Eurozone Economy Loses Momentum in Q1 as Signs of Slowdown Intensify

Posted on May 14, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The eurozone economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2026, raising fresh concerns about the strength of Europe’s recovery amid the war in the Middle East, rising energy costs, and persistent industrial weakness.

The Eurozone economy is not getting a grip

According to preliminary estimates released by Eurostat, the eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded just 0.1% between January and March, down from the previous quarter and in line with market expectations.

The figures already reflect the initial economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting tensions in global oil markets, factors that have begun to weigh on business sentiment and economic expectations across Europe. Across the broader European Union, economic activity managed slightly stronger growth of 0.2% during the quarter.

Germany stabilizes while France stalls

Among the strongest-performing economies were Finland, which grew 0.9%, followed by Hungary at 0.8% and Bulgaria at 0.7%.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland posted the steepest contraction, with GDP falling 2%, followed by Lithuania (-0.4%) and both Sweden and Romania (-0.2%).

Among the eurozone’s largest economies, Spain once again led growth with a 0.6% expansion, while Germany posted a modest 0.3% rebound after months of economic weakness. Italy grew 0.2%, while France stagnated with zero growth during the period.

On a yearly basis, eurozone GDP expanded 0.8%, slowing from 1.3% in the previous quarter. Across the entire European Union, annual growth decelerated from 1.4% to 1%.

Europe’s industrial sector remains under pressure

The slowdown was also reflected in industrial activity data. Eurostat reported that eurozone industrial production rose just 0.2% month-over-month in March, below analysts’ expectations of 0.3%. The agency also revised February’s reading lower, from 0.4% growth to 0.2%.

On an annual basis, industrial production across the 19 eurozone countries fell 2.1% in March, a steeper decline than the 1.7% contraction expected by markets.

The industrial weakness reflects the combined impact of soft demand, elevated energy costs, and global uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. Against this backdrop, concerns are growing over Europe’s ability to sustain a solid economic recovery through the rest of 2026, especially if energy volatility persists and oil prices remain elevated.

JPMorgan Overtakes Goldman Sachs as Wall Street’s Leading Bank

Posted on May 14, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

JPMorgan Chase has emerged as the world’s leading technology investment bank, overtaking Goldman Sachs in Wall Street rankings thanks to a strategy centered on backing startups from their earliest stages and growing alongside them as they evolve into multibillion-dollar companies.

The U.S. banking giant strengthened its position during the first quarter of the year, driven by strong activity in IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, debt issuance, and financing for technology and innovation-focused companies. One example of the model behind JPMorgan’s rise is Pattern, an e-commerce company founded in Utah.

Back in 2017, when Pattern was seeking just $10 million in financing, JPMorgan sent a team to personally visit the startup, which at the time operated out of a warehouse with makeshift desks. Years later, the company grew from generating $100 million in annual revenue to $2.5 billion and selected JPMorgan as the sole placement agent in a $225 million Series B funding round in 2021. The bank later also participated in Pattern’s IPO last September, a transaction that raised $300 million and valued the company at roughly $2.5 billion.

“We are building something different — a platform that supports founders from the earliest days and throughout the entire corporate lifecycle,” said Andrew Kresse, co-head of JPMorgan’s Innovation Economy division.

How JPMorgan gained ground in tech banking

The bank formally launched this strategy about a decade ago through its “Innovation Economy” division, designed specifically for high-growth startups backed by venture capital in sectors such as technology and healthcare.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 accelerated that expansion even further. JPMorgan capitalized on the downfall of the lender historically tied to the startup ecosystem by attracting new clients and recruiting specialized technology bankers.

Today, JPMorgan employs more than 550 bankers focused exclusively on innovation companies worldwide, including 200 hires added since 2023. The bank now works with more than 11,000 startups and high-growth firms across 40 countries.

In the first quarter of 2026 alone, technology-related business accounted for 22% of JPMorgan’s $3.2 billion in investment banking revenue, making it the institution’s most profitable segment.

According to LSEG data, JPMorgan reached a 16.7% share of global technology investment banking fees, surpassing Goldman Sachs in the overall rankings. Goldman, however, retained its leadership position in technology mergers and acquisitions by transaction volume.

Mexican Peso Reverses Losses as Markets Focus on Trump’s China Visit

Posted on May 14, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar in Wednesday’s session, recovering earlier losses as investors continued to monitor U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China and his expected meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Earlier in the day, the peso had weakened after U.S. inflation data came in above expectations, alongside a downgrade in Mexico’s sovereign debt outlook by S&P Global.

