Mexican Peso Gains Against the Dollar as Risk Aversion Eases

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso strengthened modestly against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, supported by a lack of new developments in the Iran conflict, as markets positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

The exchange rate closed at 17.6645 pesos per dollar, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). Compared to the previous LSEG reference of 17.6736 (in the absence of an official fixing due to a holiday), the currency posted a marginal gain of 0.05%, less than one cent.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.7394 at the high and 17.6116 at the low. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.25% to 99.56.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Lower risk aversion supports EM currencies

The absence of further geopolitical escalation allowed investors to rotate into higher-beta assets, putting mild pressure on the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

Market participants are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement due Wednesday. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, attention will center on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and any references to geopolitical risks.

If the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, the peso could test the 17.73 resistance level seen earlier in the session. However, if de-escalation in the Middle East persists, the currency may attempt to consolidate within the 17.60–17.65 range.

Australia Hikes Rates Amid War Impact, Adding Pressure on Central Banks

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Australia’s central bank warned that “the conflict in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in fuel prices,” setting the tone for a pivotal week in global monetary policy as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England prepare to announce their decisions.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off the week on Tuesday by raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%. The move reversed two of the three rate cuts delivered last year and pushed borrowing costs to their highest level in ten months, reflecting the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict.

The central bank justified the decision as necessary to contain inflationary pressures, which remain above its 2%–3% target range, in the context of a labor market that policymakers still view as tight.

However, the decision revealed a deeply divided board, passing by a narrow 5–4 vote — the closest split since the RBA began publishing individual voting outcomes.

In its statement, the board emphasized that “the conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in fuel prices” and warned that, if sustained, this trend “will contribute to inflation.”

It also noted that short-term inflation expectations are already rising and that “risks have tilted further to the upside.”

A pivotal week for central banks

The RBA’s decision marks the starting point of a critical week for global central banks, as escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices test policymakers worldwide.

The Federal Reserve began its policy meeting on Tuesday, with its decision due on Wednesday. While markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged this month, attention will focus on updated inflation projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to announce their decisions on Thursday. In both cases, policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, despite mounting inflation risks tied to energy prices.

Wall Street Loses Upward Momentum as Iran War Escalates

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. equities moved higher on Tuesday, March 17, but lost momentum from earlier session highs as oil prices remained elevated following the joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Fighting in Iran has kept gas prices elevated and shipments limited.

At the same time, NATO declined to support President Donald Trump’s stance on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10% to 46,993.87, the S&P 500 gained 0.25% to 6,716.19, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.47% to 22,479.

[[SPX-graph]]

Volatility remains contained, but risks are building

Major indexes had posted strong gains on Monday, driven by a rebound in technology stocks and a decline in oil prices. While equities continued to rise at Tuesday’s open, they gradually pared gains as crude prices resumed their upward trend.

“The rise in both oil and equities earlier in the session may seem contradictory, but following reports that Israel killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani, there appears to be some short-term optimism,” said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management.

“However, this remains a very fragile market. Any negative developments related to oil trade or the duration of the conflict could quickly trigger a pullback and a spike in the VIX,” he added.

Iran loses key senior figures

Israel reported that Larijani was killed in an airstrike on Monday, according to The Wall Street Journal. Other reports suggested that Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Basij paramilitary force, may also have died, though there has been no official confirmation from Iran.

[[USOIL-graph]]

As fighting continues, the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows — remains largely restricted. Iran stated that the passage is open to all vessels except those linked to the United States and its allies.

Trump criticizes NATO over Hormuz stance

Trump criticized NATO members for refusing to back his request to help reopen the strait. “We no longer need or want NATO’s assistance; we never did,” he wrote on social media.

While the United Kingdom and France expressed willingness to discuss potential responses, other allies — including Germany and Japan — rejected the request. Trump had previously suggested the U.S. could act unilaterally, although he noted that “many countries” were willing to cooperate.

Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the start of the strikes in late February. The prospect of a prolonged conflict in Iran is increasing the risk of a global energy crisis, with direct implications for inflation.

Trump seeks to delay meeting with Xi

Separately, Trump requested to postpone a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, just days after warning he would do so if China did not intervene to help reopen the strait.

Over the weekend, Trump urged Beijing to deploy its navy to secure the shipping route. However, China — the largest buyer of Iranian oil — has little incentive to align with Washington.

