Author: Ignacio Teson

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

Mexican Peso Holds Firm, Edges Higher for the Week

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso showed little movement at the end of a week marked by monetary policy decisions from several central banks, including the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

The peso closed stable against the dollar on Friday, ending the week largely unchanged. The local currency showed minimal fluctuations after a week influenced by key policy decisions from multiple central banks, including Banxico.

The exchange rate finished the session at 17.9994 pesos per dollar. Compared with Thursday’s close of 18.0032 pesos per dollar, according to official Banxico data, this represented a marginal gain of 0.02% for the currency, less than a cent.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

During the day, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 18.0390 pesos and a low of 17.9887 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies on the Intercontinental Exchange, rose 0.15% to 98.60.

Mexican Peso Performance

Earlier in the day, the peso retreated due to a stronger dollar in the market and following the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike to levels not seen in 30 years, along with its statement that further increases could occur in 2026—defining a new trajectory after years of low rates.

Today, the peso was pressured by the strength of the U.S. currency as well as the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision, which continues to reduce the attractiveness of the local currency in carry trade strategies.

Mexican Central Bank Policy

On the domestic front, Banxico lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points yesterday, marking the 13th reduction since the easing cycle began last year. The move also narrowed the interest rate differential for carry trades, which could be reflected in the exchange rate.

With today’s close, the peso slightly extended its weekly gain. Compared with last Friday’s official close of 18.0354 pesos, according to the central bank, the current level represents an accumulated gain of 3.60 cents, or 0.20%.

Trump Media & Technology Partners with TAE Technologies

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Donald Trump’s company, TMTG, is set to merge with nuclear fusion energy firm TAE Technologies.

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind the social media platform Truth Social and linked to U.S. President Donald Trump, announced a merger agreement with nuclear fusion energy company TAE Technologies valued at more than $6 billion.

The all-stock deal aims to position the combined entity as one of the world’s first publicly traded nuclear fusion energy companies.

Under the terms of the agreement, shareholders of TMTG and TAE will each own approximately 50% of the new group once the transaction is completed. The merger is expected to close in mid-2026, subject to regulatory approvals and shareholder consent.

Donald Trump’s company seals a multibillion-dollar deal

TMTG has agreed to contribute up to $200 million in cash at closing, with an additional $100 million available after filing registration documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The newly formed company plans to identify a site and begin construction in 2026 of what it describes as the “first utility-scale fusion power plant,” with an initial generation capacity of 50 megawatts of electricity. Future projects could expand capacity to between 350 and 500 megawatts.

This technology, which seeks to replicate the process that occurs in the sun by fusing light atomic nuclei, promises abundant, stable, and low-emission energy, although it has yet to be commercially proven.

Founded in 1998, TAE Technologies is backed by major investors including Google, Chevron, and Goldman Sachs. The company has built and operated several fusion reactor prototypes and has raised more than $1.3 billion in private capital, according to reports.

Diversified business strategy

Beyond fusion energy, TAE also operates business units focused on energy storage and bioscience solutions.

For Trump Media, which suffered significant operating losses and a sharp decline in its share price during 2025, the deal represents an effort to diversify into highly complex technology and energy sectors, following earlier expansion into crypto assets and financial services.

TMTG shares reacted positively to the announcement, rising more than 24% in premarket trading.

Executives from both companies—Devin Nunes of TMTG and Michl Binderbauer of TAE—will serve as co-chief executives of the new entity, which will also include divisions such as TAE Power Solutions and TAE Life Sciences under the Trump Media & Technology Group umbrella.

OpenAI Targets $100B to Surpass Visa and Oracle

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The company could reach a valuation of $830 billion and continue expanding its investments in artificial intelligence.

FILE – The OpenAI logo is seen on a mobile phone in front of a computer screen displaying output from ChatGPT, on March 21, 2023, in Boston. The Italian government’s privacy watchdog said Friday March 31, 2023 that it is temporarily blocking the artificial intelligence software ChatGPT in the wake of a data breach. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer, File)

OpenAI, the artificial intelligence (AI) company best known for developing ChatGPT, is in talks to pursue one of the most ambitious funding rounds in tech history, aiming to raise up to $100 billion and reach a valuation of around $830 billion.

