Mexican Peso Drops Sharply Against the Dollar as Oil Prices Surge

Posted on March 21, 2026March 21, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso weakened and ended the week with a slight cumulative loss, as markets remained focused on developments in the Middle East conflict.

The currency depreciated sharply against the U.S. dollar in Friday’s session, reversing earlier gains and reflecting renewed risk aversion tied to geopolitical tensions and their potential economic impact.

The exchange rate closed at 17.9557 pesos per dollar, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). Compared to the previous close of 17.7396, this represented a decline of 21.61 centavos, or 1.22%.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.9963 at the high and 17.7092 at the low. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.34% to 99.54.

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Oil concerns weigh on sentiment

Clashes involving the United States and Israel against Iran have impacted energy infrastructure in the Middle East. This, combined with Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has created a complex backdrop that pushed WTI crude up 2.38% to $97.82.

Iraqi authorities also declared force majeure across all oil fields operated by foreign companies, meaning operations may be suspended or disrupted without contractual penalties due to circumstances beyond their control.

Focus on inflation and Banxico

This week, the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) all left interest rates unchanged, citing heightened uncertainty stemming from the conflict.

Attention now turns to Banxico, which is expected to announce its policy decision next week. Markets anticipate that it will also keep rates on hold. In addition, Mexico’s mid-month inflation data will be closely watched ahead of the announcement.

Weekly performance and outlook

Despite Friday’s decline, the peso posted only a marginal weekly loss. Compared to last Friday’s official close of 17.9489 per dollar, the currency slipped just 0.04%, according to Banxico data.

In the near term, markets are likely to remain highly volatile. Any signs of de-escalation in the conflict could trigger sharp rebounds, though these may prove difficult to sustain.

Super Micro SMCI Stock Plunges 33% After Allegations of AI Chip Smuggling to China

Posted on March 20, 2026March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

After the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) filed criminal charges against three people connected to Super Micro Computer, including its co-founder, over an alleged scheme to smuggle artificial intelligence technology worth at least $2.5 billion to China, the company’s shares fell 27% on Friday in Wall Street trading.

Shares of Super Micro Computer plunged 27%.

The premarket drop alone wiped out more than $4 billion from the company’s $18.49 billion market capitalization. Super Micro, a key manufacturer of AI servers powered by NVIDIA chips, clarified that it is not named as a defendant in the case and stated that it cooperated with investigators throughout the process.

Those charged include co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, sales manager Ruei-Tsang Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei Sun.

According to the indictment, the three allegedly coordinated a scheme to export U.S.-made servers through Taiwan to Southeast Asia, where the products were repackaged in unmarked boxes and then illegally shipped into China. Between April and mid-May 2025 alone, shipments reportedly exceeded $500 million.

The San Jose–based company has suspended the employees involved and terminated its relationship with the contractor. However, the scale of the scandal has already raised concerns among industry analysts.

Analysts at Bernstein warned that the charges pose “serious credibility issues that could impact the business” and flagged the risk of a potential distancing by NVIDIA. “If that happens, it could disrupt SMCI’s critical GPU supply and have severe consequences,” they noted.

A stock already under pressure

The case adds to existing headwinds.

In 2022, Washington imposed export controls on advanced semiconductors aimed at limiting China’s access to cutting-edge technology and slowing the development of its AI capabilities. Super Micro had previously acknowledged that these restrictions affected some of its products, including those incorporating NVIDIA’s A100 and H100 chips.

The stock had already been under pressure since 2024, when the company reached a peak valuation of $67 billion amid surging demand for AI hardware.

Since then, margin compression in server assembly and allegations raised by short-seller Hindenburg Research (now defunct) had weighed on the share price. The latest legal developments are now intensifying that downward trend.

AMD vs. Broadcom: Which AI Chip Maker Has Greater Upside Potential?

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Both companies are deeply involved in the development of AI chips, but they differ significantly in strategy, positioning, and investment outlook.

AMD stock offers great upside potential.

The competition between Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom is intensifying amid the artificial intelligence boom—a market that is not only reshaping the tech industry but also driving record growth and valuations on Wall Street.

Both firms have delivered strong performance, albeit with some differences. Over the past year, Broadcom’s stock has surged 69%, while AMD has also posted gains of over 60%, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm for AI-related chipmakers.

Broadcom: Scale and diversification

The key differences emerge when looking at operating metrics. Broadcom stands out for its scale and diversification.

In the first fiscal quarter of 2026 alone, its semiconductor division generated $12.52 billion in revenue, marking a 52% year-over-year increase. This is complemented by its infrastructure software business—strengthened by the acquisition of VMware—which provides recurring revenue and greater earnings visibility.

The AI segment is growing even faster. Broadcom expects to generate $10.7 billion in AI-related revenue in the second quarter of 2026, implying a 140% year-over-year increase.

