Mexican Peso Weakens Against Dollar After Trump Threatens Iran

Posted on March 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar on Friday and posted a weekly loss, as markets turned cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the United States could strike Iran “with severity” next week.

The currency depreciated amid concerns that tensions between the United States and Iran could escalate over the weekend.

The exchange rate ended the session at 17.9489 pesos per dollar, compared with Thursday’s official close of 17.8449, according to data from Bank of Mexico. The move represented a loss of 10.40 centavos, or 0.58%.

During the session, the dollar traded between a high of 17.9727 pesos and a low of 17.7488. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.78% to 100.53.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Trump comments rattle markets

Trump said the United States would hit Iran “with severity” next week, escalating his rhetoric. Only days earlier, he had suggested the conflict could end sooner than previously expected.

Markets were also reacting to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments, attributed to Iran. U.S. crude futures were trading around $99.28 per barrel despite efforts to ease supply concerns.

The geopolitical backdrop adds another layer of uncertainty. Oil prices hovering near $100 per barrel are a double-edged sword for Mexico: while higher prices boost oil revenues, they also risk importing inflationary pressures.

Economic data

In Mexico, industrial activity declined in January after three consecutive months of gains, marking its weakest reading since December 2024. The drop reflected deterioration across all major components, according to seasonally adjusted data.

Earlier in the day, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic figures also weighed on sentiment. Gross domestic product slowed more than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, while consumer spending rose more than expected in January.

Weekly loss

Against this backdrop, the peso ended the week with a cumulative loss. Compared with last Friday’s official close of 17.8034 per dollar, the currency fell 16.93 centavos, or 0.95%.

Analysts expect pressure on the peso to persist as geopolitical risks remain elevated.

U.S. Opens Trade Investigation Before Trump–Xi Meeting

Posted on March 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. Treasury Secretary and China’s vice premier will meet this weekend in the French capital for a new round of trade negotiations, as tensions rise following fresh U.S. trade investigations targeting 60 economies, including China.

Trade war between the United States and Chine is heating up.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Sunday and Monday in Paris, in what is expected to be the sixth round of trade talks between the two powers since U.S. President Donald Trump revived his tariff offensive against Beijing last year.

The development comes just hours after Washington announced a new investigation into alleged unfair trade practices in 60 countries, including China.

The discussions are seen as preparatory work for Trump’s state visit to China, scheduled for March 31, where he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Beijing has not officially confirmed the meeting, though Foreign Minister Wang Yi said days ago that “a schedule of high-level exchanges is already on the table” and that 2026 will be “a major year” for bilateral relations.

“Thanks to the relationship of mutual respect between President Trump and President Xi, economic and trade dialogue between the United States and China is moving forward,” Bessent said in a statement. He added that the negotiating team will continue working to ensure outcomes that “put American farmers, workers, and businesses first.”

Underlying tensions

The Paris meeting comes amid growing tensions. On Thursday, Washington announced trade investigations into industrial overcapacity involving 16 key partners, including China. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative also opened probes into 60 economies over alleged forced labor practices.

Beijing responded sharply, calling the investigations illegal, rejecting the forced labor accusations, and warning that it “reserves the right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights and interests.”

The moves are part of Trump’s effort to rebuild global tariff pressure after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled on Feb. 20 that his global tariffs were illegal. In response, the president imposed a 10% across-the-board tariff for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Bitcoin Takes a Breather From Middle East War, Climbs to One-Month High

Posted on March 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market is posting gains this Friday despite lingering caution over the conflict in the Middle East and key U.S. inflation data. In that context, Bitcoin is rising 2.6% to above $72,200, according to Binance.

Bitcoin is moving higher unexpectedly in reaction to Iran conflict.

Ethereum is also advancing, gaining 3.2% to $2,143, while other altcoins are moving higher as well. Among them, Solana stands out with a 3.9% increase.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Regulatory signals support Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s latest gains came largely after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced on Wednesday that they will collaborate to develop a more comprehensive regulatory framework for U.S. crypto markets.

At the same time, lawmakers in the United States Senate are attempting to revive the CLARITY Act, which aims to provide clearer oversight of digital assets.

