Wall Street Starts April Higher on Middle East Ceasefire Signals

Posted on April 1, 2026April 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Major global equity indexes showed a shift in investor sentiment after the latest remarks from Donald Trump.

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, April 1, starting the month on a positive note after a late rally helped Wall Street close a difficult March with a more optimistic tone. Expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East were reinforced after Trump said Iran’s new government had requested a ceasefire.

In that context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 46,565.86 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.69% to 6,573.89 points, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.16% to 21,840.95 points.

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Could the conflict be nearing a ceasefire?

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the president of Iran’s new government had requested a ceasefire from the United States.

However, he also warned that Washington would only consider such a move once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear.” Until then, he said, the U.S. military would continue its operations.

If confirmed by Iran, such a development would represent a meaningful step toward de-escalation. Still, uncertainty remains around the Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows. Since the start of the conflict, shipping disruptions there have helped drive global crude prices sharply higher.

Trump also said negotiations were progressing, although Iranian officials have often downplayed such claims. Tehran has acknowledged exchanges of messages and expressed a willingness to end the war, provided it receives guarantees that it will not face further attacks.

Economic data: strong consumption and expanding manufacturing

The most relevant data release of the day came from the United States Census Bureau, which reported that retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in February to $738.4 billion. The figure exceeded market expectations of a 0.4% increase and reversed the 0.2% decline recorded in January.

The data suggest consumer spending remains resilient, although the report does not yet reflect the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management showed a slight improvement. The PMI rose to 52.7 in March, remaining in expansion territory and marking the seventeenth consecutive month of economic growth.

After the monetary tightening cycle that began in 2022, the manufacturing sector had spent several years mostly in contraction. However, it began recovering in 2026 following cumulative interest-rate cuts of 175 basis points by the Federal Reserve.

According to Matt Stucky, the most notable component of the report was the prices-paid index, which rose to 78.3 points, reflecting inflationary pressures linked to higher energy, transportation, and raw material costs.

Notable stocks of the session

Shares of Nike Inc. plunged 15.5% despite beating revenue and earnings expectations, as investors reacted to weakness in China and margin pressure.
Eli Lilly and Company rose 3.7% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved a new oral obesity drug, orforglipron.
Alcoa Corporation (+8.6%) and Century Aluminum (+8.2%) advanced after reports of production disruptions in the United Arab Emirates linked to attacks related to the conflict.
Intel Corporation gained 8.8% after announcing the repurchase of a 49% stake in its Fab 34 joint venture in Ireland for $14.2 billion.

Mexican Peso Rises for Second Day Against the Dollar on Stronger Risk Appetite

Posted on April 1, 2026April 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday, advancing for a second straight session as market sentiment improved on expectations that the war in the Middle East could end soon.

The spot exchange rate stood at 17.8317 pesos per dollar. Compared with Tuesday’s close of 17.9252, according to official data from Bank of Mexico, the move represented a gain of 9.35 centavos, or 0.52%.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.9147 and a low of 17.7958 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index — which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major peers — fell 0.34% to 99.55 points.

The greenback weakened across markets as risk appetite improved and oil prices declined on expectations that the conflict between the United States and Iran could end within weeks, according to several reports.

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Markets watch Trump closely

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that military operations in Iran could end soon. He added that the Iranian government had requested a “ceasefire,” though he noted that any consideration would depend on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump is expected to address the nation later in the evening with an update on the conflict, according to the White House. Markets are watching closely for any announcement that could ease concerns about inflation and global growth.

Trump’s narrative — describing Iran’s new president as “smart” and suggesting the conflict could conclude within weeks — helped restore investor appetite for risk assets.

Local data and expectations

On the economic front, solid U.S. data provided additional support to markets. Retail sales rose strongly in February, private employment continued to grow in March, and manufacturing activity also rebounded during the month.

Domestically, the Bank of Mexico released the results of its survey of private-sector analysts. The consensus forecast sees the peso ending the year at 18.10 per dollar, unchanged from the previous month, implying a depreciation of nearly 1.5%.

Limited movement in the exchange rate is expected in the coming sessions due to public holidays in Mexico. Traders will remain focused on developments in the Middle East while awaiting further news that could confirm the recent improvement in market sentiment.

Warren Buffett Says He Sold Apple Inc. Stock “Too Early”

Posted on April 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Legendary investor Warren Buffett acknowledged that his decision to sell shares of Apple Inc. came sooner than it should have, costing billions in potential gains in one of the most debated investment moves of recent years.