According to sources familiar with the matter cited by The Wall Street Journal, the discussions are still at an early stage, but they underscore the scale of the U.S.-based company’s growth ambitions and investment plans.

If completed, the capital raise would rank among the largest private funding rounds ever attempted, far surpassing most previous fundraisings in the technology sector.

The company behind ChatGPT keeps growing

OpenAI’s interest in attracting capital from sovereign wealth funds and other major financial players reflects its growing infrastructure needs and its ongoing development of advanced AI technologies.

The company is targeting the completion of the funding round by the end of the first quarter of next year, although the terms could still change as negotiations progress.

A potential valuation of $830 billion would represent a significant leap from recent funding rounds and from the roughly $500 billion valuation implied by secondary share transactions.

At that level, OpenAI would be worth more than major global companies such as Tencent ($726.4 billion), Visa ($670.1 billion), Oracle ($551.4 billion), and Mastercard ($512.4 billion).

This rapid rise highlights how quickly OpenAI has scaled within the tech ecosystem, driven by the growing adoption of its products and expectations surrounding new applications based on machine learning.

Challenges facing artificial intelligence

The fundraising effort comes at a time when investment in artificial intelligence has begun to show signs of cooling after its initial surge.

Despite strong demand from companies seeking to integrate AI into their operations, some investors remain cautious about the long-term sustainability of massive capital commitments to the sector.

At the same time, the industry faces challenges such as supply chain constraints for key components, including memory chips critical to AI infrastructure.

OpenAI declined to comment on the reports. However, sources close to the process suggest the company is also exploring alternative sources of capital, including potential strategic partnerships with major technology firms.

Recurring rumors point to interest from giants such as Amazon, which is said to be considering an investment of around $10 billion, although no such talks have been publicly confirmed.

These developments add to speculation about a potential initial public offering (IPO), which some analysts believe could value OpenAI at as much as $1 trillion.

Trump Moves to Improve His Public Image with Surprise Benefits

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

In less than 24 hours, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of initiatives and benefits targeting different groups.

Donald Trump.

Some of these include active-duty soldiers, the cannabis industry. Even astronauts are among the groups, along with promises of more to come, as he grapples with weak economic news and declining approval ratings.

The president is going through a rough stretch, marked by slipping poll numbers and a disappointing jobs report. Among Republicans, however, the greatest concern is the growing fear of a defeat in the 2026 midterm elections.

These challenges are compounded by a string of unwelcome headlines for Trump, ranging from a controversial profile of his chief of staff to reactions to his remarks following the death of filmmaker Rob Reiner. At the same time, he faces mounting foreign policy pressures, including a military escalation in the Caribbean amid rising tensions with Venezuela, a high-profile trip to Asia to discuss trade with foreign leaders, and a war in Ukraine that remains unresolved.

Between promises and policies, Trump seeks to improve his image

Last Wednesday, the president delivered a nearly 20-minute prime-time address in a more formal, scripted tone than his almost daily appearances from the Oval Office. In the speech, he claimed that inflation had been brought under control and predicted that prices for “electricity and everything else will drop dramatically.”

He also said he would soon unveil a housing reform plan aimed at addressing a growing affordability crisis. Housing, along with energy prices and the overall cost of living, is expected to be central issues as Republicans prepare for the 2026 legislative elections.

On Thursday, Trump approved the distribution of $1,776 checks to active-duty service members and designated the days before and after Christmas as federal holidays for 2025—a surprise move for Americans preparing for the year-end holiday season.

He also sought to win back support from the cannabis industry by easing regulations on marijuana use and went as far as authorizing a new mission to send astronauts back to the Moon.

In a development favorable to Trump, the board of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts—stacked with allies handpicked by the president—voted on Thursday to rename the Washington venue the Trump-Kennedy Center.

