SpaceX Weighs an IPO Valuing the Company at $1.5 Trillion by June 2026

Posted on January 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Elon Musk’s technology company is seeking private investors and aims to raise up to $50 billion.

SpaceX's value is massively increasing ahead of its public offering. — SpaceX’s value is massively increasing ahead of its public offering.

Elon Musk’s aerospace manufacturer SpaceX is weighing an initial public offering (IPO) as early as mid-June, with the goal of raising up to $50 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, according to the Financial Times.

Its chief financial officer, Bret Johnsen, has also been holding discussions with existing private investors since mid-December to explore a potential public listing by mid-2026. Along those lines, Reuters reported last week that SpaceX is lining up four Wall Street banks to serve as lead underwriters for its market debut.

The largest IPO in history

Following Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion IPO in 2019, SpaceX would surpass that benchmark by a wide margin, making it the largest public offering ever.

The news comes amid rapid growth in the space economy. In 2024, the sector reached a record $613 billion, driven by the expansion of commercial activities, which accounted for nearly 78% of the total. In 2025, private investment in space technology jumped 48% to $12.4 billion, including $3.8 billion in the fourth quarter alone.

Federal Reserve Meeting

Unlike on other occasions, this Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting will not hinge on the monetary policy decision itself, which is expected to be made by the central bank’s rate-setting committee, but rather on what Chair Jerome Powell says during the press conference that follows. Powell’s term expires in May, leaving him with three meetings remaining before stepping down.

While this would normally be a routine situation, it has gained increasing prominence since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, particularly because it remains unclear who the president will nominate to replace Powell. The Republican leader repeatedly criticized Powell for months over his reluctance to cut interest rates more aggressively and even launched a judicial investigation into him over alleged misuse of funds.

Gold Extends Its Historic Rally, Surpassing $5,200

Posted on January 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Like the yellow metal, silver, platinum, and palladium are also posting strong gains.

Gold has once again reached record highs amid a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar to near four-year lows, driven by persistent geopolitical concerns and ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming monetary policy decision.

In that context, gold is up 3.5% at $5,260 per ounce after hitting an all-time high of $5,266.37. The metal has risen more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

Along the same lines, spot silver jumped 7.75% to $114.20 per ounce, after reaching a record high of $117.69 on Monday. The white metal is up nearly 60% year-to-date. Spot platinum advanced 1.7% to $2,685.16 per ounce after touching a record $2,918.80 on Monday, while palladium gained 0.7% to $1,946.75.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Dollar weakness, the key driver behind gold’s surge

The rally in gold is largely explained by its strong inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar. Recent comments by Donald Trump in response to an informal question about the dollar suggest a broad consensus within the White House in favor of a weaker greenback going forward.

U.S. consumer confidence plunged in January to its lowest level in more than 11 and a half years, while the dollar has fallen to its weakest level in four years.

At the same time, uncertainty is building in the U.S. economy amid tensions at the Fed, which is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January, and speculation surrounding Trump’s potential appointment of a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell.

Long-Term U.S. Treasuries are Back on Investors’ Radar

Posted on January 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Wall Street strategy is emerging just as most market participants had expected longer-dated bonds to remain under pressure in 2026.

Long-term bond yields are attractive again.

In the vast U.S. Treasury market—worth more than $30 trillion—a group of contrarian Wall Street investors is spotting a buying opportunity following the recent sell-off that pushed long-term yields to levels not seen in months.

Those yields, which reflect borrowing costs across different maturities, climbed to nearly 5% on 30-year Treasuries, a threshold that some asset managers now view as highly attractive for initiating long positions.

This contrarian approach—positioning against the prevailing market consensus—comes at a time when most investors had expected longer-maturity bonds to remain under pressure in 2026, particularly relative to shorter-dated securities.

Why Wall Street is warming to long-dated bonds

Until recently, the dominant view was that the yield curve would flatten or steepen in a way that favored shorter-duration assets, based on expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates on hold without additional cuts in the near term.

However, the recent move in yields has created what some investors see as an attractive entry point at the long end of the curve. For many, the 5% yield on the 30-year Treasury has become a clear “line in the sand.” Until that level is reached decisively, some managers prefer to position more heavily in the 10-year segment.

A contrarian bet

This countercyclical strategy is based on the view that markets may have over-discounted the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Fed, especially given that inflation remains relatively elevated.

If the central bank stays firm and refrains from easing policy for several months, longer-term yields could stabilize and eventually decline—generating capital gains for investors who buy at current levels.

