United States Says “No Oil, No Modern World”

Posted on March 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright outlined the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy markets, defended the role of oil and gas, and offered insight into how prices may evolve in an increasingly tense global environment.

The energy sector could rally again soon.

Amid rising geopolitical tensions and growing risks to global energy supply, Wright delivered a forceful message at CERAWeek by S&P Global 2026, the world’s leading energy conference held in Houston. His remarks blended geopolitical realism, a strong defense of hydrocarbons, and a pragmatic view of the energy transition.

“Energy is life, and the world needs vastly more of it,” Wright said, arguing that any serious energy discussion must start from that premise. In that context, he emphasized that U.S. energy policy has a clear objective: “increase production, lower costs, and strengthen national security.”

He raised particular concern when addressing developments in the Middle East. Disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global oil and gas—were a central focus of his remarks. Speaking in a session with Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, Wright was blunt about Iran’s role: “This is a regime that has used its power to disrupt energy markets and destabilize its region.”

According to Wright, the current conflict represents a short-term disruption rooted in a long-standing structural issue. “It is a short-term interruption to solve a long-term problem and move toward a more energy-secure world,” he said.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Oil prices and market reaction

Against this backdrop, Wright described how energy markets are adjusting. In his view, rising prices are a necessary signal: “The market does what it needs to do—raise prices so those who can produce more will do so.”

However, he noted that prices have not yet reached levels that significantly curb demand. “Prices have not risen enough to trigger a meaningful drop in consumption,” he said.

To ease the impact, the United States and its allies have moved forward with a coordinated release of strategic reserves. Wright said substantial volumes are already being injected into the market: “We are releasing between 1 and 1.5 million barrels per day from our reserves,” a figure that could reach close to 3 million barrels per day globally.

He also highlighted a key shift in strategy: “We are not selling the oil—we are conducting exchanges. For every barrel we release, we will recover more than 1.2 barrels next year,” aiming to avoid a structural depletion of reserves.

Oil, gas, and the energy future

Beyond the current crisis, Wright strongly defended the role of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix. “Oil remains the most important energy source in the world. Without oil, there is no modern world,” he said, pointing to its energy density and flexibility.

At the same time, he positioned natural gas as the United States’ key competitive advantage: “Our superpower is natural gas. It is the cheapest source of energy and critical to leading technologies such as artificial intelligence.”

Mercosur–EU Trade Deal to Take Effect Provisionally on May 1

Posted on March 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The European Commission confirmed that the agreement will be partially implemented without waiting for ratification by all national parliaments. Argentina has already completed its internal procedures.

The European Commission announced on Monday that the free trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur will begin provisional application on May 1, without awaiting formal ratification by all national parliaments across the bloc. The decision was outlined in an official statement, as European courts review a request to investigate the validity of the pact, filed by member states opposing the deal.

What provisional application entails

The mechanism will immediately enable the implementation of agreed tariff reductions and export quotas, limited to the trade pillar of the agreement, which falls under the exclusive competence of EU institutions based in Brussels.

Chapters covering political dialogue and cooperation will continue through the standard ratification process within each EU member state.

In practice, the framework will primarily affect the gradual elimination of industrial and agricultural tariffs. In some sectors, current duties exceed 30%, meaning the liberalization represents a significant reduction in operating costs for exporters on both sides of the Atlantic.

What Mercosur countries need to do

Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay must complete their internal notification procedures before the May 1 deadline to access the benefits on time. Argentina has already fulfilled this requirement.

The agreement, which creates a combined market of more than 780 million consumers, will allow companies to operate under the new trade rules immediately, even as the parliamentary ratification process continues across Europe.

Mexican Peso Drops Sharply Against the Dollar as Oil Prices Surge

Posted on March 21, 2026March 21, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso weakened and ended the week with a slight cumulative loss, as markets remained focused on developments in the Middle East conflict.

The currency depreciated sharply against the U.S. dollar in Friday’s session, reversing earlier gains and reflecting renewed risk aversion tied to geopolitical tensions and their potential economic impact.

The exchange rate closed at 17.9557 pesos per dollar, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). Compared to the previous close of 17.7396, this represented a decline of 21.61 centavos, or 1.22%.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.9963 at the high and 17.7092 at the low. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.34% to 99.54.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Oil concerns weigh on sentiment

Clashes involving the United States and Israel against Iran have impacted energy infrastructure in the Middle East. This, combined with Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has created a complex backdrop that pushed WTI crude up 2.38% to $97.82.

Iraqi authorities also declared force majeure across all oil fields operated by foreign companies, meaning operations may be suspended or disrupted without contractual penalties due to circumstances beyond their control.

