Bitcoin Fails to Hold $77,000 Ahead of Fed and ECB Meetings

Posted on April 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Markets are awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on the future path of interest rates, against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bitcoin is at a crossroads where it could easily go one way or the other sharply.

Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 mark on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key central bank decisions this week. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns have weighed on appetite for risk assets, placing cryptocurrencies under pressure.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down 0.8%, trading around $76,100, though it still posts a modest weekly gain of 0.5%. Meanwhile, Ethereum slipped 0.1% to around $2,200 per token and remains down 0.8% over the past seven days.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

The broader altcoin market is showing similar weakness, with Solana and XRP falling 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The few exceptions include Figure Heloc, which gained 0.5%, while Dogecoin rose 1.2%.

Crypto Markets Focused on Central Banks

This week’s agenda for crypto investors is dominated by meetings from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank.

The tone was set earlier by the Bank of Japan, which decided Tuesday to keep interest rates unchanged, although the vote revealed the highest level of dissent within the institution since January 2016.

Attention now turns to the Fed, which will announce its decision on Wednesday. While markets do not expect a change in interest rates, investors will closely watch the press conference from Jerome Powell, likely his final appearance as head of the central bank.

The following day, focus will shift to Europe’s central banks, as the region remains one of the areas most affected by the surge in global oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East.

Inflation Expectations Jump Across Europe, Raising Alarm

Posted on April 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

A European Central Bank survey showed a sharp increase in consumers’ inflation expectations for the year ahead, alongside growing pessimism about the economy.

The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a hawkish stance.

The data adds pressure on policymakers as Europe continues to grapple with the energy shock triggered by the war in Ukraine.

Consumers across the eurozone sharply raised their inflation expectations in March, according to a key survey released by the European Central Bank, reinforcing pressure on the central bank ahead of its next monetary policy meeting.

The survey showed that inflation expectations for the next 12 months climbed to 4.0%, up from 2.5% in February. The sharp increase reflects the persistent impact of higher energy costs linked to the war in Ukraine.

Medium-term expectations also moved higher. Consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.0% over the next three years, compared with 2.5% projected the previous month. Both figures remain well above the ECB’s 2% inflation target.

The only relatively moderate signal came from longer-term expectations. Inflation forecasts for the next five years edged up only slightly, from 2.3% to 2.4%, potentially offering some reassurance to policymakers.

ECB Watches for Second-Round Effects

Inflationary pressures in the eurozone intensified after the spike in energy prices caused by the conflict in Ukraine. Against that backdrop, the ECB is closely monitoring whether the initial shock begins feeding into wages, consumer behavior, and corporate pricing decisions—so-called second-round effects.

This scenario is particularly concerning for policymakers because it could make inflation more persistent and force the central bank to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.

Markets widely expect the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s meeting. However, analysts believe the institution will maintain a hawkish tone and leave the door open to future rate hikes if broader inflationary pressures continue to spread.

Growing Economic Pessimism

The survey also revealed worsening growth expectations among European households. Consumers now forecast a 2.1% contraction in the economy over the next 12 months, compared with the 0.9% decline expected in February.

The shift highlights rising concern over the impact of higher energy costs, declining purchasing power, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Income expectations remained broadly stable compared with the previous month. However, spending growth expectations rose from 4.6% to 5.1%, suggesting households anticipate continued increases in living costs in the months ahead.

A Key Signal for Markets

The ECB’s consumer survey is closely watched by investors because it offers insight into whether inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. For central banks, preventing that outcome is critical: when households and businesses begin expecting persistently higher inflation, they tend to adjust wages, contracts, and prices accordingly, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

Against this backdrop, the ECB faces a delicate balancing act between containing inflation and avoiding a deeper economic slowdown that is already beginning to emerge across the region.

Nvidia Hits New Record High, Surpasses $5.3 Trillion Market Value

Posted on April 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The tech giant reached a new all-time high on Wall Street, driven by the ongoing artificial intelligence boom and a broader global rally in semiconductor stocks.