In fact, Tehran has allowed Chinese oil tankers to transit the strait while warning of potential attacks on vessels linked to the U.S. or its allies.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Recovery as Focus Shifts to the Fed

Posted on March 17, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Institutional demand has shown steady growth in recent days, while the main focus for markets this week will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday.

Bitcoin's upward momentum may expire soon. — Bitcoin’s upward momentum may expire soon.

Although the cryptocurrency market has posted slight declines in the past few hours, it has maintained a broader upward trend in recent days. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $73,700 after briefly touching $76,000 early Tuesday — its highest level since February 4. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is up more than 1.8%, holding above the $2,300 mark.

Altcoins are trading mixed. XRP has gained more than 1%, overtaking Binance Coin (BNB) as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, while BNB is down 2.3%. Tron (TRX) leads gains among major tokens, rising 1.4%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

The crypto market has shown notable resilience despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices close to $100 per barrel.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. While the decision itself is largely priced in, investors will closely monitor the tone of the statement for any signs of renewed global inflation risks.

ETF demand returns

Institutional demand continues to provide support, with spot Bitcoin ETFs extending their streak of net inflows to a sixth consecutive day. U.S.-listed funds recorded approximately $202 million in inflows on Monday, reinforcing investor appetite even amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to Binance Research, “markets are watching for signs of stabilization as spot BTC ETFs return to net inflows, while the peak of the U.S. tax refund season in the coming weeks could provide additional liquidity to risk assets.”

China: Industrial Output and Consumption Rebound; War Raises Concerns

Posted on March 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

China’s economy started 2026 on stronger footing than expected. Data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed an acceleration in industrial production and a rebound in consumption and investment during the January–February period.

While the figures provide some relief for President Xi Jinping’s government, the ongoing real estate downturn and rising unemployment continue to cloud the broader outlook. Uncertainty stemming from the war in the Middle East is also adding pressure due to China’s heavy dependence on energy imports.

Industrial production rose 6.3% year over year, above the 5.2% recorded in December and the 5% expected by market analysts. It was also the fastest pace of expansion since September of last year. The momentum was partly driven by strong demand linked to artificial intelligence, which has boosted activity across several industries within the technology supply chain.

ING Group chief economist Lynn Song said the data “continue to reflect China’s key strategy of industrial modernization.” High-tech manufacturing expanded 13.1% year over year, with industrial robotics production surging 31.1% at the start of the year. The computer and communications sector (14.2%) and transportation equipment — including rail, maritime and aerospace — (13.7%) also posted solid growth.

Rebound in consumption and investment

Retail sales — a key gauge of domestic consumption — increased 2.8% year over year, accelerating sharply from December’s weak 0.9% reading and surpassing the 2.5% expected by analysts. It marked the strongest rise since October. Part of the increase was linked to the Lunar New Year holiday, which this year lasted longer than usual and boosted tourism spending by nearly 19% compared with the same period last year.

Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment — which includes property and infrastructure — also surprised to the upside, rising 1.8% in the first two months of the year. Economists had expected a contraction of 2.1% following the 3.8% decline recorded in 2025, the first drop in nearly three decades.

Infrastructure investment led the recovery with an 11.4% increase, supported by government policies including a new bank financing instrument aimed at funding strategic projects.

Middle East tensions add uncertainty

Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS, acknowledged during a press conference that the war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global oil markets. However, he said China’s energy supply structure should help cushion the economy against external shocks. Even so, he warned that the conflict’s impact on domestic prices will require closer monitoring in the coming months.

Zichun Huang, an analyst at Capital Economics, noted that “while China is better positioned than most economies to cope with the consequences of the war with Iran, the annual budget presented at the National People’s Congress suggests fiscal policy will provide less support to the economy in 2026 than in 2025, which will likely weigh on growth toward the end of the year.”

Argentina Blocks Access to Polymarket Nationwide

Posted on March 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The ruling stems from a complaint filed by the Buenos Aires City Lottery (LOTBA), which alleged that the platform was operating as a disguised online betting system and allowed minors to participate.

A Buenos Aires court ordered the nationwide blocking of access to Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform. The decision followed an investigation triggered by a complaint from the Buenos Aires City Lottery (LOTBA), which found that the site was effectively operating as an unauthorized online gambling service. Authorities also instructed Google and Apple to restrict access to the platform’s mobile applications.

The case began after LOTBA — the entity responsible for regulating gambling activities in the city — reported that Polymarket was operating without authorization.

