The European Union and the United States Near Deal on “Critical Minerals”

Posted on April 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Trade representatives from both sides held what was described as a “very positive” meeting as negotiations advance.

The European Union negotiates with the U.S over tariffs.

The European Union and Washington are close to reaching an agreement to coordinate the production and supply of critical minerals, according to a report by Bloomberg published Friday. The European Commission declined to comment on the report, while the office of the Office of the United States Trade Representative did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Reuters.

Maros Sefcovic, the EU’s trade commissioner, said in March that he had held a “very positive” meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of a ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization in Cameroon. During the talks, both sides agreed to continue advancing cooperation on critical minerals and also discussed tariffs.

What the EU–U.S. agreement would include

The potential agreement could include incentives such as minimum price guarantees designed to support suppliers outside China, according to the report, which cites a draft “action plan.” The EU and the U.S. would also cooperate on standards, investment, and joint projects, while increasing coordination in the event of supply disruptions from countries such as China.

According to Bloomberg, the agreement would cover critical minerals across the entire value chain, including exploration, extraction, processing, refining, recycling, and recovery.

The United States has been seeking greater access to critical mineral reserves—particularly rare earth supply chains, which are currently dominated by Chinese producers.

U.S. Inflation Jumps to 3.3% Year-on-Year in March Amid War Impact

Posted on April 10, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The figure came in slightly below economists’ expectations. Even so, it marked the largest increase since May 2023, during the early months of the war in Ukraine.

U.S. inflation rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, the first month in which volatility in global oil prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East began to significantly affect the U.S. economy. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.9%, the sharpest rise since June 2022, in the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Although the reading came in slightly below market forecasts, it represented a sharp acceleration from February, when annual inflation stood at 2.4% and the monthly increase was 0.3%.

Breaking down the data, the energy sector made the largest contribution to price growth, adding 0.69 percentage points to the monthly reading and 0.79 points to the annual rate, following a 10.9% jump in the energy component, driven largely by a 21.2% surge in fuel prices.

Core inflation—excluding the most volatile components of the consumer price index, such as food and energy—rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, just 0.1 percentage points above February’s figures.

“There is a lag between oil prices and core inflation,” said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). “The longer oil prices remain elevated, the greater the likelihood that the impact will eventually show up in the core CPI,” he added.

Beyond the impact of fuel

In its report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the housing index increased 0.3% in March.

The food index remained unchanged during the month, as the index for food away from home rose 0.2%, while the index for food at home declined 0.2%.

The report also showed that core goods prices increased 1.2% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than in February, while core services prices rose 3% annually, unchanged from the previous period.

Strait of Hormuz: Iran Demands Cryptocurrency Tolls

Posted on April 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Amid repeated openings and closures of the Strait of Hormuz and as attacks continue across the Middle East, Iranian authorities are reportedly controlling maritime transit through payments in bitcoin.

The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and is causing oil prices to climb while stocks dip.

In the middle of the truce announced by the White House—while missiles, drones, and bombs continue to fly across the region—Iran, perhaps looking beyond the short term, has demanded that vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz pay a toll in cryptocurrencies. This appears to have been the case with the first two cargo ships that crossed the strait following the announcement.

Private estimates suggested that at least 800 ships remained stranded after the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, amid uncertainty over what the fine print of the deal meant for maritime traffic. According to ship-tracking platform Kpler, the Daytona Beach, sailing under the Liberian flag and bound for the United Arab Emirates, crossed the strait early in the morning, while the NJ Earth, a Greek-owned vessel, followed about two hours later with an undisclosed destination.

These ships appear to be the first large commercial vessels to transit this crucial maritime corridor since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire, under which Iran said it would maintain control of the strait. It remains unclear whether the vessels paid any toll for the passage.

Kpler data show that around 175 million barrels of crude oil and refined products are currently loaded on 187 tankers in the Gulf, which could begin moving depending on developments in the strait.

New Tolls Based on Crypto

According to the British newspaper Financial Times, Iran has declared that it will require shipping companies to pay transit tolls in cryptocurrencies for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in an attempt to maintain control over this key maritime route during the two-week truce.

