Wall Street Erased Early Gains and Closed Lower

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Contradictory signals surrounding the ceasefire between the United States and Iran weighed on financial markets, as investors also looked ahead to a key week of corporate earnings releases.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

Stocks on Wall Street erased early gains and closed lower on Tuesday, April 21, as a crucial confirmation hearing took place in the U.S. Congress for Kevin Warsh, the nominee to lead the Federal Reserve. Investors also continued to grapple with uncertainty surrounding potential peace talks in the Middle East.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite each fell by 0.6%.

[[SPX-graph]]

Uncertain U.S.–Iran talks

The ceasefire is set to expire at an unspecified date later this week, though it remains unclear whether both sides will agree to extend it. At the same time, mixed signals from Washington and Tehran have fueled doubts about the status of negotiations.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump told CNBC that Iran “had no choice but to send representatives to the talks” and that he believed a “great deal” would be reached. He added that he did not want to extend the two-week ceasefire once it expires and warned that the U.S. was “ready to bomb Iran” if no agreement is achieved.

The president also said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports had been a “complete success” and claimed Washington had “fully cooperated” with Iran. Oil prices fluctuated during the session, remaining above pre-war levels, while the head of the International Energy Agency warned that the conflict is driving what could become the worst energy crisis in history.

Warsh in focus

Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appeared before the U.S. Senate for his confirmation hearing. His remarks offered insight into his views on central bank independence—a topic that has gained prominence following public tensions between Trump and current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Warsh stated that, if confirmed, he would ensure the Fed’s actions remain “strictly independent.” He later added that the central bank is still dealing with the consequences of policy mistakes made in 2021 and 2022, and argued that fundamental reforms and a significant shift in monetary management are needed.

Markets remain cautious

As traders scrambled to keep pace with rapidly evolving developments around the Iran conflict, they also prepared for a wave of key corporate earnings this week.

Among notable movers, UnitedHealth Group rose 7%, leading gains in both the S&P 500 and the Dow. The managed care company delivered what Mizuho described as “possibly” its best quarterly report in years.

3M fell 2% despite beating quarterly earnings estimates and improving its adjusted operating performance. Meanwhile, Apple declined 2.5% after drawing attention with news that Tim Cook would transition to executive chairman, with John Ternus set to become the next CEO.

[[AAPL/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin Falls Below $76,000 Amid Uncertainty Over United States–Iran Negotiations

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market closed Tuesday in negative territory, despite expectations that Iran and the United States could reach a peace agreement.

Bitcoin holds steady thanks to strong ETF inflows.

Bitcoin slipped 0.5%, breaking below the $76,000 level, while Ethereum also edged lower, holding near $2,300.

The broader altcoin market followed the downward trend. XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano posted losses similar to Bitcoin’s. Hyperliquid led declines with a drop of around 4%, while Monero stood out on the upside, gaining roughly 8%.

In the investment products segment, spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their streak to five consecutive days of net inflows. On Monday alone, they attracted $238.4 million, bringing the total for the run to nearly $1.5 billion. ETFs tied to Ethereum and Solana also continued to see positive flows.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Ceasefire extension in focus

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he would extend the ceasefire with Iran until “they present a unified proposal” for an agreement. He did not provide a specific timeline, though he confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked.

Over the weekend, a potential trip by Vice President J. D. Vance to Islamabad was considered to resume negotiations with Iran. Authorities in Tehran neither confirmed nor denied a return to Pakistan’s capital. However, despite Trump’s announcement, the trip now appears to be canceled, according to a Washington official.

Despite the uncertain backdrop, Trump emphasized the “strong position” of the United States. “We’re going to make a great deal. I think they have no choice,” he said.

Earlier in the day, however, Trump appeared to contradict himself when asked whether he would extend the ceasefire. “I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time,” he said.

Meanwhile, Iranian commander Ali Abdollahi, head of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, warned that Iran is prepared to respond forcefully to any violation of the truce, according to Tasnim news agency.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also accused the White House of sending “unconstructive and contradictory signals.” Trump’s remarks—including his warning that the U.S. would not hesitate to strike Iran again if talks fail—were seen as part of that mixed messaging.