The investigation, which included technical support from the Judicial Investigations Unit (CIJ) of the Buenos Aires City Public Prosecutor’s Office, determined that the platform functioned as a concealed betting system under the label of “prediction markets.”

According to investigators, the site allowed transactions using cryptocurrencies and credit cards, did not require identity or age verification, and enabled users to create accounts within minutes, significantly increasing the risks for users.

Argentina blocks Polymarket and removes apps from Google and Apple

Authorities concluded that these irregularities made it possible for anyone — including children and teenagers — to place bets without oversight. Based on the evidence gathered by prosecutors, the court led by Judge Susana Parada ordered internet providers to block access to the platform and all related domains “throughout the entire territory of the Argentine Republic.”

The order applies nationwide. To implement the measure, Argentina’s communications regulator ENACOM was instructed to coordinate with internet service providers to enforce the block.

The ruling also instructs technology companies Google and Apple to remove and restrict access to Polymarket’s mobile applications on Android and iOS devices across the country. The measure also applies to users already registered in Argentina.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are digital platforms that allow users to wager real money on the outcome of various events — ranging from elections and sporting events to geopolitical developments and other public-interest topics.

In practice, these platforms present themselves as tools for collective forecasting or data-driven analysis. However, their mechanics closely resemble those of traditional betting platforms: money is at stake, outcomes are uncertain, and participants face the possibility of gains or losses.

In a recent controversy, following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. authorities, Polymarket declined to pay out bets placed on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela. The platform argued that the operation to extract the former leader did not meet its criteria for an “invasion.”

Ethereum Jumps Over 10% as Bitcoin Hits One-Month High

Posted on March 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Cryptocurrencies started the week with broad gains. Bitcoin rose about 3.3% in the past 24 hours, trading near $74,500 and reaching a one-and-a-half-month high, according to Binance. Meanwhile, Ethereum surged more than 10% to around $2,360.

The rally has spread across the broader market. Altcoins are posting gains of up to 7.4%, led by XRP, Solana (up 5.8%) and Dogecoin (up 6.7%).

[[ETH/USD-graph]]

ETF inflows and short squeeze drive the rally

According to market analysts, cryptocurrencies—especially Bitcoin—have outperformed many other assets since the start of the war in the Middle East. A key driver has been continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Over the past five days, these funds recorded net inflows of more than $760 million, with no sessions showing capital outflows. At the same time, spot Ethereum ETFs attracted roughly $160 million, signaling sustained interest from institutional investors.

Another factor supporting prices has been a short squeeze in derivatives markets. Data from CoinGlass shows that about $344 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, nearly 80% of them short positions. Investors betting on price declines were forced to close their trades, adding fuel to the rally.

Geopolitical signals and Fed outlook

On the macro front, markets also reacted to possible signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Donald Trump said the United States is holding talks with Iran, although officials in Tehran denied requesting a ceasefire.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi also indicated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial vessels that do not belong to countries considered hostile. Over the weekend, two liquefied gas tankers bound for India successfully crossed the passage, marking the first commercial transit since the conflict began.

Even so, oil prices remain elevated, with Brent Crude still trading above $100 per barrel.

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve, which could influence the direction of risk assets in the coming weeks.

Goldman Sachs Says Middle East War Will Cut Global GDP by 0.3%

Posted on March 16, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Goldman Sachs estimates that the surge in energy prices triggered by the war in the Middle East could reduce global GDP growth by about 0.3 percentage points and increase worldwide inflation by 0.5 to 0.6 points over the next year.

Tensions are brewing up again in the Middle East

The projection comes from a report published Sunday by economists Joseph Briggs and Megan Peters, who revised their energy price forecasts following the escalation of the conflict involving Iran and rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important corridors for global energy trade.

According to the bank, standard macroeconomic models suggest that the energy shock caused by the conflict will have a direct impact on both economic growth and inflation worldwide.

Goldman Sachs revises global outlook

Under this new scenario, Goldman Sachs now expects global economic growth to reach about 2.6%, down from the 2.9% forecast before the conflict began. At the same time, global inflation could rise to around 2.9%, compared with the 2.3% previously expected.

The bank had already revised its outlook for the United States last week. In that report, economists Manuel Abecasis and David Mericle said the main transmission channel from the conflict to the U.S. economy would be higher oil prices.

Goldman Sachs estimates that U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter could reach 2.2% year over year, about 0.3 percentage points below previous projections, while full-year growth could remain close to 2.6%.