Hamid Hosseini, spokesman for the Union of Iranian Exporters of Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products, told the Financial Times that Iran intends to charge tolls to all ships crossing the passage and to evaluate each vessel individually.

“Iran needs to control what enters and leaves the strait to ensure that these two weeks are not used for weapons trafficking,” Hosseini said, adding that the process could take time for each vessel and that Iran “is in no rush.”

Decisions regarding the conditions for crossing the strait are made by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Hosseini’s remarks suggest that Iran may require all tankers to use the northern shipping lane close to its coastline, raising questions about whether Western vessels or ships linked to Gulf states would be willing to take that route.

Hosseini said each tanker must email Iranian authorities with details of its cargo, after which officials would communicate the toll to be paid in digital currencies. The fee is reportedly $1 per barrel of oil, while empty tankers may pass freely.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its evaluation, vessels have only seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring that the payment cannot be tracked or confiscated due to sanctions,” the Iranian spokesperson explained.

According to the Financial Times, Iran plans to require shipping companies to pay these transit tolls in Bitcoin for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Micah Zimmerman of BitcoinMagazine.com noted that such a move effectively links bitcoin to one of the world’s most critical energy corridors and to a major geopolitical crisis.

Cryptocurrencies as a sanctions workaround

The method chosen by Iran reflects a clear attempt to bypass traditional financial channels, which remain heavily restricted by sanctions, while still maintaining a mechanism to control maritime traffic.

At the same time, the policy places bitcoin at the center of a geopolitical crisis. Iran has spent years facing restrictions on dollar-based payment systems, limiting its ability to collect fees or process payments tied to maritime trade. By adopting bitcoin, authorities are seeking a channel that operates outside conventional banking networks and offers greater resistance to asset freezes or confiscation.

Russia Doubles Oil Revenues Amid Middle East War

Posted on April 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to Reuters estimates, the surge in crude prices is boosting fiscal revenues, though significant fiscal and production risks remain.

Russia’s revenues from its main oil tax are set to double to about $9 billion in April, amid a global oil and gas crisis triggered by the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran.

The estimate represents one of the first concrete indications of the extraordinary windfall the war in Iran could generate for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter. Industry traders say the conflict has already sparked the most severe energy crisis in recent history.

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in late February, pushing Brent crude futures well above $100 per barrel.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Most of Russia’s income from its vast oil and gas industry is tied to production. The export duty on crude oil was eliminated at the beginning of 2024 as part of the so-called tax maneuver, a sector reform that has been implemented gradually over several years.

According to Reuters calculations based on preliminary production and price data, Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil is expected to rise to roughly 700 billion rubles ($9 billion) in April, up from 327 billion rubles in March. Revenues also increased by about 10% year-on-year compared with April last year. For the full year 2026, Russia expects to collect 7.9 trillion rubles from this tax.

Strong demand for Russian energy

The average price of Russian crude used to calculate taxes climbed to $77 per barrel in March, its highest level since October 2023, according to data from the Economy Ministry. That represents a 73% increase from February’s $44.59 and exceeds the $59 per barrel price assumed in the federal budget for this year.

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that demand for Russian energy remains strong across several markets, as a severe global energy crisis shakes oil and gas markets.

However, the windfall has limits. Russian economists have repeatedly warned that 2026 could still prove to be a challenging year. Russia posted a fiscal deficit of 4.58 trillion rubles, equivalent to 1.9% of GDP, between January and March 2026, the Finance Ministry reported on Wednesday.

At the same time, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure—aimed at undermining Moscow’s finances—have also weighed on revenues and threaten potential cuts in oil production.

Ultimately, the scale of Russia’s extraordinary revenues will depend on how long the crisis in Iran lasts.

Gold and Silver Hit Three-Week Highs, but Caution Persists

Posted on April 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Precious metals surged after the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, although analysts warn the improvement could prove temporary if the agreement fails to hold.

