The European Central Bank to Set Policy Based on the War

Posted on April 6, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Through a member of its Governing Council, the institution confirmed that energy pressures stemming from the war could lead to a more restrictive stance.

The conflict in the Middle East continues to ripple through the global economy. Yannis Stournaras, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and governor of the Bank of Greece, said Monday that the appropriate monetary policy for the euro area will depend on the scale and nature of energy supply disruptions caused by the war involving the United States, Iran and Israel.

Speaking at the annual shareholders’ meeting of the Bank of Greece in Athens, Stournaras noted that if the surge in energy prices proves temporary, the need for monetary tightening would likely remain limited.

However, he added that a more restrictive policy stance could become necessary if higher energy prices prove stronger and more persistent, particularly if they begin to affect medium-term inflation expectations and wage dynamics across the euro area.

Signs the war could be nearing an end?

For more than a week, Donald Trump has delivered mixed messages about the conflict. At times, he has suggested that negotiations with Tehran are advancing toward a ceasefire, while at other moments he has hinted at further military action in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. president has recently intensified pressure on Iran, issuing an ultimatum demanding that the strategic waterway be reopened before Tuesday. Tehran has rejected the demand, raising the prospect of new attacks and additional measures targeting energy resources.

Global Inflation: 34% of Companies Passing Costs to Consumers

Posted on April 6, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

A private report shows that more companies are increasingly passing the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on to prices, amid regulatory uncertainty and falling sales.

Trade policies promoted by Donald Trump are beginning to hit consumers more directly. According to a survey by KPMG, a growing number of large companies have already passed most of those costs on to final prices and expect further increases in the coming months.

The survey, conducted among 300 senior executives at companies with revenue above $1 billion, shows that 34% of firms are already transferring most tariff costs to consumers. That figure marks a sharp increase from 21% in September 2025 and 13% in May of the same year, shortly after the tougher trade policy was announced.

In addition, more than half of respondents (55%) expect price increases of at least 15% over the next six months, as cost pressures remain elevated.

Price increases beyond tariffs

The report also warns that cost pass-through is not limited to products directly affected by trade measures. Some 37% of companies said they raised prices on goods not subject to tariffs, while 19% implemented increases that exceeded the direct impact of higher import costs.

“The burden of tariffs is now falling directly on consumers. While companies initially absorbed the hit in their margins, most are now reconfiguring pricing strategies for a world of persistent cost pressures,” said Brian Higgins, head of industrial manufacturing at KPMG in the United States.

Falling sales and weaker activity

Tighter trade policy is also beginning to show up in business activity. According to the survey, 82% of companies reported a decline in export sales, while 61% said domestic sales in the United States had fallen.

These figures reinforce concerns about the economic impact of trade tensions, particularly as rising prices risk weighing on consumer demand.

The outlook has become even more uncertain following a recent ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that declared some of Trump’s tariffs illegal. However, the former president has signaled he will seek to reintroduce similar measures under different legal frameworks. After the ruling, the government moved ahead with a global 10% tariff that can only remain in place for up to 150 days under current regulations.

Uncertainty remains over the scope of future measures. Sectors such as retail and consumer goods appear particularly difficult to target, given complex production chains and the wide range of products involved.

JPMorgan Chase Turns More Political, Calls for a Stronger U.S. Military

Posted on April 6, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, signaled a growing political stance by arguing that the United States must “strengthen itself” to maintain both its military and economic power.

The comments came alongside new financing initiatives announced by the bank, including plans to invest more than $1 trillion in sectors linked to national security and economic resilience.

“With the right policies and decisive actions, the United States will maintain the strongest military and economy, and will continue to be the bastion of freedom and the arsenal of democracy. But no country has a divine right to success,” Dimon wrote in a shareholder letter reported by Bloomberg L.P..

Major investment initiatives

Last week, JPMorgan introduced the “American Dream Initiative,” aimed at expanding economic opportunities across local communities in the United States.

The program follows the “Security and Resilience Initiative,” announced in October, through which the bank committed to investing $1.5 trillion over the next decade in sectors intended to strengthen U.S. economic resilience and national security.

These moves reflect Dimon’s long-standing political interest, which has become more explicit in recent years.

“We have a responsibility to contribute to shaping the right policies—not just for our company, but for the country and the world. Many companies will only thrive if their countries thrive,” Dimon wrote.