Higher oil price forecasts

The bank also raised its projections for oil. It now expects Brent Crude to average around $98 per barrel between March and April, roughly 40% higher than the average price in 2025.

In scenarios of greater geopolitical tension, prices could climb even further. If prolonged supply disruptions occur through the Strait of Hormuz, crude could rise to $110 or even $145 per barrel.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Despite these risks, Goldman Sachs believes the macroeconomic impact of the conflict could be more limited than the shock seen after the pandemic, when supply chain disruptions affected multiple sectors simultaneously.

In contrast, the current shock is more concentrated in the energy market. Non-energy trade with Gulf countries accounts for only about 1% of global trade, reducing the risk of widespread disruptions to global production or commerce.

The main challenge, the report concludes, will be higher energy costs and their effect on inflation, which could prompt central banks to maintain a more cautious stance on monetary policy. Financial markets have already begun reflecting this shift, with rising expectations for higher interest rates toward the end of 2026 in several advanced economies, including the United States, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom.

Mexican Peso Weakens Against Dollar After Trump Threatens Iran

Posted on March 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar on Friday and posted a weekly loss, as markets turned cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the United States could strike Iran “with severity” next week.

The currency depreciated amid concerns that tensions between the United States and Iran could escalate over the weekend.

The exchange rate ended the session at 17.9489 pesos per dollar, compared with Thursday’s official close of 17.8449, according to data from Bank of Mexico. The move represented a loss of 10.40 centavos, or 0.58%.

During the session, the dollar traded between a high of 17.9727 pesos and a low of 17.7488. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.78% to 100.53.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Trump comments rattle markets

Trump said the United States would hit Iran “with severity” next week, escalating his rhetoric. Only days earlier, he had suggested the conflict could end sooner than previously expected.

Markets were also reacting to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments, attributed to Iran. U.S. crude futures were trading around $99.28 per barrel despite efforts to ease supply concerns.

The geopolitical backdrop adds another layer of uncertainty. Oil prices hovering near $100 per barrel are a double-edged sword for Mexico: while higher prices boost oil revenues, they also risk importing inflationary pressures.

Economic data

In Mexico, industrial activity declined in January after three consecutive months of gains, marking its weakest reading since December 2024. The drop reflected deterioration across all major components, according to seasonally adjusted data.

Earlier in the day, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic figures also weighed on sentiment. Gross domestic product slowed more than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, while consumer spending rose more than expected in January.

Weekly loss

Against this backdrop, the peso ended the week with a cumulative loss. Compared with last Friday’s official close of 17.8034 per dollar, the currency fell 16.93 centavos, or 0.95%.

Analysts expect pressure on the peso to persist as geopolitical risks remain elevated.

U.S. Opens Trade Investigation Before Trump–Xi Meeting

Posted on March 13, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. Treasury Secretary and China’s vice premier will meet this weekend in the French capital for a new round of trade negotiations, as tensions rise following fresh U.S. trade investigations targeting 60 economies, including China.

Trade war between the United States and Chine is heating up.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Sunday and Monday in Paris, in what is expected to be the sixth round of trade talks between the two powers since U.S. President Donald Trump revived his tariff offensive against Beijing last year.

The development comes just hours after Washington announced a new investigation into alleged unfair trade practices in 60 countries, including China.

The discussions are seen as preparatory work for Trump’s state visit to China, scheduled for March 31, where he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Beijing has not officially confirmed the meeting, though Foreign Minister Wang Yi said days ago that “a schedule of high-level exchanges is already on the table” and that 2026 will be “a major year” for bilateral relations.

“Thanks to the relationship of mutual respect between President Trump and President Xi, economic and trade dialogue between the United States and China is moving forward,” Bessent said in a statement. He added that the negotiating team will continue working to ensure outcomes that “put American farmers, workers, and businesses first.”

Underlying tensions

The Paris meeting comes amid growing tensions. On Thursday, Washington announced trade investigations into industrial overcapacity involving 16 key partners, including China. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative also opened probes into 60 economies over alleged forced labor practices.

Beijing responded sharply, calling the investigations illegal, rejecting the forced labor accusations, and warning that it “reserves the right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights and interests.”

The moves are part of Trump’s effort to rebuild global tariff pressure after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled on Feb. 20 that his global tariffs were illegal. In response, the president imposed a 10% across-the-board tariff for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.