The market reacted calmly to the latest U.S. inflation data, which showed annual inflation at 2.4% in February and 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations. Investors are now awaiting the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve, scheduled for release on Friday.

Oil and geopolitics remain key risks

The war in the Middle East has pushed energy prices to the forefront of global markets, fueling concerns about inflation just as central banks were beginning to consider easing monetary policy.

Tensions over oil supply and control of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes—have driven crude prices above $100 per barrel since the escalation began.

Despite this environment, Bitcoin has gained nearly 10% this week. The cryptocurrency has posted five consecutive green candles and remains above its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a technical signal suggesting the market is beginning to view the asset as structurally stronger even during periods of heightened global uncertainty.

Institutional demand also remains firm. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of more than $500 million this week, indicating that large investors continue accumulating the asset despite macroeconomic volatility.

Wall Street Sees Three Investment Opportunities if Oil Stabilizes

Posted on March 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Jim Cramer, a prominent voice on Wall Street, says the recent surge in oil prices has increased market volatility but could also create new investment opportunities if the rally in crude begins to stabilize.

Speaking during his program Mad Money on CNBC, the analyst noted that energy prices are currently one of the main forces shaping market sentiment. If the price of oil cools or stabilizes, several sectors that recently came under pressure could stage a strong rebound.

Three potential opportunities

1. Technology and artificial intelligence

The first opportunity lies in technology stocks, particularly companies tied to artificial intelligence and data centers. According to Cramer, many firms in this space have recently faced selling pressure due to fears that higher oil prices could fuel inflation and tighten financial conditions.

If energy prices stabilize, these companies could resume their upward trend, supported by the structural growth of the tech sector.

2. Financial stocks

The second theme involves financial companies. Banks and other financial institutions typically benefit when the economic outlook becomes more predictable.

A stabilization or decline in oil prices could ease recession concerns and support the financial sector, which is closely linked to economic activity and credit demand.

3. Consumer discretionary

The third opportunity is in Consumer discretionary sector, which includes companies tied to non-essential consumer spending.

Higher energy prices tend to squeeze household budgets and weigh on discretionary purchases. If oil costs moderate, that pressure could ease, potentially supporting a rebound in consumer spending and the companies that depend on it.

Wall Street Falls Up to 1.8% as Oil Prices Surge

Posted on March 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Wall Street’s main indexes plunged on Thursday, March 12, as surging oil prices rattled investors after global efforts to release record volumes of strategic crude reserves failed to calm concerns about tanker traffic disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran.

Wall Street Wobbles as Overvaluation Worries and Macro Uncertainty Hit Sentiment

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6% to 46,677.85 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% to 6,672.77, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.8% to 22,311.98.

[[SPX-graph]]

Strait of Hormuz shutdown weighs on markets

Investor confidence was hit by the effective halt of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

Container shipping companies, seeking to protect crews and struggling to secure insurance coverage, have largely suspended transit through the narrow waterway.

“The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed,” said Iran’s state outlet Islamic Republic News Agency, citing the country’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Commercial vessels in and around the strait have been targeted by attacks, intensifying fears of reduced oil flows. On Wednesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, which monitors shipping activity in the region, reported that a third vessel had been struck by an unidentified projectile, after two other ships were hit and set on fire off the coast of Iraq.

Following the incidents, Iraq and Oman decided to shut down several oil terminals.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump said on his social platform Truth Social that since the United States is the world’s largest oil producer, “when oil prices rise, we make a lot of money.”

The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz represents the largest supply disruption in oil market history. The Trump administration is reportedly considering a temporary waiver of the Jones Act, which regulates domestic shipping, to facilitate fuel transportation across the country.

Jobless claims decline

Thursday’s economic data showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 212,000 last week, below market expectations.

According to Michael Hanson of JPMorgan, initial claims have remained largely stable in recent weeks and within a relatively narrow range.

“Initial jobless claims have stayed close to the prior week’s level and, aside from a brief uptick in late January and early February, have remained below the average seen for most of 2025,” Hanson said.

He added that continuing claims have also fluctuated within a tight range this year, suggesting a labor market characterized by low hiring but also low unemployment, and indicating a healthier employment backdrop than the weak February nonfarm payrolls report might suggest.

