Wall Street Rebounds on Middle East Peace Hopes

Posted on March 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Investors welcomed signs of a potential ceasefire, hoping for progress that could help restore maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street rebounds as Overvaluation Worries and Macro Uncertainty Hit Sentiment

Major Wall Street indexes closed higher on Wednesday, while oil prices declined again, as the administration of Donald Trump stepped up efforts to end the conflict with Iran—despite Tehran’s rejection of a ceasefire.

According to The New York Times, Washington sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war. Israeli media reported that the proposal would be discussed during a potential ceasefire. However, Tehran denied any negotiations, and Iran and Israel continued exchanging airstrikes on Wednesday.

Markets remained volatile throughout the week, swinging between gains and losses amid conflicting headlines around the conflict.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 46,428.57, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,594.90, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8% to 21,929.83.

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Brent crude prices fell 2.3% to $97.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined 1.5% to $91.29.

In precious metals, gold rose 2.3% to $4,535.50 per ounce, and silver gained 2.7% to $71.44. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note dropped 1.25% to 4.337%.

Focus shifts to a potential ceasefire

Wall Street had closed lower in the previous session as investors assessed the likelihood of a halt in hostilities between U.S. and Israeli forces and Iran. Fighting continued, while the United States deployed additional military units to the Middle East. Reports also suggested that some Gulf allies were urging Trump to continue the campaign.

At the same time, Trump maintained that negotiations with Iran were ongoing, despite repeated denials from Tehran—adding to market uncertainty. Iranian officials accused the president of using the prospect of peace talks to calm financial market volatility.

Sentiment improved notably in extended trading after Israeli media reported that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner were working on a mechanism to secure a ceasefire and enable negotiations around a 15-point plan. Details were later reported by Axios and The New York Times.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is demanding strict conditions for any ceasefire talks, including the closure of all U.S. bases in the Gulf and the imposition of fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Stagflation risks emerge

Traders are increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of a prolonged conflict—a sentiment reinforced by preliminary U.S. business activity data for March.

The S&P Global PMI fell to its lowest level in 11 months, signaling mounting pressure on overall growth amid rising prices linked to an energy shock stemming from the war.

Eurozone PMI readings also pointed to “warning signs of stagflation,” referring to a combination of persistent inflation and stagnating economic growth.

Christine Lagarde Leaves Door Open to Rate Hike

Posted on March 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Christine Lagarde signaled that the European Central Bank could raise interest rates again if rising oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict trigger a renewed inflation surge in the eurozone.

Christine Lagarde did seem worried about the economy on wednesday.

Lagarde stressed that the ECB must remain alert to early warning signs that volatility in global oil prices is feeding into broader inflation dynamics across the region.

Speaking in Frankfurt, she said the central bank would need to respond forcefully if inflation were to rise well above its 2% target for a prolonged period. However, she added that even a more moderate uptick could justify a “measured” adjustment in interest rates.

“If the crisis leads to a significant, though not overly persistent, deviation from our target, a moderate policy adjustment could be warranted,” Lagarde said.

“Failing to address such a deviation could pose a communication risk: the public may find it difficult to understand a reaction function that does not react,” she added.

Scenarios for Europe

The ECB kept rates unchanged last week but warned of mounting price pressures. While Lagarde did not explicitly align her remarks with a specific ECB scenario, her outlook closely resembles the bank’s “adverse” case.

Under that scenario, inflation would peak above 4% in the second half of this year before returning to target by mid-2027.

In a more severe scenario, inflation could exceed 6% early next year and remain above target for several years. By contrast, in the ECB’s baseline outlook, inflation is expected to average 2.6% this year, compared with 2% last year.

Ready to act

“If we foresee inflation deviating significantly and persistently from our target, the response must be forceful or sustained,” Lagarde said. “Otherwise, upward feedback mechanisms could take hold and the risk of de-anchoring would increase.”

She emphasized that the ECB stands ready to act “at any meeting” and, while it will wait for sufficient data before changing policy, it will not be “paralyzed by uncertainty.”