Buffett began reducing Berkshire Hathaway’s stake in Apple toward the end of 2023, in a process that continued through 2024 and 2025. In total, the conglomerate cut roughly two-thirds of its position during a period in which the stock kept climbing and hitting new record highs.

“I sold it too early,” Buffett admitted in a recent interview with CNBC, though he quickly tempered the comment by noting that Berkshire entered the investment at an early stage, allowing it to capture extraordinary gains over time.

Buffett’s long relationship with Apple

The history of the investment helps explain the scale of the outcome. Berkshire began buying Apple shares in 2016, a move that marked a break from Buffett’s traditional reluctance to invest heavily in large technology companies.

Over the years, the position grew to become the largest holding in Berkshire’s portfolio, reaching a value of more than $170 billion in 2023.

Even after the sales, Apple remains Berkshire’s largest stake, currently valued at roughly $62 billion — highlighting both the scale of the original investment and its importance to the conglomerate’s overall performance.

In profitability terms, the results have been striking. Berkshire generated more than $100 billion in pre-tax gains from the investment, cementing Apple as one of the most successful bets in Buffett’s career.

Why Berkshire reduced the stake

Despite Buffett’s self-criticism, the decision to sell was not impulsive. One of the main reasons, he explained, was portfolio concentration: Apple had grown to represent an unusually large share of Berkshire’s holdings, increasing overall risk.

Market conditions also played a role. Elevated valuations and the desire to lock in profits after a prolonged bull run influenced the decision, alongside tax considerations that encouraged trimming the position.

Even so, Buffett emphasized that he does not regret the broader strategy. His approach prioritizes discipline, diversification, and risk management over capturing every possible dollar of upside.

He also left the door open to future purchases. If Apple’s share price falls to more attractive levels, Berkshire could increase its stake again, though for now Buffett believes valuations remain demanding.

Warren Buffett Says War-Driven Market Drop “Is Nothing” Historically

Posted on April 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Wall Street suffered the impact of the war in the Middle East throughout March, although markets began April with modest gains.

As global markets go through one of their most volatile periods in recent years due to the conflict in the Middle East, legendary investor Warren Buffett downplayed the stock market’s decline in March 2026 with a remark that brought both calm and controversy to the financial world: “It’s nothing.”

The comment comes at a delicate moment. Wall Street ended March with its worst weekly performance since the conflict between the United States and Iran began, marking five consecutive weeks of losses — the longest negative streak in nearly four years. Geopolitical uncertainty and the lack of clear signals about how the conflict may unfold have kept investors cautious.

Buffett’s view on the war-driven market downturn

The remark aligns with Buffett’s long-standing investment philosophy. Known for his long-term perspective, he has often downplayed short-term corrections, arguing that market downturns are a natural part of the cycle and frequently represent opportunities rather than threats.

History partly supports that view. In an interview with CNBC, Buffett pointed to past crisis periods — including the Global Financial Crisis — noting that markets have historically recovered, even if the path back is marked by volatility and economic costs.

From a weak March to a modest rebound in April

March’s weekly performance underscored the pressure on equities. The S&P 500 fell 1.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 793 points — leaving it more than 10% below its recent record — and the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.1%.

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Market trading reflected extreme sensitivity, with sessions swinging between gains and losses as investors reacted to each new development related to the conflict.

However, the start of April brought a modest rebound. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow Jones gained 0.5%, and the Nasdaq led the advance with a 0.9% increase.

China’s Manufacturing Sector Expands Again Despite War

Posted on April 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

China’s factory activity improved in March and returned to expansion territory, even as the escalation of the war in the Middle East increased pressure on production costs and energy prices.

Trade war between the United States and Chine is heating up.

According to official data cited by Bloomberg L.P., the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.4 in March, up from 49 in February. The reading also came slightly above market expectations of 50.1. A figure above 50 indicates expansion in activity.

The improvement follows a start to the year in which the industrial sector had begun to regain momentum, supported by government stimulus and still-solid demand in some segments. However, the new international environment has once again put pressure on factories, particularly due to rising costs for key raw materials and logistical disruptions stemming from the conflict.

The cost of war reaches factories

Chinese manufacturers faced their largest increase in input and production costs since 2022 during March. The rise was largely driven by the surge in crude oil prices, which ended several months of declining costs in that category.

