Record U.S. Debt Fuels Bitcoin’s Rise as an Alternative Asset

The world’s leading cryptocurrency is once again positioning itself as a hedge asset amid expectations of dollar depreciation.

U.S. national debt has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $38 trillion. Beyond the headline figure, the rapid pace of federal borrowing is reinforcing a narrative that is gaining traction among investors: the structural erosion of the dollar’s value and the growing appeal of alternative assets such as Bitcoin (BTC).

The U.S. economy continues to run persistently large fiscal deficits, driven by higher defense spending, expanded social programs, and the rising cost of servicing debt in a higher interest-rate environment. Interest payments alone are on track to exceed $1 trillion per year, becoming one of the fastest-growing items in the federal budget. This dynamic narrows fiscal flexibility and increases the likelihood that long-term adjustment will come through inflation or currency depreciation.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin gains ground amid rising U.S. debt

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is once again emerging as a hedge against fiscal deterioration. Its fixed supply—capped at 21 million coins—stands in stark contrast to the steady expansion of U.S. debt and the monetary base.

For a growing segment of the market, record levels of indebtedness strengthen the case that the dollar faces structural pressures that are difficult to reverse without significant economic costs. The logic is straightforward: the higher the debt burden, the more dependent the system becomes on accommodative monetary policy to support Treasury financing. That dependence fuels expectations of future easing cycles—an environment that has historically favored scarce, non-sovereign assets like BTC.

It is no coincidence that each new peak in U.S. liabilities revives the debate over Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold.”

A more institutional crypto market

Rising debt levels are also coinciding with deeper institutional adoption of crypto assets. Exchange-traded funds, investment banks, and asset managers are increasingly incorporating Bitcoin into diversified portfolios—not merely as a speculative bet, but as a macro hedge.

For these investors, U.S. fiscal deterioration underscores the need for assets that are not tied to political decision-making. That said, the impact is neither immediate nor linear. Bitcoin remains sensitive to global liquidity conditions, real interest rates, and overall risk appetite.

In the short term, elevated debt can coexist with restrictive monetary policy that caps performance. Over the medium to long term, however, the record level of U.S. debt reinforces Bitcoin’s underlying narrative.

Venezuela: Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo Forecast Its Impact

After the U.S. intervention that led to Maduro’s capture, markets assess the impact on the energy sector.

New York, September 28, 2016: A Wells Fargo retail location in Manhattan.

The world is still digesting the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, which ended with the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Among the many consequences of this action is a significant shift in the energy sector, with both economic and geopolitical implications.

Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, meaning that U.S. involvement in its production could reshape global energy dynamics. Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo—two of Wall Street’s leading investment banks—have outlined their views on the geopolitical outlook and the future of Venezuelan energy markets.

Venezuelan stocks, bonds, and oil

Morgan Stanley expects the U.S. intervention to primarily affect Venezuelan bonds (VENZ and PDVSA), forecasting price gains of up to five points “as markets price in a higher probability of debt restructuring and potentially higher recovery rates.” However, the bank anticipates stronger performance over time as spreads compress relative to sovereign benchmarks.

“The impact on oil prices is more nuanced: short-term risks of production disruptions are likely to be offset by the prospect of higher output in the medium term if political conditions stabilize. Gold prices also show an upward bias due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty,” Morgan Stanley noted in its latest client report.

The bank added that well rehabilitation efforts could significantly boost output, potentially restoring production to around 2 million barrels per day—levels last seen in the mid-2010s—within one to two years.

Wells Fargo, meanwhile, struck a more cautious tone. “We do not believe that the removal of Nicolás Maduro by the United States will act as a catalyst capable of destabilizing global or Latin American financial markets, nor oil prices,” the bank stated.

It also noted that Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA debt have been among the best-performing assets since the Trump administration took office in January 2025, nearly doubling in value over the past 12 months. “While most emerging-market assets rallied last year, the degree of outperformance in Venezuelan assets reflects, in our view, growing market confidence in a potential regime-change scenario.”