NVIDIA Corporation made history once again on Wall Street after reaching the highest market capitalization ever recorded by a publicly traded company. The chipmaker ended the latest session with a valuation approaching $5.3 trillion after its shares hit a new record high of $216.61, gaining 4% on the day. However, the stock moved lower on Tuesday amid concerns over a decline in OpenAI user growth, which weighed on the broader semiconductor sector.

With that performance, Nvidia surpassed its previous record of $212 per share reached months earlier, widening its lead over the world’s other most valuable companies.

Explosive Growth Over Five Years

Nvidia’s stock market rise in recent years has been extraordinary. Since 2021, its share price has increased roughly fourteenfold, while over the last five years the stock has surged nearly 1,300%.

The company has become the clearest symbol of the artificial intelligence boom, dominating the market for high-performance chips used in data centers, generative AI models, and advanced computing infrastructure.

Wall Street sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish on the company led by Jensen Huang.

Over the past three months, analysts issued:

40 buy ratings
1 hold rating
1 sell rating

The average price target stands at $274.38 per share, implying additional upside potential of roughly 26% from recent closing levels.

Nvidia Extends Its Lead Over Tech Giants

Following the latest rally, Nvidia solidified its position as the world’s most valuable company by a wide margin.

The global market capitalization ranking currently stands as follows:

NVIDIA Corporation — $5.3 trillion
Alphabet Inc. — $4.2 trillion
Apple Inc. — $3.9 trillion
Microsoft Corporation — $3.15 trillion
Amazon.com, Inc. — $2.8 trillion

Nine of the world’s ten most valuable companies now belong to the technology sector.

Nvidia’s advance has coincided with a broader rally across semiconductor stocks, fueled by expectations of massive new investments in AI infrastructure and data centers worldwide.

According to estimates from Bank of America, Nvidia could generate more than $400 billion in free cash flow between 2026 and 2027.

The latest rally also comes amid another wave of investments in artificial intelligence startups. Recent developments include new commitments from Alphabet and Amazon to Anthropic, as well as reports that SpaceX could acquire Cursor in a deal valued at around $60 billion.

With leadership in hardware, expansion into software, and a dominant position in the AI ecosystem, Nvidia has firmly established itself as the biggest winner of the new global technology cycle—and Wall Street’s central reference point in the current market environment.

U.S. Congress Pushes Bill to Prevent Bailouts Like Argentina’s

Posted on April 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The report criticized the use of the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) by Donald Trump in support of Javier Milei’s government, arguing it was driven by “ideological reasons” and aimed at “improperly influencing” Argentina’s elections.

It warns that, going forward, such actions should require congressional approval to avoid discretionary use.

Late Friday, the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS), a nonpartisan body within Congress, issued a restricted-circulation report titled “Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund.” In it, analysts Marc Labonte and Rebecca Nelson outline why the 2025 bailout of Argentina—carried out under President Donald Trump—should be regulated by law to prevent its use for political purposes or electoral interference abroad. At the core of the criticism is the alleged misuse of U.S. taxpayer funds.

The Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund has historically allowed for rapid deployment with minimal restrictions, enabling interventions without prior congressional approval. However, the Argentina case—the first of its kind since 2002—sparked significant controversy. According to the report, lawmakers are now considering whether to impose stricter oversight and require legislative authorization for future operations.

A Rare and Controversial Intervention

According to the CRS report, the ESF was created in 1934 primarily to support the value of the U.S. dollar. While it has been used in various contexts—including domestic interventions during the 2020 pandemic—its use in Argentina marked one of the largest foreign operations in its history.

“The largest ESF credit operation with a foreign government, adjusted for inflation, was with Mexico during the 1995 peso crisis. The second largest was a $20 billion agreement with Argentina in 2025,” the analysts noted. The deal involved the U.S. Treasury committing to purchase Argentine pesos in exchange for U.S. dollars.

Argentina drew $2.5 billion from the swap in October 2025 and repaid it by December of the same year. However, as of the February 2026 ESF report, the agreement remains in place.

Some members of Congress opposed the deal, arguing it could represent an attempt to influence Argentina’s democratic process. The report highlights these concerns as a key driver behind the push for new legislative safeguards.

