U.S. Inflation Jumps to 3.8% Amid Fuel Price Shock

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The April reading came in above market expectations, which had already anticipated a sharp acceleration compared to March. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, also picked up.

Oil prices shocked the USA and the world.

U.S. inflation accelerated more than expected in April, rising 3.8% year-over-year and marking its largest jump since May 2023. The increase was driven largely by a surge in fuel prices, as the war in the Middle East disrupted global energy supply chains.

Markets were caught off guard by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, as analysts had forecast a 3.7% annual increase. On a monthly basis, however, the headline figure matched expectations at +0.6%.

Energy prices drive the inflation shock

Energy prices once again played a central role. While gasoline and fuel oil prices rose around 5% month-over-month in April — compared with a 21% spike in March — the year-over-year picture remains extreme, with gasoline up 28.4% and fuel oil surging 54.3%.

Another key reading was core inflation, which excludes food and energy. It rose 2.8% year-over-year, above both the 2.7% forecast and March’s 2.6%. On a monthly basis, core inflation also surprised to the upside, increasing 0.4%, double the pace of March.

The data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics heightened concerns among investors. In recent days, markets had already begun pricing out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, despite the upcoming transition to new Fed leadership under Kevin Warsh, selected by Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell.

In fact, traders are now even assigning a small probability to a rate hike toward the end of the year, reflecting growing concern that inflation may remain stickier than previously expected.

Which Wall Street CEOs Are Traveling With Trump to China?

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. President Donald Trump will arrive in Beijing this week alongside top executives from Tesla, Apple, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Boeing to discuss trade, technology, artificial intelligence, and energy with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The summit comes amid the war in the Middle East and escalating technological tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Trump's deadline for new deals is approaching. — Trump’s deadline for new deals is approaching.

Trump’s visit to China is drawing intense attention from global markets and the corporate world alike. The White House confirmed that the president will travel with a powerful business delegation featuring some of the most influential CEOs from Wall Street and Silicon Valley, highlighting the economic and strategic importance of the meeting with Xi.

Among the executives expected to join the trip are Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX; Tim Cook, Apple’s outgoing CEO; and Larry Fink. Representatives from Boeing, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Micron Technology, and Blackstone will also be part of the delegation.

The trip will mark the first official visit by a U.S. president to China in nearly a decade and takes place amid a particularly fragile geopolitical backdrop shaped by the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, partial disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and rising trade and technology tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Trade, AI, semiconductors and energy on the agenda

The meeting between Trump and Xi — originally scheduled for March but delayed due to the escalation in the Middle East — is expected to cover a broad agenda, including:

bilateral trade,
artificial intelligence,
rare earth exports,
semiconductors,
energy,
Taiwan,
and the conflict with Iran.

The makeup of the delegation also reflects the sectors currently viewed as strategic priorities for the White House: technology, finance, defense, energy, and global supply chains.

Alongside Musk, Cook, and Fink, the delegation will also include:

Kelly Ortberg, CEO of Boeing;
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs;
Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup;
Michael Miebach, CEO of Mastercard;
Cristiano Amon, CEO of Qualcomm;
and Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone.

Boeing deal and notable absences draw attention

Boeing’s presence is particularly notable after reports emerged suggesting the company could finalize one of the largest commercial agreements in its history during the visit: the sale of 500 737 Max aircraft to China.

According to Bloomberg, the announcement could coincide with the presidential meeting as part of broader efforts to reset commercial relations between the two superpowers.

Beyond the size of the delegation, markets have also focused on several notable absences — most prominently Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA.

Bitcoin Holds Above $80,000 Despite Weak U.S. Inflation Data

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The crypto market traded cautiously on Tuesday, mirroring the tone seen across traditional financial markets.

Bitcoin fell 0.5% but managed to hold near the $80,000 level, while Ethereum faced heavier pressure, dropping 2% over the past 24 hours and slipping below $2,300. The broader altcoin market showed mixed performance, with BNB rising around 1.2%, while TRON and XRP posted losses of up to 0.7%.