Focus on inflation and Banxico

This week, the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) all left interest rates unchanged, citing heightened uncertainty stemming from the conflict.

Attention now turns to Banxico, which is expected to announce its policy decision next week. Markets anticipate that it will also keep rates on hold. In addition, Mexico’s mid-month inflation data will be closely watched ahead of the announcement.

Weekly performance and outlook

Despite Friday’s decline, the peso posted only a marginal weekly loss. Compared to last Friday’s official close of 17.9489 per dollar, the currency slipped just 0.04%, according to Banxico data.

In the near term, markets are likely to remain highly volatile. Any signs of de-escalation in the conflict could trigger sharp rebounds, though these may prove difficult to sustain.

Super Micro SMCI Stock Plunges 33% After Allegations of AI Chip Smuggling to China

Posted on March 20, 2026March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

After the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) filed criminal charges against three people connected to Super Micro Computer, including its co-founder, over an alleged scheme to smuggle artificial intelligence technology worth at least $2.5 billion to China, the company’s shares fell 27% on Friday in Wall Street trading.

Shares of Super Micro Computer plunged 27%.

The premarket drop alone wiped out more than $4 billion from the company’s $18.49 billion market capitalization. Super Micro, a key manufacturer of AI servers powered by NVIDIA chips, clarified that it is not named as a defendant in the case and stated that it cooperated with investigators throughout the process.

Those charged include co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, sales manager Ruei-Tsang Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei Sun.

According to the indictment, the three allegedly coordinated a scheme to export U.S.-made servers through Taiwan to Southeast Asia, where the products were repackaged in unmarked boxes and then illegally shipped into China. Between April and mid-May 2025 alone, shipments reportedly exceeded $500 million.

The San Jose–based company has suspended the employees involved and terminated its relationship with the contractor. However, the scale of the scandal has already raised concerns among industry analysts.

Analysts at Bernstein warned that the charges pose “serious credibility issues that could impact the business” and flagged the risk of a potential distancing by NVIDIA. “If that happens, it could disrupt SMCI’s critical GPU supply and have severe consequences,” they noted.

A stock already under pressure

The case adds to existing headwinds.

In 2022, Washington imposed export controls on advanced semiconductors aimed at limiting China’s access to cutting-edge technology and slowing the development of its AI capabilities. Super Micro had previously acknowledged that these restrictions affected some of its products, including those incorporating NVIDIA’s A100 and H100 chips.

The stock had already been under pressure since 2024, when the company reached a peak valuation of $67 billion amid surging demand for AI hardware.

Since then, margin compression in server assembly and allegations raised by short-seller Hindenburg Research (now defunct) had weighed on the share price. The latest legal developments are now intensifying that downward trend.

AMD vs. Broadcom: Which AI Chip Maker Has Greater Upside Potential?

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Both companies are deeply involved in the development of AI chips, but they differ significantly in strategy, positioning, and investment outlook.

AMD stock offers great upside potential.

The competition between Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom is intensifying amid the artificial intelligence boom—a market that is not only reshaping the tech industry but also driving record growth and valuations on Wall Street.

Both firms have delivered strong performance, albeit with some differences. Over the past year, Broadcom’s stock has surged 69%, while AMD has also posted gains of over 60%, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm for AI-related chipmakers.

Broadcom: Scale and diversification

The key differences emerge when looking at operating metrics. Broadcom stands out for its scale and diversification.

In the first fiscal quarter of 2026 alone, its semiconductor division generated $12.52 billion in revenue, marking a 52% year-over-year increase. This is complemented by its infrastructure software business—strengthened by the acquisition of VMware—which provides recurring revenue and greater earnings visibility.

The AI segment is growing even faster. Broadcom expects to generate $10.7 billion in AI-related revenue in the second quarter of 2026, implying a 140% year-over-year increase.

Market estimates suggest that its AI-related revenues could exceed $41 billion in 2026, with strong growth potential in the years ahead.

AMD: A growth-driven strategy

By contrast, AMD presents a growth-oriented profile, focused on expanding market share.

The company has gained traction in the server market, reaching roughly 36.5% share, challenging the dominance of Intel. It is also investing aggressively in high-performance AI chips.

AMD has secured key strategic agreements, including large-scale processor supply deals for data centers, reinforcing its positioning among major tech players.

On the financial side, the company announced a $6 billion share buyback program, bringing total authorization to around $10 billion.

However, its free cash flow declined more than 33% in a recent quarter, falling to $727 million—highlighting some near-term financial pressures.

Different strategic focus

Another key distinction lies in strategic positioning.

Broadcom dominates the custom chip (ASIC) segment, a fast-growing niche as major tech companies increasingly design tailored AI solutions. The company sees a market opportunity exceeding $100 billion in this space over the coming years.

