China to Further Diversify Energy Imports to Tackle Emergencies

Posted on April 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

China will continue to diversify its energy imports and expand strategic reserves to strengthen its ability to respond to potential supply shocks, following disruptions caused by the war involving Iran.

The announcement was made on Friday by Wang Changlin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC), who said the country is preparing for “emergency scenarios” amid heightened global volatility.

Global energy supply has been significantly disrupted since the conflict began on February 28, with hundreds of tankers and vessels stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that previously handled roughly 20% of global oil shipments.

Despite this, China’s energy markets have remained stable, “thanks to government measures to safeguard supply,” Wang said during a press briefing.

Boosting reserves and domestic output

China has already adjusted domestic fuel price caps three times since the conflict began. Retail gasoline prices have increased by 2,275 yuan ($333) per ton, while diesel prices have risen by 2,185 yuan per ton.

However, the second and third adjustments were limited to roughly half the usual increase under the country’s pricing mechanism, reflecting efforts to cushion the impact on consumers.

Authorities also plan to ramp up domestic production and further expand energy reserves to enhance supply security.

China produced 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last year, a record level. Production has continued to rise in 2026, reaching a monthly record of 4.44 million bpd, even as imports declined on a year-on-year basis in March.

Stronger ties with Russia

Separately, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of China’s relationship with Russia, describing it as “valuable” amid a global environment marked by “change and turmoil.”

During a meeting in Beijing with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Xi highlighted the stability and predictability of bilateral ties, contrasting them with broader global uncertainty.

He also called for deeper coordination between the two countries and urged officials to implement the agreements reached with President Vladimir Putin, reinforcing the strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow.

Bitcoin Rises Nearly 7% on the Week, Hits 2.5-Month High

Posted on April 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market is posting modest gains this Friday, with investor sentiment supported by a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, as attention remains focused on developments in the Middle East conflict.

Bitcoin surges amid news in the Strait of Hormuz.

In this context, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3.3% to $77,500, according to Binance. On a weekly basis, the leading cryptocurrency has gained 6.3%, reaching its highest level in two and a half months.

Ethereum (ETH) is following a similar trend, rising 3.8% to $2,430. Meanwhile, altcoins have pared earlier gains of up to 5% and are now trading with more moderate advances, led by XRP (+2.2%), BNB (+1.6%), and Dogecoin (+1.6%).

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Strait of Hormuz reopens amid ongoing tensions

Crypto markets extended gains after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. According to authorities in Tehran, the move follows the temporary halt in hostilities in Lebanon, set to last 10 days.

After welcoming the reopening, U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized that U.S. restrictions on Iranian ports will remain in place until a lasting peace agreement is reached.

Trump also indicated that Washington and Tehran are expected to hold a new round of negotiations over the weekend, adding that “there is a strong chance of a deal.”

Oil Plunges Nearly 12% as Strait of Hormuz Reopens; Wall Street Hits Fresh Records

Posted on April 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent U.S. equities sharply higher on Friday, with all three major benchmarks closing in positive territory.

The Strait of Hormuz no longer remains blocked.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite notched fresh record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 1,000 points. Meanwhile, oil prices tumbled as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted investor sentiment.

The Dow rose 1.79% to 49,447.92, the S&P 500 gained 1.19% to 7,125.36, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.52% to 24,468.48.

[[SPX-graph]]

Strait of Hormuz reopening lifts markets

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the vital shipping route would be fully open to commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire period.

The move followed a 10-day ceasefire announcement by Donald Trump between Israel and Lebanon. Ongoing Israeli strikes against Hezbollah targets had previously complicated negotiations involving Iran and the United States.

Trump said the key maritime chokepoint was now “fully open,” though he noted that U.S. restrictions on vessels linked to Iran remain in place until a broader agreement is finalized.

The earlier closure of the strait had fueled fears of a global inflation shock and expectations that central banks would keep interest rates higher for longer. However, with oil prices falling, market expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with traders now pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a cut by December.

Oil prices tumble

“The full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, a surge in equities, and investor euphoria,” said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management.

Brent crude futures fell 10.4% to $89.02 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude dropped 12.1% to $83.19 per barrel.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Hopes for a broader deal

Optimism was also supported by a report from Axios indicating that Washington and Tehran are discussing a three-page plan to end the conflict, potentially involving the release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for nuclear concessions.

However, Trump later told Bloomberg that Iran had agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear program, adding that no frozen funds would be released.

Record highs and earnings focus

Hopes for a lasting de-escalation have fueled a strong weekly rally, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to repeated record closes. The rebound underscores a remarkable recovery from March’s selloff, triggered by the initial outbreak of hostilities.

Investors are now turning their attention to the first-quarter earnings season, with early results pointing to a resilient U.S. economy despite the energy shock linked to the conflict with Iran.