Mexican Peso Ends Flat Against the Dollar After Banxico Rate Cut

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The widely anticipated rate cut left markets largely unmoved, shifting attention to the central bank’s outlook for next year.

The Mexican peso finished Thursday’s session with minimal changes against the U.S. dollar. The local currency edged slightly higher as markets digested economic data from Mexico and the United States, while focusing on a well-telegraphed interest rate cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

The exchange rate closed at 18.0032 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.0154 in the previous session, according to official Banxico data. This represented a modest gain of 1.22 centavos, or 0.07%.

During the session, the dollar traded within a range of 18.0243 at the high and 17.9609 at the low. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.04% to 98.44.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Banxico Cuts Rates Again

Banxico announced a 25-basis-point cut to its benchmark interest rate, its twelfth consecutive reduction, bringing the rate to 7%. The move was widely priced in by markets. The decision was split, with four board members voting in favor of the cut and one—Jonathan Heath—voting to keep rates unchanged.

Looking ahead, policymakers left the door open to further easing, while stressing that future decisions will depend on factors that could reignite inflationary pressures.

The central bank highlighted the peso’s appreciation since its previous meeting and warned of weak economic growth, citing uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions as “significant downside risks.”

On inflation, Banxico noted that headline inflation rose from 3.63% in early October to 3.80% in November, while core inflation increased from 4.24% to 4.43%, driven mainly by non-food goods. However, inflation expectations for 2025 declined.

Overall, Banxico deemed it appropriate to continue the rate-cutting cycle, taking into account the inflation outlook, the stronger peso, subdued economic activity, and potential impacts from changes in trade policy.

Economic Data in Focus

In the United States, consumer prices rose less than expected in the year through November. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release monthly inflation figures due to disruptions caused by a prolonged government shutdown.

On the domestic front, Mexico’s retail sales rose 0.4% month over month in October, after remaining flat in September, and posted an annual increase of 3.5%. This marked the tenth consecutive month of year-over-year growth.

Inflation in the U.S. Falls to 2.7%, Below Expectations

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below the 3% level recorded in September. Markets had expected inflation of 3.1%, but the figure surprised to the downside.

Inflation came lower than expected.

Lingering effects from the government shutdown continue to cloud the data. U.S. inflation rose less than expected in November. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.7% year over year, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the figure marks a deceleration from September’s 3% reading and came in below the 3.1% forecast by market analysts.

Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes volatile components such as food and energy—rose 2.6% year over year in November, also below expectations that hovered near 3%. By comparison, headline CPI had increased 3% over the 12 months through September.

Questions over data reliability

Economists cautioned that the figures should be interpreted carefully, as they are the first inflation readings released since the federal government shutdown ended in mid-November.

Analysts noted that the softer-than-expected CPI reading may partly reflect delays in data collection toward the end of the month, when retailers offered seasonal holiday discounts. As a result, they anticipate a potential acceleration in inflation in December.

Market impact

Given the government shutdown and the lack of fully reliable data, today’s inflation reading is likely to be met with some skepticism. Still, it clearly supports the debate over the pace and magnitude of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Markets had previously priced in two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026—one in April and another between July and September—but are now increasingly factoring in a third cut of the same size in December.

U.S. Treasury bonds reflected the shift in expectations, with 2-year and 10-year yields trading at 3.45% and 4.11%, respectively, showing compressions of 3–4 basis points. Equity markets also reacted positively, as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures accelerated following the inflation release.

The October “data black hole”

The BLS did not publish October CPI figures after the 43-day government shutdown prevented data collection during that month. As a result, the agency canceled the release, noting that price data could not be gathered retroactively.

The statistics office acknowledged that it “cannot provide specific guidance to data users on how to interpret the missing October observations.”

The prolonged shutdown also disrupted labor market data, as the U.S. government failed to release the October unemployment rate—for the first time in the country’s history.

S&P Upgrades Argentina’s Sovereign Debt Rating

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The rating was raised from CCC to CCC+, the same level seen in the final year of the previous administration.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech.

Markets believe that the removal of capital controls could pave the way for further upgrades.

