Bitcoin Eyes Potential Rally to $140,000 on Weakening Macro Data and Institutional Inflows
Resilient among changing economic data and growing institutional interest, Bitcoin (BTC) holds strong above the $94,000 mark. Several
Quick overview
- Bitcoin remains resilient above $94,000, with analysts predicting potential new all-time highs in the coming months.
- Weak US labor data and increased speculative activity indicate a possible rally for Bitcoin, with significant inflows into institutional products like BlackRock's ETF.
- Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin could see substantial price increases if certain economic indicators align positively by mid-2025.
- Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing strong accumulation and market dynamics.
Resilient among changing economic data and growing institutional interest, Bitcoin BTC/USD holds strong above the $94,000 mark. Several convergent elements that might drive the top cryptocurrency to new all-time highs in the next months are under the eye of market analysts.
Weak US Labor Data and “Hot Supply” Signal Potential Rally
With job vacancies in March dropped to 7.2 million, below the 7.5 million projection and approaching their lowest levels in four years, the most recent US Labor Department JOLTS report released Thursday Historically, this slump together with declining consumer confidence hitting its lowest point since January 2021 precedes big Bitcoin swings.
In just five weeks, Bitcoin’s “hot supply,” coins exchanged during the preceding week, has almost doubled, according on-chain analytics company Glassnode, reaching over $40 billion. Since late March, this indicator—which acts as a proxy for speculative capital joining the market—has climbed $21.5 billion, signifying a quick change from dormancy to active speculation among more recent market players.
With important profitability measures like Percent Supply in Profit (86%) and NUPL (0.53) expanding considerably, Glassnode observed in its most recent report “signs of early FOMO are emerging.” Daily active addresses are still considerably repressed, though, which suggests network activity is still rebuilding toward full bull market conditions.
Institutional Flows Strengthen Bitcoin’s Position
On April 28, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF saw a noteworthy $970.9 million daily inflow, second only to its January 2024 debut. IBIT has accumulated approximately $4.5 billion in net inflows since April 22, bucking more general market patterns whereby rivals have seen withdrawals. Comprising a 51% share of the US spot Bitcoin ETF market, the ETF today has assets under management at over $54 billion.
Fidelity Digital Assets, using their Bitcoin Yardstick metric—which gauges BTC’s market cap split by its hashrate—reports that Bitcoin is headed toward “undervaluation.” This statistic stayed between -1 and 3 standard deviations in Q1 2025, cooling from the overheated values of Q4 2024 and implying Bitcoin is less expensive than its network security.
Historical Patterns Point to Substantial Upside
Research of past market cycles shows that when three particular factors line up—low leverage, stronger-than-expected retail sales, and hawkish Federal Reserve signals—Bitcoin often rallies noticeably. Over recent years, these factors set off 50% to 84% spikes in Bitcoin prices in three distinct 7-week periods.
Bitcoin rose from $40,000 to $73,500 early in 2024 in the most recent incident. Early 2023 saw comparable increases as Bitcoin jumped from $16,700 to $25,101 over seven weeks. A third example from July 2021 brought about a 76% price rise.
Based on past data trends, should US employment vacancies and consumer confidence rise from April 2025 as projected, Bitcoin’s price might start a new upswing by mid-July. Though further good macroeconomic data will be required to validate this estimate, industry analysts suggest this trend might set a minimum objective of $140,000 by October 2025.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Standard Chartered Predicts $120K in Q2, $200K by Year-End
Reflecting his prior forecast of $200,000 by the end of 2025, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick maintained his optimistic view in a new study, projecting Bitcoin to reach about $120,000 this quarter.
Kendrick mentioned the US Treasury term premium (which is closely linked to Bitcoin price) reaching a 12-year high, significant accumulation by whale investors, and time-of-day analysis implying American investors may be diversifying into non-US assets as other supporting points.
Kendrick said, “Bitcoin may be a better hedge than gold against financial system risks,” noting that current ETF flows point to a “safe-haven reallocation from gold into BTC.”
Short-Term Outlook: Fed Policy Crucial for Next Move
The immediate direction of pricing for Bitcoin could rely on forthcoming Federal Reserve announcements. After the central bank’s interest rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on June 18, so clarifying the path of monetary policy.
Two other important events are the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning August 21 and the Beige Book publication on July 16. Market players will also closely check US retail sales statistics for May (coming June 17) and June (released July 15) for indications of economic health that can help Bitcoin’s increasing momentum.
Maintaining support above $94,500 will help set the stage for the next leg up toward the expected new all-time highs since both on-chain indicators and macroeconomic conditions seem increasingly favorable for ongoing development in the cryptocurrency market.
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