Gold and Silver reached their highest levels in three weeks after Washington and Tehran announced a two-week ceasefire, a signal markets interpreted as partial relief from tensions in the Middle East.

In that context, gold was down 0.17% at $4,769 after touching an intraday high of $4,888 earlier in the session. Silver, meanwhile, fell 1.35% to $74.315, slightly below its daily peak of $77.80.

The move was also supported by financial factors. According to Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, the rally was fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar—which fell more than 1% during the session—and by a sharp drop in oil prices. Brent crude plunged more than 15% and touched its lowest level in nearly a month, also shaping market expectations.

However, the outlook remains uncertain. Analysts at ING Group said market sentiment has shown signs of stabilization but noted that gold is still down roughly 11% from its February peak, as the conflict with Iran has paradoxically reduced its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

A more cautious view came from Sucden Financial, which warned the truce appears fragile and conditional, meaning the rally could reflect the immediate impact of headlines rather than a structural shift. In that sense, the outlook for precious metals will depend both on the durability of the agreement and the direction of monetary policy in the United States.

An unusual reaction to the conflict

During the conflict with Iran, the behavior of gold and silver surprised many analysts. Rather than acting as safe havens, both metals experienced broad declines, contradicting the traditional view that geopolitical tensions tend to boost their prices.

Part of this dynamic was explained by their inverse correlation with oil, which surged during the conflict. In fact, by late February—before the escalation—silver had reached about $93 while gold had surpassed $5,200, levels that remain far above current prices.

The metals also showed strong sensitivity to political developments. A warning by Donald Trump about a possible attack on Iran triggered a drop of more than 8% in silver and around 4% in gold late last week.

Fragile truce and focus on the Fed

The ceasefire announcement was made by Trump through Truth Social, where he said the agreement with Iran would last two weeks, conditional on the “full, immediate and safe” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the United States had already achieved its military objectives and received a ten-point peace proposal from Iran.

From Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iranian forces would halt defensive operations if attacks stopped and said safe passage through the strait would be guaranteed during the agreed period.

Still, uncertainty remains. After the initial sharp drop, oil prices began to rebound, keeping inflation concerns alive and complicating the outlook for policy at the Federal Reserve.

Minutes from the Fed reflected a divided view: while some officials believe a prolonged conflict could weaken the labor market and justify rate cuts, others warn that inflation could remain elevated if crude prices rise again.

Oil Falls Below $100 as Wall Street Rebounds

Posted on April 9, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Israel has opened talks with Lebanon after Iran urged a halt to Israeli attacks on the country as a condition to continue negotiations with the United States.

The US military may be ending the fight in Iran soon, and investors are hopeful.

Major Wall Street indexes rose on Thursday following fresh progress toward a more durable ceasefire in the Middle East conflict. The developments pushed oil prices further below $100 per barrel and supported the two-week truce promoted by Washington.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at midday that he had instructed Israeli officials to begin peace talks with Lebanon, which would also include the disarmament of Hezbollah.

The statement came after Iran warned that no peace agreement would be possible unless Israel halted its bombing campaign in Lebanon, putting at risk the fragile two-week ceasefire agreed between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran.

[[SPX-graph]]

As a result, futures for Brent crude were little changed, rising 0.15% to $94.80 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 2.14% to $96.45.

Key moves on Wall Street

In this context, the S&P 500 rose 0.63%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.72%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved higher, gaining 0.74%.

Among individual stocks, the biggest gainers included Brown‑Forman (+14%), Constellation Brands (+7.5%), and Carrier Global (+5.8%). On the downside, the largest declines were seen in Autodesk (−9.6%), Axon Enterprise (−7.8%), and ServiceNow (−7.5%).

Beyond geopolitics, data released Thursday showed that PCE Inflation in the United States rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, in line with expectations, while economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter.

Global markets

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.34%. National indexes were mixed, with Germany’s DAX down 1.35% and France’s CAC 40 losing 0.22%. Outside the eurozone, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged down 0.05%.

In Asia, Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 0.54%, while the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.72%. South Korea’s KOSPI declined 1.6%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.53%.

