Brazil’s Unemployment Falls to 5.2%, Lowest Since 2012

Posted on December 30, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Brazil’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% in the September–November period, marking its lowest level in more than a decade.

Brazil is the largest market in the southern cone.

The decline was driven mainly by job creation in public administration and social services, according to data released on Tuesday.

Figures from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) show the rate fell by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous rolling quarter, which had already set a historical low. On a year-on-year basis, unemployment also declined from 6.1% in the same period of 2024.

The data reflect the creation of approximately 492,000 new jobs in sectors including public administration, defense and security, education, and social services.

Labor Market Resilience Despite External Pressures

This reading is the lowest in the IBGE’s unemployment series, which began in 2012, underscoring the resilience of Brazil’s labor market despite external challenges. During part of the period, Brazilian exports faced U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on several products, in effect from August 6 through mid-November.

In mid-November, U.S. President Donald Trump lifted surcharges on many agricultural products following a meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of commodities such as beef and coffee, although some sectors—notably machinery—continue to be affected by U.S. trade measures.

Despite the improvement in employment, informality remains high. About 37.7% of Brazilian workers are still employed in the informal sector, highlighting structural challenges in the labor market.

Optimism Builds Ahead of 2026

Public sentiment has also improved. According to a survey by Datafolha, 69% of Brazilians believe their personal situation will improve in 2026, up from 60% in a similar survey conducted in 2024. At the national level, 60% of respondents expect 2026 to be a better year for Brazil, compared with 47% previously.

Asked whether 2026 would be better, the same, or worse than 2025, 16% said it would be the same, 11% expected it to worsen, and 3% were undecided.

The year 2026 will be politically significant for Brazil, as the country heads into presidential elections, with incumbent President Lula da Silva seeking re-election for a fourth term.

Digital Yuan: China’s Plan to Boost Adoption

Posted on December 30, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Beginning January 1, China will roll out an official “action plan” to promote the use and circulation of its digital currency.

According to Lu Lei, Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which has been running pilot programs since 2014, users across the country will be able to access and operate with the digital yuan.

Although Chinese consumers already rely heavily on online and mobile payments, the digital yuan is expected to give the central bank greater access to data and control over payment flows, reducing reliance on large technology platforms. “The future digital yuan will be a modern form of digital payment and circulation issued within the financial system,” Lu said.

A key innovation is that holdings of China’s digital yuan—also known as the e-CNY—will begin to earn interest starting next year, according to state broadcaster CCTV. This would make it the world’s first central bank digital currency (CBDC) to pay interest, marking a shift toward the era of so-called “digital deposits,” rather than simply digital cash.

According to state media, paying interest on digital yuan balances is intended to increase user willingness to adopt the currency, expand its use cases, and further consolidate China’s leading position in the global exploration of central bank digital currencies.

What the Action Plan Includes

Lu said that a “next-generation” system for the digital yuan will be launched on January 1, incorporating a comprehensive framework that includes measurement standards, management systems, operational mechanisms, and a supporting ecosystem. Under this structure, banks will pay interest on customers’ digital yuan balances to encourage broader adoption.

The plan also proposes the establishment of an international digital yuan operations center in Shanghai, signaling China’s ambition to expand the currency’s role beyond domestic use.

At the same time, the PBOC has reaffirmed its strict stance on cryptocurrencies. Last month, the central bank pledged to intensify its crackdown on illegal activities involving stablecoins, while simultaneously accelerating efforts to promote the use of its own sovereign digital currency.

Wall Street Expects Amazon Shares to Surge Up to 50% in 2026

Posted on December 29, 2025December 29, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Of the 67 Wall Street analysts covering Amazon, roughly 96% rate the stock as either Strong Buy or Buy.

Amazon stock has climbed fast in recent days.

Amazon shares delivered a muted performance in 2025, rising just about 6% for the year—well below the S&P 500’s 18% gain—making it the weakest performer among the so-called Magnificent Seven. Despite this underperformance, Wall Street remains confident in the company’s upside potential heading into 2026.

Investor sentiment over the past year has been mixed, shaped by slower growth at Amazon Web Services (AWS) and lingering questions around the monetization of the company’s artificial intelligence initiatives. In addition, workforce reductions—including more than 14,000 corporate layoffs—have added to market caution.

Why Wall Street Remains Bullish

Even against this more subdued backdrop, analysts continue to favor Amazon for 2026. Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI argues that the stock could rally as much as 50% from current levels, citing several catalysts that could reignite growth.

Among them are a potential reacceleration at AWS, rising demand for Amazon’s Trainium AI chips, sustained strong growth in advertising revenue, and an expanded consumer ecosystem through new offerings such as Alexa+. Mahaney also highlights Amazon’s long-standing track record of high-quality execution, with compound annual earnings-per-share growth of roughly 25% and steadily expanding operating margins.