Concerns Over Fund Capacity

The report also raises concerns about the limited size of the ESF and the implications of large-scale interventions. As of February 2026, the fund held approximately $23.5 billion in U.S. Treasury securities and $4.3 billion in foreign currencies and assets.

Given its finite size, a single large operation—such as the Argentina agreement—can tie up a substantial portion of its liquid resources. Moreover, the ESF remains relatively small compared to the scale of global foreign exchange markets, potentially limiting its effectiveness in fulfilling its original mandate of stabilizing the dollar.

The findings add momentum to ongoing discussions in Congress over whether to formalize stricter rules governing the use of the ESF, particularly in foreign interventions with potential political implications.

Crypto Market Starts Week Lower as Bitcoin Fails to Hold $77,000

Posted on April 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Major cryptocurrencies are trading lower over the past 24 hours, pressured by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and the cancellation of negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Bitcoin may be bullish now, but there is still a lot of fear among investors.

Adding to the cautious tone are upcoming Big Tech earnings and key central bank meetings this week.

The crypto market is starting the week on a soft note. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.7% over the past 24 hours, trading around $76,700 and failing to sustain its earlier push toward the $80,000 level seen overnight. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is following the trend, slipping nearly 3% to trade below the $2,300 mark.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Most altcoins are showing similar price action. XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) are all moving lower in line with broader market weakness. The exceptions are Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Tron, which are posting modest gains of 1.6% and 0.3%, respectively.

Geopolitics Remains the Key Driver

As in recent weeks, market behavior remains closely tied to developments in the Middle East. Overnight, Bitcoin briefly approached $80,000 following a report from Axios suggesting that Iran had presented a new proposal to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, postponing negotiations over its nuclear program.

However, the momentum faded after President Donald Trump canceled the planned dispatch of U.S. envoys to Islamabad for talks with Tehran, citing “significant internal conflict and confusion” within Iran’s leadership.

A Week Packed with Catalysts

Analysts broadly agree that the coming days could prove decisive for markets. The Bank of Japan is set to announce its monetary policy decision Monday night, followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and then the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

This week also brings a wave of Big Tech earnings, with Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft all scheduled to report. Markets will be watching closely, given the outsized influence these companies have on global risk sentiment.

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecast on “Unprecedented” War Impact

Posted on April 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The report outlines a more strained scenario than initially expected, with rising risks for both the global economy and the balance between energy supply and demand.

The logo for Goldman Sachs is seen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., November 17, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/Files

The war in the Middle East continues to reshape global energy markets, adding a new chapter with Goldman Sachs revising its outlook. The investment bank warned that the scale of the conflict is already having an “unprecedented” impact on global oil supply, prompting it to raise its price forecasts for the coming months.

A Higher Floor for Oil Prices

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Brent crude is expected to reach $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, while WTI is projected to hover around $83. This marks a significant upward revision from previous forecasts of roughly $80 and $75, respectively.

The adjustment reflects expectations that the normalization of exports from the Gulf—a critical artery for global supply—will take longer than previously anticipated. The bank now estimates that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will stabilize only by late June, compared to earlier projections of mid-May.

Additionally, production in the region is expected to recover more slowly, prolonging market tightness.

Upside Risks: Prices Could Reach $120

Beyond the base case, the report outlines more extreme scenarios. In a downside scenario for supply, Brent prices could slightly exceed $100 if energy trade disruptions persist through late July.

In a more severe case, Goldman Sachs sees prices approaching $120 per barrel. This scenario assumes a sustained reduction in oil transport capacity from the Gulf, with an estimated loss of 2.5 million barrels per day.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Conversely, a more favorable scenario—featuring a rapid normalization of trade, no structural damage to infrastructure, and a stronger response from the United States and OPEC—could push prices below $80.

Low Inventories and “Non-Linear” Price Moves

A key warning in the report centers on global inventory levels. Goldman Sachs expects visible oil stocks to fall to their lowest level since 2018, increasing the likelihood of sharp and unpredictable price spikes.

