Bitcoin Pulls Back to $68,000 After Key U.S. Jobs Data Is Released

Posted on February 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

As investors grow increasingly concerned about the risk of a new “crypto winter,” a series of U.S. economic reports could help drive a rebound in the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin is in danger of an extreme drop.

The crypto market is posting broad-based declines. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.7% at $67,924, a modest pullback after briefly touching $70,000 on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is correcting by 1.5% to $1,973, and major altcoins are following the same trend: Solana (SOL) is down 2.5%, while Ripple (XRP) slips 0.4%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Crypto Markets Focus on U.S. Jobs Data and the Fed’s Next Move

Following Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off — with prices plunging nearly 40% in just eight months — new U.S. employment data showed continued labor market resilience. Payroll growth accelerated in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, reinforcing the picture of economic stability.

Markets have scaled back expectations for aggressive rate cuts, although they still anticipate a first 25-basis-point cut in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Attention now turns to the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Friday, which could further shape expectations for monetary policy.

In this context, favorable data could support a more cautious and gradual approach by the Federal Reserve (Fed) toward interest rate cuts, at least until June, following three consecutive reductions. While Bitcoin typically benefits from lower interest rates — which boost risk appetite — its current fragility appears to stem mainly from tight liquidity conditions, weakening institutional participation, and fading speculative interest.

Mexican Peso Posts Marginal Decline Against the Dollar After U.S. Jobs Data

Posted on February 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso ended the session virtually unchanged, as traders digested stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data.

The Mexican peso edged marginally lower against the dollar in midweek trading. The local currency closed the session practically flat, as market participants absorbed U.S. labor market figures that came in well above expectations.

The exchange rate ended the day at 17.1856 pesos per dollar. Compared with yesterday’s close of 17.1804, according to official Banco de México (Banxico) data, this represented a marginal loss of 0.03% for the peso—less than one cent.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.2690 and a low of 17.1307 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) from the Intercontinental Exchange, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was flat at 96.86 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Intraday volatility

At the open, the exchange rate reached a low of 17.1307. Analysts linked this initial move to domestic data, as industrial activity showed an unexpected increase in December, providing short-term support for the peso.

However, this trend reversed after reports emerged that U.S. President Donald Trump had privately said he was considering whether the United States should withdraw from the USMCA (T-MEC) trade agreement. In addition, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released this morning came in much stronger than expected. The initial reaction in the exchange rate was a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which was reflected in the upper end of the day’s trading range.

U.S. rate expectations

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 jobs last month, far above the 70,000 expected by analysts. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, reinforcing signals of economic strength.

The solid labor data follow figures showing that U.S. retail sales were flat in December. In this context, the market now expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate adjustments in June, according to FedWatch.

Weak retail sales may be interpreted as temporary noise, while wage pressures continue to sustain the Fed’s cautious stance. A strong labor market reinforces the idea that lower interest rates may take longer to arrive.

Resilience of the Mexican peso

At the start of the year, the peso has shown notable resilience, appreciating to levels as strong as 17.10 per dollar and holding within a relatively narrow range, despite expectations that the dollar could find some support from a more measured Fed policy amid persistent risks.

A scenario of stability within a 17.10–17.25 range appears most likely, provided the market fully digests the strength of U.S. employment data and Friday’s inflation report does not deliver upside surprises.

U.S. Jobs Data Beats Expectations and Shifts Outlook for Rate Cuts

Posted on February 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Job creation doubled analysts’ estimates, effectively ruling out any changes in monetary policy during the first months of the year.

US jobs report came in more than positive.

The U.S. labor market started 2026 stronger than expected, with January employment growth coming in well above Wall Street forecasts. The unemployment rate also declined, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not deliver new rate cuts at least until Kevin Warsh takes office.

Job creation rose by 130,000 positions in the first month of the year, double the 65,000 expected by private forecasts. December figures were slightly revised down to 48,000 from 50,000. The surprise in employment growth came from the private sector, which generated 172,000 jobs in January, far above the 68,000 expected and the 64,000 recorded in December.

Breaking down job growth by sector, analysts at the Schwab Center for Financial Research highlighted that the largest gains were seen in healthcare and social assistance, “continuing a trend in which employment growth in the services sector outpaces that of goods production.” They also noted that “federal government employment fell sharply, as did employment in financial activities.” Other sectors showed limited changes, “although manufacturing rebounded slightly for the first time since November 2024.”