Geopolitical tensions continue to drive market sentiment. According to David Morrison, senior analyst at Trade Nation, recent market moves have been heavily influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump rejecting Iran’s response to a U.S.-backed peace proposal.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Investors are also closely watching Trump’s upcoming trip to China for talks with Xi Jinping, although expectations for meaningful progress remain low. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that the conflict remains far from resolved.

After a relatively stable weekend, Bitcoin suddenly dropped to around $80,250 before rebounding above $82,000. Profit-taking later pushed the cryptocurrency back below the $80,000 mark, although it quickly recovered and appears to be holding that level as key support.

April CPI data takes center stage

Markets also reacted to the release of April’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year — the highest reading in nearly three years. The impact of the war with Iran and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz were clearly reflected in energy prices.

The stronger-than-expected inflation data could reduce expectations for near-term monetary easing and push bond yields higher, reinforcing a more defensive positioning across global markets.

Under that scenario, speculative assets — including cryptocurrencies — could face additional short-term pressure as capital rotates toward the strength of the U.S. dollar and yield-focused investments. The market reaction also highlights how closely digital assets are now trading in line with broader macroeconomic conditions and global liquidity expectations.

Intel Shares Have Surged Nearly 600% in Less Than a Year

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Intel now has a market capitalization of $650 billion and ranks among the world’s 20 largest companies.

Intel chips are in extremely high demand.

Over the past year, the company has massively outperformed the S&P 500 and other major stock indexes, becoming one of the market’s top-performing stocks. The main drivers behind the rally have been the arrival of a new CEO and a strategic overhaul that is pushing the chipmaker back toward industry leadership.

From its late-July 2025 low to today, Intel shares — including its Argentine Cedears — have surged 570% in dollar terms. Year-to-date alone, the stock is up roughly 230%, while gains over the past month exceed 103%.

As a result, Intel’s market capitalization has climbed to $650 billion, compared to less than $90 billion in mid-2025.

Why Intel shares are soaring

Several factors explain the dramatic rally: a stronger-than-expected operational recovery, the artificial intelligence boom, strategic agreements with major tech companies, and strong support from the U.S. government.

The most recent catalyst was news of a preliminary agreement between Intel and Apple to manufacture chips designed by the iPhone maker.

According to reports published this week, the deal would allow Apple to diversify suppliers and reduce its dependence on TSMC, while giving Intel a massive new customer for its foundry business. Following the news, Intel shares jumped nearly 15% in a single session.

Investors have also welcomed the strategic shift led by new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took over in 2025. Market participants see Tan as an executive with a proven track record of successful restructurings in the tech industry and believe he can restore Intel’s competitiveness against rivals such as NVIDIA and AMD.

A stronger business outlook

Intel’s financial results have also improved significantly. In the first quarter of 2026, the company surprised Wall Street with earnings and revenue above expectations. Its data center business grew 22% year-over-year, driven by demand for AI-related infrastructure.

The company has also started to reestablish itself as a relevant player in CPUs for AI applications, an area where it had lost ground to Nvidia.

Another key factor is political and industrial support from the United States. Washington has launched multi-billion-dollar initiatives to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing, making Intel a central part of that strategy.

The U.S. government even acquired a stake of nearly 10% in the company in an effort to revitalize domestic production of advanced chips.

In addition, Intel has secured new customers for its foundry division, including companies tied to cloud computing, defense, and artificial intelligence. The market increasingly believes Intel could finally compete with TSMC in advanced manufacturing — something that seemed highly unlikely just two years ago.

For these reasons, Intel’s bullish momentum could continue, potentially pushing the company into the exclusive trillion-dollar market capitalization club.

Wall Street Opens Higher, Lifted by Semiconductor Stocks

Posted on May 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, while Wall Street reacted cautiously to Donald Trump’s latest remarks, even as major indexes remained near record highs.

