Mexican Peso Rallies to 1.58% Weekly Gain vs. Dollar

Posted on January 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso hit a new 18-month high, extending its strong start to the year as traders grew less nervous about U.S. President Donald Trump and his stance on Greenland.

The peso extended its gains against the dollar on the final trading day of the week. The local currency reached a fresh 18-month high, continuing its strong early-year performance as market participants became less concerned about Donald Trump’s intentions regarding Greenland.

The exchange rate ended the session at 17.3677 pesos per dollar. Compared with Thursday’s close of 17.4802, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the move represented a gain of 11.25 centavos, or 0.64%, for the peso.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The dollar traded within a range, with a session high of 17.4973 pesos and a low of 17.3657. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.09% to 98.19 points.

USD/MXN Exchange Rate Drivers

After a speech by Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos eased market concerns over his push to assert control over Greenland, the peso extended its year-to-date rally. Having consolidated below the 17.50 level, the currency also benefited from continued weakness in the dollar.

The easing of tensions between the United States and Europe over Greenland helped drive a weekly improvement in the exchange rate. Compared with last week’s close of 17.6465 pesos per dollar, the currency posted a gain of 27.88 centavos, or 1.58%.

Friday’s advance came despite a session marked by an unexpected contraction in economic activity in November. Mexico’s statistics agency INEGI reported that the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) fell 0.2% month over month and declined 0.1% year over year.

After three days of consolidating between 17.50 and 17.40, the peso broke below that range. A sustained move below the 17.40 support level could open the door to a test of the psychological 17-per-dollar mark.

Intel Shares Sinked 17% After Disappointing Revenue Outlook

Posted on January 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to Intel executive John Pitzer, the main reason behind the weaker-than-expected outlook is supply constraints.

Intel's CEO is under fire. — Intel’s CEO is under fire.

Intel shares (and related ADRs) fell sharply on Friday, plunging as much as 17% after the company issued a first-quarter financial outlook that came in below Wall Street expectations.

Intel expects first-quarter revenue of around $12.2 billion at the midpoint, compared with analysts’ forecasts of roughly $12.6 billion. The company also projected earnings per share of $0, below the market consensus estimate of $0.08.

John Pitzer, corporate vice president of investor relations, said the primary driver of the disappointing forecast is supply constraints that are limiting Intel’s ability to meet the full extent of customer demand.

“Our biggest near-term challenge is that we can’t fulfill all the demand our customers are giving us,” Pitzer said in an interview, adding that supply limitations will be most pronounced in the first quarter.

Intel Delivers Solid Results

Despite concerns about the start of the year, Intel exceeded expectations on several fronts in its fourth-quarter report. The company posted earnings per share of $0.15, above the $0.09 expected by Wall Street analysts, and revenue of $13.7 billion, also beating forecasts, though down 4% year over year.
Intel also highlighted that its artificial intelligence-related businesses posted “double-digit” growth both sequentially and year over year, underscoring rising demand for its CPU-focused data center chips.

Still, the company faces intense competition from rivals such as AMD and Arm, adding pressure to its product business. In addition, Intel is investing heavily in advanced manufacturing processes, including its 18A and 14A nodes, which involve significant costs and could weigh on gross margins.

Higher costs for components such as memory and storage—used alongside Intel’s CPUs—could also constrain demand for systems based on its processors, Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said during a call with analysts.

U.S. Control Over Oil Adds Risk to Venezuela’s Debt with China

Posted on January 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Caracas had been repaying China with crude oil under a 2019 agreement reached after Venezuela fell into default. The United States is now placing obstacles in the way of that arrangement going forward.

The energy sector is closing in on Venezuela with Maduro out.

U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil has reached a new level of complexity after Washington seized shipments that had been used to service debt owed to China, a move that could trigger another point of friction between the two global powers.

At the center of the dispute is Venezuela’s staggering debt burden: roughly $150 billion in external liabilities, about one-tenth of which corresponds to loans from China. The OPEC member had been repaying those loans through oil shipments.

That arrangement had largely held until the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month. While Washington’s leverage formally extends only to oil, crude exports remain Venezuela’s main source of revenue. The country has been struggling with a default dating back to 2017, when roughly $60 billion in Venezuelan bonds fell into arrears.

Documents and sources from state oil company PDVSA show that three supertankers have been shuttling between Venezuela and China over the past five years, transporting crude in exchange for interest payments under the terms of a temporary agreement reached in 2019.

In addition, part of the cash generated from oil shipments to China was routed through a Beijing-controlled account before being used for debt servicing, even as sanctions and default prevented payments to many of Venezuela’s other creditors.