Geopolitical realignment

On the geopolitical front, Wells Fargo highlighted that Latin America is already deeply divided between countries aligned with the United States and those closer to China, and that Washington’s role in Maduro’s removal is likely to exacerbate these fractures.

Current alignments include Argentina leaning toward the U.S. and Nicaragua toward China, but shifts may occur. Colombia and Brazil could move closer to China following tensions with Washington, while Chile may gravitate toward the U.S. after the election of José Antonio Kast as president.

In this context, Wells Fargo warned that “the global economy is likely to continue facing negative consequences stemming from fragmentation and bloc formation. The magnitude of the adverse impact will depend on which countries align with which blocs, but in aggregate, lower global GDP growth is the outcome of a fractured world economy.”

Venezuelan Bonds Rally More Than 25% Following U.S. Intervention

Following the fall of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s defaulted bonds surged amid bets on a political shift, although analysts warn about the weight of the country’s extremely high debt burden.

The departure of Nicolás Maduro had an immediate impact on Venezuelan financial assets. On Monday, following the intervention carried out by the United States, Venezuela’s sovereign bonds closed at $42.62, posting gains of more than 25% compared with their value last Friday, prior to the resumption of Caracas-linked trading. The move translated into a daily increase of 5.25%.

After years of economic crisis and U.S. sanctions that isolated the country from international capital markets, Venezuela entered default in late 2017 after failing to meet payments on international bonds issued by both the government and state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).

Since then, accumulated interest and legal claims stemming from past expropriations have added to the unpaid debt, pushing total external liabilities well beyond the bonds’ original nominal value. Venezuela’s debt has continued to grow since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, amid speculative bets on a political transition in the country.

According to a recent UBS report, “there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the true state of Venezuela’s economy and its long-term repayment capacity, given the severe deterioration in the quality of official economic statistics in recent years. Geopolitical factors, including the roles of China and Russia as key creditors, add an additional layer of complexity.”

In this context, analysts at the Swiss investment bank urged investors to “exercise extreme caution,” citing political uncertainty and limited visibility regarding Venezuela’s ability to service its debt.

What is Venezuela’s debt-to-GDP ratio?

Venezuela has roughly $60 billion in defaulted bonds alone. However, total external debt—including PDVSA liabilities, bilateral loans, and arbitration awards—is estimated at between $150 billion and $170 billion, according to analysts, depending on how accrued interest and court rulings are accounted for.

The International Monetary Fund estimates Venezuela’s nominal GDP at around $82.8 billion for 2025, implying a debt-to-GDP ratio of between 180% and 200%, one of the highest in the world.

A PDVSA bond originally maturing in 2020 was backed by a majority stake in U.S. refiner Citgo, which is ultimately owned by PDVSA and headquartered in Caracas. Citgo has since become a central asset in court-supervised creditor efforts to recover funds.

Most creditors are believed to be international bondholders, including distressed-debt investors commonly referred to as “vulture funds,” as well as companies that obtained compensation through international arbitration following asset expropriations by the Venezuelan state.

U.S. courts have upheld multi-billion-dollar awards in favor of companies such as ConocoPhillips and Crystallex, converting those rulings into enforceable debt obligations and allowing creditors to pursue Venezuelan assets abroad.

The debt restructuring process: who the creditors are

Given the sheer number of claims, ongoing legal proceedings, and persistent political uncertainty, any formal debt restructuring is expected to be complex and protracted.

A sovereign debt restructuring would likely need to be anchored in an IMF-backed program setting fiscal targets and debt-sustainability assumptions. However, Venezuela has not held an annual IMF consultation in nearly two decades and remains excluded from the institution’s financing.

U.S. sanctions represent another major hurdle. Since 2017, restrictions imposed by Washington have severely constrained Venezuela’s ability to issue or restructure debt without explicit licenses from the U.S. Treasury Department.