This increase in job creation pushed the unemployment rate down from 4.4% to 4.3%, even as the labor force participation rate rose from 62.4% to 62.5%, reinforcing the perception of a resilient labor market.

Rate cuts pushed further out

“The market is now aggressively pricing out the possibility of rate cuts this year after the jobs report,” said Kevin Gordon, Director of Macroeconomic Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center.

“The Fed appears to be right in saying that some stabilization has occurred in the unemployment rate. The three-month average of nonfarm payroll growth rose to 73,000 in January, the highest level since February 2025,” he added.

Markets are now pricing in the next 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed for July, compared with June expectations prior to the report. Attention now shifts to Friday’s January inflation report, which is expected to show 2.5% year-on-year inflation and 0.3% month-on-month growth.

China Plans Retaliation Against France If It Backs EU Tariffs

Posted on February 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Asian giant is weighing potential countermeasures in response to an unprecedented tariff proposal by the European bloc.

Trade war between the West and China is heating up.

China could launch investigations into French wine exports or even impose “reciprocal tariffs” on products from the European Union (EU) if France pushes for the activation of tariffs on Chinese goods, according to a social media account affiliated with China’s state broadcaster CCTV.

The digital account, Yuyuan Tantian, published and analyzed a strategic report by the French government that urged the EU to consider imposing an unprecedented blanket 30% tariff on Chinese products, or alternatively engineering a 30% depreciation of the euro against the renminbi to counter the surge in low-cost imports.

“That would be equivalent to declaring a trade war on China,” Tantian stated. “China has always kept the door open to dialogue, but it is also well prepared to confront all challenges,” the post added.

What’s happening in France

So far, France has taken no concrete action. “As you can see today, the proposal has not been adopted by the government, which does not mean it is unfounded,” said French government spokesperson Maud Bregeon. Meanwhile, the French Ministries of Trade and Finance did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

This dispute has a precedent in last year’s episode, when China exempted major cognac producers from steep EU brandy tariffs following a more than year-long “anti-dumping” investigation. That move was widely seen as retaliation for EU tariffs on electric vehicles manufactured in China—measures that France had voted in favor of.

Wall Street Closes Mixed, With Dow at Record Highs and Banks Down

Posted on February 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Concerns over slowing retail sales and rising loan delinquencies raised new questions about the strength of the U.S. economy. Even so, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke to a fresh all-time high.

The Dow Jones index is up today after good news.

Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow reaching record levels. Several key economic indicators are set to be released in the U.S. this week, including December retail sales, which showed an unexpected decline. Markets are also awaiting January employment data—delayed from last week—as well as fresh inflation figures.

In this context, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 6,941.81 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6% to 23,102.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, gained 0.1%, hitting a new all-time closing high at 50,188.14 points, after briefly surpassing 50,500 during intraday trading.

The Dow’s third consecutive advance was driven by gains in stocks such as Walt Disney, which rose 2.66%, and insurer Travelers, up 2%.

Bank stocks weighed on the broader market. Bank of America and Wells Fargo fell 1.7% and 2.8%, respectively, while Morgan Stanley declined 2.4%, reflecting renewed pressure on the financial sector.

[[SPX-graph]]

Spotify shares surged after the audio streaming platform forecast first-quarter profits above market expectations, supported by strong user growth and recent price increases.

Key Economic Data

Retail sales unexpectedly remained flat in December, pointing to slower consumer spending momentum heading into the new year. Market expectations had forecast a 0.4% monthly increase, following November’s 0.6% gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 2.43%, down from 3.26% in the previous month.

Data released today also showed that delinquency rates on personal loans in the U.S. climbed to 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025—the highest level since 2017—driven by rising defaults among younger and lower-income borrowers.

The delayed U.S. employment report is scheduled for release tomorrow, after last week’s brief government shutdown.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday that job growth could slow in coming months, as Trump administration immigration policies restrain labor force growth and new artificial intelligence tools boost productivity.

While framed as a broader trend, the comment puts added focus on Wednesday’s employment data. A weaker labor market could make it easier for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with direct implications for the U.S. dollar.

Japan Leads Global Markets

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 led global gains, rising 2.2% on Tuesday to post its third consecutive advance and reach a new all-time high, driven by investor optimism following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s electoral victory.

In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.58%, Shanghai rose 0.13%, and South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.07%.

Ferrari Surges 10% on Wall Street after Reporting Strong Earnings

Posted on February 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Ferrari, the iconic luxury sports carmaker, strengthened its financial outlook for the current fiscal year, projecting solid results that slightly exceed market expectations and underscore the resilience of its business model despite a challenging global economic backdrop.