“Critical issues facing the United States and the world”

Dimon’s 48-page letter includes a section titled “Critical Issues Facing the United States and the World,” the longest part of the document. In it, he calls for a major free-trade agreement with Europe, combined with economic and military reforms.

He also warned about rising geopolitical risks, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Among other concerns, Dimon highlighted potential risks in the private credit market, noting that emerging credit losses could signal broader vulnerabilities in the financial system.

He added that private equity investments now remain in portfolios for an average of seven years, nearly double the historical norm, and cautioned that markets have experienced largely bullish conditions since the 2008 financial crisis, raising questions about how investors might react during a prolonged downturn.

Dimon also stressed that cities must remain competitive and predicted that the adoption of artificial intelligence could spread far faster than previous technological revolutions such as electricity or the internet.

“We are not going to ignore reality,” he said.

Bitcoin Jumps More Than 3%, Nears $70,000 as Markets Watch Iran

Posted on April 6, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market is trading higher as investors await the final hours of the ultimatum given by Donald Trump to Iran to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. In this context, Bitcoin rose and approached the $69,000 mark, according to data from Binance.

Bitcoin is making gradual progress upward after a bullish shift this week.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed 3.3% to $69,646. Meanwhile, Ethereum followed the trend, gaining 4.2% to $2,144.86. Among major altcoins, XRP advanced 2.6%, while BNB rose 2.4%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Cryptocurrencies await signals from the war

The crypto market is trading in positive territory as investors closely monitor developments surrounding the conflict involving Iran, with the deadline approaching for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a route through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows.

Trump warned that if an agreement with Iran is not reached before Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Washington time, the United States could launch attacks targeting Iranian energy facilities, bridges, and other infrastructure.

However, the U.S. president said on Monday that he believes Iran is negotiating “in good faith” and that both sides would prefer to reach an agreement before the deadline expires.

According to Axios, the United States, Iran, and several regional mediators — including Pakistan — are discussing the terms of a 45-day ceasefire proposal that could pave the way for a broader end to the war launched by the United States and Israel on February 28.

Earlier, Trump told reporters that the peace proposal presented by Tehran was “significant,” though he added that it was “not good enough” in its current form.

United States Bond Yields Rise After Strong Employment Data

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds moved higher on Friday after stronger-than-expected labor market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust interest rates in the near term.

The surge in bond yields continues today.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.347%. Despite the daily increase, yields fell 9.4 basis points over the week, marking the largest weekly decline since the week of February 23.

Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yield, which closely reflects interest-rate expectations, climbed 5.2 basis points to 3.85%, though it still declined 6 basis points for the week.

In longer maturities, the 30-year Treasury yield increased 2.4 basis points to 4.914%, while posting a 7-basis-point weekly drop.

Labor market volatility and Fed rate outlook

Earlier in the day, data showed that the United States added 178,000 nonfarm jobs in March, following a downwardly revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%.

However, analysts said the report was not as strong as it initially appeared. “The bond market reaction has moderated somewhat. There were further downward revisions and there is considerable volatility in these data,” said Zachary Griffiths of CreditSights in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The figures are unlikely to significantly alter the outlook for monetary policy, as the economic effects of supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict have yet to fully appear in the data.

After the jobs report, futures tied to U.S. interest rates priced in only one rate cut this year, compared with seven cuts projected late Thursday and as many as 55 before the Middle East conflict escalated.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase warned that negative monthly employment readings may become more frequent. While March was likely too early to capture the full impact of the conflict in the Middle East, some analysts said its effects could start appearing in the April jobs report.

SpaceX Targets $2 Trillion Valuation in Planned IPO

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

SpaceX has reportedly filed confidential paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of preparations for a potential initial public offering, with a valuation that could reach $2 trillion.

SpaceX's value is massively increasing ahead of its public offering. — SpaceX’s value is massively increasing ahead of its public offering.

Discussions are still ongoing, and the details of the listing could change, according to reports. The company is aiming to make its market debut sometime this year.

For years, Elon Musk resisted taking SpaceX public, arguing that pressure from short-term shareholders could interfere with his long-term vision of colonizing Mars. However, the success of the Starship program and the dominance of the Starlink network have pushed the company’s valuation to levels where an IPO is increasingly seen as the logical next step.

Shares of space-sector companies rallied on Wall Street on Thursday following the reports. Intuitive Machines jumped 17%, while AST SpaceMobile gained nearly 9%.

Meanwhile, Virgin Galactic also advanced, rising about 5% during the session.