Wall Street Says Goodbye to Mark Mobius

Posted on April 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Under the leadership of Mark Mobius, Templeton Emerging Markets Group grew to manage more than $40 billion invested across nearly 70 countries.

The financial world said goodbye on Thursday to Mobius, one of the most influential investors of recent decades and a key figure in establishing emerging markets as a global asset class. He passed away at the age of 89, leaving behind a legacy that reshaped how Wall Street—and global investors—view developing economies.

Mobius was not only a successful fund manager but, above all, a pioneer. For more than 30 years, he led the Templeton Emerging Markets Group within Franklin Templeton, where he helped build one of the first funds dedicated exclusively to emerging markets.

Under his leadership, assets under management expanded from roughly $100 million to over $40 billion, spanning investments in about 70 countries.

His impact was so profound that he earned two nicknames that define his career: the “Indiana Jones of emerging markets” and, more importantly, the “father of emerging markets.” Both reflect not only his adventurous approach but also his foundational role in shaping this segment of the global financial system.

From Wall Street to the world

During the 1980s and 1990s, investing in countries such as Brazil, India or Indonesia was widely seen as too risky for international capital. Economies were volatile, information scarce, and regulatory frameworks often unreliable.

Mobius was among the first to recognize a structural opportunity: fast economic growth, young populations, and undervalued markets.

Unlike many investors, he did not analyze these countries from a desk in New York or London. Over his career, he traveled to more than 100 countries, visiting factories, meeting government officials, and speaking directly with local business leaders.

This hands-on approach proved critical in identifying opportunities ahead of the broader market.

In his view, the most unstable markets were often the most attractive—provided they were properly understood. That perspective helped channel billions of dollars into economies that had previously been off the radar of major institutional investors.

A lasting legacy

Mobius also played a central role in legitimizing “emerging markets” as a distinct investment category. Before his influence, these economies were largely considered peripheral. Thanks in part to his work, they became a core component of global portfolios.

Throughout his career, he also left his mark as an author and educator, writing several books that combined travel experiences with investment strategies, helping introduce a new generation to emerging markets investing.

Even after formally retiring in 2018, Mobius remained active—founding his own firm and continuing to engage in the global debate on opportunities across developing economies.

Citigroup Upgrades U.S. Stocks and Downgrades Emerging Markets

Posted on April 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Strategists at Citigroup upgraded their rating on U.S. equities, arguing that the current environment of heightened geopolitical uncertainty favors a rotation toward defensive and higher-quality assets.

At the same time, the bank downgraded emerging markets to neutral, citing their vulnerability to energy shocks and a stronger U.S. dollar.

The move, led by strategist Beata Manthey, reflects a tactical adjustment in the bank’s global asset allocation. Citi cut its recommendation on emerging-market equities from overweight to neutral, pointing to risks linked to volatility in global energy prices amid the war in the Middle East and the appreciation of the U.S. currency in international markets.

Strategists acknowledged that a potential peace agreement between Washington and Iran could improve investor confidence. However, they warned that returning to an “ideal” pro-cyclical macroeconomic and trade environment may prove difficult, highlighting the limits of any overly optimistic scenario.

Optimism around the S&P 500

Citi’s shift aligns with a broader trend already highlighted by firms such as BlackRock and Morgan Stanley, which in recent weeks have also pointed to the relative resilience of the U.S. market compared with other regions.

Against that backdrop, the S&P 500 has reached record highs, supported by a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran as well as a solid start to the corporate earnings season.

[[SPX-graph]]

Citi described the upgrade as “tactical,” noting that visibility on the macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook remains limited. Even so, the bank projects the S&P 500 could reach 7,700 points by the end of the year, implying roughly 12% upside from Monday’s close.

From a sector perspective, Citi upgraded global materials to overweight and downgraded communication services to underweight. The bank also warned that the growing dominance of the technology sector in global corporate earnings complicates equity market prospects in an environment already shaped by the Middle East conflict.

China Economy Grows 5% Year-on-Year in Q1, Beating Forecasts

Posted on April 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

China’s economy expanded 5% year-on-year in the first quarter, according to official data released Thursday, exceeding the 4.8% growth forecast by economists surveyed by Agence France-Presse.

Will tariffs hamper China's economic growth? — Will tariffs hamper China’s economic growth?

The figures come at a time when the global economy is being affected by the war in the Middle East.

China’s economy had grown 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, retail sales—China’s main gauge of consumer demand—slowed more than expected in March, rising only 1.7% from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected retail sales to increase 2.4%. Industrial production, however, rose 5.7% year-on-year in March, above the 5.3% forecast, though still below the 6.3% growth recorded in January and February.