S&P Global Ratings upgraded Argentina’s long-term sovereign debt rating on Wednesday from CCC to CCC+, citing lower inflation, a sustained fiscal surplus, and stronger political backing following the recent legislative elections.

In its report, the rating agency stated that the outlook on Argentina’s debt remains “stable,” although market participants expect it could be revised to “positive” if current trends continue.

The new rating matches Argentina’s standing in 2023, when country risk stood near 2,000 basis points—compared with below 570 today—highlighting a disconnect that investors attribute to pending structural reforms, particularly in the foreign exchange regime. Many believe further progress, such as the elimination of capital controls, would justify a stronger rating.

In line with this view, financial analyst Leonardo Svirsky said that “based on current market pricing and Argentina’s policy performance, the rating should be significantly higher.” He added that “at a minimum, it should be BB, and Morgan Stanley should upgrade Argentina back to emerging market status.”

S&P raised the foreign-currency credit rating from CCC to CCC+, while the local-currency rating was upgraded from SD (selective default) to CCC+.

Argentina Gradually Returns to International Debt Markets

It is worth noting that last week Argentina returned to international dollar debt markets for the first time in eight years. Ahead of major maturities in January, the country raised USD 1 billion through a four-year bond issued at a yield of 9.26%.

The Ministry of Economy now faces the challenge of securing financing without a substantial buildup of international reserves, which explains why the bond’s yield is still considered high by New York standards. In this context, the government announced this week that starting in 2026 it will implement a plan to rebuild reserves, linked to rising demand for pesos and increased foreign currency inflows through the official foreign exchange market.

Bitcoin Remains Stuck at $87.500 but Altcoins Slide Down

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The world’s leading cryptocurrency is finding stability, but markets are waiting for the U.S. inflation report to gauge the next bout of volatility.

Bitcoin's price movement is unpredictable right now.
Bitcoin’s price movement is unpredictable right now.

The crypto market is trading broadly lower, with Bitcoin (BTC) as the main exception. BTC is posting modest gains and hovering around $87,139, according to Binance. Investor sentiment remains cautious after disappointment over the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and continued outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, with attention now firmly focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Ethereum (ETH) is down 2.5% at $2,854, while altcoins are seeing widespread losses. BNB is slipping 2.5%, Ripple (XRP) is down 2.2%, and Solana (SOL) is leading declines with a 3.1% drop.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Can Bitcoin Still Reach a New All-Time High?

While it may seem unrealistic for Bitcoin to surpass the $126,272 level amid economic uncertainty and tight liquidity weighing on risk assets, some analysts argue otherwise.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Grayscale Research believe Bitcoin will exceed its previous peak, even though 2026 is widely expected to be a year of consolidation or pullback. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle tied to halving events, with three years of strong gains followed by sharp corrections.

Hougan argues that the forces behind past cycles have weakened, while new structural drivers are emerging. “We believe the wave of institutional capital that began entering the space with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will accelerate in 2026, as platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch begin allocating,” he said.

In what analysts call the “institutional era,” Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs, breaking away from its traditional four-year cycle.

Federal Reserve Signals in Focus

U.S. interest rates remain above their theoretical neutral level, while inflation—still above target—is expected to ease in the coming months, according to Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

Speaking to CNBC, Waller suggested the Fed’s policy rate is “perhaps 50 to 100 basis points above neutral,” referring to a level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity. “We still have some room to ease,” he said.

His comments follow the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut last week, which brought the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, as policymakers aimed to support the labor market despite persistent—though stable—inflation pressures.

Data released this week, delayed by a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and therefore not considered at the Fed’s December meeting, showed stronger-than-expected job growth in November, while the unemployment rate rose slightly more than anticipated.

Uncertainty now surrounds the Fed’s next move in early 2026. CME’s FedWatch tool currently assigns a roughly 73% probability that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January meeting.

Mexican Peso Pulls Back After 17-Month High

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The peso slipped as the U.S. dollar rebounded, amid uncertainty over the future path of the Fed’s key rate and one day ahead of Mexico’s local monetary policy decision.