From a technical perspective, data from Bloomberg show that funding rates for perpetual futures have remained in negative territory for 46 consecutive days—the longest streak since the collapse of FTX in late 2022—highlighting a broadly bearish positioning in the derivatives market.

High Inflation Undermines Trust In Monetary Independence, Says Kevin Warsh

Posted on April 21, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, placed responsibility on the central bank itself for growing doubts about its independence—criticisms that have also come from the White House. He is set to testify before the U.S. Senate this Tuesday.

Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, where he is expected to state that he is “committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent,” according to prepared remarks released Monday in the U.S. press.

In his prepared remarks, he also noted: “I am equally committed to working with the Administration and Congress on non-monetary matters that fall within the Federal Reserve’s responsibilities.”

At another point, Warsh argued that the Fed’s independence “reaches its highest level in the operational execution of monetary policy.” However, he added that “this degree of independence does not extend to the full range of responsibilities assigned by Congress.”

He further stated that U.S. monetary policymakers are not entitled to the same “special deference” in their management of public funds, bank regulation and supervision, or in areas affecting international finance.

Inflation backlash

Warsh also argued that the Fed’s independence is under strain because it has failed to fully deliver on its congressional mandate of price stability.

“Low inflation is the Fed’s armor,” he said. “Therefore, when inflation surges—as it has in recent years—it causes serious harm to our citizens, who may also lose faith in our system of economic governance, raising doubts about whether monetary independence is truly as beneficial as claimed.”

“Inflation is a choice, and the Fed must take responsibility for it,” Warsh added, reiterating his criticism of policymakers for attributing the post-pandemic inflation spike to supply chain disruptions.

A push for reform?

Warsh, who has been nominated to replace Jerome Powell, also pledged to pursue reforms within the central bank. He warned that large institutions’ tendency to cling to the status quo can be “harmful” in a rapidly changing world.

“At a moment that will rank among the most consequential in our nation’s history, I believe a reform-oriented Federal Reserve can make a real difference for the American people,” he said.

Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, devoted much of his remarks to reiterating long-standing criticisms of the central bank since his departure.

He also argued that the Fed should “stay in its lane” rather than venture into fiscal or social policy, referencing past research into issues such as the economic impact of climate change and the pursuit of “inclusive” full employment.

Farewell to its CEO: Apple’s performance during Tim Cook’s tenure

Posted on April 21, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

When Tim Cook took the helm of Apple in 2011, following the departure of Steve Jobs, the company had a market capitalization of roughly $350 billion.

Cook’s tenure at Apple will likely be remembered as one of the most successful in recent corporate history. Over nearly 15 years as CEO, the company not only consolidated its global leadership but also achieved levels of financial growth and value creation that are difficult to match.

From that initial valuation, Apple’s market cap surged to around $4 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world. This leap reflects not only business expansion, but also sustained investor confidence in the company’s model.

Apple’s business takes off

Revenue growth has been equally striking. Annual sales rose from about $108 billion in 2011 to more than $416 billion in 2025—nearly quadrupling during Cook’s leadership.

[[AAPL/USD-graph]]

This expansion was driven primarily by the iPhone, but also by diversification into digital services and new devices.

Another key metric is stock performance. Apple shares climbed nearly 1,900% since Cook became CEO, significantly outperforming the broader market. This performance turned the company into one of Wall Street’s most profitable bets over the past decade and a half.

Growth and consolidation

Operationally, Apple also expanded its ecosystem of products and users. Under Cook’s leadership, the company launched successful categories such as the Apple Watch and AirPods, while strengthening its services business, including payments, music, and cloud storage.

This strategy helped reduce reliance on the iPhone and generated recurring revenue streams.

At the same time, Apple’s installed base grew exponentially, reaching billions of active devices worldwide. This integrated ecosystem became one of the company’s strongest competitive advantages, fostering customer loyalty and increasing spending per user.

Cook’s financial legacy also includes a strong shareholder return policy. The company allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to dividends and share buybacks, further reinforcing its appeal to investors.