China warns of a “complex and volatile” environment

Mao Shengyong, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, warned that the international environment will remain “complex and volatile” in the coming period, citing growing uncertainty and hard-to-predict risks, particularly stemming from the war involving Iran and its effects on financial markets and the global outlook.

Similarly, Zhou Hao, analyst at Guotai Haitong Securities, said the manufacturing sector remains a key pillar of short-term growth, though he expects policymakers to increasingly focus on boosting domestic demand and reflation.

The challenge for authorities remains significant: even China is not immune to rising energy and transportation costs, which are eroding purchasing power and weighing on economic momentum.

From the private sector, Peng Xin, director of an industrial firm in southern China, described the impact of the crisis. Volatility in energy prices has turned each transaction into a new negotiation, while customers are accelerating purchases and building inventories in anticipation of further price increases.

“If someone used to buy five tons, now they may want ten,” he said, noting a temporary surge in production and shipments.

Exports slow but remain strong for the quarter

On the external front, exports grew just 2.5% year-on-year in March, a sharp slowdown from the 21.8% surge recorded in January–February, reflecting higher energy and transport costs as well as weaker global demand.

However, exports rose 14.7% year-on-year for the entire quarter, far exceeding the growth recorded in 2025.

For many analysts, this highlights a two-speed economy: a resilient export sector alongside still-weak domestic demand.

At the same time, new signs of pressure are emerging. Factory-gate prices rose in March for the first time in more than three years, suggesting that higher energy costs are beginning to filter through the economy and squeeze corporate margins.

On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 1.3% between January and March, in line with forecasts, while fixed-asset investment slowed to 1.7%, indicating some moderation after the earlier boost from infrastructure spending.

Hedge Funds Head for Best Month in Over a Decade

Posted on April 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Global Hedge Funds are on track to post their strongest monthly performance in more than a decade, rebounding sharply from the market correction triggered in March by the escalation of the conflict with Iran.

Wall Street Climbs to Records, Fed Cut Bets Grow on Jobs Revision

According to a quarterly report on the hedge fund industry by Goldman Sachs, managers running equity long/short strategies had gained 7.7% month-to-date as of Tuesday, putting them on course for their best monthly result since early 2016, when the bank began tracking the data.

Long/short strategies combine long positions in assets expected to rise with short positions in assets expected to fall, allowing managers to capture opportunities in both bullish and bearish market environments.

So far in 2026, these funds have generated returns of about 6.7%, with a clear advantage for those focused on Asia and China, regions that have recently outperformed other global markets.

Rebound after March’s selloff

The report notes that the broader hedge fund industry, across all strategies, delivered average gains of 1.6% in the first quarter, despite a 1.8% decline in March, when geopolitical volatility hit macro traders particularly hard.

During that period, the war in the Middle East and the surge in oil prices triggered sharp moves in bonds, equities and currencies, affecting multiple investment strategies. However, the swift recovery that followed helped restore returns and revive risk appetite across parts of the market.

Record inflows and rising dispersion

Goldman Sachs also highlighted that multi-sector equity long/short funds recorded their largest capital inflows since 2022 during the quarter.

The data suggests that institutional investors and limited partners continue to favor active managers even in a challenging environment marked by recent volatility.

Another notable development was the increase in performance dispersion among individual funds, which reached a three-year high in March. This widening gap between winners and losers is typical of more volatile markets with less uniform direction.

Where returns were strongest

Among the top-performing strategies in the quarter were market-neutral funds, which gained 10.3%. These vehicles aim to minimize exposure to the overall direction of the market while capturing relative value opportunities between assets.

Strong results were also recorded by healthcare-focused funds, which delivered returns of 33.6%, and Asia-focused funds, which rose 28.1%.

According to Goldman Sachs, much of these gains came from “alpha” generation—profits derived from asset selection and trading skill rather than simply from the broader market rally.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Reach Record Highs on U.S.–Iran Talks

Posted on April 15, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reached new record highs on Wednesday, April 15, as investors grew more optimistic about renewed negotiations between the United States and Iran, alongside a fresh batch of corporate earnings.

Despite recent volatility caused by the war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. equities maintained their broader upward momentum.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% to 48,463.72 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.8% to 7,022.81, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.6% to 24,016.02.

[[SPX-graph]]

Trump says war with Iran may be nearing its end

Donald Trump suggested that the conflict between the United States and Iran could be approaching an end, even as the U.S. military said an ongoing naval blockade continues to restrict maritime traffic to and from Iran.

Speaking to Sky News in the United Kingdom, Trump said it was “very possible” that a permanent ceasefire agreement could be reached before the visit of King Charles III later this month.

Earlier, Trump told Fox News that the conflict—triggered by joint attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran in late February—was “close to ending.”

According to a report by New York Post, the U.S. president expects ceasefire talks between Washington and Tehran to resume within the next two days following the first round of negotiations held in Pakistan last weekend.