Iran War Costs U.S. $11 Billion in First Six Days

Posted on March 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The war involving the United States and Iran cost more than $11.3 billion in its first six days, according to officials from the United States Department of Defense, commonly known as the Pentagon.

The US military may be ending the fight in Iran soon, and investors are hopeful.

Sources close to United States Congress said the estimate was shared with lawmakers during a closed-door briefing at the United States Capitol on Tuesday. Three people familiar with the meeting confirmed the figure.

However, the estimate does not include several operational costs, such as the buildup of military equipment and personnel before the first strikes. Lawmakers therefore expect the total cost to rise significantly as the conflict continues.

Other estimates of the war’s cost

While the Pentagon’s figure is considered the most official estimate so far, other institutions have produced their own calculations.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that the first 100 hours of the operation cost about $3.7 billion, or roughly $891.4 million per day. The think tank expects the daily cost to decline over time as the U.S. shifts to less expensive munitions and as Iranian drone and missile attacks decrease.

In line with that approach, the U.S. military has announced plans to rely more heavily on Joint Direct Attack Munition bombs, which are significantly cheaper than some of the precision weapons used at the start of the conflict.

This strategy contrasts with the position of Mitch McConnell, the senator from Kentucky who chairs the Senate subcommittee responsible for Pentagon funding and has repeatedly urged the U.S. government to increase spending on ammunition production.

Meanwhile, reports by The New York Times and The Washington Post cited defense officials telling Congress that the U.S. military spent $5.6 billion on munitions in just the first two days of the war.

Morgan Stanley Expects Fed to Delay Rate Cuts Amid Oil Shock

Posted on March 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to delay the start of its interest-rate cutting cycle as the surge in oil prices triggered by the conflict with Iran adds new uncertainty to the inflation outlook.

The bank still forecasts two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, likely at the Fed’s June and September meetings, but warns that the recent energy shock could push the timeline back. Under that scenario, the first cut could be postponed until September or even December, with the following move potentially slipping into 2027.

“If the Fed follows its historical behavior and chooses to look through oil-driven inflation pressures, we believe it could still begin easing sooner than the market currently expects,” said Michael Gapen in a report published Wednesday.

Oil shock complicates the outlook

The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has driven a sharp increase in oil prices and rattled financial markets, raising doubts about the timing of rate cuts.

For now, futures markets are pricing in only one 25-basis-point rate reduction this year, likely around the October meeting.

Although Donald Trump recently said the conflict could end “soon,” and the International Energy Agency announced an extraordinary release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, crude prices remain elevated. Brent Crude is trading around $90 per barrel, well above the roughly $70 level seen before the conflict began.

Inflation risks remain

According to Morgan Stanley, if oil prices fail to return to pre-war levels, the impact on headline inflation could become more pronounced in 2026. The bank also expects the U.S. unemployment rate to remain moderately higher through late 2028.

In that scenario, the Federal Reserve may need to balance its dual mandate—controlling inflation while supporting employment—while maintaining a more cautious and flexible monetary policy stance.

For the bank’s economists, current market pricing largely reflects uncertainty about the duration of the conflict and the difficulty of predicting how the Fed will respond until there is greater clarity in both economic data and geopolitical developments.

Mexican Peso Falls Against Safe-Haven Dollar as Oil Prices Surge

Posted on March 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso weakened against the US dollar in midweek trading as markets turned more cautious amid the war in the Middle East and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments.

The exchange rate closed the session at 17.6698 pesos per dollar, compared with 17.5903 the previous day, according to official data from Bank of Mexico. The move represented a loss of 7.95 centavos, or 0.45%, for the Mexican currency.

During the session, the dollar traded in a range between 17.7098 and 17.5273 pesos. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies and is calculated by Intercontinental Exchange, rose 0.35% to 99.28 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Oil prices back in focus

Iranian forces continue to maintain a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage for global crude flows. Iranian officials warned that oil prices could climb to $200 per barrel if the United States does not halt hostilities.

The US dollar strengthened as a safe-haven asset, as markets increasingly doubt the projection by Donald Trump that the conflict could end sooner than expected.

At the same time, West Texas Intermediate crude rose nearly 6% to $88.42 per barrel, highlighting the growing pressure in global energy markets.