AMD, on the other hand, competes in the more visible segment of GPUs and standard AI accelerators, where the total addressable market is massive—but competition is intense, particularly from NVIDIA.

Bottom line for investors

The data reflects two distinct investment approaches within the same AI megatrend:

Broadcom offers scale, diversification, and more stable cash flows, supported by large, long-term contracts.
AMD provides higher growth potential, but with greater volatility and short-term financial challenges.

In a market that could reach trillions of dollars over the next decade, both companies are well positioned—but with clearly different paths to capturing that opportunity.

Gold Plunges, Headed for Worst Week in Six Years

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Gold is heading for its steepest weekly decline in six years, pressured by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which has driven energy prices higher and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks.

Gold futures traded near $4,689 per ounce on Friday, up 1.48% on the day but down 7.4% for the week — the sharpest weekly loss since March 2020. In the spot market, gold was quoted at $4,687.57.

On Thursday, the metal posted its seventh consecutive daily decline, marking its longest losing streak since October 2023. Gold has been under sustained pressure since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran late last month.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Why gold is falling

The surge in oil and gas prices driven by the conflict has reignited inflation concerns, limiting central banks’ ability to ease monetary policy. For gold — a non-yielding asset — this environment is particularly unfavorable.

The correction has been exacerbated by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, while investors have been liquidating gold holdings to cover losses in other asset classes. Gold-backed ETFs have also recorded outflows, signaling weak demand for safe-haven exposure.

In this context, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at its midweek meeting, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that policymakers will need to see tangible progress on inflation before resuming the path toward monetary easing.

Other precious metals have also come under pressure. Silver fell below $72.06 per ounce, posting a weekly decline of nearly 12%, while palladium and platinum are also on track for negative weekly closes.

Mexican Peso Gains Against the Dollar After U.S. Measures to Contain Oil Surge

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso rebounded against the U.S. dollar in Thursday trading, reversing early-session losses after the United States issued an exemption allowing the sale of Russian oil to help ease pressure on global energy prices.

The exchange rate closed at 17.7396 pesos per dollar, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). Compared with the previous close of 17.8265, the currency gained 8.69 centavos, or 0.49%.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.9600 at the high and 17.7783 at the low. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.09% to 99.21.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Easing volatility supports the peso

Earlier in the session, markets had shown a more risk-off tone, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on risk assets after Iran targeted energy infrastructure in the Middle East. However, the U.S. announcement helped contain volatility in energy markets and improve overall sentiment.

The Mexican peso showed notable resilience, with analysts pointing to global energy dynamics as the key driver in the near term. Additional support came from comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who stated that Iran no longer has the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles following weeks of airstrikes.

Focus shifts to central banks and data

The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged in its latest decision, while both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank followed suit, reinforcing a cautious stance amid geopolitical uncertainty.

On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 205,000 for last week, below expectations and down from a revised 213,000 in the prior week, signaling continued resilience in the labor market.

NVIDIA Edges Past Silver in Total Asset Value

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

One of the key drivers behind silver’s recent decline has been the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which has climbed to its highest levels in months, making the precious metal more expensive for international buyers and dampening global demand.

Against this backdrop, NVIDIA, the global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) computing, has surpassed silver in market value, becoming the world’s second most valuable asset, behind only gold.

Spot silver fell 5.23% to $71.44 per ounce on Thursday, marking its third consecutive daily decline and bringing cumulative losses to 11.6% over that period. For the year, the metal is now slightly down by 0.1%.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA shares slipped 1.02% to $178.56, extending their year-to-date decline to 4.26% in 2026.

Despite the pullback in its stock price, NVIDIA’s market capitalization reached $4.339 trillion, surpassing silver’s $4.119 trillion, according to Companies Market Cap data.

[[NVDA/USD-graph]]

Gold remains the most valuable asset globally, with a market value of $32.399 trillion. Among equities, Alphabet ranks next with $3.69 trillion, followed by Apple at $3.65 trillion, Microsoft at $2.89 trillion, and Amazon at $2.24 trillion.

Why silver is under pressure

The precious metals market has experienced a sharp sell-off in recent days, driven by several macroeconomic factors.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range at its March meeting and signaled only one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of three. This “higher-for-longer” stance reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar’s strength has added further pressure. Because silver is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more expensive globally, weakening demand.

More broadly, a tighter global monetary backdrop — with major central banks such as the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan signaling caution — has reinforced expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer.

Rising oil prices have also contributed to inflation concerns, further reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets and weighing on the broader commodities complex.

