Bitcoin to $200K? Standard Chartered Drops Bold 2025 Forecast

Standard Chartered has delivered a striking new forecast: Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to $120,000 by the second quarter of 2025 and reach $200,000 by year-end. The projection, released Monday in a research note led by Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research, extends the bank’s bullish stance on the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

The analysis highlights deepening macroeconomic shifts that are fueling Bitcoin’s appeal—chiefly, a growing exodus from U.S. Treasuries amid fiscal concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.

Treasury Market Stress Amplifies Crypto Appeal

A key pillar of Kendrick’s thesis is the deteriorating confidence in U.S. government bonds. The Treasury term premium—reflecting the additional yield investors demand to hold longer-term debt—has surged to a 12-year high.

President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff rhetoric has only exacerbated global risk sentiment, pushing investors to seek alternatives outside traditional safe-haven assets.

Macro Drivers Shaping Bitcoin’s Rally:

• Treasury term premium at its highest since 2012

• Rising global diversification away from dollar-based assets

• Geopolitical instability boosting alternative asset demand

Whale Accumulation and ETF Flows Strengthen the Bull Case

Beyond macro trends, Standard Chartered points to two powerful crypto-native drivers:

• Whale activity: Investors holding more than 1,000 BTC are steadily increasing their positions, signaling strong long-term conviction.

• ETF rotation: Institutional flows are shifting from gold ETFs toward Bitcoin ETFs, reshaping portfolio allocation models.

“We expect these supportive factors to drive BTC to a fresh all-time high around $120,000 in Q2,” Kendrick’s report notes. “From there, continued momentum should take Bitcoin toward $200,000 by year-end.”

Snapshot of Supporting Factors:

• Accelerating whale accumulation underscores holding strength

• Bitcoin ETFs attracting inflows as gold’s allure wanes

• Rising distrust in sovereign debt propelling crypto adoption

Bottom Line:

With fiscal strains mounting and institutional money reshaping its allocation strategies, Bitcoin’s path to six figures appears increasingly viable. However, as always in crypto, volatility remains the only constant.