The exchange rate closed at 17.1807 pesos per dollar, compared with 17.2228 in the previous session, according to Banco de México. This represents a gain of 4.21 centavos, or 0.24%.

During the session, the peso traded between a high of 17.2530 and a low of 17.1651. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.20% to 98.49 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The 17.20 level remains a short-term technical pivot, given the sideways range observed over the last six sessions, while key support is seen at the yearly low of 17.08.

Trump–Xi meeting in focus

Markets remain focused on the high-profile meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing, with investors watching closely for signals on trade relations between the world’s two largest economies. Broader geopolitical risks, including the conflict in the Middle East and tensions over Taiwan, are also part of the backdrop.

Reports indicate Trump arrived in Beijing accompanied by prominent business leaders, including Elon Musk and Larry Fink.

U.S. inflation adds pressure to markets

Markets also adjusted expectations after U.S. producer price data showed the largest monthly increase in four years. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.4% in April, following a revised 0.7% increase in March.

As a result, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year have declined, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. In contrast, bets on potential rate hikes have begun to reappear.

Domestic headwinds add pressure

Separately, S&P Global revised Mexico’s sovereign credit outlook from “stable” to “negative,” increasing the risk premium on Mexican assets. Finance Minister Edgar Amador said government measures would help reverse the decision over time.

U.S. Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as New Federal Reserve Chair

Posted on May 14, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, setting the stage for a leadership transition at the central bank.

With a vote of 54 to 45, the Senate approved Warsh’s nomination for a four-year term, just one day after advancing his confirmation as a member of the Federal Reserve Board. In this way, Warsh will replace Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed Chair ends this Friday.

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for June 16–17, when policymakers will announce their latest interest rate decision alongside the quarterly update of key economic projections.

Words from Scott Bessent

Following the confirmation, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated: “Today, the Republican bloc, together with Democrats who put country over ideology, confirmed President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.”

He added: “Chairman Warsh will usher in a new era for an institution that needs accountability, sound policy guidance, and a renewed sense of purpose to help steer our economy. His leadership lays the foundation for every American family to build and grow in the world’s largest economy.”

Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, a well-known advocate for the crypto industry, also commented: “The Federal Reserve has long needed reform. With Kevin Warsh confirmed as Chair, U.S. businesses and digital asset holders finally have a leader at the Fed ready to implement it.”

The current U.S. benchmark interest rate stands in the 3.50%–3.75% range. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to keep rates unchanged at its April 29 meeting, marking its third consecutive pause.

How Warsh arrives at the Fed

The 56-year-old lawyer and financier will take charge of the central bank at a critical moment, as rising inflation could complicate the interest rate cuts repeatedly called for by President Donald Trump.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April, following a 0.9% increase in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a year-over-year basis, inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, up from 3.3% in March, marking the highest reading since May 2023.

Wall Street Hits New Records Led by Tech Stocks as Focus Shifts to China

Posted on May 14, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. stocks closed mostly higher on Wednesday, February 12, led by technology shares, even after producer inflation data came in above expectations just one day after a similar upside surprise in consumer prices.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

Investor attention is now focused on Donald Trump’s visit to China, where he is set to meet with Xi Jinping. Several major tech CEOs, including Jensen Huang of NVIDIA and Tim Cook of Apple, accompanied the president on the trip.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1% to 49,693.20 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,444.04 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% to close at 26,402.34.

[[SPX-graph]]

Tech stocks push Wall Street to fresh highs

Although U.S. producer inflation data initially dominated market attention, investors quickly shifted focus to China, where Trump arrived to a formal red-carpet welcome. The U.S. president is expected to participate in an official arrival ceremony on Thursday before meeting with Xi and holding several interviews.

The two leaders are expected to discuss a wide range of issues, including trade and Taiwan. Trump stated that he intends to pressure Xi to “open” China further to American companies.

However, tensions involving the United States and Iran are likely to overshadow much of the summit. Analysts suggest that China, as a major importer of Iranian crude oil, could potentially play a role in guaranteeing a longer-term peace agreement, although expectations for a breakthrough remain limited.

Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran appear to have stalled. Earlier this week, Trump rejected Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal, calling it “unacceptable” and “garbage.” Reports also circulated regarding the possibility of renewed military strikes against Iran by the White House.

For its part, Tehran has given no indication that it plans to make further concessions aimed at easing tensions with Trump.

Oil falls despite concerns over Middle East supply

At the core of investor concerns is the continued disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the critical maritime route off Iran’s southern coast through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. The passage remains effectively restricted, as it has been for weeks.

