Forex Signals April 30: USD GDP and Inflation on Top of MSFT and Meta Earnings

Today we have the US GDP and PCE inflation data, which will be followed by Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm and Robinhood earnings.

Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, April 30, 2025•3 min read

PCE inflation is expected to cool off in March

Quick overview

Today's U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data are anticipated, with earnings reports from major companies like Microsoft and Meta also on the agenda.
U.S. markets showed a month-end drift, with the dollar rising against the yen despite softer economic data and a dovish Fed outlook.
Australian inflation data exceeded expectations, suggesting potential for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates in the near future.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rebounded significantly after a dip, while Ripple (XRP) maintained a steady position above its 50-day moving average.

Today we have the US GDP and PCE inflation data, which will be followed by Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm and Robinhood earnings.

U.S. markets on Tuesday showed signs of a month-end drift, with the U.S. dollar ticking higher in what many observers described as a technical move rather than one driven by economic fundamentals. Despite a run of softer economic data and an increasingly dovish tone from Federal Reserve pricing, the greenback advanced modestly, most notably against the Japanese yen.

Investor sentiment received a slight boost from news about a reduction in vehicle tariffs, though specific details remain unclear and complex. The development nonetheless helped stock markets stay in positive territory for another session. However, not all corporate stories were upbeat—shares of Starbucks and Snap both fell sharply in after-hours trading after disappointing earnings reports.

White House officials framed the tariff shift as a response to input from automakers, signaling that policy remains responsive to industry concerns and that the broader direction for tariffs continues to point downward.

In commodities, oil came under renewed pressure, with WTI crude nearing the $60 mark. However, the Canadian dollar stood its ground in North American trading despite the general uptick in USD buying. This relative resilience was likely tied to domestic political developments, although they failed to produce major market moves. Meanwhile, former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney confirmed plans for an upcoming meeting with Donald Trump, hinting at what could be a tense future interaction.

Today’s Market Outlook: Major Earnings Reports to Watch

Today we will have more earnings from some big names such as Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Caterpillar (CAT), Robinhood (HOOD), Qualcomm (QCOM) etc which will keep stock traders on edge.

Australian Inflation Trends

Across the Pacific, Australian inflation data showed slightly hotter-than-expected figures. Headline CPI for Q1 2025 came in at 2.4% year-on-year, ahead of the anticipated 2.2%, though unchanged from the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, CPI rose 0.9%, above the forecast of 0.2%.

Core inflation measures were mixed. The trimmed mean rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 2.9% annually—matching expectations on a quarterly basis but showing a decline from the previous year’s 3.2%. The weighted median also showed a 0.7% quarterly gain and a 3.0% year-on-year rise, slightly above forecasts but down from the prior 3.4%.

Despite the mild upside surprise, the overall picture suggests inflation is moderating, giving the Reserve Bank of Australia potential room to lower interest rates again at its May meeting.

US GDP & Inflation Expectations

Attention now turns to key upcoming U.S. economic data. The first estimate of Q1 GDP is due later today, and expectations have been sharply revised downward. The consensus forecast calls for just 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth, a significant drop from 2.4% in the previous quarter. Some forecasts suggest annualized GDP growth could come in as low as 0.1%, reflecting a notable slowdown from recent quarters when consumer spending had underpinned stronger performance.

Markets are also watching U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data closely. This key inflation metric, monitored closely by the Fed, is projected to have risen just 0.1% in March—down from 0.4% in February—signaling cooling inflationary pressures that may support further dovish moves by the central bank.

Last week, markets were chaotic, with gold soaring $500 in the final three days, the EUR/USD surging 5 cents, and stock markets opening down before turning upward. The moves were big, and the volatility was enormous, so we opened 40 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 15 losing ones.

Gold Continues Range Bound Trading

Gold had a volatile fortnight. After breaking above $3,500 per ounce for the first time, the precious metal quickly plunged by $250. But sentiment flipped rapidly after dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and escalating global tensions. This reignited bullish momentum, lifting gold back above $3,300 and eventually pushing it to a new record high of $3,444—more than $500 above its recent low. Still, renewed optimism around trade talks temporarily weighed on gold, dragging it briefly below $3,300 again before buyers stepped in, sending it $100 higher in a matter of hours. Chart XAUUSD, D1, 2025.04.30 02:49 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – H4 Chart

GBP/USD Surges to the Highest Level Since 2022

The foreign exchange market also saw notable developments. GBP/USD broke through 1.34 for the first time since late 2022, although it failed to hold that level by the close. Resistance at 1.3440 remains the key level to watch, unchanged since September last year. Overall, the British pound outperformed major peers, including the euro, U.S. dollar, and commodity-linked currencies such as the CAD and AUD, ending April on a strong note. Chart GBPUSD, H4, 2025.04.30 02:49 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBP/USD – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Rebounds Off the 500 Weekly SMA

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin experienced another dramatic swing. After dipping below $75,000 and testing its 50-week moving average, it staged a powerful comeback, fueled by renewed enthusiasm for growth and tech, partly stoked by Trump’s campaign rhetoric. Bitcoin soared past $93,000 and is now consolidating just under $95,000, having cleared the crucial 100-day moving average.

BTC/USD – Weekly chart

XRP Climbs Above the 50 Daily SMA

Ripple (XRP) also held firm, bouncing off key support between $1.80 and $2.20. It now trades steadily at $2.20, above its 50-day moving average, with technical momentum suggesting more upside potential if broader altcoin sentiment remains positive.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.