In November, Citigroup analysts estimated that a principal haircut of at least 50% would be required to restore debt sustainability and meet potential IMF conditions. Under Citi’s base-case scenario, Venezuela could offer creditors a 20-year bond with a coupon of around 4.4%, along with a 10-year zero-coupon instrument to compensate for accrued interest.

Trump Calls Meeting with Oil Firms to Map Venezuela Restart

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that one of his main priorities is securing access to Venezuelan oil for American companies. The Latin American country holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves.

One of the most significant issues surrounding U.S. intervention is access to, availability of, and the reactivation of Venezuelan oil production. In several public appearances, President Donald Trump said he aims to revive the country’s oil industry. In fact, the president plans to meet with executives from U.S. oil companies later this week to discuss how to increase production. However, estimates warn that the reconstruction plan could cost more than $100 billion.

Venezuela’s oil industry peaked in the 1970s, and returning to those production levels would require sustained, large-scale financial investment. According to estimates by Francisco Monaldi, Director of Latin American Energy Policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, rebuilding the sector would require investments of roughly $10 billion per year for at least a decade.

Trump’s meetings with oil companies

According to Reuters, the three largest U.S. oil companies—Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), ConocoPhillips (COP.N), and Chevron (CVX.N)—have not yet held talks with the administration regarding the removal of Maduro. This contrasts with Trump’s own statements over the weekend, when he said he had already met with “all” U.S. oil companies, both before and after the ouster of the Venezuelan president.

In this context, what happens during the upcoming meetings will be critical for Trump’s ambitions to boost Venezuela’s oil production and exports. The country is a former OPEC member with the world’s largest proven oil reserves and has the added advantage that much of its crude can be processed in U.S. refineries specifically designed for heavy oil.

Despite the White House’s stated intentions, it remains unclear which executives will attend the upcoming meetings with the Trump administration.

The plan to revive Venezuela’s oil industry

The Trump administration’s interest in Venezuela’s reserves has been evident in recent public remarks by both the president and his top official, Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, but production collapsed over the 12 years of Nicolás Maduro’s rule, who was captured Saturday morning by U.S. forces. Current output stands at around one million barrels per day, far below the nearly four million barrels the country produced in 1974.

From Washington, Rubio said U.S. oil companies could be eager to return to Venezuela, particularly because of its heavy crude, which is critical for refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast. “I haven’t spoken to oil companies in recent days, but we’re quite confident there will be strong interest,” he said in an interview with ABC. “I believe there will be enormous demand and interest from the private sector if they are given the space to operate.”

Challenges and Interested Companies

However, this potential interest clashes with a fragile political and institutional reality. Former Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) executive Lino Carrillo, who left the country more than two decades ago, stressed that companies will need clear signs of stability before committing. “For any oil company to seriously consider investing in Venezuela, there would need to be a new Congress or National Assembly,” he said. “That is not what is happening now. Definitely not.”

In the meantime, the country’s remaining oil production depends largely on Chevron, the only major U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela. The Houston-based firm accounts for about 25% of national output and operates under special licenses that allow it to remain active despite U.S. sanctions.

Two other U.S. companies—Exxon and ConocoPhillips—are considered natural candidates for a potential rebuilding of the sector. Both have the experience and scale required but exited the country after their assets were nationalized during Hugo Chávez’s government in the mid-2000s. Neither responded to recent requests for comment, although Exxon has previously said it would only consider returning under appropriate conditions.

Chevron, for its part, said in a statement that its priority is the safety of its personnel and the integrity of its assets. “We continue to operate in full compliance with all applicable laws and regulations,” the company said.

Markets on Alert as BoJ Governor Hints at More Rate Hikes

The head of Japan’s central bank said monetary policy will continue to tighten in line with economic improvement and inflation.

Bank of Japan rate hike didn't really help the JPY
Bank of Japan rate hike didn’t really help the JPY

The benchmark rate has already reached 0.75%, its highest level since 1995, while a weak yen continues to fuel price pressures.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his strategy of continuing the interest-rate hiking cycle during his first public appearance of the year before private-sector bankers. The stance puts him at odds with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is pushing for fiscal stimulus to revive Japan’s economy.