Looking ahead, he expects free cash flow to improve meaningfully over the next 24 months, giving the company greater financial flexibility to pursue strategic investments.

Consensus Targets and Diverging Views

The broader analyst consensus remains constructive. The average price target stands near $295, implying roughly 27% upside from current levels. Still, not all forecasts are equally aggressive. J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth takes a more measured stance, projecting around 30% upside, while noting that large strategic deals—such as a reported $38 billion cloud services agreement with OpenAI—could further support AWS revenues and long-term growth.

By contrast, data from predictive markets such as Polymarket suggest that many retail investors remain skeptical in the near term, expecting Amazon shares to trade largely sideways during the early months of 2026.

China’s Industrial Profits Drop 13.1% in November

Posted on December 29, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The data were released by Bloomberg. The Chinese government estimates industrial growth of more than 5%.

Trade war between the United States and China is heating up. — Trade war between the United States and Chine is heating up.

China’s industrial profits posted a second consecutive monthly decline in November, deepening a negative trend that reflects weakening domestic demand and the persistent effects of deflation. According to official figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), industrial earnings fell 13.1% year over year, following a 5.5% decline in October.

Despite these weak results, cumulative profits for the first eleven months of the year edged up just 0.1%. Authorities remain more optimistic about the outlook. China’s Ministry of Industry expects output from large industrial firms to grow 5.9% in 2025 compared with 2024, pointing to a significant rebound relative to current conditions.

Domestic Demand and Deflation Remain Key Drags

The NBS report highlights sluggish domestic demand and ongoing industrial deflation as the main pressures on corporate profitability. The backdrop remains challenging, marked by falling investment, subdued consumer spending, and persistent trade frictions with key partners. While China has maintained a tariff truce with the United States, external conditions continue to weigh on activity.

Sector performance remains uneven. Advanced industries such as aerospace and electronics recorded profit growth of around 5% over the first eleven months of the year, while utility companies managed to stay in positive territory. In contrast, the mining sector posted double-digit declines, reflecting volatility in commodity prices.

Outlook: Limited Stimulus, Growth Risks Persist

Looking ahead, economists expect Chinese authorities to pursue only modest monetary easing and restrained fiscal expansion in 2026. This cautious approach follows the tone set by senior policymakers at the most recent economic policy meeting, where stability was prioritized over aggressive stimulus.

China’s official growth target for 2025, set at around 5%, appears achievable. However, a continued deterioration in industrial profits could weigh on private investment and employment in the coming months.

Geopolitical Tensions Escalate Over Taiwan

Geopolitical tensions intensified on Friday after China imposed sanctions on 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 executives over an arms deal with Taiwan. Measures include freezing assets held in China and banning domestic firms from doing business with the sanctioned entities, according to China’s foreign ministry.

The move follows a U.S.–Taiwan arms agreement worth between $10 billion and $11 billion—the largest in their history—pending approval by the U.S. Congress. Beijing described the deal as a serious provocation, reiterating that Taiwan remains a core national interest and a red line in U.S.–China relations.

Under U.S. law, Washington is obligated to assist Taiwan in its self-defense, a provision that has become an increasingly contentious source of friction amid broader tensions over trade, technology, and human rights.

J.P. Morgan Predicts a Selective 2026 on Wall Street: Top Stock Picks Revealed

Posted on December 29, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The bank expects a “polarized” market in 2026 and favors stocks with structural growth, strong balance sheets, and the ability to sustain margins amid rising uncertainty.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is approaching year-end with optimism, but with a clear warning for investors: 2026 will not be a market for indiscriminate strategies. According to the bank, the coming year will be marked by increasing polarization between winners and losers, widening performance gaps across companies and making stock selection more critical than ever.

In this environment, J.P. Morgan recommends focusing on equities with solid fundamentals, exposure to long-term growth drivers, and the resilience to navigate a backdrop still shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory shifts, and cyclical pressures. Artificial intelligence, data centers, infrastructure, electrification, and operational efficiency stand out as the core themes guiding its 2026 strategy.