Market estimates suggest that its AI-related revenues could exceed $41 billion in 2026, with strong growth potential in the years ahead.

AMD: A growth-driven strategy

By contrast, AMD presents a growth-oriented profile, focused on expanding market share.

The company has gained traction in the server market, reaching roughly 36.5% share, challenging the dominance of Intel. It is also investing aggressively in high-performance AI chips.

AMD has secured key strategic agreements, including large-scale processor supply deals for data centers, reinforcing its positioning among major tech players.

On the financial side, the company announced a $6 billion share buyback program, bringing total authorization to around $10 billion.

However, its free cash flow declined more than 33% in a recent quarter, falling to $727 million—highlighting some near-term financial pressures.

Different strategic focus

Another key distinction lies in strategic positioning.

Broadcom dominates the custom chip (ASIC) segment, a fast-growing niche as major tech companies increasingly design tailored AI solutions. The company sees a market opportunity exceeding $100 billion in this space over the coming years.

AMD, on the other hand, competes in the more visible segment of GPUs and standard AI accelerators, where the total addressable market is massive—but competition is intense, particularly from NVIDIA.

Bottom line for investors

The data reflects two distinct investment approaches within the same AI megatrend:

Broadcom offers scale, diversification, and more stable cash flows, supported by large, long-term contracts.
AMD provides higher growth potential, but with greater volatility and short-term financial challenges.

In a market that could reach trillions of dollars over the next decade, both companies are well positioned—but with clearly different paths to capturing that opportunity.

Gold Plunges, Headed for Worst Week in Six Years

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Gold is heading for its steepest weekly decline in six years, pressured by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which has driven energy prices higher and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks.

Gold futures traded near $4,689 per ounce on Friday, up 1.48% on the day but down 7.4% for the week — the sharpest weekly loss since March 2020. In the spot market, gold was quoted at $4,687.57.

On Thursday, the metal posted its seventh consecutive daily decline, marking its longest losing streak since October 2023. Gold has been under sustained pressure since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran late last month.

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Why gold is falling

The surge in oil and gas prices driven by the conflict has reignited inflation concerns, limiting central banks’ ability to ease monetary policy. For gold — a non-yielding asset — this environment is particularly unfavorable.

The correction has been exacerbated by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, while investors have been liquidating gold holdings to cover losses in other asset classes. Gold-backed ETFs have also recorded outflows, signaling weak demand for safe-haven exposure.

In this context, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at its midweek meeting, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that policymakers will need to see tangible progress on inflation before resuming the path toward monetary easing.

Other precious metals have also come under pressure. Silver fell below $72.06 per ounce, posting a weekly decline of nearly 12%, while palladium and platinum are also on track for negative weekly closes.

Mexican Peso Gains Against the Dollar After U.S. Measures to Contain Oil Surge

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso rebounded against the U.S. dollar in Thursday trading, reversing early-session losses after the United States issued an exemption allowing the sale of Russian oil to help ease pressure on global energy prices.

The exchange rate closed at 17.7396 pesos per dollar, according to official data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). Compared with the previous close of 17.8265, the currency gained 8.69 centavos, or 0.49%.

The dollar traded within a range of 17.9600 at the high and 17.7783 at the low. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.09% to 99.21.

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Easing volatility supports the peso

Earlier in the session, markets had shown a more risk-off tone, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on risk assets after Iran targeted energy infrastructure in the Middle East. However, the U.S. announcement helped contain volatility in energy markets and improve overall sentiment.

The Mexican peso showed notable resilience, with analysts pointing to global energy dynamics as the key driver in the near term. Additional support came from comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who stated that Iran no longer has the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles following weeks of airstrikes.

Focus shifts to central banks and data

The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged in its latest decision, while both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank followed suit, reinforcing a cautious stance amid geopolitical uncertainty.

On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 205,000 for last week, below expectations and down from a revised 213,000 in the prior week, signaling continued resilience in the labor market.

NVIDIA Edges Past Silver in Total Asset Value

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

One of the key drivers behind silver’s recent decline has been the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which has climbed to its highest levels in months, making the precious metal more expensive for international buyers and dampening global demand.

Against this backdrop, NVIDIA, the global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) computing, has surpassed silver in market value, becoming the world’s second most valuable asset, behind only gold.

Spot silver fell 5.23% to $71.44 per ounce on Thursday, marking its third consecutive daily decline and bringing cumulative losses to 11.6% over that period. For the year, the metal is now slightly down by 0.1%.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA shares slipped 1.02% to $178.56, extending their year-to-date decline to 4.26% in 2026.

Despite the pullback in its stock price, NVIDIA’s market capitalization reached $4.339 trillion, surpassing silver’s $4.119 trillion, according to Companies Market Cap data.