The prancing horse logo sits on the wheel hub of a Ferrari F12 Berlinetta luxury automobile, produced by Ferrari SpA, inside a Ferrari SpA dealership in Budapest, Hungary, on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2015. Ferrari, the supercar maker being spun off from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, sees profit rising as much as 7.5 percent this year after reporting a 35 percent jump in the third quarter on higher sales of cars likes the California roadster. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

The Italian brand expects its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to reach at least €2.93 billion in 2026, beating the average forecast from analysts.

These projections reflect strong momentum at the end of 2025. In the final quarter of the year, Ferrari reported core earnings of €700 million on total revenue of €1.8 billion, both above Wall Street expectations. The robust quarterly performance helped reinforce the company’s outlook and boosted investor confidence.

Ferrari posts strong financial results

For full-year 2025, Ferrari delivered very healthy results, posting a net profit of approximately €1.6 billion, up 5% year over year. Total net revenues reached €7.146 billion, representing 7% growth, while EBITDA came in close to €2.8 billion, confirming the brand’s strong profitability.

Ferrari also highlighted that demand for its vehicles remains strong and tightly managed, with an order book extending through late 2027. This solid backlog supports revenue visibility and helps preserve brand exclusivity—one of the key pillars behind its high margins in the luxury segment.

New models

Another key driver of Ferrari’s growth strategy for 2026 is the launch of new models, including the highly anticipated debut of its first fully electric vehicle (EV), called Luce, scheduled for release in May this year.

The expansion of its lineup across internal combustion, hybrid, and electric models is part of a broader strategy to diversify its offering and serve different segments of high-end customers willing to pay for exclusivity and performance.

Trump says Kevin Warsh at the Fed would Drive U.S. Growth to 15%

Posted on February 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. president believes his pick to replace Jerome Powell could drive the economy to record growth levels ahead of the midterm elections. However, Senate confirmation faces hurdles due to a DOJ investigation into Powell.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that Kevin Warsh, his choice to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed), could deliver economic growth of 15%—an extraordinarily optimistic target that underscores the pressure the White House would place on Warsh if he is confirmed.

Speaking to the U.S. press, Trump said Warsh had finished second in his previous search for a Fed chair and renewed his attacks on current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He blamed former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for Powell’s appointment. “My Treasury secretary wanted him so badly,” Trump said of Powell.

“And I didn’t feel good about him, but sometimes you listen to people—and it was a mistake, a really big mistake,” the Republican president added.

15% growth

Trump went on to say that if Warsh “does the job he’s capable of,” the U.S. could “grow at 15%,” or “even more than that.” He added: “It’s going to be tremendous, and he’s a very high-quality person.”

However, Trump did not clarify whether he was referring to year-over-year growth or another metric. The U.S. economy is currently projected to grow about 2.4% this year and has averaged roughly 2.8% annually over the past five decades.

A 15% annual GDP growth rate has only occurred in exceptional circumstances since the 1950s, including the third quarter of 2020, when the economy rebounded sharply as businesses reopened after pandemic lockdowns.

Possible delay in Senate confirmation

Warsh’s Senate confirmation, scheduled for May, could face delays. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina has pledged to block any Fed nominations while the Trump administration continues a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into Powell over alleged misuse of funds tied to a renovation project at the Federal Reserve’s headquarters.

When Kudlow asked Trump whether the DOJ investigation justified delaying Warsh’s nomination, Trump replied: “I don’t know—we’ll have to see what happens. I’ve been fighting with Tillis for a long time, so much so that he ended up resigning.”

Seemingly unconcerned about the potential delay, he added: “If it happens, it happens.”

Japan Stocks Rally to Historic Highs as Markets Welcome Takaichi Victory

Posted on February 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The strength of the ruling coalition’s victory surprised both supporters and critics. Looking ahead, uncertainty now centers on the yen and the stance the monetary authority will take in the first half of 2026.

Japan's Nikkei reached a new historic record. — Japan’s Nikkei reached a new historic record.

Following the landslide electoral victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, markets welcomed the news and Japan’s stock market surged to record highs. At the same time, yields on most Japanese government bonds edged higher, while the yen posted a modest appreciation against the US dollar. Analysts now turn their attention to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and whether it will follow through on its intention to continue raising interest rates this year.

Although Takaichi’s victory had been widely expected, the scale of the win surprised markets. Her coalition secured 316 of the 465 seats in the lower house, delivering a strong governing mandate. In this context, the Nikkei 225 rose 6.2% on the week, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 5 basis points to 2.2%, and the yen strengthened 1.3% against the dollar.