U.S. Judge Upholds Block on Subpoenas Targeting Jerome Powell

A U.S. judge on Friday reaffirmed his decision to block subpoenas issued as part of a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, a ruling that could further delay efforts by Donald Trump to install a more compliant leader at the central bank.

U.S. District Judge James Boasberg rejected a request from the U.S. Department of Justice to reconsider his earlier ruling, which had effectively halted the criminal investigation involving Powell.

In a March 13 decision, Boasberg determined that subpoenas issued in January to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors were improperly motivated and aimed at pressuring Powell to comply with Trump’s demands for rapid interest-rate cuts or to step down.

The subpoenas—issued by Washington D.C.’s top federal prosecutor, Jeanine Pirro, a close Trump ally—sought information about cost overruns tied to renovations at the Fed’s headquarters, as well as Powell’s congressional testimony last year regarding the project.

By refusing to reconsider the ruling, the court effectively keeps the subpoenas suspended while the case moves toward a potential appeal. Legal experts say the process could extend the standoff between the White House and the central bank, adding another layer of uncertainty around the leadership of the Federal Reserve at a time when interest-rate policy remains a key issue for financial markets.

Argentine Court Suspends Labor Modernization Law Backed by Milei

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Just over a month after its approval, the Labor Modernization Law promoted by President Javier Milei suffered a setback after a labor court provisionally suspended 82 of its 218 articles.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech before the crowd, during an inauguration ceremony at the Congress in Buenos Aires on December 10, 2023.

The ruling was issued following a legal challenge filed by the Confederación General del Trabajo (CGT), which argued that the reform introduced regressive and permanent changes that undermined key labor protections, including safeguards against dismissal and freedom of association.

The union questioned the constitutionality of several provisions in the legislation, claiming they violated fundamental principles such as labor progressivity, union freedom, and the broader legal framework designed to protect workers.

Labor judge Raúl Ojeda accepted the union’s arguments and granted a precautionary injunction.

The ruling also suspended other measures included in Milei’s reform package, such as provisions aimed at repealing the country’s telework law, reducing corporate liability in subcontracting arrangements, and classifying gig economy workers as “independent service providers.”

Following the decision, Argentina’s Ministry of Human Capital of Argentina announced that the government will appeal the ruling. “All necessary legal avenues will be pursued to guarantee the full implementation of the new law,” the ministry said.

Additional hurdles ahead

The court’s decision represents one of the most significant challenges faced so far by the labor reform proposed by the administration of Javier Milei. The legislation is also expected to face further scrutiny in Congress.

In the Senate of Argentina, lawmakers are seeking to repeal the proposed Labor Assistance Fund (FAL), arguing that it does not constitute a genuine social security system but rather an individual capitalization scheme indirectly financed with public resources.

The fund, included in the reform, was designed as an alternative to the traditional severance payment system. Instead of a single payout upon dismissal, employers would make monthly contributions to a fund that workers could access in the event of job termination.

Under the proposal, large companies would contribute 1% of payroll, while small and medium-sized enterprises would contribute roughly 2.5%.

Despite the setback, local media report that the government—through the Procuración del Tesoro de la Nación—is preparing a legal appeal to overturn the decision. Officials argue that the reform is key to economic recovery and to attracting new investment into the country.

U.S. Job Growth Beats Expectations in March

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. economy added 178,000 nonfarm jobs in March, well above the 60,000 expected by economists, although risks to the labor market remain amid the ongoing war in the Middle East.

According to the closely watched report released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the world’s largest economy rebounded after losing 133,000 jobs in February.

The report also showed the unemployment rate edging down from 4.4% to 4.3%.

Despite the stronger-than-expected data, the figures are unlikely to significantly alter the outlook for interest rates, as the economic effects of supply disruptions linked to the conflict have yet to fully materialize. The Federal Reserve last month kept its benchmark rate within the 3.50%–3.75% range, and expectations for rate cuts this year have declined.

Economists expect labor market weakness in the second quarter

In late February, the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran, triggering a surge of more than 50% in global oil prices and pushing domestic gasoline prices higher.

Economists say the war—now in its second month—adds another layer of uncertainty for businesses and could begin to weigh on the labor market in the second quarter.

Mass deportations carried out by the administration of Donald Trump have also contributed to labor market stagnation by reducing labor supply, which in turn affects demand for goods and services, according to some economists.