Lagarde concluded that the ECB must closely monitor early signals that the current crisis is feeding into broader inflation dynamics—including through wages and inflation expectations.

“As projected deviations from our inflation target become larger and more persistent, the need to act becomes more evident,” she said.

Middle East War Pushes U.S. Import Prices to Highest Level in Four Years

Posted on March 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Import costs in the United States rose 1.3% in February, marking the largest increase in nearly four years, as higher energy prices and tariffs added pressure to inflation.

The US military may be ending the fight in Iran soon, and investors are hopeful.

U.S. import prices posted their strongest monthly gain in almost four years in February, reinforcing concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation in the world’s largest economy.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the import price index climbed 1.3% month-over-month, driven by rising oil and natural gas costs. This marked the most significant increase since 2022, as energy prices regain prominence.

Excluding petroleum, import prices also recorded a notable 1.2% increase—the largest since January 2022—supported by higher costs for capital goods and consumer goods, excluding autos.

Meanwhile, export prices also rose sharply, increasing 1.5% in February, the biggest monthly gain since May 2022, highlighting broad-based price pressures across global trade.

On a year-over-year basis, the import price index excluding petroleum rose 2.8% compared with February 2025, reaching its highest level since October 2022. This suggests that a meaningful portion of rising costs—including those linked to tariffs—is being absorbed by U.S. importers.

Inflation in the United States stood at 2.4% year-over-year in February, broadly in line with market expectations, as was core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of the Consumer Price Index. This marks the latest reading before the full impact of the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict is reflected in the data.

The impact of the Middle East conflict

The backdrop is further complicated by geopolitical tensions. The war in the Middle East—particularly the conflict involving Iran—has driven energy prices higher, adding pressure to global cost structures.

This is compounded by the trade policy of Donald Trump, whose administration continues to maintain elevated tariffs on a range of imported goods. While these do not directly appear in the official index, they do affect the final costs faced by businesses.

Additionally, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar since early last year has made imported goods more expensive, while potentially improving the competitiveness of U.S. exports if the trend persists.

SpaceX Seeks $75 Billion Raise Ahead of June IPO

Posted on March 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

SpaceX, the space company founded by Elon Musk, is preparing to launch an initial public offering (IPO) in June that could raise as much as $75 billion—potentially the largest in history.

According to tech news outlet The Information, the company is expected to file its prospectus with securities regulators this week or next, citing a source familiar with the plans.

SpaceX—currently developing spacecraft aimed at reaching Mars—was valued at $1.25 trillion in early February following its merger with Musk’s artificial intelligence venture, xAI.

A record-breaking IPO in the making

In recent months, analysts had expected Musk to target a raise between $30 billion and $50 billion, given strong investor demand for technology companies. The planned IPO now appears set to far exceed the largest offering on record, when Saudi Aramco raised $25.6 billion in 2019.

SpaceX, which dominates the global launch market with its reusable rockets, is owned by Musk alongside several investment funds and technology firms, including Alphabet.

Analysts note that taking SpaceX public would require greater transparency from both the company and Musk—particularly regarding revenues—and could increase pressure to deliver consistent profitability as public-market scrutiny intensifies.

Strong rebound in markets

Against this backdrop, U.S. equities posted a strong rebound. The S&P 500 rose 0.93%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved higher, advancing 1%.

Among the top gainers were Hewlett Packard (+6.8%), Super Micro Computer (+5.6%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+5.39%).

On the downside, the biggest decliners included Generac (-6.7%), Seagate Technology (-7.56%), and Western Digital (-6.22%).

Wall Street Closes Lower on Private Credit Concerns

Posted on March 25, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

All three major New York stock indexes closed lower as concerns mounted that a potential energy crisis could reignite inflation.

U.S. equities ended Tuesday in negative territory after hopes of a Middle East de-escalation faded. Earlier reports suggesting renewed contacts between Washington and Tehran were denied by Iranian officials, who dismissed the possibility of any joint agreement.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18% to 46,123.72, the S&P 500 declined 0.33% to 6,559.62, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.84% to 21,761.89.

