EUR/USD Hovers Near $1.1400 as Traders Brace for U.S. Data and Trade Tensions

The EUR/USD pair is trading around $1.1390 as of April 29, 2025, with investors striking a cautious tone ahead of major U.S. economic releases. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has ticked up to around 99.14, buoyed by persistent trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Adding to market uncertainty, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that it’s now up to China to reopen trade talks, dampening hopes for a swift resolution. Conflicting statements from President Donald Trump and Chinese officials about ongoing communication have only deepened the market’s unease.

On top of the trade drama, traders are gearing up for a slew of crucial U.S. data releases:

• Preliminary Q1 GDP

• ISM PMI

• ADP Employment Change

• April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

• March PCE Price Index

These reports could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, making them must-watch events for anyone trading EUR/USD.

Technical Outlook: Symmetrical Triangle Signals Pending Breakout

Right now, EUR/USD is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a breakout could be on the horizon. Immediate levels to watch:

• Resistance: $1.1425, followed by $1.1478

• Support: $1.1377, with deeper support at $1.1329

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $1.1382 is offering an extra layer of support for now. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is flattening out around the zero line, a typical sign that the market is gearing up for a stronger directional move.

If EUR/USD can break cleanly above $1.1425, it could set the stage for a rally toward $1.1478 and potentially $1.1529. On the flip side, a break below $1.1377 would likely trigger a drop toward $1.1329.

Trade Setup

If you’re new to trading, here’s a simple approach based on the current setup:

• Bullish Scenario: Look for a confirmed close above $1.1430 with strong volume. Set a stop-loss just below $1.1370 to manage your risk.

• Bearish Scenario: A break below $1.1377 could open a short opportunity targeting $1.1329, with a stop-loss placed above $1.1425.

Patience is key in this environment. Waiting for a confirmed breakout or breakdown can help avoid getting caught in false moves. Also, keep a close eye on U.S. economic releases this week — they could be the catalyst for the next big swing in EUR/USD.