Wall Street Ends Lower Amid Uncertainty Over Iran Peace Talks

Posted on April 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

In this context, Wall Street’s main indexes closed with moderate losses: the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.01% to 49,442.69 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 7,110.22; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.26% to 24,404.39.

Mixed headlines and geopolitical noise

Investors navigated a session marked by conflicting signals over the future of negotiations between the United States and Iran.

While Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance would travel to Pakistan to resume talks, other reports pointed to delays in the agenda.

From Tehran, the tone hardened: Iranian officials rejected a new round of negotiations, citing “excessive demands” and constant shifts in Washington’s position.

However, reports from The New York Times suggested that an Iranian delegation was still considering attending talks in Pakistan, keeping the door open for a potential agreement.

At the same time, Trump warned that extending the current two-week ceasefire is “highly unlikely” if no deal is reached by Wednesday night (Washington time), adding further pressure to the situation.

Meanwhile, energy markets reacted sharply:

- Brent crude rose 5.7% to $95.52
- WTI crude climbed 5.9% to $87.42

The Fed enters the spotlight

Amid this backdrop, monetary policy added another layer of uncertainty. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve.Warsh, who served at the Fed from 2006 to 2011, played a key role during the global financial crisis. His nomination helped ease some concerns about central bank independence, but also triggered market reactions.Analysts noted that his historically hawkish stance weighed on equities and supported the US dollar. The most notable move was seen in precious metals, which pulled back sharply following recent gains in gold and silver.

Markets still strong, but warning signs emerge

Despite the pullback, equities remain near recent highs after a strong rally. The S&P 500 has posted three consecutive weeks of gains, rising დაახლოებით 11.9% and returning to record levels.

[[SPX-graph]]

This rapid move pushed the index from oversold to overbought territory in a short period, helping explain the current cautious tone.

At the same time, earnings season is gaining momentum. While the Middle East conflict remains the primary driver, first-quarter corporate results are increasingly shaping market direction.

“This is a key week for earnings. Unless there’s a geopolitical shock, the focus will be on results and, above all, forward guidance,” market strategists said.

Among the major companies set to report are Tesla, Intel, American Express, Boeing, and 3M.

Kevin Warsh Faces First Congressional Test as Trump’s Fed Pick

Posted on April 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Kevin Warsh, nominated to succeed Jerome Powell, is set to face lawmakers in his first major test as a potential head of the Federal Reserve.

Warsh will appear this Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee, where legislators are expected to press him on his views on monetary policy and his calls for a fundamental shift in the Fed’s direction. The hearing comes at a critical moment, with Powell’s term as chair set to end on May 15.

However, the path to confirmation remains uncertain. Key Republicans have already signaled they may block Warsh’s nomination unless the Donald Trump administration drops an ongoing criminal investigation involving Powell and the central bank—arguing it poses a threat to Fed independence.

Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Charles Schwab, warned that the timeline is tight. He noted that Senator Thom Tillis is refusing to support a confirmation vote until the investigation is resolved, even if the hearing proceeds.

In the meantime, Powell has indicated he would remain in place on an interim basis if the confirmation process is delayed—prompting renewed threats from Trump, who has said he would consider removing him if that scenario unfolds.

A moment for clarification

Warsh’s appearance will also serve as a platform to clarify his evolving policy stance. Previously critical of the Fed’s current leadership, he has called for a “regime change” and described Powell’s tenure as “unsuccessful,” though without fully detailing his proposed alternatives.

Historically known as a hawk focused on inflation control, Warsh shifted his tone throughout 2025, signaling openness to rate cuts. He has argued that productivity gains driven by advances in artificial intelligence could help contain inflationary pressures.

Another key proposal likely to face scrutiny is his call for the Fed to reduce its $6.71 trillion balance sheet—a position shaped by his experience as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis.

These views, along with questions about Trump’s potential influence over his policy approach, are expected to be central to the hearing, which will be chaired by Senator Tim Scott, a Republican who has expressed support for Warsh despite divisions within the party over the nomination process.

Bitcoin Nears $76,000 Despite Middle East Turmoil

Posted on April 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Despite escalating conflict in the Middle East, the crypto market is showing increasing resilience to geopolitical shocks compared to traditional equities.