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PMI signals stagflation risks as Fed weighs in

Investor attention turned to preliminary U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March. The composite index slipped to 51.4 from 51.9 in February, marking its lowest level in 11 months.

According to Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the data point to a concerning mix of slowing growth and rising inflation following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Businesses are reporting weaker demand amid heightened uncertainty and increased cost-of-living pressures.

Last week, Jerome Powell said it remains too early to determine the full scope and duration of the conflict’s economic impact, though he warned that rising energy prices are likely to push headline inflation higher in the near term.

Meanwhile, a weekly U.S. labor market indicator from ADP showed job gains of 10,000—above expectations. However, an unstable labor market, combined with the risk of an energy-driven inflation shock linked to Iran, is becoming a key concern for Federal Reserve policymakers.

Private credit under pressure

Shares of U.S. private credit firms came under pressure after two major players restricted withdrawals from key funds. Apollo Global Management rose 0.7%, while Ares Management fell 1% after both firms limited redemptions following a surge in withdrawal requests.

Private credit has been under scrutiny since Blue Owl Capital restricted investor access to one of its funds in February.

Private credit refers to loans provided directly to companies by non-bank institutions—such as private funds or asset managers—bypassing traditional bank lending channels.

Notable movers

Shares of ImmunityBio plunged 22% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a warning letter citing false and misleading promotional materials related to its bladder cancer treatment ANKTIVA.
Klarna rose 4% after the digital payments provider announced it had doubled its funding line with Elliott Investment Management to $2 billion, expanding the partnership to support up to $17 billion in U.S. loan originations.
Meanwhile, Hesai Group dropped 14% despite reporting stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results, after issuing first-quarter revenue guidance below analysts’ estimates.

Global Markets Mixed as Gold Rises and Oil Holds Below $100

Posted on March 24, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%, leading losses in New York, as markets showed renewed skepticism over negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

From Crisis Rally to Pullback: Oil Markets React to Global Tensions

Global equities traded mixed on Tuesday, while precious metals moved higher and oil hovered just below $100, as investors questioned the likelihood of a de-escalation in the Middle East—despite Donald Trump delaying planned strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure.

In this context, the tech-heavy Nasdaq led declines, dropping 0.8%, followed by the S&P 500 (-0.4%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%). In contrast, the Russell 2000 reversed earlier losses to gain 0.5%.

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In recent hours, Trump postponed the offensive, citing “productive talks” with Iranian officials on Monday. However, Tehran denied that any negotiations with the United States are taking place. Israeli officials also indicated that while Trump is seeking a deal, the chances of success remain low, according to Reuters.

This follows a strong rally on Monday, when major U.S. indexes rose more than 1%—their largest daily gain since February 6. However, that momentum faded as uncertainty surrounding the conflict persisted.

“It’s like whiplash. You wake up every morning wondering what comes next. Investors still face a wide range of possible outcomes, and much depends on timing,” said Christopher O’Keefe, managing director and lead portfolio manager at Logan Capital Management.

Europe and Asia diverge

In Europe, major indexes closed mixed: the Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany’s DAX both slipped 0.1%, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.7%.

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In Asia, markets posted solid gains. South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 2.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.8%, Shanghai advanced 1.8%, and Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.4%.

Gold rises as oil remains below $100

Precious metals moved higher despite equity weakness. June gold futures rose 1.5% to $4,504.90 per ounce, while May silver added 0.3% to $71.45. Platinum surged 3.1%, and palladium gained 0.9%.

The Middle East conflict has driven oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and complicating the outlook for central banks. The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance last week and now projects just one rate cut in 2026.

U.S. crude West Texas Intermediate rose 0.3% to $88.36 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped 0.1% to $96.06, remaining below the $100 threshold.