In a note to clients, analysts at Deutsche Bank said there is “growing concern among investors that a U.S.-Iran agreement appears further away than many had expected following the more positive headlines seen last week.”

[[USOIL-graph]]

As a result, oil prices remain well above the $70-per-barrel level seen before the joint U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran launched in late February. Still, Brent crude futures — the global oil benchmark — fell 2% on Wednesday to $105.57 per barrel.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency warned that global oil supply may fail to meet total demand this year, as the war continues to disrupt energy production across the Middle East.

Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 as Cautious Sentiment Dominates Markets

Posted on May 14, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market traded moderately lower on Tuesday, with Bitcoin falling 1.3% over the past 24 hours to $79,473, while Ethereum slipped 1.1% and lost the key $2,300 level, trading around $2,257.

Bitcoin remains close to $80K this week.

Among altcoins, the picture was mixed. Dogecoin led gains with a 2.7% rebound, while Solana was the day’s worst performer, dropping 4%. XRP, Cardano, and Chainlink traded with more limited moves.

Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index fell to 42 points, returning to “fear” territory, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $233 million on Tuesday, reflecting a more cautious stance from institutional investors in the short term.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

In this context, the $80,000–$81,000 region remains an important support zone for Bitcoin, while a more sustained recovery will likely depend on renewed institutional inflows and a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop.

U.S. inflation data comes in hotter than expected

The crypto market continues to digest an unfavorable macroeconomic report. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.8% in April, above analysts’ expectations.

The main driver behind the increase was higher energy prices linked directly to the conflict in the Middle East. Core inflation — which excludes food and energy — also surprised to the upside, rising to 2.8%, compared with the 2.7% expected by the market.

Although annual inflation accelerated, strengthening the U.S. dollar and reducing part of investors’ appetite for risk assets, Bitcoin managed to remain near key levels, showing resilience even in a more challenging macroeconomic environment.

[[ETH/USD-graph]]

Clarity Act and Trump-Xi summit in focus

On the regulatory front, investors are also watching for developments surrounding the CLARITY Act, the proposed U.S. crypto market structure legislation. The bill is expected to be reviewed next week, potentially becoming a new catalyst for the sector.

At the same time, markets remain focused on the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which could influence broader sentiment across global financial and digital asset markets.

Michael Burry Warns of Possible Market Bubble Formation

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Michael Burry, the founder of Scion Asset Management and the investor who famously predicted the 2008 housing crash (depicted in The Big Short), has once again raised alarms about a potential bubble forming in financial markets.

Burry argues that the current equity rally — driven largely by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence — is showing similarities to the late stages of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s.

In a recent statement, he said the market has “jumped the shark,” suggesting that prices have entered an irrational phase disconnected from fundamentals such as employment or consumer confidence. Instead, he described the market as continuing to rise simply because it has been rising.

AI-driven euphoria under scrutiny

The investor emphasized that today’s market narrative is increasingly concentrated around what he called a “two-letter thesis,” referring to AI. According to Burry, the current environment feels similar to the final months of the 1999–2000 tech bubble.

His comments come amid a powerful rally in technology stocks, particularly companies tied to semiconductors and artificial intelligence. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, for example, has posted one of its fastest gains since March 2000 — just before the dot-com crash.

Burry also suggested that today’s moves in the Nasdaq can be “more extreme” than those seen during the late-1990s tech boom, based on data compiled by Yahoo Finance.

Bearish bets against tech and semiconductors

The Scion Asset Management founder has reportedly disclosed bearish positions against several technology companies and semiconductor-related ETFs. These trades target firms tied to the AI investment boom, echoing the contrarian positioning he famously adopted ahead of the 2008 financial crisis.

His warnings add to a growing debate on Wall Street about whether the rapid rise in AI-linked equities reflects a sustainable structural shift — or the early stages of another speculative bubble.

U.S. Inflation Jumps to 3.8% Amid Fuel Price Shock

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The April reading came in above market expectations, which had already anticipated a sharp acceleration compared to March. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, also picked up.

Oil prices shocked the USA and the world.

U.S. inflation accelerated more than expected in April, rising 3.8% year-over-year and marking its largest jump since May 2023. The increase was driven largely by a surge in fuel prices, as the war in the Middle East disrupted global energy supply chains.

Markets were caught off guard by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, as analysts had forecast a 3.7% annual increase. On a monthly basis, however, the headline figure matched expectations at +0.6%.