[[NVDA/USD-graph]]

Gold remains the most valuable asset globally, with a market value of $32.399 trillion. Among equities, Alphabet ranks next with $3.69 trillion, followed by Apple at $3.65 trillion, Microsoft at $2.89 trillion, and Amazon at $2.24 trillion.

Why silver is under pressure

The precious metals market has experienced a sharp sell-off in recent days, driven by several macroeconomic factors.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range at its March meeting and signaled only one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of three. This “higher-for-longer” stance reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar’s strength has added further pressure. Because silver is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more expensive globally, weakening demand.

More broadly, a tighter global monetary backdrop — with major central banks such as the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan signaling caution — has reinforced expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer.

Rising oil prices have also contributed to inflation concerns, further reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets and weighing on the broader commodities complex.

AI leadership supports NVIDIA’s valuation

Despite recent volatility, NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI infrastructure continues to underpin its valuation and allows it to overtake silver in total market value.

The stock has faced pressure from investor concerns over elevated valuation multiples and questions about the long-term returns on AI-related capital expenditures. However, the company continues to deliver strong earnings growth, outpacing much of the broader market.

Even so, increased capital spending and heightened scrutiny over profitability have introduced volatility, highlighting the tension between strong structural growth and near-term market expectations.

Gold and Silver Drop Up to 6.4%, Losing Safe-Haven Appeal

Posted on March 20, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Precious metals extended their losses on Thursday despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, elevated interest rates, and a lack of hedging demand from investors.

Silver’s Momentum Reset Sets Silver’s Volatile Surge Faces Reality Check as Markets Reassess Risk

Gold and silver continued their downward trend, deepening declines accumulated over recent days — a move that stands out given the geopolitical backdrop, where such assets have historically served as safe havens.

In the spot market, gold fell 5.1% to around $4,500 per ounce. Silver posted an even steeper decline, dropping 6.4%, capping a clearly negative week for both metals.

The sell-off unfolded amid heightened global uncertainty, with declines across both equity and bond markets, as investors closely monitor the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, now entering its third week.

Why precious metals are falling

Contrary to typical market behavior, precious metals are failing to attract safe-haven flows. According to analysts at Julius Baer, prices have weakened since the start of the week, breaking key levels — $5,000 for gold and $80 for silver — highlighting a notable lack of investor interest in hedging under current conditions.

Several factors are driving this dynamic. Chief among them are the strengthening U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain less inclined to ease monetary policy.

“Gold and silver markets are barely reacting to the conflict in the Middle East,” Julius Baer analysts noted, adding that any geopolitical-driven upside is being offset by macroeconomic headwinds.

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Similarly, analysts at Kingswood Group pointed out that many investors are even selling traditionally defensive assets to raise liquidity. “We are seeing a phase where safe havens are also being liquidated to fund positions in assets that have reacted more sharply,” they said.

Logistical challenges are also playing a role. Disruptions to air and maritime routes due to the conflict are making the physical transport of gold more expensive and complex, further weighing on demand.

Another key signal is the lack of inflows into gold-backed investment vehicles, suggesting that even at current price levels, hedging demand remains subdued.

Looking ahead, analysts agree that gold may only regain its safe-haven role if global conditions deteriorate further and financial stress intensifies. Silver, however, faces a more challenging outlook, as its performance tends to be more closely tied to the economic cycle than to crisis-driven demand for protection.

Global Merchandise Trade Growth to Slow by Nearly 2% in 2026

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), rising oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the outlook for artificial intelligence investment are weighing on global trade prospects.

Global trade and globalization are declining.

The organization also warned that the war in the Middle East could further worsen the outlook.

Global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, and could decelerate further if the conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up energy prices and disrupt global transport, the WTO said in a report.

If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain elevated throughout 2026 due to the conflict, trade growth could slow even further to 1.4%, WTO economists added. A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would impact major importers such as India, Thailand, and Brazil, increasing risks to global food security.

Higher energy prices could shave 0.5 percentage points off trade growth, with Asian and European importers among the most affected. Services trade is also expected to weaken, with growth projected to decline by 0.7 percentage points — from 4.8% to 4.1% — due to disruptions in maritime and air transport. Services trade expanded 5.3% last year.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that while global trade remains resilient — supported in part by AI-related goods — the outlook is increasingly threatened by escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

AI outlook adds uncertainty

Last year, global merchandise trade grew at nearly twice the expected pace, as strong demand for AI-related products — including chips and semiconductors — offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.

AI-related goods accounted for 42% of global trade growth, despite representing only about one-sixth of total trade. The segment expanded 21.9% year over year to reach $4.18 trillion in 2025. However, the report flagged the sustainability of investment in the sector as “a major uncertainty for 2026 and beyond.”

For this year, global trade in goods and services and global GDP are expected to grow at roughly similar rates — 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively — following growth of 4.7% and 2.9% last year.