The main Wall Street indexes erased early losses and closed slightly higher on Monday, May 11, supported by gains in semiconductor stocks. Still, moves were limited following another diplomatic setback between Washington and Tehran. Investors also remained cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later this week, which could reflect the sharp rise in oil prices caused by the war.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 49,704.34 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 7,412.87, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.1% to 26,274.13.

[[SPX-graph]]

Donald Trump rejects Iran’s response, says ceasefire is “incredibly weak”

Over the weekend, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had formally responded to a U.S. proposal aimed at ending the conflict, which has now lasted more than two months. The response demanded a halt to fighting on all fronts, recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. compensation for war-related damages.

U.S. President Donald Trump reacted to Iran’s response within hours, writing on social media: “I don’t like it; it’s totally unacceptable.” Speaking to reporters at the start of the week, he added: “The plan is that they cannot have nuclear weapons, and they didn’t say that,” describing the proposal as “foolish.”

Trump claimed that Iran had agreed two days earlier to halt uranium enrichment and requested that the United States remove its nuclear material — which the Republican president referred to as “nuclear dust.” However, he said Tehran later reversed course and omitted any reference to nuclear activities in the proposal it submitted. In that context, Trump described the current ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran as “weak” and in a “critical situation.”

Trump also told Fox News that he was considering reviving “Project Liberty” to help guarantee the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.

Oil prices climbed following the latest diplomatic setback. July Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose 3% to $104.34 per barrel, while June U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 2.9% to $98.21 per barrel.

[[USOIL-graph]]

U.S. inflation data in focus

Beyond the Middle East, traders were also preparing for key U.S. inflation data, with the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

The sharp rise in oil prices driven by the conflict with Iran has already pushed gasoline prices higher across U.S. gas stations, contributing to an acceleration in headline CPI and PPI readings in March. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, have so far remained relatively unaffected.

The Federal Reserve and monetary policy analysts are expected to closely monitor the inflation figures, especially after last week’s strong April jobs report suggested that the labor market is not currently a major concern for policymakers.

Crypto Market Shows Resilience as Bitcoin Holds Above $81,000

Posted on May 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Bitcoin (BTC) started the week largely unchanged, trading around $81,500 after briefly touching $82,000 over the weekend — its highest level since March.

The BTC rate increased rapidly this week as conflict continued in Iran.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) edged slightly lower to $2,330. Despite a modest slowdown in recent gains, the crypto market is showing resilience in the face of global geopolitical uncertainty, while also building anticipation around progress on the so-called Clarity Act.

Bitcoin continues to hold above $81,000 despite renewed pressure on global risk assets, driven by rising oil prices and inflation concerns. ETF inflows and sustained institutional positioning are helping stabilize BTC, even as crude oil trades near the $92–$100 range due to supply risks stemming from the Middle East.

The market is now watching whether Bitcoin can extend its momentum toward the $85,000 level, provided macroeconomic conditions remain stable.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Ethereum, meanwhile, continues to underperform Bitcoin on a relative basis. The key level for ETH remains above $2,400, which would signal a stronger return of risk appetite among major digital assets.

The broader altcoin market is showing mixed performance: Solana and BNB are posting daily gains, while Tron and XRP are lagging. In XRP’s case, however, it has regained the fourth position by market capitalization, overtaking Binance Coin (BNB).

Clarity Act: Senate hearing set for May 14

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee confirmed it will review crypto market structure legislation — known as the Clarity Act — on May 14. The bill aims primarily to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins and to define when a digital token qualifies as a security, a commodity, or another category, while clarifying the jurisdiction of the SEC and the CFTC over the sector.

Any bill approved by the Senate would still need to be reconciled with the House of Representatives’ version — the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, passed in July with bipartisan support by a 294–134 vote — before potentially reaching Donald Trump’s desk.

Geopolitical tensions: Iran and Israel remain key sources of uncertainty

Beyond crypto markets, geopolitical tensions continue to add volatility. Although the U.S. and Iran have confirmed that the ceasefire remains in place, peace negotiations remain stalled. Donald Trump described Iran’s latest proposal as “completely unacceptable,” while Tehran accused Washington of making “unreasonable demands.”