Higher prices for industrial metals such as copper and aluminum also added pressure to the sector’s cost structure.

In many cases, companies were forced to absorb part of these increases rather than fully pass them on to customers, further compressing profit margins. A statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics of China told Bloomberg that the combined pressure from higher commodity prices and rising logistics costs explained much of the deterioration seen in March.

Despite these challenges, industrial activity managed to remain resilient. Part of that resilience was also reflected in shipping data, as China’s port cargo volumes continued to show strength during the first weeks of March — a sign that external disruptions have not yet significantly slowed export flows.

The official data were released one day ahead of a private manufacturing survey, which typically focuses more on small and medium-sized export-oriented companies. That report is closely watched because it complements the official PMI reading and helps determine whether the improvement reflects a broader recovery or isolated pockets of growth within the economy.

Trade tensions remain a risk

At the same time, trade relations with the United States continue to weigh on the outlook. Although some tensions have eased in recent hours, the relationship between Washington and China remains marked by tariff uncertainty and the risk of renewed friction at a particularly sensitive moment for the Chinese economy.

Economists at Bloomberg Economics said the manufacturing sector is still showing signs of resilience but noted that the overall outlook remains constrained by the persistence of the war and the weakness still affecting other parts of the economy.

They warned that a worsening global environment could increase the need for additional policy support in the coming months.

In a separate assessment, Raymond Yeung said the industrial sector had performed relatively well, highlighting the recovery in the production subindex. Still, he added that China’s economic outlook will depend largely on how long the war lasts and how strongly it affects global growth and inflation.

Wall Street Jumps Up to 3.8% as Oil Falls on Hopes of War’s End

Posted on April 1, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The war in the Middle East has triggered record volatility in global financial markets, although equities staged a strong rebound on the final trading day of the month as hopes grow that the conflict could soon come to an end. Oil prices, meanwhile, appear to have found a floor above $100 per barrel.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

Major U.S. stock indexes surged on Tuesday, March 31, driven by optimism surrounding a potential de-escalation in the Middle East. The joint military operation by the United States and Israel against Iran took a more positive turn after a report suggested that President Donald Trump told advisers he would be willing to withdraw from the war even if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened.

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.49% to 46,341.21 points. The S&P 500 gained 2.92% to 6,528.99 points, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.83% to 21,590.63 points.

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Despite the rally, March was a negative month for the main indexes. The Dow Jones fell 5.4%, the S&P 500 declined 5.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.84%.

Trump says war with Iran will not last “much longer”

The The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump may be willing to end the military campaign, which has lasted more than a month, even though Iran continues to maintain firm control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Its effective closure for weeks triggered a sharp rise in oil prices and raised concerns about a potential global recession. Trump and his advisers reportedly assessed that a mission to reopen the strait would extend the conflict beyond its planned four-to-six-week timeline.

Instead, the president opted to intensify attacks on Iran’s navy and missile arsenal while pursuing a reduction in hostilities through diplomatic pressure on Tehran, according to the report, which cited administration officials. Washington would rely on its allies in Europe and the Persian Gulf to lead any operation in the strait if diplomatic efforts fail.

Trump later told the New York Post that the war would not last “much longer” and that the strait would reopen “automatically.”

However, Iranian state television reported that the Revolutionary Guard warned 18 U.S. technology companies — including Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet Inc. — to expect attacks starting April 1.

Oil prices remain elevated

Brent crude futures for May delivery rose 5.1% to $118.55 per barrel. By contrast, the June Brent contract was little changed at $107.41 per barrel.

Brent is now on track for its largest quarterly percentage gain since the Gulf War.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.5% to $104.46 per barrel.

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There is growing concern that the energy crisis could reignite inflationary pressures across the global economy. Those worries were reinforced by data released Tuesday showing consumer price growth in the euro area accelerated to 2.5% in March, up from 1.9% in February and above the medium-term 2% target set by the European Central Bank.

Gasoline prices in the United States also climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, delivering a blow to consumers despite hopes that the country’s status as a net energy exporter would shield it from rising prices.

Similar inflationary pressures are emerging in other economies, fueling expectations that many central banks could consider raising interest rates in the coming months. That outlook has pushed government bond yields higher and weighed on equities.

Consumer confidence rises, but labor data weakens

The key consumer confidence index from The Conference Board rose slightly in March to 91.8, beating expectations.