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the week with moderate gains, trading just below the $76,000 mark after comfortably surpassing $78,000 last Friday. Renewed tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran have once again put pressure on risk assets.

Ethereum (ETH) is up around 1%, holding above $2,300. The broader crypto market is following suit: XRP, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Chainlink (LINK) are all trading in positive territory. The exceptions are Hyperliquid and Tron (TRX), which are down 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Short squeeze fuels volatility

Weekend volatility triggered one of the largest short squeezes of the year in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s surge toward $78,000 on Friday night led to $762 million in liquidations across 168,336 traders, with $593 million coming from short positions, according to CoinGlass data.

Gulf tensions back in focus

The early-session pullback was driven by reports of a U.S. attack on an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, which pushed oil prices higher and triggered a flight from risk assets.

This was compounded by Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply—which had briefly reopened on Friday amid stalled negotiations with Washington.

At the same time, Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported that Tehran declined to meet with U.S. officials in Pakistan to continue peace talks. The official IRNA news agency warned that Washington’s “unrealistic and unreasonable demands” offer little prospect for an agreement.

From Washington, President Donald Trump added to the uncertainty. On Friday, he claimed Iran had agreed to an “indefinite” suspension of its nuclear program, but by Sunday he threatened to target Iranian infrastructure if negotiations collapse.

Crypto proves more resilient than equities

Analysts note that this marks the fourth major Iran-related geopolitical shock that digital assets have absorbed since the conflict began. While the pattern remains—peace headlines drive rallies that later fade—downside moves are becoming increasingly limited, unlike the sharper declines seen in equities.

According to market participants, crypto may have already priced in extreme geopolitical risk more effectively than traditional markets. Two main explanations stand out: either sellers reacting to negative headlines have largely exited, or sustained demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs is providing a stronger and more reliable floor for the market.

The IMF Says Venezuela Stabilization Will Be “Very Difficult”

Posted on April 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that restoring macroeconomic and financial stability in Venezuela will be “very difficult” after years of deep economic crisis, high inflation, and institutional deterioration.

Speaking at a press conference, Georgieva noted that Venezuela’s economy has shrunk by roughly two-thirds in recent years, while inflation remains in triple digits, complicating any normalization process.

IMF resumes ties with Caracas

Her remarks come after the IMF and the World Bank formally resumed relations with Venezuela, which had been suspended since 2019 due to disputes over government recognition.

The decision, backed by member countries representing a majority of the IMF’s voting power, allows the Fund to re-engage with the government under interim president Delcy Rodríguez and begin a new phase of technical work.

Georgieva emphasized that the immediate priority is improving the quality and availability of economic data, a key prerequisite for any future policy decisions or financial assistance.

“We cannot make sound decisions without the right data,” she said, highlighting the need to rebuild reliable statistics on inflation, public finances, economic activity, and debt.

Initial technical contacts are already underway between IMF teams and Venezuelan authorities, including the finance ministry and central bank.

Path toward potential financial support

According to the IMF, the process will unfold in stages:

First, data collection and transparency improvements
Second, institutional and capacity-building efforts
Third, the potential launch of a financial assistance program, contingent on progress

Georgieva indicated that any eventual support would depend on credible data, debt sustainability, and macroeconomic stabilization.

A severely weakened economy

Venezuela enters this new phase after years of recession, production collapse, and financial isolation. Estimates place its external debt between $150 billion and $170 billion, with much of it in default.

Reintegration into the international financial system could facilitate debt restructuring, access to multilateral funding, and a rebuilding of reserves, though the path forward remains complex.

The IMF is also coordinating with institutions such as the Inter-American Development Bank to align potential support efforts.

Despite the challenges, Georgieva struck a cautiously optimistic tone, signaling that renewed engagement could lay the groundwork for gradual recovery—even if the road ahead is long and uncertain.

The IMF is Evaluating a Credit Program for Venezuela

Posted on April 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is taking initial steps toward re-engagement with Venezuela, raising the possibility of a future credit program after more than seven years without formal relations.

