Global Markets Trade Cautiously Following the Asia Holiday

Posted on February 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Europe’s main equity indices are edging higher, while the United States returns to trading after the Presidents’ Day holiday.

Tuesday’s global session is unfolding calmly, with low trading volumes across Asian markets due to the Lunar New Year holiday. At the same time, the reopening of U.S. markets is fostering caution among investors, particularly amid ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which have generated mixed signals in oil prices.

Germany’s DAX is up 0.90%, while France’s CAC 40 gains 0.50%. Both the eurozone and the UK—where the FTSE 100 rises 0.78%—remain constrained by the lack of reference pricing from the closure of markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rises 0.24%, although the Australian dollar weakened after the Reserve Bank of Australia signaled it would not rush into rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX index is stabilizing after a slight decline on Monday, rising 0.67% ahead of upcoming industrial production data.

[[DAX-graph]]

Japan Slides on Weak GDP Data

After Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in six quarters—shrinking 0.4% in the third quarter due to falling exports linked to higher U.S. tariffs under the administration of Donald Trump—the Nikkei 225 fell 0.42%.

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen weakened 0.3% against the dollar to ¥153.05 per dollar. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is under pressure to push for more aggressive fiscal stimulus, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to meet in March, where interest rates are expected to remain low.

Rate-hike expectations have softened following the GDP data, with markets now pricing in just 4 basis points for March and 16 basis points for April. This week’s Japan inflation data will be key in determining whether pressure on local markets deepens or begins to ease.

U.S. Market Remains Cautious

U.S. equities are posting modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.18% and the Nasdaq higher by 0.10%.

At the same time, negotiations between the United States and Iran aimed at easing oil-market tensions are keeping investor sentiment cautious. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is up 0.95%, while Brent futures slipped 0.5% during the Asian trading session, after rising 1.33% on Monday.

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Global Investment Funds Double Down on Asia with Record Purchases

Posted on February 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to the trading desk at Goldman Sachs Group, the region is standing out against the backdrop of a weakening U.S. dollar, with flows moving decisively into information technology, industrials, and other key sectors.

Emerging and developed Asian markets recorded the largest net buying by investment funds last week, fueling broad-based optimism across the region—particularly around artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure companies. This marked the biggest net purchase ever recorded by Goldman’s Prime Services trading desk, which has tracked these flows since 2016.

As investors respond to the softer U.S. dollar, Asia has emerged as the main destination for global equity flows, with emerging markets leading the trend.

From a sector perspective, analysts noted that information technology, industrials, consumer staples, and materials saw net buying, while consumer discretionary, communication services, and financials were the most heavily sold sectors.

Emerging Markets Gain Momentum in 2026

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 11% year-to-date, while South Korea’s Kospi has surged more than 30%, driven by major manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Inc.. This contrasts sharply with a 0.1% decline in the S&P 500 as of last Friday’s close.

Goldman analysts also highlighted a pronounced positioning imbalance in the market, with long positions outpacing short hedges by a ratio of 8.4 to 1.

Meanwhile, hedge funds sold U.S. real estate equities for the third consecutive week, at the fastest pace since September 2022, signaling continued caution toward the United States property sector.

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Mexican Peso Edges Lower Against the Dollar in a Low-Activity Session

Posted on February 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

In a session marked by reduced trading activity due to the U.S. market holiday, the Mexican peso slipped slightly as investors awaited key economic information.

The Mexican peso weakened modestly against the dollar in Monday’s trading. With United States markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, liquidity was thin, and the local currency eased as investors positioned ahead of upcoming economic releases.

The exchange rate closed at 17.1588 pesos per dollar. Compared with Friday’s close of 17.1443, based on official data from Banco de México (Banxico), the move represented a loss of 1.45 centavos, or 0.09%.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.1818 at the session high and 17.1445 at the low. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), published by the Intercontinental Exchange, rose 0.15% to 97.07, reflecting broader dollar strength against a basket of six major currencies.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The peso was pressured by the firmer dollar in a context of a light economic calendar in both Mexico and the United States. Key technical levels are seen at 17.08 as support and 17.30 as resistance.

U.S. markets remained closed on Monday due to Presidents’ Day, further reducing global liquidity. Meanwhile, traders are preparing for the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve and Banxico later in the week.

Both central banks paused interest rate cuts at their most recent meetings—the Fed after three moves, and Banxico after a prolonged easing cycle. Global and local market participants will be looking for clearer guidance on inflation expectations and the future path of monetary policy.