“We will continue raising interest rates in line with improvements in the economy and inflation,” Ueda said on Monday at the New Year conference organized by the Japanese Bankers Association. He added that “appropriately adjusting monetary easing will lead to the achievement of stable inflation and long-term economic growth.”

[[USD/JPY-graph]]

Japan’s economy experienced a moderate recovery last year despite the hit to corporate profits caused by higher U.S. tariffs, Ueda noted. He added that “it is highly likely that wages and prices will continue to rise together at a moderate pace.”

Speaking to the same banking audience, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan is at a critical stage of transition toward a growth-driven economy, after years mired in deflation. Less than a month ago, the Takaichi administration announced its largest stimulus package since the Covid-19 pandemic, totaling $112 billion.

Next steps and currency pressure

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Most analysts expect the next rate move to take place around mid-2026, although some warn it could come sooner due to the yen’s weakness.

The Japanese currency was trading around 157.15 per dollar by midday in Tokyo on Monday, after touching 157.25, its weakest level in two weeks. Traders believe the currency’s proximity to the critical threshold of 160 per dollar played a key role in last month’s rate decision.

A weak yen intensifies inflationary pressures through higher import costs. Japanese households have been feeling the squeeze, as the core inflation measure has remained at or above the 2% target for more than three and a half years, eroding purchasing power.

The BoJ’s next monetary policy decision is scheduled for January 23.

EU Welcomes “Progress” on Mercosur Deal, Hopes to Sign Soon

Despite initial resistance from some key EU players, the path toward signing the agreement appears to be nearing its end.

The European Union (EU) said on Monday that there has been “progress” among the bloc’s member states toward approving the trade agreement with South America’s Mercosur countries and that it expects to sign the deal “soon.”

After 25 years of negotiations, the agreement would create the world’s largest free trade area, boosting commerce between the EU’s 27 member states and Mercosur countries.

“There have been discussions, work, and progress over the past two weeks,” said European Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho, who added that the bloc is on the “right track” to sign the agreement in the near future, despite not confirming January 12 as the date expected for formally signing the free trade deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

Why the EU–Mercosur agreement has yet to be signed

The Mercosur meeting in Brazil on December 20 was expected to provide the framework for a vote on the agreement. However, that objective was derailed by opposition from France and Italy, which at the time called for a delay in the signing due to concerns raised by their domestic agricultural sectors.

The agreement would help the European Union export more vehicles, machinery, wine, and other alcoholic beverages to Mercosur countries, in part as a response to global trade tensions. It would also ease access for Mercosur exports to Europe, including beef, sugar, rice, honey, and soybeans.

Many European producers fear they would struggle to compete with an influx of lower-cost products from large producers such as Brazil and its regional partners. In this context, France and Italy have pushed for the inclusion of additional safeguard clauses, stricter import controls, and tougher standards for Mercosur producers in order to protect their farmers.

Wall Street Cheers U.S. Intervention in Venezuela

Markets do not believe that U.S. military intervention in Venezuela will affect oil prices in the short term. However, enthusiasm is growing among oil companies with ties to the South American country.

In the first trading session following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, major Wall Street indexes posted strong gains, alongside advances in oil and precious metals. Among the energy companies that surged were several with both ongoing operations and outstanding legal disputes involving Venezuela. Elsewhere, European markets recorded broad gains, while Asian markets also closed higher, with increases of up to 4% in some exchanges.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500—an index tracking the largest companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange—rose 0.64%. The Nasdaq Composite, which is heavily weighted toward technology stocks, gained 0.69%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.23%.

Still, analysts at Schwab stressed that “U.S. intervention in Venezuela is more of a geopolitical event than a market event.” They added that “while the situation in Venezuela remains fluid and will undoubtedly continue to evolve, global markets have so far absorbed the news calmly.”

[[SPX-graph]]

On this point, they emphasized that going forward, “much will depend on the degree of U.S. involvement in Venezuela, how major oil producers outside both countries respond, and whether the energy market faces a broader disruption.”