Wall Street Jumps 3% on U.S.–Iran Two-Week Ceasefire Deal

Posted on April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Markets celebrated the truce between the United States and Iran: stocks rallied while oil prices plunged, although doubts remain about how long the agreement will last.

Wall Street Mixed as Investors Rotate into Cyclical Sectors — Wall Street rallied as Investors Rotated into Cyclical Sectors

Wall Street posted strong gains on Wednesday, April 8, driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran. The news also triggered a drop of more than 12% in oil prices.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.85% to 47,910.79 points; the S&P 500 advanced 2.52% to 6,783.48 points—its highest level since early March—and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.80% to 22,635.00 points.

[[SPX-graph]]

For now, diplomacy has managed to cool tensions in the Middle East. Market participants had been on edge ahead of a Tuesday 8:00 p.m. (ET) deadline set by Trump for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its energy infrastructure. A request from Pakistan, a key mediator, to extend the deadline and respect a two-week truce helped improve market sentiment.

Only hours before the deadline, Trump announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he had accepted Pakistan’s request, conditional on the immediate reopening of the strait. He also said Iran had submitted a 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would halt its defensive operations and facilitate safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz if maritime traffic were coordinated with its military.

Market reaction

Wall Street futures had already reacted positively after Tuesday’s close and extended gains on Wednesday, with major indexes surging from the opening bell.

Trump later provided more details about the truce: “The United States will work closely with Iran (…) there will be no uranium enrichment and progress will be made in eliminating nuclear material.”

He also said negotiations on reducing tariffs and sanctions would continue, adding that many elements of the agreement were already advancing.

At the same time, Israel continued attacks against Hezbollah, while Iran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire.

The Israeli government backed the agreement, although it did not include Lebanon, where strikes continued. According to the The Wall Street Journal, Israel was informed late and was not fully satisfied with the terms.

Relief that could prove temporary

Reports of ceasefire violations failed to halt market optimism.

Oil prices plunged:

Brent crude: −12.8% to $95.26
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): −15.2% to $95.7.

Notable Movers on Wall Street

The market saw strong sector rotation:

Travel-related stocks surged: Southwest Airlines (+6.6%), Norwegian Cruise Line (+7.6%), United Airlines (+7.8%), and Carnival Corporation (+11%).
Airline stocks rose roughly 7% on average, though Delta Air Lines (+3.7%) lagged after issuing weak earnings guidance.
The energy sector of the S&P 500 dropped sharply due to the collapse in oil prices.
LyondellBasell (−7.5%) and APA Corporation (−7.6%) were among the hardest hit.
Meta Platforms rose 6.5% following the launch of its new AI model.

S&P 500 Dividend Yield Hits 50-Year Low

Posted on April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The only other time the dividend yield of the S&P 500 fell to such low levels was during the tech bubble of the early 2000s.+

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

The dividend yield of the S&P 500 is currently at a historically low point, reflecting a structural shift in the U.S. equity market and posing challenges for investors seeking recurring income without sacrificing growth.

At present, the index’s dividend yield stands near a 50-year low, at around 1.24%. This marks a sharp contrast with previous decades, when dividends represented a much larger share of total returns.

According to Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, the only other time the yield dropped to a similarly low level was during the early-2000s tech bubble, when it reached 1.09%.

Technology stocks driving the shift

Parker noted that over the past 100 years, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of roughly 10%, with about 30% of that coming from dividends.

The main reason behind the current situation is not simply that companies are paying fewer dividends, but rather that stock prices—particularly in the technology sector—have risen much faster than dividend payouts.

“The percentage of companies paying dividends stands at about 56.5%, which is not significantly different from the past 25 years. It is therefore clear that the largest companies by market capitalization—many with low or no dividends—are driving the current situation,” Parker said.

Many major technology firms—including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla—pay very small dividends or none at all, as they prioritize reinvesting profits into growth. This dynamic pulls down the overall average dividend yield of the index.

At the same time, the market has changed the way companies return capital to shareholders. Instead of dividends, firms increasingly rely on share buybacks, which also contributes to lower income yields without necessarily reducing total returns.