U.S. Emerges as an Obstacle to Venezuela–China Rapprochement

The Donald Trump administration has said that proceeds from Venezuelan oil sales will be redirected to a Qatar-based account controlled by Washington. This would give the U.S. president direct influence over which creditors are paid and when.

Beijing condemned the redirection of Venezuelan oil exports during a press conference on January 7, stating that “the legitimate rights and interests of China and other countries in Venezuela must be protected.”

A U.S. official, for their part, said the Trump administration is allowing China to purchase Venezuelan oil, but not at the “unfair and heavily discounted” prices at which Caracas previously sold its crude.

If Washington pressures China to accept steep haircuts on its claims and Beijing refuses, the standoff could slow a broader debt restructuring and hinder Venezuela’s economic recovery. In this context, and with a government that is effectively headless, Venezuela finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place.

While the United States currently holds a dominant position, China remains the largest bilateral lender to the developing world, and its cooperation with the Paris Club was critical over the past decade. Beijing’s obvious leverage lies in refusing to cooperate in future sovereign debt renegotiations under the Common Framework until it believes it has been treated fairly in Venezuela—a threat that would carry real weight.

Silver Hits $100 for the First Time Ever as Gold Nears $5,000

Posted on January 23, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Geopolitical risks stemming from the erratic policy swings of the Donald Trump administration, along with concerns over a potential loss of independence at the Federal Reserve, are keeping demand for precious metals elevated.

Gold’s Resilience Deepens as Rate-Cut Bets and Geopolitics Shape Outlook

Gold and silver hit record levels on Friday as investors sought safe havens amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy and fears of political interference at the Federal Reserve.

Gold rose 1.5% to $4,985 an ounce after reaching a record high of $4,989.54. Silver, supported not only by safe-haven demand but also by strong industrial use, jumped 5% to $101.17, surpassing the $100 mark for the first time ever.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Precious Metals Drivers

Geopolitical tensions and an unconventional U.S. presidency continue to underpin strong demand for the yellow metal.

Earlier this week, precious metals were initially boosted by Donald Trump’s attempts to assert control over Greenland and his threats to impose additional tariffs on countries opposing U.S. policies. Although the U.S. president walked back those statements on Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos—ruling out military force or tariff-based coercion—gold continued its upward momentum.

Frequent policy reversals by the Trump administration have fueled an environment of uncertainty in the United States, pushing investors away from the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. At the same time, fears that the Federal Reserve could come under political influence have further supported precious metal prices while weighing on the dollar.

The U.S. Department of Justice has launched an investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, related to congressional hearings over renovation work at the Fed’s headquarters. Powell has dismissed the probe as a “pretext” aimed at removing him from office.

Finally, markets are also seeking protection against persistent inflation risks and rising levels of sovereign debt worldwide.

Mexican Peso Closes Flat Against the Dollar, Consolidates Below 17.50

Posted on January 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The local currency traded steadily as it continued to consolidate at levels not seen since June 2024, while markets digested a fresh local inflation report.

The Mexican peso ended Thursday’s session virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar. The currency remained stable while continuing to consolidate below the 17.50-per-dollar level, as investors absorbed new domestic inflation data.

The exchange rate closed at 17.4802 pesos per dollar, compared with Wednesday’s close of 17.4843, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). The move left the peso with a marginal gain of 0.02%, less than one cent.

The dollar traded within a range, hitting a high of 17.5136 pesos and a low of 17.4378. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) from Intercontinental Exchange, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.45% to 98.35.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Greenland concerns ease

The peso continued to consolidate below the 17.50 level after touching its strongest levels since June 2024 on Wednesday, supported by remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump that eased concerns surrounding Greenland.

Trump said on Thursday that the details of a Greenland agreement are being finalized, a day after he dropped tariff threats against European nations opposing his plans to acquire the territory and ruled out taking it by force.

The peso has extended the strengthening seen last year, also benefiting from a weaker dollar amid uncertainty over U.S. trade strategy. Analysts say there is still room for further appreciation.

There are few signs that the dollar’s fragility will reverse meaningfully this year, as Trump’s policy of weakening the dollar to stimulate the economy appears to remain intact.

Key data

On the economic front, inflation data supported expectations that the Bank of Mexico will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting. In the United States, economic growth and price data also drew attention.

Mexico’s headline consumer price index accelerated to an annual rate of 3.77% in the first half of January, after two consecutive periods of decline. Core inflation also edged higher to 4.47%, following moderation in the previous two fortnights.

The world’s largest economy grew 4.4% in the third quarter of last year, beating forecasts of 4.3% and accelerating from 3.8% in the prior quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.8% year over year in November.

