Sachs note that current valuations are higher than in roughly 90% of observations over the past two decades. In this context, elevated prices are no longer confined to technology stocks alone, but reflect a more generalized valuation backdrop.

Even so, expectations for 2026 appear more moderate. A survey conducted by Bloomberg shows that investors anticipate the S&P 500 will rise about 9% over the course of next year—well below the 23% annualized gains recorded over the past three years. Among forecasts, the most optimistic respondents see upside of around 18%, while the most pessimistic project gains of just 1%.

Taken together, the data suggest that while Wall Street acknowledges stretched valuations, confidence in equities remains intact—driven less by the absence of risk than by the persistent fear of being left behind.

Bitcoin Tops $88,000 While Altcoins Climb as the Year Kicks Off

Posted on January 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Bitcoin ended 2025 with a decline of nearly 6.4%, but succeeded in consolidating a new phase of global adoption.

On the first trading day of 2026, the cryptocurrency market has extended the calm tone that closed out last year. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above the $88,200 level, roughly in line with its average range throughout much of 2025, a year that ended with a modest pullback of close to 6.4%.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last trading at $88,250.55, up 0.9% on the week. Ethereum (ETH) edged higher by 0.2% to $2,986, consolidating a weekly gain of 1.8%.

Altcoins posted broader gains of up to 2.8%, led by the memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE), which climbed to $0.1244. Cardano (ADA) followed with a 1.5% increase to $0.3469, while Tron (TRX) rose 0.5% to $0.2843.

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Elsewhere, Ripple (XRP) advanced 0.1% to $1.86, while Solana (SOL) slipped 0.6% and BNB declined 0.4%, trading at $124.79 and $858.62, respectively. Meanwhile, Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC)—a relatively new token that has climbed to 11th place by market capitalization—fell 1% to $1.03.

Bitcoin’s 2025 Consolidation and Long-Term Outlook

Despite the high volatility that characterized the crypto market throughout 2025, there is broad agreement that the ecosystem—particularly Bitcoin—made meaningful progress in terms of global adoption by governments and corporations.

Following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the United States took the lead in advancing a more favorable regulatory framework for digital assets in 2025. This shift was echoed, to varying degrees, by other major economies, which showed growing interest in the regulation of exchanges and the broader potential of tokens and stablecoins. In Latin America, Brazil and El Salvador stood out for their continued institutional support of the crypto ecosystem.

Looking further ahead, some long-term projections place Bitcoin’s price target as high as $1.42 million by 2035, driven by the assumption that it could capture roughly one-third of the expanding global market for stores of value.

China Imposes Tariffs on Argentine Beef

Posted on January 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The measure will take effect in January 2026 and remain in force for three years. Argentina will be allowed to export up to 511,000 tons per year at the standard 12.5% tariff, while shipments above that threshold will face a significantly higher levy.

Brazil and Uruguay have also been assigned country-specific quotas.

China’s Ministry of Commerce of China announced on Wednesday that it will impose safeguard measures on beef imports beginning January 1, 2026. The policy includes additional tariffs of up to 55% on shipments that exceed country-specific quotas.

The decision follows the conclusion of a safeguard investigation launched on December 27, 2024, into beef imports. According to China’s state news agency Xinhua, the measures will remain in effect for three years, through December 31, 2028, and will be implemented via tariff-rate quotas assigned by country.

Quotas and Tariffs

Under the new framework, Argentina will be granted an annual quota of 511,000 tons eligible for the standard 12.5% import tariff. Any exports exceeding that volume will be subject to the higher 55% tariff.

While the quota broadly matches Argentina’s current export volumes, the regulation effectively caps future growth in shipments to the world’s largest beef-importing market.

Brazil was assigned a quota of 1.1 million tons, while Uruguay will be allowed to export up to 324,000 tons per year. Australia and the United States were allocated limits of 200,000 tons and 164,000 tons, respectively.

Falling Domestic Prices and Oversupply

Chinese authorities justified the safeguard measures by pointing to a sustained decline in domestic beef prices in recent years, driven by excess supply and weakening demand amid the broader slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy.

At the same time, beef imports have risen sharply, reinforcing China’s role as a key destination for major exporters such as Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Australia, and the United States. The combination of rising imports and softer domestic consumption prompted Beijing to act in order to protect its internal market.

Wall Street Fell for a Fourth Straight Session, but 2026 is Here

Posted on January 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. equities were among the few global markets operating normally on Wednesday, December 31, but trading ended lower as investors remained cautious in the final session of the year amid thin liquidity and the New Year holiday.

Major Wall Street indexes closed in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63% to 48,063.29 points, while the S&P 500 declined 0.73% to 6,845.77 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.76% to 23,241.99 points.

December delivered mixed results for U.S. benchmarks. The Dow gained 0.72% over the month, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.04% and the Nasdaq edged up 0.01%.

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Thin Liquidity and Fed Caution Weigh on Markets

Trading volumes remained light, with many investors already sidelined ahead of the holiday. U.S. bond markets also closed early on Wednesday, further reducing activity.

Markets were still digesting losses from the previous session, extending a late-December pullback that unsettled investors. Sentiment was pressured by the release of minutes from the December policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, which revealed sharp divisions among policymakers over the outlook for interest rates in 2026.

Although the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut at the meeting, the minutes showed that some officials are growing increasingly cautious about further easing, citing persistent inflation pressures and uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. Others warned that maintaining a restrictive stance for too long could risk slowing growth excessively.