Energy prices drive the inflation shock

Energy prices once again played a central role. While gasoline and fuel oil prices rose around 5% month-over-month in April — compared with a 21% spike in March — the year-over-year picture remains extreme, with gasoline up 28.4% and fuel oil surging 54.3%.

Another key reading was core inflation, which excludes food and energy. It rose 2.8% year-over-year, above both the 2.7% forecast and March’s 2.6%. On a monthly basis, core inflation also surprised to the upside, increasing 0.4%, double the pace of March.

The data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics heightened concerns among investors. In recent days, markets had already begun pricing out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, despite the upcoming transition to new Fed leadership under Kevin Warsh, selected by Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell.

In fact, traders are now even assigning a small probability to a rate hike toward the end of the year, reflecting growing concern that inflation may remain stickier than previously expected.

Which Wall Street CEOs Are Traveling With Trump to China?

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. President Donald Trump will arrive in Beijing this week alongside top executives from Tesla, Apple, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Boeing to discuss trade, technology, artificial intelligence, and energy with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The summit comes amid the war in the Middle East and escalating technological tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Trump's deadline for new deals is approaching. — Trump’s deadline for new deals is approaching.

Trump’s visit to China is drawing intense attention from global markets and the corporate world alike. The White House confirmed that the president will travel with a powerful business delegation featuring some of the most influential CEOs from Wall Street and Silicon Valley, highlighting the economic and strategic importance of the meeting with Xi.

Among the executives expected to join the trip are Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX; Tim Cook, Apple’s outgoing CEO; and Larry Fink. Representatives from Boeing, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Micron Technology, and Blackstone will also be part of the delegation.

The trip will mark the first official visit by a U.S. president to China in nearly a decade and takes place amid a particularly fragile geopolitical backdrop shaped by the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, partial disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and rising trade and technology tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Trade, AI, semiconductors and energy on the agenda

The meeting between Trump and Xi — originally scheduled for March but delayed due to the escalation in the Middle East — is expected to cover a broad agenda, including:

bilateral trade,
artificial intelligence,
rare earth exports,
semiconductors,
energy,
Taiwan,
and the conflict with Iran.

The makeup of the delegation also reflects the sectors currently viewed as strategic priorities for the White House: technology, finance, defense, energy, and global supply chains.

Alongside Musk, Cook, and Fink, the delegation will also include:

Kelly Ortberg, CEO of Boeing;
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs;
Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup;
Michael Miebach, CEO of Mastercard;
Cristiano Amon, CEO of Qualcomm;
and Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone.

Boeing deal and notable absences draw attention

Boeing’s presence is particularly notable after reports emerged suggesting the company could finalize one of the largest commercial agreements in its history during the visit: the sale of 500 737 Max aircraft to China.

According to Bloomberg, the announcement could coincide with the presidential meeting as part of broader efforts to reset commercial relations between the two superpowers.

Beyond the size of the delegation, markets have also focused on several notable absences — most prominently Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA.

Bitcoin Holds Above $80,000 Despite Weak U.S. Inflation Data

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The crypto market traded cautiously on Tuesday, mirroring the tone seen across traditional financial markets.

Bitcoin fell 0.5% but managed to hold near the $80,000 level, while Ethereum faced heavier pressure, dropping 2% over the past 24 hours and slipping below $2,300. The broader altcoin market showed mixed performance, with BNB rising around 1.2%, while TRON and XRP posted losses of up to 0.7%.

Geopolitical tensions continue to drive market sentiment. According to David Morrison, senior analyst at Trade Nation, recent market moves have been heavily influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump rejecting Iran’s response to a U.S.-backed peace proposal.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Investors are also closely watching Trump’s upcoming trip to China for talks with Xi Jinping, although expectations for meaningful progress remain low. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that the conflict remains far from resolved.

After a relatively stable weekend, Bitcoin suddenly dropped to around $80,250 before rebounding above $82,000. Profit-taking later pushed the cryptocurrency back below the $80,000 mark, although it quickly recovered and appears to be holding that level as key support.

April CPI data takes center stage

Markets also reacted to the release of April’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year — the highest reading in nearly three years. The impact of the war with Iran and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz were clearly reflected in energy prices.

The stronger-than-expected inflation data could reduce expectations for near-term monetary easing and push bond yields higher, reinforcing a more defensive positioning across global markets.

Under that scenario, speculative assets — including cryptocurrencies — could face additional short-term pressure as capital rotates toward the strength of the U.S. dollar and yield-focused investments. The market reaction also highlights how closely digital assets are now trading in line with broader macroeconomic conditions and global liquidity expectations.