Overall, the exchange rate begins the week with no major changes and low trading volume, hovering around an average of 17.16, amid multiple global holidays, including Presidents’ Day in the U.S., Lunar New Year in China, and Carnival in Brazil.

European Markets Close Mixed in a Session Without China and the U.S.

Posted on February 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Europe’s main stock indices edged slightly lower in a session marked by weak global liquidity.

With markets in both the United States and China closed for holidays, European equities traded mixed, weighed down by sharp losses in German stocks that dragged the pan-European STOXX index into mild negative territory.

The benchmark European index slipped 0.11%, reflecting investor caution ahead of the release of eurozone industrial production data and a new round of corporate earnings reports.

Among the top gainers were L’Oréal (+3.4%), KONE Oyj (+2.78%), and Santander (+2.53%).
On the downside, Siemens (-6.41%), EssilorLuxottica (-4.8%), and Kering (-4.75%) led the declines.

At the national level, Germany’s DAX fell 0.41%, while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.06%. Outside the eurozone, the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.26%, though moves were muted by low global liquidity, amplified by the closure of Wall Street due to the U.S. holiday.

[[DAX-graph]]

Asia in Focus: Mixed Activity and Market Closures

In Asia, markets also showed a mixed performance. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.25% following disappointing GDP data, while other markets such as Hong Kong posted moderate gains (+0.52%) in shortened trading sessions.

Several exchanges in China, South Korea, and Taiwan remained closed for the Lunar New Year, limiting regional reference points for European traders.

Gold Retreats on a Stronger Dollar

In commodities, gold fell 0.66% on Monday to $5,013.10 per ounce, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar, which gained 0.16% on the day. Analysts noted that a stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated assets more expensive for foreign investors and reduces gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

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Bitcoin Fails to Reclaim $70,000 amid U.S. Regulatory Tensions

Posted on February 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The unease across the crypto ecosystem stands in sharp contrast to the strong macroeconomic data released in the United States late last week—raising the question of what the sector is actually paying attention to.

Bitcoin is in a dangerous position that could lead to much further declines.

Broad-based declines continue across the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading comfortably below the $70,000 level at the start of the week—a pattern mirrored across most major altcoins.

BTC is down 0.7% over the past 24 hours, slipping to $68,500, while Ethereum (ETH) is falling more than 1.6%, breaking below the $2,000 mark.
Altcoins show a similar picture: Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Chainlink (LINK) are posting declines in line with the two largest cryptocurrencies. The only exceptions are Tron and Bitcoin Cash, which are showing modest gains of around 0.4%–0.5%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to signal “extreme fear,” hovering at levels comparable to those seen during the collapse of the FTX exchange in late 2022.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Macroeconomic Data in Focus

This negative sentiment contrasts with the positive macroeconomic signals released in the U.S. at the end of last week. First, the January jobs report showed a labor market stronger than expected. Second, inflation data revealed that headline inflation slowed to 2.4% in January, while core inflation eased to its lowest level since 2021.

This week, two key U.S. indicators will be closely watched: fourth-quarter GDP and, more importantly, the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator—the inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve for guiding monetary policy.

In addition, the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting will be released on Wednesday, potentially offering further insight into how the central bank views the outlook for the world’s largest economy.

Regulatory Uncertainty and the “Clarity” Issue

Another source of uncertainty for the crypto ecosystem is the lack of clarity surrounding the Clarity Act, a legislative proposal aimed at defining the regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S. The bill has become a point of contention within the industry itself, with Coinbase emerging as one of its main critics.

In fact, the exchange reported its first negative earnings result since 2023 at the end of last week, following the sharp market correction in late 2025. Notably, the only segment that remained profitable was the stablecoin-related business—ironically the area that would be most negatively impacted if the Clarity Act were approved.

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Gold and Silver Pull Back as Oil Rebounds amid Tight Global Liquidity

Posted on February 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Gold and silver have come off recent highs after weeks of elevated volatility, as some investors were forced to unwind leveraged positions.

Oil is rebounding while global economic activity is on the rise.

In contrast, hydrocarbons are moving higher, with oil rebounding on renewed geopolitical tensions.