In addition, some managers believe there may be an implicit government backstop if long-term yields rise too sharply, reinforcing the idea that current yield levels could represent a compelling entry point for long-duration bonds.

Bank of America Flags a Potential Gold Bubble

Posted on January 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The rally in the precious metal is accelerating amid a weak dollar and heightened global uncertainty, but BofA warns that market overheating is increasing the likelihood of extreme price swings.

Gold continues to notch fresh record highs and this week climbed above $5,000 an ounce—a threshold the market had not expected to reach until later in the year. The scale and speed of the move have raised red flags. Bank of America (BofA) warned that the rally is increasing bubble risks and raising the probability of sharp moves in both directions.

According to the bank’s report, its Bubble Risk Indicator (BRI) for gold is approaching 1, a level historically associated with overheating dynamics in asset prices. BofA said the rise in the indicator reflects a combination of elevated global uncertainty, dollar weakness, and a surge in implied volatility—factors that have propelled the metal to new highs.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

While the bank acknowledges that this environment continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, it cautions that it also increases the risk of abrupt corrections, even as further extensions of the rally cannot be ruled out. In particular, BofA noted that implied volatility in gold has jumped as the market has become more “exuberant,” making traditional bullish positioning strategies increasingly expensive.

Gold faces rising volatility risks

BofA added that gold’s performance has been one of the main catalysts behind the recent rise in stress across commodity markets, with implied volatility posting its largest weekly increase since March 2020. This move occurred alongside a pickup in stress in currency markets and a sharp decline in the dollar—a combination that has historically favored the precious metal.

Against this backdrop, the bank concludes that while gold’s appeal as a safe haven remains intact amid geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty, the breach of the $5,000 level clearly raises bubble risks and points to a more volatile and less linear price path in the months ahead.

The ‘Mother of All Deals’: Why the EU–India Alliance Matters

Posted on January 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Both sides will deepen cooperation across a wide range of strategic sectors, including automobiles, wine, and even military equipment.

India will be a strategic partner for the European Union.

The European Union and India on Tuesday formalized what they described as the “mother of all trade deals,” an agreement that—after two decades of negotiations—will create a free trade zone encompassing nearly two billion people. The pact aims to shield both sides from Chinese competition and from the fallout of the tariff-driven trade war proposed by the United States.

“This agreement will bring many opportunities,” said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed the sentiment in a post on X, writing: “Europe and India made history today.” She added that the EU expects to benefit from “the highest level of market access ever granted by India to a trading partner,” noting that the agreement covers economies that together account for roughly 25% of global GDP and one-third of international trade.

The announcement follows the EU’s signing on January 17 of a long-awaited agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc after more than 25 years of negotiations. However, the European Parliament has referred that deal—reached with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—to the bloc’s courts for a legal review, delaying ratification by up to 18 months.

Deal details: cars, chocolate, and military equipment

Cuts to Indian tariffs on European imports are expected to save the EU up to €4 billion ($4.75 billion) per year.

Under the agreement, India will reduce tariffs on European vehicles from 110% to 10%, on wine from 150% to 20%, and will eliminate duties entirely on products such as pasta and chocolate, according to European officials. For its part, India expects the deal to boost exports of textiles, jewelry, gemstones, and leather goods, Modi said.

The EU and India are also set to sign agreements covering the movement of temporary workers, exchanges of students, researchers, and certain professionals, as well as a security and defense pact. In this area, New Delhi has been diversifying its military procurement away from its long-standing reliance on Russia, while Europe is pursuing a similar strategy to reduce dependence on the United States.

According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections, India could overtake Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy—behind the United States, China, and Germany—and could reach the global top three before 2030, according to the Indian government.

Germany’s Investment in China Hits a Four-Year High

Posted on January 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

This is part of a broader trend among so-called “middle powers” such as the United Kingdom and Canada, which are seeking to reduce their dependence on the United States. At the same time, the European Union has recently signed free trade agreements with Mercosur and India.

German companies’ investment in China reached a four-year high in 2025, highlighting how the erratic trade policy of U.S. President Donald Trump—who has just announced new tariffs on South Korea—is pushing allied countries, including those in the European Union (EU), to deepen commercial ties outside the U.S. sphere.

According to data compiled by Reuters and the German Economic Institute (IW), German investment in China rose to more than $8 billion between January and November of last year, an increase of 55.5% compared with the roughly $4.4 billion recorded in both 2023 and 2024.

At the same time, German companies nearly halved their investments in the United States during the first year of Trump’s second term. Meanwhile, China reclaimed its position as Germany’s largest trading partner last year, after having been overtaken by the U.S. in 2024.