For income-focused investors, this trend presents a major challenge. With yields close to 1%, significantly more capital is required to generate meaningful income. It also pushes investors to take on more risk or look beyond the index for alternatives, such as high-dividend stocks or bonds.

Trump Warns of 50% Tariffs on Countries Arming Iran

Posted on April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

After agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, the U.S. president is once again using tariffs as a tool to try to impose his terms in the Middle East conflict.

Trump may be ending the war in Iran soon, and stock futures are climbing on the news.

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, threatened to impose 50% tariffs on any country supplying weapons to Iran. The move comes within the framework of the ceasefire he announced Tuesday night, when he suspended U.S. attacks on the country for two weeks.

“Any country that supplies military weapons to Iran will be immediately subject to a 50% tariff on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!” Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Trump accepts a truce in exchange for reopening oil flows in Hormuz

“The United States will work closely with Iran, a country which, as we have observed, has undergone a very productive regime change. There will be no uranium enrichment, and the United States, in cooperation with Iran, will excavate and remove all deeply buried nuclear remnants (from B-2 bombers),” Trump said.

He added: “These remnants are, and have been, under strict satellite surveillance (Space Force). Nothing has been touched since the strike. We are, and will continue, negotiating with Iran on reducing tariffs and sanctions. Many of the 15 points have already been agreed.”

Following the postponement of the ultimatum, the Israeli military said Iran had launched missiles toward its territory. The armed forces stated that they had “identified missiles launched from Iran toward the territory of the State of Israel” and that defense systems were being activated to intercept the threat.

Morgan Stanley Sees S&P 500 Bottom, Recommends Two Key Sectors

Posted on April 8, 2026April 8, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

With valuations compressed, market sentiment still negative, and corporate earnings holding up, the bank sees an opportunity to reposition portfolios toward cyclical sectors and themes linked to artificial intelligence.

The S&P 500 may be starting to form a bottom amid a backdrop of lower valuations, cautious investor sentiment, and corporate results that continue to show resilience. That is the conclusion of a recent report by Morgan Stanley, which suggests investors take advantage of this environment to adjust portfolio positioning.

According to the bank, current conditions open a window to increase exposure to cyclical sectors and high-quality growth companies. Within the cyclical universe, the report highlights financial institutions in particular, noting that they combine more attractive valuations with earnings prospects that remain relatively resilient.

Why banks could present an opportunity

The report points out that bank stocks have been under pressure amid concerns about disruption from artificial intelligence and the rapid expansion of private credit. However, Morgan Stanley believes these risks are overstated, improving the sector’s relative appeal.

At the same time, the bank sees opportunities within the high-quality growth segment, particularly among large technology infrastructure providers—the so-called hyperscalers—and, more broadly, the group known as the Magnificent Seven.

[[SPX-graph]]

According to the analysis, these companies are currently trading at multiples close to those of the consumer staples sector—around 24 times earnings versus roughly 22 times for that defensive segment. However, their expected earnings growth is more than triple that of those companies, reinforcing their long-term potential.

Thematic strategies: where the market sees value

Beyond sector allocation, Morgan Stanley also focuses on thematic strategies that have outperformed the S&P 500 in both 2026 and 2025. In this context, the bank recommends a selective approach toward areas with strong return potential.

Among them, it highlights the defense sector and several healthcare-related verticals, including the convergence of artificial intelligence and medicine, demographic aging, and the so-called “diabesity” ecosystem.

The bank also maintains a positive view on companies that integrate artificial intelligence into their operations and possess clear competitive advantages, such as high barriers to entry or strong pricing power.

In line with this trend, the report emphasizes the attractiveness of infrastructure tied to artificial intelligence, including energy development and power grid expansion needed to support its growth. As an emerging theme, it also mentions the advance of humanoid robotics.

Overall, the strategy combines a short-term market reading—suggesting the market may be stabilizing—with a focus on structural sectors and trends that Morgan Stanley believes offer the most compelling opportunities in the current environment.