Adding to the uncertainty, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Sunday that the war “is not over” unless Iran withdraws its enriched uranium, warning that the use of force has not been ruled out to achieve that outcome.

Goldman Sachs Now Expects Fed Cut in December

Posted on May 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Major banks are increasingly divided between those still expecting at least one Fed rate cut and those now ruling out any monetary easing in 2026, as the conflict in the Middle East continues to push up energy prices and harden the Federal Reserve’s stance.

The logo for Goldman Sachs is seen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., November 17, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/Files

Just days before Kevin Warsh takes office as the new chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Goldman Sachs pushed back its forecast for rate cuts to December this year and March 2027, arguing that rising energy costs are keeping inflation well above the central bank’s 2% target.

Previously, the bank had expected cuts in September and December. But the war in the Middle East — now entering its tenth week — has changed the outlook. Goldman is not alone. Major Wall Street investment banks have either downgraded or completely abandoned expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

“The pass-through from higher energy costs is likely to keep core PCE inflation closer to 3% than 2% throughout the year,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note dated May 8.

As a result, they argued that “a combination of softer monthly inflation data, once the oil crisis fades, and further weakening in the labor market will probably be necessary for the FOMC to cut rates this year.”

Major banks split on Fed outlook

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged at its April 29 meeting, in an 8-4 vote — the narrowest split since 1992 — with inflation still running well above target. Meanwhile, market participants expect the Fed to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% range through the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Wall Street’s outlook is now highly fragmented. Firms such as BNP Paribas, HSBC, JP Morgan, and RBC expect no rate cuts in 2026. Others, including Jefferies, Nomura, and Wells Fargo, still forecast a first cut in September. At the more hawkish end, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley see cuts delayed until mid-2027 or even early 2027, respectively.

Goldman, for its part, is not ruling out an even later timeline. “If the labor market does not weaken sufficiently this year, we would expect the FOMC to deliver its final two cuts in 2027, when we forecast core inflation returning to the 2% target,” the bank added.

Mexican Peso Strengthens Against the Dollar, Posts 1.45% Weekly Gain

Posted on May 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso strengthened on Friday after solid U.S. labor data helped improve risk sentiment, closing the week with cumulative gains and marking its strongest finish since late February.

The Mexican currency appreciated in Friday’s trading session, supported by stronger-than-expected employment figures in the United States. The peso ended the week higher, reaching its best closing level since late February.

The exchange rate settled at 17.1934 pesos per dollar, compared with 17.2693 in the previous session, according to official data from Banco de México (Banxico). This represented a daily gain of 7.59 cents, or 0.44%.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.3295 and a low of 17.1918. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.17% to 97.90 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 jobs in April, well above economists’ expectations of around 62,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.

Weekly gain of 25 cents

Over the week, the Mexican peso appreciated alongside other risk-sensitive assets, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of progress toward a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

Friday’s close marked the strongest level for the peso since late February. Compared with LSEG’s reference rate of 17.4460 from the previous Friday (a holiday session without Banxico data), the currency gained 25.26 cents, or 1.45%.

In recent sessions, the USD/MXN pair has traded within a tight range between 17.30 and 17.19, with analysts noting a potential move toward the next support level at 17.12. A break below that threshold could accelerate further peso appreciation.

Traders also remained focused on developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he expected a response from Iran, potentially on Friday, regarding a proposal to end the conflict.

Looking ahead, U.S. inflation data due next week will be closely watched, as it could help shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, particularly amid rising energy-driven inflation pressures linked to higher oil prices.

Wall Street Hits Record Highs, Led by Semiconductors

Posted on May 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Major indices surged on strong employment data that eased concerns over the U.S. economy, while semiconductor stocks led the rally.

However, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz kept investors on edge due to potential implications for oil prices and inflation.