The figures illustrate how the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies following its return to the White House have undermined business confidence among firms in Europe’s largest economy, prompting them to look to China as an alternative market.

This shift comes as the EU signed a free trade agreement with Mercosur just weeks ago and finalized another deal with India only hours ago.

Middle powers seek alternatives

Germany is not alone in strengthening trade ties beyond the U.S. sphere of influence. British officials are traveling to China this week in hopes of securing additional trade agreements, ranging from automobiles to pharmaceuticals.

Similarly, Canada is looking to expand its trade relationships with China and India. In this context, Prime Minister Mark Carney presented an alternative to Trump’s worldview at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week.

Carney argued that while the rules-based global order may have come to an end, Canada and other “middle powers” can act collectively to avoid becoming casualties of U.S. trade policy. “When the rules no longer protect you, you have to protect yourself,” he said.

The remark came shortly before Carney continued negotiations with China on a preliminary trade agreement that would include preferential access for Chinese electric vehicles to the Canadian market. Shortly thereafter, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian products.

Gold Tops $5,100 for the First Time, Up More Than 15% in January

Posted on January 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Major metals closed lower on the day after hitting unprecedented all-time highs, driven by a surge in safe-haven capital flows.

Gold climbed above $5,100 per ounce but ended the session slightly lower on profit-taking. The metal has already surged more than 15% in January, supported by strong safe-haven demand. The rally comes amid a weaker U.S. dollar following a turbulent week in which geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and Iran rattled investors, while markets remained on edge after sharp swings in the Japanese yen.

The yen strengthened more than 1% to 154.22 per dollar, after Friday’s sharp moves sparked speculation about a possible market intervention. According to Reuters, the New York Federal Reserve conducted exchange-rate checks on Friday, raising the likelihood of a joint U.S.-Japan intervention to stem the currency’s decline.

Spot gold reached an intraday peak of $5,145.39 before settling at $5,050.61 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery closed at $5,008.35.

Gold surged 64% in 2025, marking its strongest annual gain since 1979, and shattered multiple records amid safe-haven demand, looser U.S. monetary policy, heavy central bank purchases, and record inflows into exchange-traded funds. Prices are now up 15.2% year to date.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

U.S. President Donald Trump offered markets temporary relief last week by scaling back tariff threats and downplaying the prospect of aggressive measures against Greenland. However, new sanctions targeting Iran have renewed market anxiety.

Rising U.S. pressure on Iran has pushed oil prices higher and sent gold—long considered a safe-haven asset—to fresh record highs. Precious metals, including silver, have posted strong gains so far this year, further supported by the weaker dollar.

Why gold is rising

Commodity markets are experiencing an unprecedented shake-up as investors shift aggressively toward safe-haven assets, seeking protection against economic volatility and ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions.

Trump-related uncertainty across multiple fronts remains a key driver of rising prices and investor positioning, fueled by fears of missing out on further gains.

The U.S. dollar index fell close to its lowest level since 2022, signaling sustained weakness and making dollar-priced metals more attractive to overseas buyers.

Analysts say gold still has room to rise this year, potentially toward $6,000 per ounce, amid escalating global tensions and continued strong demand from central banks and consumers.

Spot silver hit fresh highs at $100.06 per ounce before ending the session down 1.1% on profit-taking at $103.89. The metal is up 47.2% year to date.

Spot platinum fell 7.1% to $2,577.55, after touching a record $2,923.40, while palladium dropped 3.6% to $1,992.50, after reaching a peak of $2,195.19.

Wall Street Ends Higher Despite Volatility in Japan

Posted on January 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The yen remains under pressure, partly due to concerns over Japan’s public debt, which exceeds twice its GDP.

Markets are also awaiting a potential announcement from the Donald Trump administration regarding the next Federal Reserve chair.

Major Wall Street indexes closed higher on Monday, January 26, as investors brace for a pivotal week featuring the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and a wave of corporate earnings, all amid rising geopolitical tensions. Adding to market uncertainty, speculation resurfaced over a possible U.S. intervention in the Japanese yen, a move not seen in the past 15 years.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to 49,412.40, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 6,950.42, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.4% to 23,601.36.

[[SPX-graph]]

Yen under pressure

The yen climbed on Monday to its highest level in more than two months, amid growing speculation about a coordinated intervention by U.S. authorities in Japan’s foreign-exchange market, following comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Japan’s top currency diplomat.