On a session marked by low global liquidity—driven by the absence of Wall Street trading and closures across several Asian markets—precious metals are undergoing sharp corrections. Gold and silver are leading the declines, while oil is moving in the opposite direction, supported by rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

Gold futures are down nearly 1%, trading at $4,997 per ounce, after dramatic swings in recent weeks as leveraged investors were forced to liquidate positions. Silver is falling even more sharply, down 2.7% to $75.85 per ounce.
Meanwhile, copper declines 0.53% to $5.70, platinum falls 1.86% to $2,038.25, and palladium stands out as the exception, rising 2.78% to $1,750.75.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Geopolitical Tensions and OPEC Production

In the oil market, Brent crude is up 0.83% to $63.23 per barrel, while U.S. crude rises 0.88% to $63.31 per barrel.

One of the key drivers behind the price increase is growing speculation that OPEC is leaning toward resuming oil production increases starting in April, as the group prepares for peak seasonal demand. Price momentum is further reinforced by rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

[[USOIL-graph]]

According to Reuters, the production restart would allow Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leader, and other members such as the United Arab Emirates, to regain market share at a time when other OPEC+ members—such as Russia and Iran—are facing Western sanctions, while output in Kazakhstan is constrained by a series of operational disruptions.

In this context, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 850,000 barrels per day, although this still exceeds last year’s growth of 770,000 barrels per day.

U.S. Inflation Slows to 2.4%, While Core CPI Hits Its Lowest Level Since 2021

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Food, energy, and housing were key drivers behind the decline in the overall inflation rate. Among analysts, expectations are rising for three 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026.

The Consumer Price Index may shows declining inflation.

U.S. inflation came in at 2.4% year-over-year in January, slightly below market expectations and down from 2.7% in December. However, the most striking figure was the slowdown in core inflation, which fell to 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2021.

The data comes from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast by the market and also lower than December’s monthly increase.

Breaking the data down by components, food prices slowed to a 0.2% monthly increase from 0.7% in December, while energy prices fell 1.5%, mainly due to lower fuel costs. Among other key categories, transportation declined 0.3% month-over-month, while medical care rose 0.3%.

Analysts noted that the housing component—“one of the heaviest-weighted categories and one of the most resistant to disinflation in recent months”—rose just 0.2% monthly, down from 0.4% in December, driven by easing pressure in rental prices.

One of the most notable figures in the report was the Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) measure, which stood at 3.25% year-over-year, its lowest level since October 2021, signaling that housing affordability continues to improve—albeit at a very gradual pace.

Fed: Markets Renew Hopes for More Than Two Rate Cuts

Analysts argued that the inflation report “is clearly positive because, after Wednesday’s strong January employment report — and amid a run of economic data that has consistently surprised to the upside — it shows that inflation is easing even as economic growth is accelerating.”

In that context, they noted that the market “continues to price in the next 25-basis-point cut in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate for July, followed by another in December, although the probability of three 25-basis-point cuts in 2026 is now increasing.”

The soft-landing scenario — a gradual slowdown in inflation — which had been sidelined last year by the trade war, is once again gaining traction, supported by decelerating inflation and a labor market that remains resilient.

The strong inflation data gives the Fed greater room to cut rates more aggressively. In fact, analysts added that “the implied probability in futures markets of a 75-basis-point cumulative rate cut by year-end, which had declined after Wednesday’s solid job report, jumped from 36% yesterday to 59% today.”

How Much Warren Buffett’s Fortune Fell After Leaving Berkshire Hathaway

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Magnate, Who Remains Chairman of the Board, Still Ranks Among the World’s Ten Richest Individuals

At the close of last year, Wall Street marked the end of an era when Warren Buffett announced his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, after building the company into a US$1.16 trillion conglomerate and cementing his role as one of the most influential figures in global financial markets.

As of November last year, Buffett’s portfolio remained heavily concentrated in Berkshire’s largest equity holdings, led by the technology giant Apple, which accounted for 22.69% of the portfolio, with an estimated value of US$60.656 billion. Another major exposure was American Express.

American Express represented 18.84% of the portfolio, valued at US$50.359 billion, while Bank of America made up 10.96%, or approximately US$29.307 billion.

By the end of the third quarter, following the sale of 41,787,236 shares of one company—one of the most significant portfolio adjustments of the period—Berkshire’s holdings reached a market value of roughly US$267.3 billion.

How Large Is Buffett’s Fortune After His Retirement?

Although Buffett stepped down as CEO, he remains chairman of the board of Berkshire Hathaway, the source of 99.5% of his personal wealth. According to updated figures from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the “Oracle of Omaha” was still the tenth richest person in the world as of January 26, despite his retirement from the CEO role.