New York equities climbed to record highs on Friday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses, driven by gains in semiconductor shares and a stronger-than-expected April U.S. jobs report.

Market participants also closely monitored developments in the Middle East, as renewed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz kept traders cautious.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02% to 49,609.04 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.81% to 7,396.79 points, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.71% to 26,247.08 points.

[[SPX-graph]]

Strong jobs data, weak consumer sentiment

Attention on Friday was centered on the economic calendar, particularly the April employment report.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 last month, exceeding economists’ expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%.

Although widely anticipated, the report comes at a time when investors and policymakers are increasingly focused on inflation risks, driven in part by rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions. Analysts noted that April’s data suggested potential downward pressure on wage growth due to inflation dynamics.

“Strong job growth in April extends the trend of solid employment gains since the start of the year. The labor market is shifting from low hiring and low turnover to more moderate hiring and turnover. This is encouraging news after business and consumer surveys showed rising anxiety related to the Iran conflict in recent readings,” said Bill Adams, Chief Economist for the U.S. at Fifth Third Commercial Bank.

On the consumer side, the University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment fell to 48.2 in May from 49.8 in April, according to preliminary data, marking a record low.

Consumers continue to face persistent price pressures, particularly from surging gasoline costs.

According to the University of Michigan, developments in the Middle East are unlikely to meaningfully improve sentiment until supply disruptions ease and energy prices stabilize.

U.S. and Iran tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz

Geopolitical tensions in and around the Strait of Hormuz remain a key concern for investors.

Earlier this week, the United States launched and later suspended “Operation Freedom Project,” aimed at securing safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait. Meanwhile, U.S. forces have maintained pressure on Iran by restricting access to Iranian ports and coastline since mid-April.

[[USOIL-graph]]

On Friday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that it struck and disabled two empty Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempting to enter an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM also said it had disabled another empty tanker on Wednesday.

The escalation comes as Iran continues reviewing a new one-page proposal containing 14 points aimed at ending the conflict, with no final response yet delivered.

Former President Donald Trump told ABC News that the recent strikes were “just a friendly tap,” adding that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place. He later posted on social media that the U.S. would respond “much harder and with far greater force in the future if they don’t sign the deal quickly.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that a response from Iran was expected by the deadline, though none had been received.

In this context, oil prices edged higher. Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 1.4% to $101.41 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June delivery gained 1.1% to $95.84 per barrel.

Strong U.S. Job Growth Further Reduces Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts

Posted on May 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

For the second consecutive month, U.S. job growth exceeded Wall Street expectations, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated well into 2026—and possibly beyond.

The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, matching market forecasts.

The payroll figure was nearly double the 65,000 jobs expected by analysts. In addition, March payroll data was revised higher to 185,000 jobs from the previously reported 178,000.

The back-to-back six-figure employment gains marked the first such streak since late 2024.

Labor Market Remains Resilient

The stronger-than-expected data further reduced pressure on the Fed to begin cutting interest rates anytime soon.

Although the headline unemployment rate remained stable for a second straight month, broader labor market indicators showed some signs of cooling.

The underemployment rate—which includes workers seeking more hours or employed below their skill level—rose 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%.

That increase suggests a growing number of workers are struggling to secure full-time employment or positions that match their qualifications, often an early signal of softening labor market conditions.

Wage Growth Still Trails Inflation

Average monthly wage growth came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected by economists and matching March’s relatively weak reading.

With the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index rising 0.7% in March, wage gains continue to lag inflation, meaning real purchasing power remains under pressure.

Health Care and Logistics Lead Hiring

The largest gains in employment came from the health care, transportation, and warehousing sectors, which helped lift overall payroll growth.

Hiring in health care and education once again accounted for a substantial share of total job creation, continuing a pattern seen throughout recent months.

One of the market’s main concerns had been that payroll growth was becoming overly dependent on health care and social assistance jobs. April’s report partially eased those fears by showing broader contributions from logistics and transportation.