However, amid the oil crisis, respondents’ average one-year inflation expectations jumped in March to their highest levels since August 2025.

Meanwhile, the latest JOLTS report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 6.882 million job openings in February, slightly below January’s revised figure of 7.240 million and marginally under market expectations of 6.918 million.

The hiring rate also slipped to 3.1% in February, its lowest level since April 2020.

Goldman Sachs: China Better Positioned Than U.S. for Energy Crisis

Posted on March 31, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Goldman Sachs estimates that the global oil shock could shave about 0.3%–0.4% off worldwide economic growth while also putting upward pressure on prices.

Crude Oil Rebounds as Traders React to Escalating Regional Tensions

The recent surge in oil prices is creating clear divergences among the world’s major economies. In this context, strategists at Goldman Sachs say China appears better positioned than the United States to absorb the impact of an energy shock.

The starting point is the sharp rise in crude prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil has already climbed above key levels near $100 per barrel, with direct consequences for global inflation and economic growth.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the shock could trim global growth by roughly 0.3%–0.4% while simultaneously pushing prices higher.

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China’s relative resilience

However, the impact is not uniform. China appears to have greater resilience to rising energy costs, while the United States looks more exposed to the consequences.

One key reason is economic structure. China’s economy maintains stronger state control and more active policy tools to cushion external shocks.

The country also has several mechanisms at its disposal, including strategic reserves, price interventions, and targeted fiscal stimulus. These tools allow authorities to soften the impact of higher oil prices on consumers and businesses, limiting the direct pass-through to inflation and consumption.

The U.S. challenge

By contrast, the U.S. economy relies more heavily on domestic consumption, making it more sensitive to higher energy prices.

According to the bank’s estimates, the oil shock could reduce U.S. employment by around 10,000 jobs per month, reflecting a gradual cooling in economic activity.

Inflation dynamics are another key factor. In the United States, higher oil prices tend to pass through quickly to consumer prices, eroding purchasing power.

China, on the other hand, maintains relatively contained inflation, partly because of its lower dependence on private consumption and the greater weight of the industrial sector.

External positioning also plays a role. While many emerging economies suffer deterioration in their external balances when oil prices rise, China can mitigate these effects thanks to its scale, diversified production base, and tighter financial controls.

Financial markets add another layer. Chinese markets have shown relatively greater stability amid recent global volatility, suggesting investors see the country as a relative haven within the emerging-market universe under current conditions.

Still, Goldman Sachs cautioned that China would not be immune. A prolonged oil shock could also weigh on its economy, particularly if the energy crisis deepens or persists over time.

Gold Heads for Worst Monthly Performance in 17 Years

Posted on March 31, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The precious metal is posting gains during the session, supported by tensions between the United States and Iran, although it remains on track for a sharp monthly decline.

Gold rebounded on Tuesday but is still heading for its worst monthly performance in more than 17 years. The metal has fallen more than 13% in March, pressured by higher energy costs and a shift in expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Still, gold moved higher in early trading, supported by hopes of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Market movements come as the U.S. dollar weakens slightly, making commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies. This has been compounded by a modest pickup in risk appetite following signals from Washington pointing to a possible easing of tensions with Iran. Reports suggest the U.S. government could scale back its military campaign even if tensions persist in strategic areas such as the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, markets are reassessing their outlook, with traders now largely ruling out interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, as rising energy prices risk reigniting inflation. This shift has weighed on gold, which typically benefits from a low-rate environment.

Despite the monthly drop, gold remains up roughly 5% on a quarterly basis, and some banks continue to hold a constructive medium-term outlook.

Key metals prices

Gold is trading at $4,561.68 per ounce, up 1.1% on the day, while silver is outperforming, rising 2.9% to $72.04.

Platinum is trading at $1,911.15 per ounce, up 0.6%, while palladium is also higher, gaining 2% to $1,434.23.

Middle East War Slows Global Economic Growth, IMF Warns

Posted on March 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to an analysis by several economists at the institution, the consequences of the conflict could escalate to concerning levels.

The war in the Middle East has caused major global disruptions and is clouding the outlook for many economies that had only recently begun to recover from previous crises, the International Monetary Fund warned.

The IMF said the conflict triggered by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28 is generating a global — though uneven — shock and leading to tighter financial conditions.

“While the war could affect the global economy in different ways, all paths lead to higher prices and slower growth,” the institution’s economists wrote in a blog post.