Market winners

The stocks posting the largest gains during the session were linked to infrastructure construction, refining, and other services within the hydrocarbons sector. SLB NV (+10.22%), Valero Energy (+9.23%), and Halliburton (+7.78%) led the rally. They were followed by Exxon Mobil (+2.60%), Chevron (+5.74%), ConocoPhillips (+2.59%), Marathon Petroleum (+5.94%), and Builders FirstSource (+3.64%).

Chevron, which remained active in Venezuela after the expropriation of foreign oil assets in the early 2000s, is now considered “the best-positioned among the global oil majors to benefit from greater U.S. access to the world’s largest crude reserves.” ConocoPhillips is seeking more than $8 billion from Venezuela, while Exxon still has nearly $1 billion outstanding from expropriation claims, according to rulings by international arbitration courts.

Gains in metals and oil

Strong gains were also observed across the commodities sector. Brent crude, the global benchmark used in much of the world—including Argentina—rose 1.58% to $61.79 per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI crude, the U.S. benchmark, climbed 1.8% to $58.35 per barrel.

In this context, the short-term implications for the market really depend on the type of power transition that takes place in Venezuela. Clearly, a prolonged and disorderly transition increases the risk of short-term supply disruptions.

For now, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has assumed power. While her initial rhetoric was defiant, it appears to be shifting, with statements calling for cooperation between Venezuela and the United States.

This scenario “increases the likelihood that the United States could lift its blockade on sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, which would open the door to a short-term decline in prices.”

Metals recorded even stronger gains. Gold rose 3.01% to $4,449.04 per ounce, silver surged 7.73% to $76.50, platinum climbed 7.07% to $2,288, palladium gained 4.79% to $1,772.50, and copper jumped more than 5% to $5.99.

U.S. Oil Shares Soar After Court Decision Against Maduro

Oil-related assets led gains on Wall Street following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the authorization for Chevron to resume operations in the Caribbean nation.

Crude oil and natural gas are higher today than last week.
Crude oil and natural gas are higher today than last week.

Shares of major U.S. oil producers and energy services companies surged on Monday on Wall Street, reacting to the new scenario created by the trial in New York against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, as well as statements by Donald Trump regarding Venezuela’s oil industry.

As a result, shares of oil majors such as ExxonMobil (+2.2%), Chevron (+5.1%), and ConocoPhillips (+2.6%) posted solid gains. Oilfield services companies also rallied sharply, with Halliburton rising 7.9% and Schlumberger jumping 9.1%. Refining and transportation firms joined the rally, including Marathon Petroleum (+5.9%) and Valero Energy (+9.2%).

[[USOIL-graph]]

U.S. authorizes Chevron to restart oil operations in Venezuela

The Trump administration authorized Chevron to reactivate its operations in Venezuela as part of an agreement that included the release of detainees and assurances that the proceeds would not flow to the Maduro government, according to El Espectador.

The administration reinstated Chevron Corp.’s license to resume oil operations in Venezuela after months of suspension. A source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, speaking on condition of anonymity, that the move is part of a broader agreement between Washington and Caracas.

The deal included the release of 10 U.S. citizens detained in Venezuela and the repatriation of 250 Venezuelans imprisoned in El Salvador. According to Bloomberg, the agreement ensures that revenues from production rights and taxes will not directly benefit Nicolás Maduro’s government.

Markets reacted moderately to the news. Brent crude prices edged up just 0.1% to $68.57 per barrel, as investors weighed the prospect of a potential increase in global oil supply.

Houston-based Chevron had been the only major U.S. oil company maintaining a presence in Venezuela. Through joint ventures with state-owned PDVSA, its production had reached 240,000 barrels per day before operations were suspended in May, accounting for nearly 25% of the country’s total output.

Chevron conducts its global operations in compliance with applicable laws and regulations governing its business, as well as with the sanctions frameworks established by the U.S. government, including those in place for Venezuela.