A collection of U.S. one dollar bills are seen in this arranged photograph in London, U.K., on Friday, Jan. 29, 2016. The International Monetary Fund extolled the potential benefits of virtual currencies and said they warrant a more nuanced regulatory approach, at a time when the future of bitcoin, the most well-known example, is in doubt’s. Bitcoin traded at about $379 on Jan. 20, about a third of its peak in 2013. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

While no agreement has been finalized, recent developments suggest a meaningful shift in the country’s position within the global financial system.

At the center of this renewed dialogue is IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who indicated that a financial support program is “very likely” if both sides can align on a credible economic path forward. Her remarks reflect cautious optimism, but also underline the conditions that Venezuela must meet before gaining access to international financing.

The Future of Venezuela and Potential Financing

A key requirement is the improvement of macroeconomic data quality and transparency. For years, limited and unreliable data have been a major obstacle to any form of multilateral support. The IMF has welcomed recent efforts by Venezuelan authorities to begin sharing official figures again, viewing this as a necessary first step toward rebuilding trust.

Technical engagement is already underway. IMF teams have started working with Venezuela’s Ministry of Finance, central bank, and statistical agencies, focusing on data validation and institutional diagnostics. The eventual resumption of Article IV consultations—a standard IMF review process—will be a critical milestone before any formal program can be approved.

The potential re-entry of Venezuela into IMF-backed financing marks a turning point not only for the country but also for regional financial dynamics. Neighboring countries have expressed strong support for normalizing relations, signaling a broader geopolitical alignment behind Venezuela’s economic stabilization.

However, the road ahead remains complex. Access to IMF resources will depend on the government’s ability to implement credible reforms, strengthen institutions, and establish a consistent policy framework. The IMF has emphasized that speed is possible—but only after these foundational conditions are met.

The Road Ahead for Venezuela

Domestically, Venezuelan authorities appear to be positioning for this new phase. Recent regulatory changes, including a new mining law aimed at attracting foreign investment, suggest an effort to open strategic sectors and generate external financing channels.

For investors and market participants, the situation presents a mix of opportunity and uncertainty. A successful IMF program could unlock capital flows, stabilize macroeconomic conditions, and improve investor confidence. Yet, execution risks remain high, particularly given Venezuela’s institutional fragility and history of policy volatility.

In the near term, markets will be watching closely for concrete progress on data transparency, policy coordination, and formal engagement milestones. Whether this initial dialogue evolves into a full-scale financial program will depend on the government’s ability to translate intent into credible and sustained economic reform.

China to Further Diversify Energy Imports to Tackle Emergencies

Posted on April 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

China will continue to diversify its energy imports and expand strategic reserves to strengthen its ability to respond to potential supply shocks, following disruptions caused by the war involving Iran.

The announcement was made on Friday by Wang Changlin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC), who said the country is preparing for “emergency scenarios” amid heightened global volatility.

Global energy supply has been significantly disrupted since the conflict began on February 28, with hundreds of tankers and vessels stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that previously handled roughly 20% of global oil shipments.

Despite this, China’s energy markets have remained stable, “thanks to government measures to safeguard supply,” Wang said during a press briefing.

Boosting reserves and domestic output

China has already adjusted domestic fuel price caps three times since the conflict began. Retail gasoline prices have increased by 2,275 yuan ($333) per ton, while diesel prices have risen by 2,185 yuan per ton.

However, the second and third adjustments were limited to roughly half the usual increase under the country’s pricing mechanism, reflecting efforts to cushion the impact on consumers.

Authorities also plan to ramp up domestic production and further expand energy reserves to enhance supply security.

China produced 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last year, a record level. Production has continued to rise in 2026, reaching a monthly record of 4.44 million bpd, even as imports declined on a year-on-year basis in March.

Stronger ties with Russia

Separately, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of China’s relationship with Russia, describing it as “valuable” amid a global environment marked by “change and turmoil.”

During a meeting in Beijing with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Xi highlighted the stability and predictability of bilateral ties, contrasting them with broader global uncertainty.

He also called for deeper coordination between the two countries and urged officials to implement the agreements reached with President Vladimir Putin, reinforcing the strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow.