U.S. Inflation Slows to 2.4%, While Core CPI Hits Its Lowest Level Since 2021

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Food, energy, and housing were key drivers behind the decline in the overall inflation rate. Among analysts, expectations are rising for three 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026.

The Consumer Price Index may shows declining inflation.

U.S. inflation came in at 2.4% year-over-year in January, slightly below market expectations and down from 2.7% in December. However, the most striking figure was the slowdown in core inflation, which fell to 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2021.

The data comes from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast by the market and also lower than December’s monthly increase.

Breaking the data down by components, food prices slowed to a 0.2% monthly increase from 0.7% in December, while energy prices fell 1.5%, mainly due to lower fuel costs. Among other key categories, transportation declined 0.3% month-over-month, while medical care rose 0.3%.

Analysts noted that the housing component—“one of the heaviest-weighted categories and one of the most resistant to disinflation in recent months”—rose just 0.2% monthly, down from 0.4% in December, driven by easing pressure in rental prices.

One of the most notable figures in the report was the Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) measure, which stood at 3.25% year-over-year, its lowest level since October 2021, signaling that housing affordability continues to improve—albeit at a very gradual pace.

Fed: Markets Renew Hopes for More Than Two Rate Cuts

Analysts argued that the inflation report “is clearly positive because, after Wednesday’s strong January employment report — and amid a run of economic data that has consistently surprised to the upside — it shows that inflation is easing even as economic growth is accelerating.”

In that context, they noted that the market “continues to price in the next 25-basis-point cut in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate for July, followed by another in December, although the probability of three 25-basis-point cuts in 2026 is now increasing.”

The soft-landing scenario — a gradual slowdown in inflation — which had been sidelined last year by the trade war, is once again gaining traction, supported by decelerating inflation and a labor market that remains resilient.

The strong inflation data gives the Fed greater room to cut rates more aggressively. In fact, analysts added that “the implied probability in futures markets of a 75-basis-point cumulative rate cut by year-end, which had declined after Wednesday’s solid job report, jumped from 36% yesterday to 59% today.”

How Much Warren Buffett’s Fortune Fell After Leaving Berkshire Hathaway

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Magnate, Who Remains Chairman of the Board, Still Ranks Among the World’s Ten Richest Individuals

At the close of last year, Wall Street marked the end of an era when Warren Buffett announced his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, after building the company into a US$1.16 trillion conglomerate and cementing his role as one of the most influential figures in global financial markets.

As of November last year, Buffett’s portfolio remained heavily concentrated in Berkshire’s largest equity holdings, led by the technology giant Apple, which accounted for 22.69% of the portfolio, with an estimated value of US$60.656 billion. Another major exposure was American Express.

American Express represented 18.84% of the portfolio, valued at US$50.359 billion, while Bank of America made up 10.96%, or approximately US$29.307 billion.

By the end of the third quarter, following the sale of 41,787,236 shares of one company—one of the most significant portfolio adjustments of the period—Berkshire’s holdings reached a market value of roughly US$267.3 billion.

How Large Is Buffett’s Fortune After His Retirement?

Although Buffett stepped down as CEO, he remains chairman of the board of Berkshire Hathaway, the source of 99.5% of his personal wealth. According to updated figures from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the “Oracle of Omaha” was still the tenth richest person in the world as of January 26, despite his retirement from the CEO role.

As of February this year, Buffett’s net worth stood at approximately US$146 billion, reflecting a year-to-date decline of about US$5.62 billion.

The Yen is on Track for its Biggest Weekly Gain in 15 Months

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Japanese yen dominated currency markets this week, as the U.S. dollar weakened globally amid mixed U.S. employment data and growing anticipation ahead of the upcoming inflation report.

The yen is on track this Friday to post its largest weekly gain in more than a year, after the historic electoral victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi eased some investor concerns about public finances. Meanwhile, the euro is approaching its fourth consecutive daily decline.

Japan’s currency led activity in the foreign exchange market throughout the week, particularly as its rally disrupted initial expectations that a sharp selloff in the yen could accelerate if Takaichi secured a strong mandate in last Sunday’s election.

Instead, the yen recovered most of the losses it had suffered ahead of the vote. Volatility in equity markets this week also funneled capital into lower-yielding currencies perceived as safe havens, such as the yen and the Swiss franc.

[[USD/JPY-graph]]

On Friday, the dollar rose 0.5% against the Japanese currency to 153.46 yen, but the yen is still on track for a weekly gain of 2.7%, its strongest performance since November 2024.

Against the euro, the yen is up 2.3% for the week, its best result in a year. It has also gained around 2.7% versus the British pound.

Across the broader market, most currencies were trading within narrow ranges ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data later in the day, which could shape expectations for the future path of U.S. interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, with the first likely in July.

How major global currencies are performing at the end of the week

The dollar is heading for a weekly loss of 0.7% against a basket of currencies, pressured by doubts over the underlying strength of the U.S. economy following a series of labor market readings that, while appearing solid on the surface, revealed signs of weakness in hiring.

The Australian dollar — the best-performing currency of 2026 so far, after surging in recent weeks due to the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia — fell 0.3% to $0.7073, but remains on track for a weekly gain of around 0.9%.

The Swiss franc, another strong performer this week with a 0.8% gain, was trading flat at 0.7695 francs.

The euro edged down slightly to $1.1863, while the British pound slipped 0.1% to $1.3613.

Coinbase Posts Its First Quarterly Loss Since 2023

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Coinbase Posts First Quarterly Loss Since 2023 After Bitcoin Slump

Coinbase earnings highlight the complicated situation of Crypto.

The leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange reported losses in the final quarter of 2025, hit hard by the sharp downturn in Bitcoin. Transaction revenues plunged 37% year over year.

Coinbase posted a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its first quarterly loss since Q3 2023. Even the largest crypto exchange in the United States—and the second largest globally—was not immune to the late-year collapse in the crypto market.

Specifically, the platform recorded a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025, according to financial results released on Thursday. Net revenue fell 21.5% year over year to $1.78 billion, also below analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.85 billion.

Earnings per share came in at $0.66, well below the $0.92 expected by Wall Street analysts. The biggest удар came from transaction activity: revenue from transactions dropped nearly 37% year over year to $982.7 million.

Bitcoin’s decline dragged down Coinbase

This was Coinbase’s first quarterly loss since the third quarter of 2023, and the result was directly tied to the crypto market’s collapse during the period, led by Bitcoin.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell almost 30% from its peak of $126,080 in early October, ending the year below $88,500 on December 31.

The bearish trend has deepened in 2026: Bitcoin is down 25.6% year-to-date, trading around $65,760, after briefly falling below $60,000 earlier this month.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Coinbase and the battle over the Clarity Act

The results were released amid continued gridlock over the Clarity Act in the U.S. Congress. This is a key issue for the sector: Coinbase’s withdrawal of support for the bill in January became a defining moment, deepening divisions between parts of the crypto industry and the White House.

At the time, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong opposed provisions that would limit “rewards” on stablecoins, arguing that the company preferred no regulation over a framework that would harm the sector.

A meeting held at the White House earlier this month, aimed at bridging gaps between major U.S. banks and crypto firms, ended without progress—highlighting the depth of the industry’s internal divisions.

The issue of stablecoin “rewards” sits at the center of the debate. Banks argue these mechanisms amount to disguised interest payments, which are prohibited under current law and would be explicitly restricted under the Clarity Act.

Notably, subscriptions and services—particularly stablecoins—were the most resilient segment in Coinbase’s latest earnings report. Revenue from this segment rose 13% year over year to $727.4 million, with stablecoin revenue jumping to $364.1 million from $225.9 million the year before.

Wall Street Reverses Course and Slides, Led by Nasdaq

Posted on February 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. retail inflation will be released tomorrow, the other key report alongside yesterday’s employment data — a crucial figure for shaping the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions.

Nasdaq is down this week as tech stocks perform poorly.

Major Wall Street indexes deepened their losses on Thursday, as investors continued to digest a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report that cooled expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. At the same time, markets are positioning ahead of the upcoming retail inflation data, reacting to a political setback for Donald Trump in Congress, and assessing a new round of corporate earnings reports.

In this context, the S&P 500 — which tracks the largest companies on the New York Stock Exchange — fell 1% to 6,875.33 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5% to 22,729.40. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.7% to 49,772.23 points.

[[SPX-graph]]

Wall Street Focused on the U.S. Agenda

On Thursday, Donald Trump’s tariff policies suffered their most significant political setback to date after the U.S. House of Representatives, controlled by Republicans, approved legislation aimed at ending the president’s tariffs on Canadian imports.

This move increases political pressure to shift the course of Trump’s signature economic policy just months ahead of the midterm elections. Among other effects, it forces Republicans in swing districts affected by tariffs to decide whether to oppose the president by voting against his agenda.

In addition, U.S. retail inflation data will be released tomorrow — the other major report alongside yesterday’s employment figures — a key input for defining the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.

Markets in Asia and Europe

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx index fell 0.3%, moving further away from its historical high. At the local level, performance was mixed: Germany’s DAX traded flat, while France’s CAC 40 moved against the trend, rising 0.3%. Outside the eurozone, the UK’s FTSE dropped 0.7%.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.85%, while Shanghai’s stock exchange edged up 0.05%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.13%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.14%.

Bitcoin Pulls Back to $66,000 as Markets Stay Focused on the Fed’s Next Decision

Posted on February 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market is posting mild, broad-based declines. Bitcoin (BTC) is up 0.9% at $66,044, marking a pullback after having reached the $70,000 level during Tuesday’s session.

Bitcoin holders are selling in a panic as the coin falls below $67K.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is down 1.5% at $1,904. Altcoins are following the same trend: Solana (SOL) is down 2.3%, while Ripple (XRP) is slipping 0.3%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Employment data boosts expectations of greater Fed flexibility

Following Bitcoin’s sharp downturn — its value fell nearly 40% in just eight months — new U.S. employment data were released, showing stability in the labor market. Payroll growth in the United States accelerated in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, reinforcing the picture of economic resilience.

Markets scaled back their bets on interest rate cuts, although they still expect a first 25-basis-point reduction in June, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Attention is now shifting to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Friday.

In this context, positive inflation data could support a more moderate stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on interest rates, at least until June, following three consecutive rate cuts. While Bitcoin typically benefits from lower interest rates — which tend to boost risk assets — its current fragility is largely driven by reduced liquidity, institutional weakness, and fading speculative interest.

At the same time, a forecast by Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, added to investor चिंता, after he projected that Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 in the coming months. If that scenario materializes, Ethereum could also decline to around $1,400.

Binance rules out a Bitcoin catastrophe

“To put recent market movements into perspective, it is worth reflecting on Bitcoin’s remarkable growth over the past six years. On February 6, 2020, Bitcoin was trading at around $9,600. On February 6, 2026, it was trading near $65,000. This represents an almost sevenfold increase in value. By comparison, the S&P 500 grew by roughly two times over the same six-year period, highlighting Bitcoin’s unique potential for exceptional returns despite its volatility,” said Guilherme Nazar, Binance’s Regional Vice President for the Americas.

In that sense, he stressed that market downturns are “a natural and expected part of the crypto cycle.” Nazar also highlighted growing and sustained institutional participation, robust liquidity supported by stablecoins, and a macroeconomic environment in which liquidity conditions have the potential to improve over time.

U.S. Jobless Claims Decline Falls Short of Market Expectations

Posted on February 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. unemployment benefit claims fell less than the market had expected last week. Specialists warn that the modest decline was likely linked to the continued disruptions caused by severe winter storms.

Initial state unemployment benefit claims decreased by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000 for the week ending February 7, the U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast 222,000 claims.

The decline reversed only a small portion of the previous week’s increase, which had been attributed to snowstorms and freezing temperatures across much of the country, as well as to normalization after seasonal volatility at the end of last year and the beginning of 2026.

Despite the drop in unemployment, economists point to weak hiring levels

Although job growth accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in December, economists continued to characterize the labor market as one in a state of “low hiring and low firing.” Nearly all of the jobs created in January came from the healthcare and social assistance sectors.

Economists argue that trade and immigration policies have been constraining the labor market, but they remain optimistic that job growth will strengthen later this year, in part due to tax cuts.

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of assistance — a key indicator of hiring conditions — rose by 21,000 to 1.862 million on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending January 31, according to the claims report. So-called continuing claims have also been affected by seasonal volatility.

Even so, fewer people experienced prolonged periods of unemployment in January. The average duration of unemployment remained close to the levels recorded four years ago.

Argentina Could Regain Emerging Market Status, According to J.P. Morgan

Posted on February 12, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to the investment bank, a potential change in classification could inject significant capital flows that would benefit the local market.

J.P. Morgan believes Argentina has a realistic chance of regaining its Emerging Market status, although it is currently classified as “Standalone” under the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) framework. The bank’s report highlights the structural reforms implemented by President Javier Milei’s administration as key factors that could support a reclassification.

“Structural reforms are paving the way for Argentina’s return to global equity indices. The process of moving back to Emerging Market status has accelerated following a series of market-friendly reforms introduced by the Milei government since December 2023,” said the bank’s research team.

The analysis points to the removal of capital controls, the unification of the exchange rate, and the modernization of financial market infrastructure as major drivers behind growing expectations of a reclassification. It also notes that liberal economic reforms have facilitated capital inflows and outflows, improving perceptions of market accessibility for foreign investors.

Timeline and Potential Capital Inflows

Despite these positive signals, J.P. Morgan cautioned that the continuity of these policies beyond the 2027 presidential elections will be critical to consolidating the process. The report also emphasized remaining challenges in market infrastructure and institutional stability, noting that MSCI requires durable, long-term changes before modifying a country’s classification.

Historically, the consultation process for a market reclassification typically takes around two years. As such, if MSCI were to open a formal consultation for Argentina in 2026, a change in status could materialize between 2027 and 2028.

The bank added: “Even if the earliest reclassification could occur between 2027 and 2028, Argentina’s volatile history within global indices means investors should closely monitor both market conditions and the political landscape for signs of sustained progress.”

If the upgrade were to materialize, Argentina could receive net passive inflows estimated at approximately US$2.3 billion, providing a significant boost to the local equity market.

Bitcoin Pulls Back to $68,000 After Key U.S. Jobs Data Is Released

Posted on February 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

As investors grow increasingly concerned about the risk of a new “crypto winter,” a series of U.S. economic reports could help drive a rebound in the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin is in danger of an extreme drop.

The crypto market is posting broad-based declines. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.7% at $67,924, a modest pullback after briefly touching $70,000 on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is correcting by 1.5% to $1,973, and major altcoins are following the same trend: Solana (SOL) is down 2.5%, while Ripple (XRP) slips 0.4%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Crypto Markets Focus on U.S. Jobs Data and the Fed’s Next Move

Following Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off — with prices plunging nearly 40% in just eight months — new U.S. employment data showed continued labor market resilience. Payroll growth accelerated in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, reinforcing the picture of economic stability.

Markets have scaled back expectations for aggressive rate cuts, although they still anticipate a first 25-basis-point cut in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Attention now turns to the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Friday, which could further shape expectations for monetary policy.

In this context, favorable data could support a more cautious and gradual approach by the Federal Reserve (Fed) toward interest rate cuts, at least until June, following three consecutive reductions. While Bitcoin typically benefits from lower interest rates — which boost risk appetite — its current fragility appears to stem mainly from tight liquidity conditions, weakening institutional participation, and fading speculative interest.

Mexican Peso Posts Marginal Decline Against the Dollar After U.S. Jobs Data

Posted on February 11, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso ended the session virtually unchanged, as traders digested stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data.

The Mexican peso edged marginally lower against the dollar in midweek trading. The local currency closed the session practically flat, as market participants absorbed U.S. labor market figures that came in well above expectations.

The exchange rate ended the day at 17.1856 pesos per dollar. Compared with yesterday’s close of 17.1804, according to official Banco de México (Banxico) data, this represented a marginal loss of 0.03% for the peso—less than one cent.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.2690 and a low of 17.1307 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) from the Intercontinental Exchange, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was flat at 96.86 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Intraday volatility

At the open, the exchange rate reached a low of 17.1307. Analysts linked this initial move to domestic data, as industrial activity showed an unexpected increase in December, providing short-term support for the peso.

However, this trend reversed after reports emerged that U.S. President Donald Trump had privately said he was considering whether the United States should withdraw from the USMCA (T-MEC) trade agreement. In addition, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released this morning came in much stronger than expected. The initial reaction in the exchange rate was a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which was reflected in the upper end of the day’s trading range.

U.S. rate expectations

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 jobs last month, far above the 70,000 expected by analysts. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, reinforcing signals of economic strength.

The solid labor data follow figures showing that U.S. retail sales were flat in December. In this context, the market now expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate adjustments in June, according to FedWatch.

Weak retail sales may be interpreted as temporary noise, while wage pressures continue to sustain the Fed’s cautious stance. A strong labor market reinforces the idea that lower interest rates may take longer to arrive.

Resilience of the Mexican peso

At the start of the year, the peso has shown notable resilience, appreciating to levels as strong as 17.10 per dollar and holding within a relatively narrow range, despite expectations that the dollar could find some support from a more measured Fed policy amid persistent risks.

A scenario of stability within a 17.10–17.25 range appears most likely, provided the market fully digests the strength of U.S. employment data and Friday’s inflation report does not deliver upside surprises.