BYD Surpasses Tesla to Become the World’s Leading EV Producer

The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD confirmed it met its full-year sales target for 2025, marking a major milestone that positions the company as the new global leader in the EV industry—surpassing Tesla, led by Elon Musk.

Headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD reported total vehicle sales of 4.6 million units in 2025, representing growth of nearly 8% year over year and matching the target the company had set for the full year.

The result is particularly significant given that 2.26 million of those vehicles were fully electric—well above Tesla’s 1.64 million EV deliveries over the same period. When plug-in hybrids are included, BYD further cements its position as one of the fastest-growing automakers in the clean-energy segment.

Leadership Comes with Challenges

Despite the milestone, BYD’s ascent has not been without headwinds. The company revised its original sales targets lower earlier in the year, reflecting tougher conditions in China’s auto market, where domestic demand has cooled and competition has intensified.

Rivals such as Geely and Xiaomi have gained traction with new models, putting pressure on BYD’s domestic growth. BYD’s founder and CEO, Wang Chuanfu, has acknowledged that the company’s technological edge—once a key differentiator—is increasingly challenged in this competitive environment.

To address these pressures, BYD has emphasized its scale in research and development. The company employs more than 120,000 engineers, who are working on new innovations aimed at restoring and expanding its technical advantages.

Global Expansion and Ambitious Targets

A key bright spot for BYD in 2025 was its performance abroad. Overseas deliveries exceeded 1 million vehicles, providing a strong boost to the company’s global expansion strategy.

Looking ahead, BYD has outlined ambitious goals for 2026, targeting exports of 1.5 to 1.6 million vehicles, with a focus on expanding its footprint across Europe, Latin America, and other international markets.

Still, risks remain. China has begun to scale back incentives that previously supported EV purchases, potentially dampening domestic demand. At the same time, external trade barriers—including tariffs in Europe and regulatory restrictions in the United States—add complexity to BYD’s international ambitions.

Even so, industry analysts expect BYD to extend its lead in 2026, with total vehicle sales potentially surpassing 5 million units, further widening the gap with Tesla as the global EV market becomes increasingly competitive.

Wall Street Opens 2026 Flat and European Markets Reach Records

Technology stocks tied to artificial intelligence are among the most actively traded names ahead of the open, signaling renewed optimism around AI.

The European Union negotiates with the U.S .
The European Union negotiates with the U.S .

A fresh wave of enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is lifting global equity markets at the start of 2026. Major U.S. indexes are trading mixed on Friday, while leading stock markets in the United Kingdom and across Europe are pushing to new record highs.

In early trading, the S&P 500 was down 0.03%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, falling 0.33%.

Among the strongest performers were Micron Technology (+7.68%), Intel (+5.8%), and Lam Research (+6.2%). On the downside, shares of Intuit (-4.6%), ServiceNow (-4.45%), and Fair Isaac (-4.04%) posted the steepest declines.

The most actively traded stocks are concentrated in the AI-linked technology space. NVIDIA rose 2.1%, while Intel, Tesla (-0.89%), Micron, and Amazon (-1.53%) also saw heavy volume.

[[SPX-graph]]

With no major corporate earnings releases on the calendar, investor attention turned to U.S. manufacturing data. The latest ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 in December, in line with expectations but slightly below November’s reading.

Global Markets Set New Records

Outside the United States, equity markets extended gains. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.69% to a new all-time high, heading for its third consecutive weekly gain. Germany’s DAX edged down 0.05% after the PMI release, while France’s CAC 40 added 0.23%.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.37%, breaking above the symbolic 10,000-point level for the first time, marking a strong start to 2026 for British equities.

[[DAX-graph]]

Asian markets also opened the year on a bullish note. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.76%, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high. Markets in Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore hit record levels as well, while exchanges in Japan and mainland China remained closed for holidays.

Overall, while Wall Street lacks clear direction at the start of the year, global equity markets are entering 2026 with strong momentum—once again led by optimism around artificial intelligence.