Because labor supply growth has been historically low, estimates suggest the economy now needs fewer than 50,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population. Some forecasts even place the equilibrium rate near zero or negative.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase warned that negative monthly employment readings may become more frequent, noting that March was likely too early to capture the full economic impact of the Middle East conflict. They said clearer effects could emerge as early as the April jobs report.

Meanwhile, the average retail gasoline price in the United States has climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, adding inflationary pressure and eroding household purchasing power despite solid wage growth.

At the same time, the war erased roughly $3.2 trillion from global equity markets in March, underscoring the broader financial impact of the conflict.

Bitcoin Trades Near $67,000 After Hitting Lowest Level Since September 2024

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Geopolitical tensions continue to cloud market sentiment, while recent remarks from Donald Trump have offered little clarity for investors.

Bitcoin hit a 2026 low after Trump announcement.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile amid the conflict in the Middle East. In that context, Bitcoin briefly climbed above the $67,000 mark, according to data from Binance.

The leading cryptocurrency is still down about 2.9% on the session, trading near $66,928. Meanwhile, Ethereum slipped 0.3% to around $2,061. Among major altcoins, Solana fell 9.1%, while BNB declined 7.4%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Cryptocurrencies await signals from the war

Bitcoin dropped as much as 3.6% during the session, briefly falling below $66,000 — its lowest level since September 2024, a threshold only previously breached during a sharp selloff on February 6 when prices rebounded from around $60,000.

On a six-month basis, the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains down roughly 44.6%.

The war between the United States and Iran continues to shape sentiment in the crypto market. Trump recently said Washington intends to end military operations against Iran within the next two to three weeks and suggested negotiations with Tehran were progressing, though investors still see a risk of further escalation.

According to Dushyant Shahrawat of Bloomberg L.P., Iran plays a notable role in global Bitcoin mining, accounting for roughly 6%–8% of the network’s hashrate. Around 70% of that mining activity is reportedly controlled by the military.

As a result, energy disruptions caused by the conflict have reduced the country’s mining capacity, creating potential systemic fragility for Bitcoin’s network.

Wall Street Ends Mixed After Iran Announces Protocol Plan for the Strait of Hormuz

Posted on April 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Stocks pared earlier losses and finished the session mixed on Thursday after Iranian state media reported that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. U.S. markets will remain closed on Friday for Good Friday.

Major Wall Street indexes significantly reduced their losses after the news. Earlier in the session, equities had declined following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that military operations against Iran could escalate over the next two to three weeks.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1% to 46,504.60 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 21,879.18. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% to 6,582.70.

With markets closed Friday for the holiday, investors remained cautious throughout most of the session, adjusting positions ahead of the long weekend. The prospect of a maritime protocol, however, helped ease some uncertainty.

[[SPX-graph]]

A protocol to ease tensions?

According to Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran is working with Oman to establish a protocol aimed at supervising maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The report cited Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi.

The initiative would seek to facilitate safe passage and improve services for vessels transiting the route rather than impose restrictions, Gharibabadi said.

Oil prices trimmed part of their earlier gains following the report. Brent crude futures for June delivery rose 7.35% to $108.60 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 11.35% to $111.48.

The future of the strait and the possibility of reopening it have been central concerns for investors this week, particularly after Trump’s address to the nation on Wednesday evening.

From the White House, Trump said the United States would intensify operations against Iran in the coming weeks and suggested Washington was close to achieving its objectives.

“We’re going to hit them hard in the next two or three weeks. We’re going to push them back to the Stone Age where they belong,” Trump said, adding that negotiations were still ongoing. He reiterated that weakening Iran’s nuclear capabilities remained a key objective and claimed that much of the country’s naval and missile strike capacity had already been destroyed.

Global markets remain volatile

Asian markets ended the session sharply lower, led by the Kospi (-4.5%) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-2.4%). European stocks followed the negative trend, with the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.6%, Germany’s DAX down 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 losing 0.2%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 slipping 0.14%.

Earlier in the week, optimism had been high following signals from Washington suggesting the United States was seeking a quick end to the war and that Iran’s new government had requested a ceasefire.

[[DAX-graph]]

On Tuesday, the three major U.S. indexes recorded their best session since May 12 of last year, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 3% and the Nasdaq almost 4%. The rally, driven by investor optimism, helped offset part of March’s steep losses after a report by The Wall Street Journal suggested Trump had told advisers he was willing to withdraw from the conflict even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked.

Despite the rebound, markets still posted their worst monthly performance in a year amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the conflict.