As of February this year, Buffett’s net worth stood at approximately US$146 billion, reflecting a year-to-date decline of about US$5.62 billion.

The Yen is on Track for its Biggest Weekly Gain in 15 Months

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Japanese yen dominated currency markets this week, as the U.S. dollar weakened globally amid mixed U.S. employment data and growing anticipation ahead of the upcoming inflation report.

The yen is on track this Friday to post its largest weekly gain in more than a year, after the historic electoral victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi eased some investor concerns about public finances. Meanwhile, the euro is approaching its fourth consecutive daily decline.

Japan’s currency led activity in the foreign exchange market throughout the week, particularly as its rally disrupted initial expectations that a sharp selloff in the yen could accelerate if Takaichi secured a strong mandate in last Sunday’s election.

Instead, the yen recovered most of the losses it had suffered ahead of the vote. Volatility in equity markets this week also funneled capital into lower-yielding currencies perceived as safe havens, such as the yen and the Swiss franc.

[[USD/JPY-graph]]

On Friday, the dollar rose 0.5% against the Japanese currency to 153.46 yen, but the yen is still on track for a weekly gain of 2.7%, its strongest performance since November 2024.

Against the euro, the yen is up 2.3% for the week, its best result in a year. It has also gained around 2.7% versus the British pound.

Across the broader market, most currencies were trading within narrow ranges ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data later in the day, which could shape expectations for the future path of U.S. interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, with the first likely in July.

How major global currencies are performing at the end of the week

The dollar is heading for a weekly loss of 0.7% against a basket of currencies, pressured by doubts over the underlying strength of the U.S. economy following a series of labor market readings that, while appearing solid on the surface, revealed signs of weakness in hiring.

The Australian dollar — the best-performing currency of 2026 so far, after surging in recent weeks due to the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia — fell 0.3% to $0.7073, but remains on track for a weekly gain of around 0.9%.

The Swiss franc, another strong performer this week with a 0.8% gain, was trading flat at 0.7695 francs.

The euro edged down slightly to $1.1863, while the British pound slipped 0.1% to $1.3613.

Coinbase Posts Its First Quarterly Loss Since 2023

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Coinbase Posts First Quarterly Loss Since 2023 After Bitcoin Slump

Coinbase earnings highlight the complicated situation of Crypto.

The leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange reported losses in the final quarter of 2025, hit hard by the sharp downturn in Bitcoin. Transaction revenues plunged 37% year over year.

Coinbase posted a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its first quarterly loss since Q3 2023. Even the largest crypto exchange in the United States—and the second largest globally—was not immune to the late-year collapse in the crypto market.

Specifically, the platform recorded a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025, according to financial results released on Thursday. Net revenue fell 21.5% year over year to $1.78 billion, also below analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.85 billion.

Earnings per share came in at $0.66, well below the $0.92 expected by Wall Street analysts. The biggest удар came from transaction activity: revenue from transactions dropped nearly 37% year over year to $982.7 million.

Bitcoin’s decline dragged down Coinbase

This was Coinbase’s first quarterly loss since the third quarter of 2023, and the result was directly tied to the crypto market’s collapse during the period, led by Bitcoin.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell almost 30% from its peak of $126,080 in early October, ending the year below $88,500 on December 31.

The bearish trend has deepened in 2026: Bitcoin is down 25.6% year-to-date, trading around $65,760, after briefly falling below $60,000 earlier this month.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Coinbase and the battle over the Clarity Act

The results were released amid continued gridlock over the Clarity Act in the U.S. Congress. This is a key issue for the sector: Coinbase’s withdrawal of support for the bill in January became a defining moment, deepening divisions between parts of the crypto industry and the White House.

At the time, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong opposed provisions that would limit “rewards” on stablecoins, arguing that the company preferred no regulation over a framework that would harm the sector.

A meeting held at the White House earlier this month, aimed at bridging gaps between major U.S. banks and crypto firms, ended without progress—highlighting the depth of the industry’s internal divisions.

The issue of stablecoin “rewards” sits at the center of the debate. Banks argue these mechanisms amount to disguised interest payments, which are prohibited under current law and would be explicitly restricted under the Clarity Act.

Notably, subscriptions and services—particularly stablecoins—were the most resilient segment in Coinbase’s latest earnings report. Revenue from this segment rose 13% year over year to $727.4 million, with stablecoin revenue jumping to $364.1 million from $225.9 million the year before.