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In line with this shift, money markets are no longer pricing in rate cuts this year, compared with expectations of two cuts before the conflict escalated. Expectations for rate hikes briefly increased last week amid rising tensions but quickly faded following Trump’s remarks on Monday, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Wall Street Falls on Middle East Uncertainty as Oil Nears $100

Posted on March 24, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Nasdaq Composite is leading losses in New York, as markets grow increasingly skeptical about negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

Markets are declining even now that Trump has announced peace talks with Iran.

Major Wall Street indexes are trading lower this Tuesday, as renewed uncertainty over a potential de-escalation in the Middle East weighs on sentiment, despite Donald Trump delaying planned strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure.

In this context, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 0.7%, followed by the S&P 500 (-0.3%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%). The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap U.S. companies, is also in negative territory, falling 0.5%.

In recent hours, Trump postponed the offensive, citing “productive talks” with Iranian officials on Monday. However, Tehran denied that any negotiations with the United States are taking place. Israeli officials also suggested that while Trump is seeking a deal with Iran, the chances of successful talks remain low, according to Reuters.

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This backdrop comes after U.S. equities rallied more than 1% on Monday—their strongest daily gain since February 6. However, momentum faded as uncertainty surrounding the conflict persisted. “It’s like whiplash. You wake up every morning wondering what comes next. Investors are still facing a wide range of possible outcomes, and much depends on timing,” said Christopher O’Keefe, managing director and lead portfolio manager at Logan Capital Management.

Precious metals rise as oil approaches $100

The decline in equities has been accompanied by gains in precious metals. June gold futures are up 0.3% to $4,449.81 per ounce, while May silver rises 1% to $70.045 per ounce. Platinum is also higher (+1.3%), while palladium slips 0.6%.

The Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and complicating the outlook for central banks. The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance last week and now projects just one rate cut in 2026.

U.S. crude West Texas Intermediate is up 3.3% on the session at $90.9 per barrel, while Brent crude rises 2.5% to $98.4.

In line with this shift, money markets are no longer pricing in rate cuts for this year, compared with expectations of two cuts prior to the escalation of the conflict. Expectations for rate hikes briefly increased last week amid rising tensions but quickly faded following Trump’s remarks on Monday, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000 as Altcoins Drop Up to 2.3%

Posted on March 24, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The crypto market remains focused on potential developments surrounding U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran, as well as upcoming statements from Donald Trump regarding a possible de-escalation in the Middle East.

Bitcoin is having trouble moving higher after achieving $71K.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has fallen below the $70,000 threshold, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty.

The leading cryptocurrency is down 0.8% to $69,825.67, while altcoins are posting broader losses of up to 2.3%, led by XRP, which trades at $1.40. Meanwhile, Ethereum is down 0.1%, holding at $2,134.47.

Among other major tokens, BNB, the fourth-largest by market capitalization, declines 1.2% to $630.47. Solana slips 0.4% to $89.67, while memecoin Dogecoin falls 0.7% to $0.09338.

Elsewhere, Cardano drops 0.3% to $0.2607, extending its weekly loss to 9.1%. In contrast, Tron rises 1.4% to $0.3102 after announcing an expansion of its artificial intelligence fund from $100 million to $1 billion.

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SEC and CFTC classify crypto as “digital commodities”

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently classified Bitcoin and 15 other cryptocurrencies as “digital commodities,” bringing an end to years of legal ambiguity and jurisdictional disputes in the United States.

Under this classification, these assets fall primarily under the oversight of the CFTC rather than the SEC, exempting them from the stricter registration requirements typically applied to securities such as stocks and bonds.

According to the document, cryptocurrencies will be considered “digital commodities” when their value derives from the programmed operation of a functional system, as well as from supply and demand dynamics.

Wall Street Closes Higher as Oil Falls on Signs of Middle East De-escalation

Posted on March 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Comments from Donald Trump were the key driver of the session, although the initial momentum faded after a denial from Iranian authorities.

Middle East fighting has hurt the stock market.

U.S. equities closed higher on Monday, March 23, extending gains throughout the session as expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East lifted global markets.

Wall Street rallied sharply while oil prices declined following remarks by Trump, who said the United States and Iran had held talks and that there was a “very serious chance of reaching a deal.” However, investor optimism cooled after Tehran denied the claims.