The IMF will release a more comprehensive assessment in its upcoming World Economic Outlook, scheduled for April 14 during the Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington.

How the war could impact the global economy

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and damage to regional infrastructure have caused what the International Energy Agency described as the largest disruption ever to the global oil market.

Much will depend on how long the war lasts, how far it spreads, and the extent of the damage to infrastructure and supply chains.

The IMF warned that low-income countries face a particularly high risk of food insecurity due to rising food and fertilizer prices, and may require greater external support at a time when many advanced economies are scaling back international aid.

If high energy and food prices persist, global inflation could accelerate. The authors noted that historically, sustained spikes in oil prices have tended to push inflation higher while slowing economic growth.

The war could also fuel expectations that inflation will remain elevated for longer, potentially translating into higher wages and prices. That dynamic would make it more difficult to contain inflation without a sharper economic slowdown.

Oil Holds Above $100 as Wall Street Struggles to Rebound

Posted on March 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The intensifying war in the Middle East continues to keep global markets on edge, although Wall Street started the week in positive territory.

U.S. stocks erased much of their early gains on Monday, March 30, and ended the session mixed as oil prices continued to climb. Investors are weighing the ongoing fighting in the Middle East, which has now entered its second month with no clear path toward a resolution.

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 45,216.66 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,343.75 points, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.7% to 20,794.64 points.

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No light at the end of the tunnel

Major Wall Street indexes had already fallen late last week, even after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed until April 6 the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. attacks on its electrical infrastructure.

“Markets remain extremely nervous about the situation in the Middle East, and the prevailing view is that the conflict is likely to intensify,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

The sharp surge in oil prices since the start of the conflict in late February has fueled concerns about renewed inflationary pressures worldwide, which could prompt central banks to raise interest rates. In that context, government bond yields — including U.S. Treasurys — have risen, weighing on equity markets.

Traders are no longer pricing in any interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, a sharp shift from pre-war expectations that had pointed to two rate reductions in 2026.

Key data releases later this week, including employment figures and business activity indicators, are expected to provide clearer signals about the state of the world’s largest economy.

Trump threatens Iran’s energy infrastructure

Trump suggested that direct negotiations with Iran were continuing and that a deal with Tehran could be near. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, he said talks were going “extremely well” and hinted that an agreement could soon be reached, while also boasting of a “regime change” in Tehran following U.S. strikes that killed several senior Iranian officials last month.

“I see a deal with Iran — it could happen soon,” he said, without providing a specific timeline.

Iran, however, firmly denied that direct talks with Washington have taken place since the start of the war and demanded a halt to hostilities before any negotiations could begin.

Later, the U.S. president wrote on his Truth Social platform that while the United States had made significant progress, if an agreement is not reached soon and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened to trade, Washington could target Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island.

Employment data in focus

Energy prices remain one of the most visible economic consequences of the war. U.S. crude oil prices have surged more than 70% so far this year to above $100 per barrel, pushing average gasoline prices to around $4 per gallon.

Rising inflation fears have driven benchmark U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels since last summer, a development that could weigh on stock valuations.

Meanwhile, the March nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday tops the week’s economic calendar. Economists expect 55,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. Retail sales and manufacturing and services activity data will also be released that day.

Notable stocks on Wall Street

Shares of Vale S.A. rose 0.5% after the company said in an interview with Bloomberg that it plans to expand its business in India by increasing shipments and exploring iron ore trading opportunities in the country.

Compass Diversified surged 14.9% after announcing a definitive agreement to sell the foodservice business of its majority-owned subsidiary Sterno for $292.5 million. The buyer, Archer Foodservice Partners, will acquire the business at that enterprise value, subject to customary working capital adjustments.

Shares of YY Group Holding Ltd climbed 3.8% after the company said it would pause its at-the-market share offering program and cancel more than one million unissued shares.

On the downside, Avis Budget Group Inc. fell 8.6% after announcing a new share offering program. The car rental company signed a distribution agreement with ten sales agents — including Bank of America Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities and Morgan Stanley — to sell up to five million common shares.

Meanwhile, MakeMyTrip Limited edged up 0.2% despite a short-seller report from Morpheus Research alleging anti-competitive practices and accounting issues at the Indian online travel agency. The report claims the company continues to enforce hotel price-parity clauses despite a 2022 order from India’s competition authority to halt the practice.