The bank notes that in periods of extreme scarcity, market behavior tends to become non-linear, potentially triggering more abrupt price surges than usual—especially if supply disruptions persist.

In this context, global inventories are estimated to be declining at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April, driven by production losses in the Persian Gulf totaling as much as 14.5 million barrels per day.

Qualcomm Technologies Jumps 11% on OpenAI Deal

Posted on April 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Reports have emerged of a potential collaboration between OpenAI and Qualcomm Technologies to develop artificial intelligence-focused processors for smartphones.

Qualcomm Technologies shares surged 11% on Wall Street following news of a possible strategic agreement with OpenAI, fueling investor enthusiasm around the future of AI in mobile devices.

Specifically, OpenAI is reportedly working with Qualcomm, as well as Taiwan-based MediaTek, on the development of next-generation smartphone chips designed with artificial intelligence at their core.

Qualcomm Pushes Deeper into AI

The initiative aims to create a new class of “AI-first” smartphones—devices built from the ground up to integrate advanced AI capabilities directly on-device.

According to industry analysts, these chips could reach mass production by 2028, marking a significant shift in the evolution of mobile hardware.

The potential partnership also signals a broader strategic move by OpenAI to expand beyond software and enter the consumer hardware space. The company has already been exploring new device categories, with ambitions to develop alternatives that could complement—or even challenge—traditional smartphones.

For Qualcomm, the deal represents a key opportunity to position itself at the center of the next technological wave. The company has been actively seeking to strengthen its AI segment, particularly amid recent headwinds such as Apple’s reduced reliance on its chips.

A Supportive Backdrop

Such a collaboration could unlock new revenue streams and further solidify Qualcomm’s role within the AI ecosystem.

The broader environment also remains favorable, as the semiconductor sector continues to gain momentum driven by the AI boom, lifting growth expectations across major technology firms.

That said, the project has not yet been officially confirmed by the companies involved, leaving some degree of uncertainty. Even so, the market’s positive reaction underscores strong investor conviction in the future of AI-powered personal devices—and the pivotal role companies like Qualcomm may play in that transformation.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Hit Record Highs on U.S.–Iran Peace Hopes

Posted on April 24, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Positive earnings from several tech companies and a key development related to the Federal Reserve helped lift sentiment in Wall Street.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hitting record highs, supported by growing optimism over potential peace talks between the United States and Iran. A strong quarterly report from Intel, which boosted the broader tech sector, also contributed to the upbeat mood.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16% to 49,229.48 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.79% to 7,164.73; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.63% to 24,836.60.

[[SPX-graph]]

U.S.–Iran tensions show signs of easing

Earlier this week, Donald Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire between the United States and Iran, while maintaining a U.S. naval blockade.

Uncertainty continued to surround the fragile truce. Tehran responded to the blockade and demonstrated its control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks and the seizure of vessels near the critical shipping route. The U.S. also seized Iranian-flagged ships, and Trump stated he had ordered the Navy to fire on Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines in the strait. He also told reporters he did not want to “rush” into a deal with Iran.

Still, officials struck a more optimistic tone on Friday after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced a diplomatic tour including Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow. Iranian state media and the Associated Press had previously reported on the trip, though without confirming meetings with U.S. negotiators.

Optimism around potential talks was further supported by a CNN report indicating that Trump could send U.S. envoys for the Middle East to meet with Araghchi.

Oil prices declined on Friday, nearing session lows following the report. Brent crude futures slipped 0.3% to $104.74 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $93.73 per barrel.

Probe into Jerome Powell closed

Jeanine Pirro, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, announced Friday that she had ordered the closure of an investigation into renovation costs at the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters.

“This morning, the Inspector General of the Fed was asked to examine construction cost overruns totaling billions of dollars borne by taxpayers,” Pirro wrote on X.

“The Inspector General has the authority to hold the Fed accountable to American taxpayers. I expect a comprehensive report shortly and trust the outcome will help resolve, once and for all, the concerns that led this office to issue subpoenas,” she added.