U.S. GDP Grows Slightly More Than Expected in 2025

Posted on January 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that consumer spending and a narrower trade deficit were key drivers of the increase.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an upwardly revised annualized rate of 4.4%, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023, according to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis in its updated estimate for the third quarter of 2025.

As a result, the U.S. economy grew slightly faster than initially thought. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected GDP to hold at a 4.3% pace, after expanding at a 3.8% rate in the second quarter.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter. However, a key gauge of underlying domestic demand—final sales to private domestic purchasers—rose at a more moderate 2.9% pace.

Meanwhile, profits from current production increased at an annualized rate of $175.6 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $9.5 billion.

Drivers of GDP growth

Exports and business investment were the main contributors behind the upward revision for the July–September period. Imports, which subtract from GDP, also increased. Consumer spending and a narrower trade deficit were the primary forces supporting growth in the third quarter.

Economists also noted that activity has taken on what they described as a K-shaped pattern, in which higher-income households and large corporations are bearing most of the weight of economic growth. They attributed this dynamic to President Donald Trump’s policies, including aggressive import tariffs that have pushed prices higher.

Against this backdrop, low- and middle-income households are struggling to substitute purchases, while a booming stock market and still-elevated home prices continue to shield higher-income households from inflation.

A similar contrast can be drawn among companies: large firms have sufficient resources to absorb higher import tariff costs, while smaller businesses are barely staying afloat as they also face a shrinking supply of low-cost labor amid a crackdown on immigration.

Argentina Country Risk Hits Lowest Level Since 2018

Posted on January 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Argentine assets drew renewed investor interest in the previous session after Donald Trump struck a more conciliatory tone in his push to annex Greenland.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech before the crowd.

The S&P Merval extended its strong performance and is on track to recover much of last week’s losses, while hard-currency sovereign bonds also advanced and the country risk premium fell to its lowest level since mid-2018. The rally was supported by positive momentum in global markets following Trump’s abrupt shift in stance on Greenland, which helped ease investor anxiety.

On Wall Street, Argentine stocks posted gains of up to 12.8%, led by Telecom. The podium was rounded out by Mercado Libre (+4.7%) and Globant (+3.3%).

Telecom’s surge followed the announcement of a strategic agreement with Banco Macro, under which the bank acquired a 50% stake in Personal Pay, the digital wallet within Telecom’s Personal ecosystem. The deal marks another step in the convergence between traditional banking and fintech.

The benchmark BYMA index rose 0.6% in peso terms to 3,066,434.82 points, while climbing 0.9% in dollar terms to 2,042 points—its highest level of the year.

Bonds and country risk

In fixed income, the strongest gains were seen among Global bonds, with the GD38 leading (+1%), followed by the GD41 (+1%) and the GD35 (+0.9%). Bonares also advanced by up to 0.7%, driven by the AL41 and the AL30, which rose 0.7%.

As a result, Argentina’s country risk fell 2.85% to 546 basis points, its lowest level since June 22, 2018 (535 points).

Milei on currency bands, China, and the U.S.

Earlier today, President Javier Milei gave an interview to Bloomberg. On currency bands, he defended them as a mechanism to contain volatility and limit price swings, adding that they will only be lifted once excess liquidity has been fully absorbed and domestic inflation converges toward international levels.

Regarding external debt issuance, Milei reiterated that the government does not expect to return to international markets except to roll over principal, in line with recent remarks by Economy Minister Luis Caputo. However, given upcoming principal maturities this year, some refinancing may be required.

On relations with China, Milei said the Asian giant remains an important trading partner and that maintaining the relationship is consistent with the government’s goal of further opening the Argentine economy. Finally, regarding a potential trade agreement with the United States, he said talks are ongoing and that positive news should be announced soon.

U.S. Supreme Court Rejects Trump Fed Intervention

Posted on January 22, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. Supreme Court expressed serious concerns over Donald Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, warning that making such a move easier could severely undermine the central bank’s independence.

The US Supreme Court can overturn any important decision.

During oral arguments on Wednesday, the justices signaled that preserving the Federal Reserve’s independence in setting monetary policy is essential, and that eroding it would pose real-world economic risks. They suggested that the potential harm of the court’s ruling would lie in opening the door too widely for presidents—now or in the future—to dismiss monetary policymakers, effectively undoing more than a century of central bankers making interest-rate decisions free from political pressure.

That concern was most directly articulated by conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh during an exchange with Solicitor General D. John Sauer, who argued that Trump should be allowed to fire Cook over alleged false statements made in mortgage applications prior to her appointment to the Fed.