Sector-by-Sector Opportunities

Industrials

Within the industrial sector, the bank sees opportunities tied to infrastructure investment, logistics, and the energy transition. Its preferred names include:

Boeing
Canadian Pacific Kansas City
Caterpillar
CRH
Valmont
Vertiv

Consumer Discretionary

In consumer discretionary, the approach is more selective. J.P. Morgan prioritizes companies with strong brands, pricing power, and business models capable of protecting margins even in slower demand environments:

AutoZone
Carvana
Celsius Holdings
Dana
DraftKings
McCormick
Mohawk Industries
Ralph Lauren
Starbucks
United Airlines
Viking Holdings

Energy

Energy also plays a meaningful role in the recommended portfolio. J.P. Morgan maintains a constructive view on the sector, particularly for companies well positioned for the energy transition and infrastructure-driven demand:

Devon Energy
Entergy Corp
ExxonMobil
GE Vernova
Schlumberger
Williams

Financials

In financials, the bank favors banks, insurers, and financial services firms with diversified revenue streams and exposure to potential deregulation in the United States:

Allstate
CBRE Group
Charles Schwab
Citi
Globe Life
TPG RE Finance Trust
Valley National Bancorp

Looking ahead, J.P. Morgan expects leadership in equity markets to be more evenly distributed than in 2025 and anticipates a more demanding environment in which quality once again outweighs quantity. Against a backdrop shaped by U.S. economic policy, potential regulatory changes, and a global race for artificial intelligence leadership, the message is clear: fewer broad bets and greater conviction in companies built for long-term performance.

Year-End Markets Rally with Help from the Fed

Posted on December 29, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The key question today is whether the S&P 500 will have enough time to cross the 7,000-point threshold before year-end.

Nasdaq is keeping last week's momentum as tech stocks improve. — Nasdaq is keeping last week’s momentum as tech stocks improve.

The U.S. economy is roaring. Equity markets are celebrating, and bonds—after the latest inflation report—are offering little resistance. Deeper concerns can wait until 2026. For now, it is the season of the Santa rally. After two years of absence, the sleigh has returned to Wall Street right on time, delivering new record highs in equities and precious metals.

Against this backdrop, President Trump introduced a new rule for monetary policy: “Anyone who disagrees with me will never chair the Fed.” Markets, however, remain largely unfazed. Jerome Powell continues to lead the Federal Reserve independently, even as his term expires in May. That reckoning belongs to the longer term. The immediate focus remains market momentum.

[[SPX-graph]]

Strong Growth, Tame Inflation

Recent macroeconomic data has reinforced the rally. The U.S. economy expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter. Although released late in the year, the figure carried significant weight. Inflation, measured imperfectly due to the government shutdown, slowed in October and November—welcome news for both bonds and risk assets.

Importantly, easing price pressures were confirmed before strong growth data could reignite concerns about long-term interest rates. The sequence proved ideal for equities. Corporate earnings had already reflected this strength: S&P 500 earnings per share rose 13.6% year over year in the third quarter, far exceeding expectations, with forward projections pointing to continued double-digit growth.

The Fed’s Invisible Hand

Markets also owe much of the year-end strength to the Federal Reserve. Since mid-September, the Fed has delivered three rate cuts despite an economy operating at high speed. Powell has justified this stance by pointing to unexpected labor market weakness. While immigration restrictions have reduced labor supply, labor demand has declined even faster, pushing unemployment higher.

Beyond interest rates, the Fed halted quantitative tightening in December and resumed liquidity injections to prevent funding stress, adding at least $40 billion this month alone. These actions helped stabilize markets during a critical period.

The Santa rally caps an exceptional year. Volatility episodes earlier in the year briefly threatened momentum, but Fed support prevailed. Equities and metals now lead the advance, powered by strong seasonality and favorable liquidity conditions. In markets, inertia matters—and for now, it remains firmly on the bulls’ side.

Crypto Boom: Ecosystem Deals Hit a Record $9 Billion in 2025

Posted on December 26, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

A total of 267 transactions were completed, including acquisitions, underscoring the growing maturity of the crypto sector.

The cryptocurrency industry experienced a historic year for mergers and acquisitions in 2025, with deal activity reaching a record $8.6 billion. This level of activity—far exceeding that of 2024—reflects a much more favorable environment for the sector and growing confidence among investors and financial institutions in digital assets.

According to a report by the Financial Times, total deal value in the sector through late December surged well beyond the $2.17 billion recorded the previous year, marking growth of nearly 300%.

In total, 267 transactions were completed, including acquisitions, strategic investments, and mergers. This not only represents a nominal record, but also signals the increasing maturity of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

What’s behind the surge in crypto deals?

Much of the momentum stems from a clearer and more supportive regulatory environment, particularly in the United States.

The administration under President Donald Trump adopted a more permissive stance toward cryptocurrencies, scaling back legal actions and promoting policies that restored confidence among traditional markets and institutional investors—many of whom had previously stayed on the sidelines due to regulatory uncertainty.