“Accordingly, I have directed my office to close our investigation while the Inspector General conducts this review,” Pirro said. The Justice Department’s probe into the Federal Reserve had been criticized by the central bank in January. Its chair, Jerome Powell, in a rare move, publicly stated that the investigation was retaliation for not setting interest rates in line with Trump’s preferences.

Markets look to extend rally

Despite the back-and-forth headlines surrounding the U.S.–Iran conflict, investors largely focused on the first-quarter earnings season, which has so far been solid for U.S. companies, and on standout stocks of the day.

Shares of Intel surged 23.3% after the company reported quarterly results that beat consensus estimates, driven by strong growth in its data center and AI business.

Meanwhile, Texas Instruments fell 1.8% despite topping expectations, with analysts at Wolfe Research noting it remains “among our favorite analog ideas.”

Google Plans To Invest $40 Billion In Anthropic

Posted on April 24, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

This strategy will allow Google to position itself at the center of an innovation ecosystem that could define the future of the tech industry.

Google invests in the future of AI via Anthropic.

Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is planning to invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic, one of the most promising startups in the artificial intelligence space, as it doubles down on a sector that has become central to global competition among tech giants.

The deal includes an initial cash investment of around $10 billion, while the remaining $30 billion will be tied to the company meeting specific performance milestones.

[[GOOGL/USD-graph]]

Anthropic has been experiencing explosive growth, with its annualized revenue run rate exceeding $30 billion, up from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025—highlighting the surging demand for generative AI solutions.

The company, founded by former members of OpenAI, is also investing heavily in infrastructure, including agreements with chip suppliers and cloud service providers, as well as the development of large-scale data centers in the United States.

Google goes all-in on artificial intelligence

Google’s move does not come in isolation. Other tech giants, such as Amazon, are also committing billions to the same startup, underscoring intensifying competition to lead the development of advanced AI models.

This race is fueling an unprecedented wave of investment in technological infrastructure, from data centers to specialized chips.

Strategically, the investment aims to secure priority access to cutting-edge computing capacity and next-generation AI models—critical to strengthening existing products such as search, cloud services, and enterprise tools.

At the same time, it positions Google at the heart of an innovation ecosystem that could shape the future of the technology industry.

Following the announcement, shares of Alphabet rose 1% on Wall Street, nearing their early-year record high.

China To “Shield” Its Tech Companies From U.S. Investment

Posted on April 24, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Beijing has ordered companies such as ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and StepFun to reject U.S. investment without official approval, in a move that escalates bilateral tensions and aims to safeguard technologies tied to national security.

China is advancing one of its most forceful moves yet in the trade and tech standoff with Washington: the government will instruct leading firms—including top artificial intelligence (AI) startups—to turn down American capital unless it has prior state authorization.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other regulators have already issued directives to several private tech companies to decline U.S.-sourced funding in investment rounds unless explicitly approved by authorities, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter.

Among the firms said to have received these orders are Moonshot AI and StepFun, two of the country’s most promising AI startups. The restriction also extends to ByteDance, the parent of TikTok, with regulators reportedly blocking secondary share sales to U.S. investors without official clearance.

The move follows scrutiny sparked by Meta’s acquisition of Manus, a Chinese AI startup, in a deal valued at over $2 billion in 2025. The transaction triggered investigations into foreign investment in Chinese firms and technology exports, amid concerns it could enable the transfer of cutting-edge capabilities abroad.

National security and a critical link to Silicon Valley

China’s escalation mirrors steps taken by Washington months earlier, when U.S. authorities restricted outbound investment into Chinese companies operating in AI, semiconductors, and quantum computing on national security grounds.

The stated objective of the government led by Xi Jinping is similar: to prevent U.S. capital from gaining exposure to sensitive technologies tied to national security. However, the financial relationship between the two powers runs deep, suggesting growing friction ahead for companies on both sides.

For years, venture capital firms such as Sequoia Capital and Benchmark funneled capital into China’s tech ecosystem, while companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla built deep operational ties with the country. U.S. pension funds and endowments also supported investment vehicles focused on China, helping fuel the rise of internet platforms, electric vehicles, and AI.