Despite the rebound, the yen remains under pressure, in part due to concerns over Japan’s public debt, which exceeds twice the size of its economy. In addition, the historic rise in market interest rates has fueled fears about Japan’s ability to service its debt. However, Takaichi said she plans to cut taxes as part of her campaign ahead of the snap election scheduled for February 8.

The United States last took part in a coordinated intervention in the yen market in March 2011, when it sold yen following the Fukushima earthquake.

Fed leadership in focus ahead of key meeting

The main event of the week is the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. Markets expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged, while policymakers are widely anticipated to signal future rate cuts, with roughly 50 basis points of easing expected over the year.

As last year, the Fed is expected to enter a prolonged pause following a series of cuts late in 2024, with markets now anticipating that the policy rate will remain unchanged until June. The Fed’s tone has turned relatively more hawkish since the December meeting, as economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate has stabilized.

Attention is also focused on the dispute between U.S. President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which has raised concerns about the central bank’s independence from political interference. Earlier this month, Powell said the Department of Justice had opened a criminal investigation into him—a move he described as politically motivated.

Powell is set to step down as Fed chair in May, and Trump is expected to announce his replacement soon. Rick Rieder of BlackRock has emerged as the leading contender on the Polymarket betting platform, with a 48% implied probability.

Record Gold: Central Banks With the Biggest Reserve Increases in 2025

Posted on January 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Between January and November last year, financial authorities in several countries recorded historic inflows of the precious metal.

Gold continues its strong rally and on Monday surpassed $5,000 per ounce, driven by safe-haven capital flows as the dollar weakens following a turbulent week marked by geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and Iran. As a result, the metal has surged more than 84% over the past 12 months—its biggest annual gain in 46 years—and is up 18% so far in January.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Against this backdrop, central banks in several emerging economies have emerged as key players, as they seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve asset. According to the latest data from the World Gold Council, monetary authorities purchased a combined 297 tonnes of gold between January and November 2025.

Goldman Sachs analysts have also turned more bullish, raising their end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce and estimating that central bank purchases could average 60 tonnes per month.

Central banks leading gold purchases

Amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the following central banks led global gold buying through November 2025:

Poland: Over the first eleven months of 2025, Poland accumulated 95 tonnes, raising its gold holdings to 543 tonnes, equivalent to 28% of total reserves. The country aims to increase its gold holdings to 700 tonnes, representing 30% of international reserves, and has already approved a plan to acquire an additional 150 tonnes.
Kazakhstan: Added 49 tonnes over the same period. The central bank holds 324 tonnes of gold, accounting for nearly 69% of total reserves.
Brazil: Increased its reserves by 43 tonnes through November 2025. Total gold holdings stand at 172 tonnes, or 6% of total reserves.
Turkey: Recorded 27 tonnes of purchases through October 2025, bringing total holdings to 641 tonnes, representing 48% of international reserves.
China: Added 26 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025. China’s central bank holds roughly 2,300 tonnes of gold, equivalent to 7.7% of its international reserves.

Gold at Record Levels; Major Consultancy Sees $10,000 This Year

Posted on January 26, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Yardeni analyzed the factors behind gold’s recent surge and forecast a bullish outlook for the metal.

Gold Holds Firm Above $5,000 as Inflation Data and Earnings Take Center Stage

Gold continues to rally and on Monday surpassed $5,000 per ounce, driven by safe-haven capital flows as the dollar weakens following a turbulent week marked by geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and Iran. As a result, the metal has climbed more than 84% over the past 12 months—its largest annual increase in 46 years—and is up 18% so far this month.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Against this backdrop, Yardeni notes that the current rally is being fueled by a “geopolitical risk trade,” with global tensions contributing to a rapid rise in prices across “all precious metals, many base metals, and rare earth minerals.”

The market research firm explained: “All of this is happening because escalating geopolitical tensions are driving an arms race. Defense companies need metals to ramp up production, and their share prices are also surging.”

Where gold is headed, according to Yardeni

U.S. intervention in Venezuela, negotiations over U.S. military bases in Greenland, and an increased military presence near Iran have all acted as catalysts for gold. These developments were compounded by President Donald Trump’s decision to raise U.S. military spending to $1.5 trillion by 2027, up from $906 billion this year, citing “troubled and dangerous times.”

Yardeni also highlighted that prices of tin, silver, platinum, palladium, and gold have outperformed the broader S&P GSCI commodities index so far this year, while base-metals ETFs continue to closely track rising industrial-metal prices.

Within this context, the firm maintained its long-term bullish outlook for gold:
“We continue to target $6,000 by the end of this year and $10,000 by the end of 2029.”