Several blockbuster deals stood out in 2025:

Coinbase completed the largest acquisition of the year, purchasing derivatives platform Deribit for approximately $2.9 billion, the biggest merger ever recorded in the crypto sector.
Kraken, another major exchange, acquired futures broker NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion.
Ripple finalized the purchase of institutional broker Hidden Road for $1.25 billion, strengthening its foothold in traditional financial markets.

Precious Metals Boom: Gold and Silver Hit Record Highs

Posted on December 26, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Precious metals are posting extraordinary gains on Friday, with silver up 158% year to date. Uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy, tensions involving Venezuela, and a weaker dollar are fueling demand for safe-haven assets.

Silver climbed to $75 per ounce for the first time ever on Friday, in a session that also saw gold and platinum hit record highs, driven by speculative positioning, expectations of further U.S. rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,522.89 per ounce, after touching an intraday high of $4,530.60. February gold futures advanced 0.9% to $4,545.10. Spot silver jumped 4.4% to $75.02 per ounce, after reaching a record $75.14 earlier in the session.

Gold has staged a powerful rally this year, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979. The surge has been driven by monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainty, sustained central bank demand, rising ETF holdings, and the ongoing process of global de-dollarization.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Silver has significantly outperformed gold in terms of returns, gaining 158% this year, compared with a 72% increase for gold. Structural supply deficits, its inclusion on the U.S. list of critical minerals, and strong industrial demand have underpinned its performance.

With traders pricing in two U.S. rate cuts next year, non-interest-bearing assets such as gold remain well positioned in an environment of looser monetary policy.

Platinum and palladium also shine

Spot platinum surged 5.35% to $2,384.85 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $2,448.25, while palladium gained 6.26% to $1,833.07, following a three-year peak in the previous session. All precious metals were on track for weekly gains.

Platinum and palladium—both widely used in automotive catalytic converters—have benefited from tight supply conditions, tariff uncertainty, and a rotation of investment demand away from gold. Platinum is up 160% year to date, while palladium has gained more than 90%.

Copper also broke a historic threshold, climbing above $12,000 per metric ton. Like platinum, the metal has been supported by concerns over potential U.S. tariffs, which have so far been avoided.

Bitcoin Falls to $87,000 on Thin Year-End Liquidity

Posted on December 26, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The leading cryptocurrency is under pressure from exchange-traded fund outflows, though investors remain attentive to the prospect of looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin swung down fast after a quick climb to $90K.

The cryptocurrency market is trading lower on Friday. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.3% to $86,903, posting a 1.4% weekly decline, according to Binance.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is slipping 1.8% to $2,913. Altcoins are also under pressure, with BNB down 1.8%, Ripple (XRP) falling 2.3%, and Solana (SOL) losing 1.6%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

A Christmas without good news for Bitcoin

Christmas trading brought no relief for Bitcoin, which continues to struggle to break above the $90,000 threshold. Thin year-end liquidity and ongoing outflows from exchange-traded funds have kept investors cautious, focusing on technical levels and short-term flows rather than long-term fundamentals.

Recent data show investors pulling money from several major ETFs, pointing to profit-taking and a decline in institutional demand.

Still, Bitcoin is finding some support from sustained interest in digital assets as an alternative store of value. Expectations for a more bullish 2026 remain intact, driven by the possibility of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy next year, amid leadership changes at the Federal Reserve.

Traditional Markets

Major Wall Street indexes are trading slightly higher on Friday, extending their upward streak following Christmas Eve. Meanwhile, Asian equities hit a six-week high, while the sharp rally in precious metals showed no signs of easing.

Markets in Australia, Hong Kong, and most of Europe are closed on Friday, and global market liquidity is expected to remain thin.

China Forecasts 5.9% Industrial Growth in 2025

Posted on December 26, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Asian giant expects a modest increase in industrial output compared with last year. However, the slowdown seen in recent data has raised concerns among analysts.

China’s government, through its Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said it expects output from large industrial companies to grow 5.9% in 2025 compared with 2024. If confirmed, this would represent only a marginal acceleration from last year’s 5.8% growth.

According to information released on Friday by state broadcaster CCTV, the projected pace would remain below the nearly 6% growth recorded in the first eleven months of 2025, based on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

China projects industrial output growth

The latest data point to signs of slowing momentum. In November, industrial production—covering companies with annual revenues above 20 million yuan (about $2.85 million)—rose 4.8% year-on-year, marking the weakest monthly increase since August 2024.

This cooling in activity has renewed concerns among analysts, who are calling for a stronger role for the state to support domestic demand and cushion the impact of the prolonged downturn in the property sector. They also warn about the need to reduce China’s structural dependence on exports.

Against this backdrop, economic policymakers have acknowledged imbalances between supply and demand and indicated that new fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption and reviving investment will be rolled out next year.