Once the initial market “shock” from the ruling party’s stronger-than-expected victory fades, analysts expect markets to regain composure. Attention is likely to shift toward fiscal policy, particularly efforts to avoid financing expansionary policy through higher government bond issuance or new consumption taxes. Despite the controversy generated during the campaign by her proposal to cut food taxes, the prime minister has since committed to a fiscally responsible policy framework.

Impact on the yen

The yen initially strengthened after a weaker first reaction, as investors processed headlines pointing both to increased fiscal stimulus and to continued vigilance by currency authorities, including the risk of intervention.

Analysts warn that if markets conclude that fiscal ambitions advance faster than the BoJ’s willingness to raise interest rates, the medium-term bias could again tilt toward a weaker yen, driven by a higher country risk premium. Despite the electoral surprise, markets continue to price in two interest rate hikes by late 2026.

[[USD/JPY-graph]]

However, an alternative interpretation suggests that the yen’s appreciation may reflect expectations that a frictionless supermajority in parliament will translate into greater political stability, offering temporary support to the Japanese currency.

Bitcoin Slips Again at the Start of the Week, Hovering Near US$70,000

Posted on February 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market starts the week in negative territory following the rebound that began last Friday, which had ended several days of sharp declines.

Bitcoin is experiencing severe selling pressure right now.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down nearly 1% on Monday, trading around $70,000, according to Binance.

The leading cryptocurrency recently hit its lowest level since 2021, near $60,000. On Friday, it staged a strong rebound in tandem with Wall Street, briefly pushing above the $70,000 mark — a level it is now attempting to reclaim.

In this context, Ethereum (ETH) is edging higher, up 0.4% to around $2,102. Among major altcoins, gains are led by Figure Heloc (+1.3%) and XRP (+0.3%).

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

“The weakest bearish case in Bitcoin’s history”

According to analysts, the recent price drop reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural deterioration in the asset itself. They maintain a long-term price target of $150,000 by 2026, arguing that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact.

“The current scenario represents the weakest bearish case in Bitcoin’s history. Nothing has collapsed, there are no hidden skeletons to uncover, and once again the media is writing Bitcoin’s obituary,” one analyst said.

The recent sell-off, they argue, stems from a self-imposed confidence crisis within the crypto community, despite a broadly supportive macro backdrop.

“Imagine a scenario with a pro-Bitcoin president, ETFs, growing institutional adoption, and powerful players like BlackRock and Strategy heavily involved — and yet retail investors manage to manufacture a crisis,” the analysis noted.

Liquidity, ETFs, and the comparison with gold

In response to claims that Bitcoin has “missed its moment” while gold continues to hit record highs, analysts point to global liquidity conditions as the key explanation.

“Bitcoin has always been a liquidity trade,” they stressed, adding that in tighter monetary environments it continues to behave like a risk asset.

However, they highlighted the resilience of Bitcoin ETFs: outflows have been limited to just 7%, despite a nearly 50% price correction, reinforcing the view that institutional demand remains structurally strong.

Google Plans to Issue 100-year Bonds to Raise $15 Billion

Posted on February 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Alphabet would become the second major technology company to tap the bond market in 2026, following Oracle’s US$25 billion debt issuance last week.

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, has launched preparations for a potential sterling-denominated bond offering, structured as a multi-tranche deal ranging from 3 to 100 years in maturity, according to people familiar with the matter. The company appointed BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan as joint global coordinators and bookrunners, while Barclays, HSBC, and NatWest will serve as additional bookrunners.

The transaction would mark Alphabet’s first SEC-registered bond issuance in GBP and would include fixed-rate, senior unsecured benchmark tranches at 3 years, long 6 years (November 2032), long 15 years (November 2041), 32 years, and 100 years.

If it proceeds, the offering could be priced as early as Tuesday, subject to market conditions. The deal will be available exclusively to eligible counterparties and professional clients.

Oracle issued a US$25 billion bond just one week ago

Alphabet would become the second major technology company to access the bond market in 2026, after Oracle raised US$25 billion in debt last week. Oracle’s deal attracted a record US$129 billion in peak demand.

While Alphabet has not publicly disclosed a specific use of proceeds across all tranches, market sources and regulators indicate the issuance is part of a broader corporate financing strategy to support investment in infrastructure, cloud services, and artificial intelligence, at a time when large technology companies are sharply increasing capex and AI-related spending.