Asia is projected to lead merchandise import growth in 2026, with imports rising 3.3% and exports 3.5%, followed by Africa with 3.2% import growth and 1.2% export growth. North America, by contrast, is expected to remain relatively flat, with imports increasing just 0.3%.

Around 72% of global trade is currently conducted under most-favored-nation (MFN) terms, down from roughly 80% at the start of last year, after former President Donald Trump imposed higher import tariffs, WTO economists said. Under MFN rules, WTO members are required to treat all trading partners equally.

Against this backdrop, a new WTO conference will be held in Cameroon next week, where trade ministers are set to discuss potential reforms to the global trade body.

Mexican Peso Weakens Against the Dollar After Fed Policy Announcement

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The peso, which had already been declining since the open following stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data, extended its losses in line with its regional peers.

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar in midweek trading. The local currency, already under pressure from the start of the session, deepened its losses alongside other regional currencies as markets reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest communication.

The exchange rate closed the session at 17.8265 per dollar. Compared to 17.6645 in the previous session, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), this represented a loss of 16.20 centavos, or 0.92%.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.8774 and a low of 17.6019 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.74% to 100.30 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The Fed announcement

In line with expectations, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The central bank projected higher inflation and a stable unemployment rate, while maintaining its outlook for just one rate cut in 2026.

Market expectations have remained anchored since last week at a single 25-basis-point cut in the December 9 meeting, so the announcement was largely anticipated, said Jorge Adrián Calderón, a fixed income and interest rate derivatives trader.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain. He added that economic activity continues to expand solidly, although job creation has been modest.

A stronger dollar

The dollar also strengthened after Powell signaled that a rate hike cannot be ruled out, even if it is not the base case. The currency had already been gaining since the open following stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data and developments related to Iran.

The peso initially started the session on a positive note, but the exchange rate came under pressure as markets reacted to geopolitical headlines, particularly Iran’s statement identifying energy infrastructure as potential targets.

Earlier in the day, data showed that U.S. producer prices rose well above expectations in February, increasing 0.7% compared to forecasts of 0.3%, not yet reflecting the surge in oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict.

Gold: More Central Banks Buying, but in Smaller Amounts

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Global central bank statistics and the broader gold market point to a slight slowdown in buying momentum at the start of the year, although it is worth noting that the base of demand continues to broaden.

Investor repositioning amid the Middle East conflict and the surge in oil and gas prices remains unclear. Still, gold remains firmly on the radar. It is also true that since the launch of Operation “Epic Fury” by the United States and Israel against Iran, gold prices initially reacted sharply before easing alongside optimistic statements from President Donald Trump. After hovering around $5,000 per ounce, prices have recently slipped to just above $4,800. Several factors may explain this softness, including central bank responses to the evolving global landscape and some degree of demand fatigue after years of heavy accumulation.

That said, the year began with solid demand from retail investors, ETFs, and central banks. The latest available data show that central banks continued to buy gold in January, albeit at a slower pace, while the pool of buyers expanded. According to the World Gold Council, Bank Negara Malaysia made its first net gold purchase since 2018 (3 tons), while the Bank of Korea is considering resuming gold investments for the first time since 2013. Analysts note that geopolitical uncertainty remains a persistent driver of central bank demand, even if January’s heightened volatility proved an exception.

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What happened in January?

Central banks purchased a net 5 tons, well below last year’s monthly average of 27 tons.
Buying was led by central banks in Central and East Asia, though Eastern European institutions also increased reserves. Notably, Central Asia saw activity on both sides: Uzbekistan was among the largest buyers (9 tons), while Kazakhstan was a net seller (1 ton). Russia was the largest seller, offloading 9 tons.
The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) sold 2 tons of gold, but this decline corresponds to an equivalent increase in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) gold reserves, as Bulgaria joins the European Union as its 21st member.
The early-year slowdown in central bank gold purchases—compared to the 27-ton monthly average over the past 12 months—may be linked to price volatility and seasonal factors such as the holiday period, which could have given some central bankers pause. Nevertheless, analysts believe that persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain gold accumulation through 2026 and beyond.

It is worth recalling that gold prices reached highs above $5,300 in January. Even so, central bank buying momentum remained resilient despite elevated prices.

Key reported activity in January:

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan purchased 9 tons, extending its buying streak since October. This brought its total gold reserves to 399 tons. The growth has been remarkable, rising from 57% of total reserves in 2020 to 86% in January 2026.

Bank Negara Malaysia emerged as a new buyer, adding 3 tons—its first increase since 2018—bringing total reserves to 42 tons, or 5% of its total reserves.

Other buyers included the Czech Republic (2 tons), Indonesia (2 tons), and China and Serbia (1 ton each).

China’s 15 consecutive months of gold purchases have lifted gold holdings to nearly 10% of its total reserves.