Trump repeatedly argued that the fighting is nearing its conclusion and that the United States has achieved its objectives in Iran, including curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and weakening its military capabilities, claims largely rejected by Iran.

Meanwhile, Associated Press reported that mediators are making progress toward extending the ceasefire, with both sides expected to return to the negotiating table soon.

According to the report, mediators are working on compromises around three major sticking points: Iran’s nuclear program, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and war compensation.

Oil prices fluctuated on Wednesday but remained well below the $100-per-barrel threshold, as traders closely monitored supply flows through the Persian Gulf, particularly the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Key stock movers

Shares of Tesla surged 7.6% after CEO Elon Musk announced that the company’s chip design team had completed the “tape-out” of its AI5 chip.
The news also lifted several quantum computing stocks. D-Wave Quantum jumped 22.6%, Infleqtion rose 6.2%, Rigetti Computing advanced 12.2%, and Quantum Computing Inc. gained 16%.
Nike shares climbed 1.9% following insider purchases by Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, and Nike’s own CEO Elliott Hill.
Meanwhile, Papa John’s International rose 5.6% after a report by Reuters indicated that the pizza chain is in advanced talks over a potential acquisition that could take the company private.

Bank of Japan Weighs Interest Rate Hike to 31-Year High

Posted on April 15, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is approaching its upcoming two-day policy meeting amid heightened uncertainty, as the war in the Middle East clouds the outlook for Japan’s economy—particularly given the country’s heavy reliance on energy imports that transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Until recently, investors widely expected the central bank to raise interest rates to 1%, which would mark the highest level in 31 years. However, recent comments from BoJ officials have cooled those expectations.

BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said Friday that the central bank will calibrate monetary policy based on the scale and duration of the economic impact caused by the Middle East conflict. He emphasized the need to remain vigilant about the risk of stagflation.

Meanwhile, remarks on Monday from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda underscored the uncertainty surrounding the potential trajectory of the conflict. Ueda offered no clear signals of an imminent rate hike, which contrasts with previous tightening moves, when the governor hinted at policy changes weeks in advance.

Shifting forecasts

Still, policymakers may revise their inflation outlook upward during the BoJ’s policy meeting scheduled for April 27–28, as oil prices have surged roughly 50% since the start of the conflict, according to Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter.

At the same time, officials could lower their economic growth projections, reflecting the vulnerability of Japan’s economy to higher energy costs.

IMF calls for gradual tightening

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Bank of Japan to continue gradually raising interest rates, though at a slightly faster pace than projected six months ago, according to its latest World Economic Outlook.

The IMF forecasts that inflation in Japan will moderate this year and converge toward the BoJ’s 2% target by the end of 2027, as food and commodity prices ease.

It also expects the policy rate to gradually rise toward a neutral level of around 1.5%, slightly faster than projected in October 2025.

BlackRock’s Assets Under Management Jump 20% to $14 Trillion

Posted on April 15, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The asset management giant BlackRock, led by Larry Fink, once again demonstrated its strength in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by a key metric behind its performance: record assets under management (AUM).

BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world.

The firm ended the quarter with approximately $13.9 trillion in AUM, a figure 20% higher than the same period a year earlier.

The key factor behind this growth was not only scale but also strong capital inflows. During the quarter, the company reported net inflows of about $130 billion, one of the highest levels in recent years.

These inflows partially offset the negative impact of market fluctuations, showing that even during periods of uncertainty, global capital tends to concentrate in the largest asset managers.

ETF business drives growth

Within total AUM, the main engine was the ETF business through iShares, which recorded a record quarter of inflows.

This segment is crucial because it combines scale, low costs and high liquidity, making it one of the most widely used entry points for both institutional and retail investors.

At the same time, BlackRock continues to expand its diversification strategy. Private market assets also posted inflows of roughly $9 billion, reinforcing the firm’s push into higher-margin areas such as private credit and infrastructure.

The combination of traditional and alternative assets allows the company to sustain AUM growth even in challenging market environments.

A resilient business model

Growth in assets is not only a matter of volume but also of business model. BlackRock generates most of its revenue through fees on managed assets, meaning that higher AUM translates directly into greater recurring and predictable income.

Indeed, the company reported a 27% increase in revenue and a 17% rise in profits, driven by higher management fees and performance fees. Revenue reached $6.7 billion, while net income totaled about $2.07 billion.

“Our results tell a story that goes beyond a single quarter,” Fink said. “They reflect a business with growing momentum, strong client relationships and a platform designed to grow sustainably across different market environments.”

“BlackRock operates at scale across public markets, private markets and technology. That combination is becoming increasingly valuable. Capital is on the move as investors reassess market fundamentals and provider relationships, and BlackRock is positioned as a trusted destination,” he added.

Following the announcement, BlackRock shares rose about 3% on the New York Stock Exchange.