“Your position that there is no judicial review, no process required, no remedy available—I mean, that would weaken, if not destroy, the independence of the Federal Reserve,” Kavanaugh told Sauer.

“We have to be mindful of what we are doing and the consequences of your position for the structure of government,” Kavanaugh added.

Making it too easy to remove a Federal Reserve governor, he warned, would give presidents an incentive to launch a “search-and-destroy mission” to “find something and just put it on a piece of paper—no judicial review, no process, nothing. It’s over.”

Trump’s continuing pressure

Trump has repeatedly demanded that the Fed cut interest rates faster and more aggressively than the central bank, under Chair Jerome Powell, has been willing to do amid persistent inflation. He has said he plans to appoint a like-minded Fed chair when Powell’s term expires in May.

Trump cited unproven allegations of mortgage fraud as justification for seeking Cook’s dismissal. Cook, who was appointed to the Fed’s Board of Governors in 2022 by former Democratic President Joe Biden and whose term runs until 2038, has described the allegations as a pretext to remove her over monetary policy differences.

Earlier this month, Trump’s Justice Department also launched a criminal investigation into Powell related to a project to renovate two historic buildings at the Fed’s headquarters in Washington. Powell similarly characterized the probe as a pretext for Trump to exert greater influence over the Fed and monetary policy.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who like Kavanaugh was appointed to the Supreme Court by Trump, pressed Sauer on the economic consequences of allowing Cook’s removal. Barrett noted that economists had filed briefs with the Court warning that such a move could trigger a recession.

The Mexican Peso Closes Below 17.50 for the First Time in 18 Months

Posted on January 21, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso climbed to levels not seen in 18 months, supported by a calmer market backdrop following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump in Davos.

The Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar in Wednesday’s trading, breaking below the 17.50 mark for the first time in 18 months amid reduced market anxiety after remarks by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum.

The exchange rate ended the session at 17.4843 pesos per dollar. Compared with Tuesday’s close of 17.6056, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the move represented a gain of 12.13 centavos, or 0.69%.

During the session, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 17.6082 pesos and a low of 17.4224. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.21% to 98.77 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

No Force Over Greenland

In a closely watched speech at the Davos forum, Trump reiterated that the United States needs to control territory in Greenland, but scaled back his demand to “just a portion” of the island. He also pledged that he would not use military force to take control of the territory.

Over the weekend, the U.S. president had warned that he would not back down from his ambitions and threatened to impose tariffs on several European countries that oppose his stance. European leaders were preparing for an emergency meeting to discuss possible responses.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that he was confident Washington and European governments would find a solution to Trump’s Greenland ambitions, downplaying fears of a new trade conflict.

Trump Threatens Cartel Strikes

The exchange rate, which had approached the 17.40 level earlier in the day, edged higher later on—while still holding most of its gains—after Trump issued another warning. The U.S. president said that attacks against drug cartels would “begin soon.”

Although ambiguous, Trump’s statement opened the door to interpretations of more aggressive actions in the region, potentially including direct or indirect operations on Mexican territory. Such a scenario could raise tensions ahead of the upcoming review of the USMCA trade agreement.

Wall Street Rises After Trump Rules Out Use of Force in Greenland

Posted on January 21, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. stocks moved higher on Wednesday, January 21, following President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Initial market reaction was negative, with futures slipping in pre-market trading amid Trump’s sharp criticism of the European Union. However, once markets officially opened, major indexes reversed course after the Republican president stated that while he seeks to acquire Greenland, he does not intend to use military force.

Global markets showed mixed performance. In Europe, Germany’s DAX fell 0.5%, the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.4%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 0.5%, while London’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1% and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.1%, reflecting a lack of a clear regional trend. On Wall Street, sentiment was more positive: the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.4%, and the Nasdaq added 0.1%.

Donald Trump Moderated his Speech

During his speech, Trump took aim at Europe amid tensions surrounding Greenland, arguing that “Europe is not doing well” and “is not moving in the right direction.” Much of his address focused on criticizing policies adopted by European governments in recent years, particularly those he described as “progressive.”

“Frankly, many parts of the world are being destroyed before our very eyes, and leaders don’t even understand what’s happening. And those who do understand are doing absolutely nothing about it,” Trump said.

Despite the harsh rhetoric, U.S. equities opened slightly higher after Trump explicitly ruled out the use of force to acquire Greenland. “People thought I would use force. I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I will not use force,” he said.

His remarks came one day after the S&P 500 fell 2.1%, marking its worst session since October. That sell-off was triggered by Trump’s threat to impose a 10% tariff on European countries that oppose his ambitions regarding Greenland.