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.38% to 46,208.53, the S&P 500 gained 1.33% to 6,586.77, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.38% to 21,946.76.

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Genuine progress or market signal?

In a social media post, Trump said that talks over the past two days aimed at reaching a “complete and definitive solution” to hostilities had been “productive.”

“Based on the tone of these discussions,” which are set to continue throughout the week, Trump said he had ordered the Pentagon to “delay all military strikes” on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

“We have a very serious chance of reaching a deal. That guarantees nothing—we are in the process of trying to reach one… but again, I guarantee nothing,” he told reporters.

Asked about the objective of the talks, Trump said he does not want to “see any nuclear bomb.” However, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had not engaged in direct talks with the United States.

A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry dismissed claims of any dialogue, stating that the country’s position on the Strait of Hormuz and the “conditions to end the war remain unchanged,” according to state outlets.

The day’s rally suggests investors are eager for any catalyst to re-enter the market, revive optimism, and move past this phase of the Trump 2.0 era.

War, the Fed, and the rate outlook

Stephen Miran said Monday that the Federal Reserve should avoid adjusting monetary policy based on short-term developments tied to the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

“We should wait for the full picture before materially changing our outlook,” Miran said in an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance. “It’s still too early to have a clear view of what this will look like in 12 months.”

The Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices significantly higher, creating potential inflationary pressure while weighing on economic growth and the labor market.

Despite acknowledging the risk that sustained elevated oil prices could spill over into broader goods and services, Miran said his pre-war outlook of four rate cuts this year remains unchanged.

Berkshire Hathaway Bets on Tech and AI

Posted on March 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Although Warren Buffett avoided technology stocks for years, the sector’s rapid growth has left Berkshire Hathaway with significant indirect exposure to artificial intelligence.

NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 19: Philanthropist Warren Buffett is joined onstage by 24 other philanthropist and influential business people featured on the Forbes list of 100 Greatest Business Minds during the Forbes Media Centennial Celebration at Pier 60 on September 19, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Daniel Zuchnik/WireImage)

Buffett’s retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of 2025 marked the close of a historic era on Wall Street. The challenge now falls to Greg Abel, who inherits not only leadership of the conglomerate but also a portfolio deeply influenced by AI-driven trends.

After nearly six decades at the helm, Buffett leaves behind a legacy of more than 6,000,000% cumulative returns in Class A shares, cementing his status as one of the most successful investors of all time.

Despite his long-standing reluctance toward tech, the sector’s expansion ultimately positioned Berkshire with substantial indirect exposure to AI.

Berkshire’s AI-driven exposure

The company’s total equity portfolio currently stands at დაახლოებით $313 billion, with roughly $64 billion concentrated in three tech giants: Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon.

The largest bet is on Apple, with about $57.9 billion invested, making it Berkshire’s top holding. Historically viewed by Buffett as a consumer company, its future is increasingly tied to artificial intelligence.

In 2024, Apple launched “Apple Intelligence,” integrating generative AI capabilities into its devices, from automated image editing to more advanced virtual assistants. Under the leadership of Tim Cook, the company is also expanding its subscription-based services, which offer higher margins and more stable revenue streams.

A tech-heavy podium

In second place is Alphabet, with a stake of approximately $5.5 billion, following an initial $4.3 billion investment in 2025. While the company dominates online search, the focus has shifted toward Google Cloud, its cloud computing division, which posted 48% year-over-year growth in a recent quarter.

This segment, driven by AI solutions and large language models, delivers higher margins than traditional advertising. The company has also repurchased $346 billion in shares since 2016, enhancing shareholder value.

Finally, Amazon represents a smaller position, at $490 million, after a significant reduction carried out by Buffett prior to his retirement.

Taken together, these figures show that—even without an initial intention—Buffett has left his successor with a portfolio aligned with one of the most transformative trends in the market. The key question now is whether Abel will maintain this exposure to artificial intelligence or pivot toward new opportunities, as technology continues to reshape the future of investing.