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar in Wednesday’s session. The local currency pulled back as the greenback regained strength, with markets weighing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and ahead of Thursday’s domestic policy announcement.

Mexican Peso – U.S. Dollar Outlook

The exchange rate closed at 18.0154 pesos per dollar. Compared with Tuesday’s close of 17.9509, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the move represented a loss of 6.45 cents, or 0.26%.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 18.0499 and a low of 17.9572 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.17% to 98.39 points.

The peso retreated after its recent positive streak and a weaker dollar pushed it on Tuesday to its strongest level since July 2024 (a 17-month high). Wednesday’s decline came alongside a renewed strengthening of the dollar, as markets focused on signals from the Fed.

Earlier in the day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said there was still room for interest rate cuts due to concerns about a softening labor market, following three consecutive adjustments. While a divided Fed cut rates last week, it also signaled that further reductions are unlikely in the near term. Markets are now awaiting remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

Data of Mexico

On the local front, investors are looking ahead to Banxico’s final monetary policy decision of the year on Thursday. Analysts expect the central bank to deliver a twelfth consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, which would bring the benchmark rate down to 7%.

Meanwhile, the currency pair continues to trade with low volume and limited conviction, hovering around the 18-peso level, which has held as initial resistance. Thin interest and small flows are contributing to notable liquidity gaps.

Wall Street Bets Microsoft Could Reach a $5 Trillion Market Cap

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Analysts argue that the real story lies in how the tech giant has established its own independent role in the AI market.

Microsoft Stock Climbs to all time highs.

Microsoft is drawing growing attention on Wall Street thanks to its position in the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution—and not solely because of its relationship with OpenAI. As a result, analysts believe the company could eventually reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion.

While the two companies remain closely linked, experts say the more compelling narrative is how Microsoft has built an independent foothold in AI, leveraging multiple technological fronts to expand both its business and its market value.

For many Wall Street executives, the Satya Nadella–led tech giant is well positioned to jump to a $5 trillion market cap in 2026, up from roughly $3.6 trillion today, driven by the integration of AI across its core products and services.

Such growth would reflect Microsoft’s ability to capitalize on rising demand for AI technologies without relying entirely on a single partner or underlying model.

Microsoft beyond OpenAI

The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI dates back to 2019, when Microsoft made an initial $1 billion investment in the then-emerging AI startup led by Sam Altman.

That commitment later expanded to nearly $13 billion, as confirmed by Nadella himself, positioning Microsoft as the exclusive provider of cloud infrastructure and computing power to train and deploy OpenAI’s most advanced models.

The partnership gave Microsoft preferential access to cutting-edge AI technologies, while OpenAI benefited from Azure’s massive cloud platform to scale its models and services.

However, industry experts note that Microsoft no longer depends solely on OpenAI for its AI strategy. The company is also developing its own capabilities and collaborating with a wide range of technology partners, thereby diversifying its sources of innovation and growth.

“Microsoft has such a dominant presence across its entire suite that it will be able to integrate and effectively become a copilot in that sense,” said Logan Brown, founder of software development platform Soxton.AI.

A strong technology ecosystem

Part of Microsoft’s strength lies in its combination of operating systems (such as Windows), cloud services (Azure), and AI-powered tools (like Copilot), which are seeing growing adoption among businesses and consumers alike.

The broad integration of AI into widely used products reinforces investor confidence in the durability of Microsoft’s business model and its competitive edge over other tech giants.

In addition, key figures in the industry, including Bill Gates, have noted that while AI is advancing rapidly, there remains significant uncertainty around how the technology will evolve in the years ahead.

Even so, Gates views Microsoft as a clear contender in the race to shape the future of AI, reinforcing the narrative that the company is well positioned beyond its partnership with OpenAI.

The combination of strategic investments, internal development, and technological alliances has been well received by analysts. Expectations that Microsoft can expand its market value and cement its leadership in artificial intelligence have resonated on Wall Street, which sees the company as a player capable of sustaining—and increasing—its relevance in the next digital era.