AI leadership supports NVIDIA’s valuation

Despite recent volatility, NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI infrastructure continues to underpin its valuation and allows it to overtake silver in total market value.

The stock has faced pressure from investor concerns over elevated valuation multiples and questions about the long-term returns on AI-related capital expenditures. However, the company continues to deliver strong earnings growth, outpacing much of the broader market.

Even so, increased capital spending and heightened scrutiny over profitability have introduced volatility, highlighting the tension between strong structural growth and near-term market expectations.

Gold and Silver Drop Up to 6.4%, Losing Safe-Haven Appeal

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Precious metals extended their losses on Thursday despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, elevated interest rates, and a lack of hedging demand from investors.

Silver’s Momentum Reset Sets Silver’s Volatile Surge Faces Reality Check as Markets Reassess Risk

Gold and silver continued their downward trend, deepening declines accumulated over recent days — a move that stands out given the geopolitical backdrop, where such assets have historically served as safe havens.

In the spot market, gold fell 5.1% to around $4,500 per ounce. Silver posted an even steeper decline, dropping 6.4%, capping a clearly negative week for both metals.

The sell-off unfolded amid heightened global uncertainty, with declines across both equity and bond markets, as investors closely monitor the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, now entering its third week.

Why precious metals are falling

Contrary to typical market behavior, precious metals are failing to attract safe-haven flows. According to analysts at Julius Baer, prices have weakened since the start of the week, breaking key levels — $5,000 for gold and $80 for silver — highlighting a notable lack of investor interest in hedging under current conditions.

Several factors are driving this dynamic. Chief among them are the strengthening U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain less inclined to ease monetary policy.

“Gold and silver markets are barely reacting to the conflict in the Middle East,” Julius Baer analysts noted, adding that any geopolitical-driven upside is being offset by macroeconomic headwinds.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Similarly, analysts at Kingswood Group pointed out that many investors are even selling traditionally defensive assets to raise liquidity. “We are seeing a phase where safe havens are also being liquidated to fund positions in assets that have reacted more sharply,” they said.

Logistical challenges are also playing a role. Disruptions to air and maritime routes due to the conflict are making the physical transport of gold more expensive and complex, further weighing on demand.

Another key signal is the lack of inflows into gold-backed investment vehicles, suggesting that even at current price levels, hedging demand remains subdued.

Looking ahead, analysts agree that gold may only regain its safe-haven role if global conditions deteriorate further and financial stress intensifies. Silver, however, faces a more challenging outlook, as its performance tends to be more closely tied to the economic cycle than to crisis-driven demand for protection.

Global Merchandise Trade Growth to Slow by Nearly 2% in 2026

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), rising oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the outlook for artificial intelligence investment are weighing on global trade prospects.

Global trade and globalization are declining.

The organization also warned that the war in the Middle East could further worsen the outlook.

Global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, and could decelerate further if the conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up energy prices and disrupt global transport, the WTO said in a report.

If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain elevated throughout 2026 due to the conflict, trade growth could slow even further to 1.4%, WTO economists added. A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would impact major importers such as India, Thailand, and Brazil, increasing risks to global food security.

Higher energy prices could shave 0.5 percentage points off trade growth, with Asian and European importers among the most affected. Services trade is also expected to weaken, with growth projected to decline by 0.7 percentage points — from 4.8% to 4.1% — due to disruptions in maritime and air transport. Services trade expanded 5.3% last year.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that while global trade remains resilient — supported in part by AI-related goods — the outlook is increasingly threatened by escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

AI outlook adds uncertainty

Last year, global merchandise trade grew at nearly twice the expected pace, as strong demand for AI-related products — including chips and semiconductors — offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.

AI-related goods accounted for 42% of global trade growth, despite representing only about one-sixth of total trade. The segment expanded 21.9% year over year to reach $4.18 trillion in 2025. However, the report flagged the sustainability of investment in the sector as “a major uncertainty for 2026 and beyond.”

For this year, global trade in goods and services and global GDP are expected to grow at roughly similar rates — 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively — following growth of 4.7% and 2.9% last year.

Asia is projected to lead merchandise import growth in 2026, with imports rising 3.3% and exports 3.5%, followed by Africa with 3.2% import growth and 1.2% export growth. North America, by contrast, is expected to remain relatively flat, with imports increasing just 0.3%.

Around 72% of global trade is currently conducted under most-favored-nation (MFN) terms, down from roughly 80% at the start of last year, after former President Donald Trump imposed higher import tariffs, WTO economists said. Under MFN rules, WTO members are required to treat all trading partners equally.

Against this backdrop, a new WTO conference will be held in Cameroon next week, where trade ministers are set to discuss potential reforms to the global trade body.