The exchange rate was also pressured by uncertainty in the energy sector following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, analysts point to support around 17.50 pesos per dollar and short-term resistance near 17.70.

Inflation concerns in the U.S.

In the United States, the Consumer Price Index remained stable last month, with annual inflation at 2.4%, in line with expectations.

However, the data still does not reflect the potential impact of the war with Iran, meaning inflation could accelerate in March if energy prices continue rising.

Oil Heats Up: Brent Approaches $100 Again

Posted on March 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Crude oil prices surged again on Wednesday evening in international markets amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing fears of disruptions to global supply.

The price of Brent Crude rose 6.75% to $99.28 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 7.6% to $93.88, bringing both benchmarks close to their highest levels of the past year.

The rally came despite an announcement from the United States that it will release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to stabilize global oil supply.

The decision is part of a coordinated effort among members of the International Energy Agency, which agreed to release up to 400 million barrels collectively to offset potential supply disruptions, particularly following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that President Donald Trump authorized the release beginning next week. According to Wright, the drawdown will occur gradually over roughly 120 days.

[[USOIL-graph]]

The announced volume represents a significant portion of the U.S. reserve, which currently holds about 415 million barrels.

Wright also said the plan includes replenishing roughly 200 million barrels next year to rebuild part of the released stockpile, stressing that the operation will not impose additional costs on taxpayers.

However, the announcement failed to calm energy markets, which continue to reflect investor concerns about the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on global crude supplies.

Iran warns oil could reach $200

Officials in Iran warned that oil prices cannot be contained through what they called “artificial measures,” following the record release of strategic reserves coordinated by the IEA.

The warning came from Ebrahim Zolfagari, spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters, the body coordinating operations between Iran’s regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Zolfagari said the price of crude could climb as high as $200 per barrel if security conditions in the region continue to deteriorate.

“With the expansion of the war, you can expect a $200 barrel of oil. Oil prices depend on regional security, and you are the source of that insecurity,” he said in a video distributed by the state news agency Tasnim News Agency, referring to the conflict with the United States and Israel.

He also warned that Iran will not allow “a single liter of oil” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of Washington, Tel Aviv, or their allies, underscoring the growing military tensions in the region.

Goldman Sachs Forecasts “Extreme” Rebound in U.S. Stocks

Posted on March 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to Goldman Sachs, the current positioning of investors on S&P 500–linked markets could trigger an “extreme” upward move in U.S. equities if positive news emerges on the macroeconomic or geopolitical front.

John Flood, one of the bank’s leading trading specialists, warned that markets are currently navigating a period of heightened uncertainty driven by factors such as tensions in the Middle East, credit concerns, and questions about the economic impact of artificial intelligence.

Against this backdrop, many hedge funds have adopted defensive strategies that could end up amplifying market movements.

Why Goldman Sachs sees upside risk for equities

According to data from the bank’s prime brokerage team, hedge funds remain bullish on individual stocks but have simultaneously increased bearish hedges by shorting macro instruments such as exchange-traded funds and stock index futures.

Short positioning in these broad market instruments has reached its highest level since September 2022.

This positioning reflects investor caution amid global uncertainty. However, it also creates a potentially explosive scenario: if a favorable headline appears—such as geopolitical de-escalation—many traders could be forced to quickly close their short positions, triggering a sharp rally in stock indexes.

Flood noted that a positive development, such as signs of a resolution to the conflict with Iran, could drive an immediate 2% to 3% jump in equity indexes, largely fueled by short covering in macro products.

Goldman Sachs also highlighted that total hedge fund exposure—a metric combining long and short positions—is close to record levels at around 307%, suggesting that markets are highly leveraged and sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment.

A market with limited liquidity

Another factor that could magnify market swings is declining liquidity.

While daily trading volumes exceed 20 billion shares, overall market depth has fallen significantly. In S&P 500 futures, the volume available at the best bid-ask levels is currently around $4 million, well below the historical average of roughly $14 million.

According to Flood, the combination of high leverage and thinner liquidity means that even a single institutional trade can cause sharper price fluctuations.

For now, many traditional asset managers remain cautious and prefer to wait for greater clarity on the macroeconomic outlook. Still, the strategist noted that markets are hoping for signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the coming weeks.