Santa Rally Optimism Fades

Investors entered the final days of December expecting the traditional “Santa Claus rally,” a period that historically delivers gains in the last sessions of the year and early January. Those hopes faded as equities continued to slide.

“A pullback took hold as 2025 came to a close, suggesting that the Santa rally may have arrived early,” said Katie Stockton, managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, in a research note.

Analysts pointed to weak market leadership and profit-taking after a strong year for major indexes as key factors dampening seasonal optimism. With few economic releases scheduled during the holiday-shortened week, markets were driven largely by technical factors, policy expectations, and year-end portfolio adjustments.

Notable Movers

Shares of TransDigm Group rose 1.1% after the company announced a definitive agreement to acquire Stellant Systems for approximately $960 million in cash. Stellant Systems, a portfolio company of Arlington Capital Partners, designs and manufactures high-power electronic components for aerospace and defense markets.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation fell 2% after the company disclosed that damage from Hurricane Melissa will keep seven properties in Jamaica closed until late 2026, weighing on its financial outlook. The announcement came alongside the completion of Hyatt’s $2 billion sale of the Playa to Tortuga Resorts real estate portfolio.

Meanwhile, RLX Technology advanced 1.3% after extending its share buyback program by an additional 24 months through December 31, 2027. Under the program, the company is authorized to repurchase up to $500 million of its American Depositary Shares.

Despite Milei, Argentine Assets End 2025 in Negative Territory

Posted on December 31, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Argentine stocks listed on Wall Street traded broadly lower, with no clear local catalysts to guide price action.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech.

Despite the ruling party’s victory in the midterm elections under President Javier Milei, Argentine assets signaled that expectations had been set extremely high. Markets appear to be reassessing the pace and depth of the reform agenda, while acknowledging that significant political risks remain.

In addition, structural constraints continue to weigh on the outlook, particularly the limited inflow of foreign capital, which has so far failed to materialize at scale and remains a key obstacle to sustaining long-term growth and asset revaluation.

Argentine Asset Performance

With domestic markets closed due to a banking holiday, Argentine equities trading in the U.S. via ADRs posted widespread losses, with only a handful of exceptions. The weakest performers included IRSA (-1.62%), followed by Cresud (-1.62%), Grupo Supervielle (-1.34%), and Grupo Financiero Galicia (-0.93%).

Argentine companies that trade directly on Wall Street also moved lower. MercadoLibre slipped 0.30%, while Bioceres fell 1.15%.

On the upside, only a few ADRs managed to post gains in the final sessions of the year. YPF rose 0.17%, Transportadora de Gas del Sur added 0.16%, Central Puerto climbed 0.63%, and Telecom Argentina advanced 1.26%.

Merval, Bonds, and Country Risk

On Tuesday, Argentina’s benchmark S&P Merval fell 1.6% in pesos to 3,051,616.77 points, while its dollar-denominated version declined 1% to 2,007.60 points. Over the full year, the index gained 20.4% in local currency, but fell 6% in dollar terms, as the CCL exchange rate rose more sharply.

In fixed income, dollar-denominated sovereign bonds closed mixed. Losses were led by Bonar AL29 (-0.9%) and Global GD29 (-0.6%), while gains were posted by Global GD38 (+0.9%) and Bonar AL30 (+0.6%).

The latest available reading for Argentina’s country-risk premium stood at around 571 basis points, unchanged from Monday. Compared with the end of 2024, the indicator has fallen by 64 points, although it is worth noting that it peaked at 1,456 points in September, amid concerns over exchange-rate sustainability and the ruling coalition’s electoral prospects.

Overall, Argentine assets are set to close 2025 in negative territory, reflecting a year marked by volatility, currency pressures, and shifting investor sentiment.

Wall Street Extends Losses in the Final Session of a Record Year

Posted on December 31, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. equities are among the few major markets trading normally on Wednesday, December 31, as Wall Street closes out a record-setting year dominated by technology stocks.

Broad Market Strength Signals Renewed Risk Appetite Across Wall Street

Major indexes are edging lower in the final trading session of 2025. Despite recent declines, markets are on track to end the year on a solid footing after months of volatility driven by tariff uncertainty under U.S. President Donald Trump and an unprecedented surge of enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence.

By mid-session, the S&P 500 was down 0.18%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also lower, falling 0.20%.

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A Volatile but Profitable Year

Wall Street’s annual performance was initially expected to lag the strong gains of the previous two years. In April, Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs triggered a sharp sell-off in global markets, clouding the outlook for monetary policy in the world’s largest economy and pushing investors away from U.S. equities early in the year.

However, easing trade tensions—combined with strong gains in AI-related technology stocks and interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve—helped markets recover. U.S. equities have since returned to record highs, with technology stocks leading the advance.

Among the standout performers was NVIDIA, which gained 13.6% this year and became the first publicly traded company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion. The rally was fueled by continued demand for AI chips and data-center infrastructure.

Another major winner was Alphabet, which surged more than 65%, putting it on track for its best annual performance since 2009. The stock benefited from multiple catalysts, including major AI partnerships, a $4.9 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway, and a favorable ruling in a high-profile antitrust case.

As the year draws to a close, Wall Street appears poised to finish 2025 with record gains—despite ending it with a modest pullback—underscoring the dominant role of technology and artificial intelligence in shaping market leadership.