Bitcoin Stalls Below $95,000: Technical Analysis Shows Consolidation Phase Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding just under $95,000, up approximately 1.5% in the past 24 hours. However, the $100,000 level remains
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading just under $95,000, showing a 1.5% increase in the last 24 hours but struggling to break the $100,000 resistance level.
- On-chain data indicates a healthy market structure, with long-term holders supporting Bitcoin's floor price, suggesting a mature bull trend.
- Upcoming macroeconomic data releases could significantly impact Bitcoin's price direction, as traders adopt a cautious approach amid market volatility.
- Institutional adoption is advancing, with Arizona moving closer to establishing a Bitcoin reserve, reflecting broader efforts at the state and federal levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding just under $95,000, up approximately 1.5% in the past 24 hours. However, the $100,000 level remains elusive for now, despite registering a strong 10% weekly gain. Even as traders await fresh catalysts, on-chain data and technical indicators suggest a period of consolidation ahead for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin’s On-Chain Fundamentals Show “Healthy” Market Structure
Though price consolidation, on-chain data of Bitcoin show a good image of market condition. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. emphasized that, using the average price at which BTC was last moved, Bitcoin’s year-over-year realized price—which exceeds the yearly market value to realized value (MVRV) metric—has skyrocketed by 61.82%. The yearly market value dropped by 8.98%.
Based on natural development rather than speculative frenzy, this divergence implies long-term holders are boosting Bitcoin’s basic floor price faster than speculative price movements, hence producing what Adler terms as a “mature bull trend”.
Based on the negative MVRV ratio, Bitcoin is now trading below its basic value when compared to a year ago—a trend that has always preceded notable rallies. Value compresses allow room for significant upside potential; some analysts aim for new highs above $110,000 should demand quick acceleration.
Macroeconomic Headwinds: A Week of Critical Data
Several important macroeconomic releases coming next could affect the direction of Bitcoin’s pricing:
- April 29: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
- April 30: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data
- May 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI
- May 2: Jobs report
These analyses could greatly affect trader mood and shed light on how the US economy is managing current trade conflicts. The ISM Manufacturing PMI data is especially crucial as recent studies show company worries about the US-led tariff conflicts.
April’s market volatility means traders could take a cautious approach during this data-heavy week, therefore supporting Bitcoin’s trend of consolidation.
State-Level Bitcoin Adoption Advances
Institutional adoption of Bitcoin keeps making news as it gains consistency. Two measures voted yesterday by the Arizona House of Representatives might let the state create a Bitcoin reserve. With 31 legislators supporting Senate Bill 1025, this development gets Arizona closer than any other state in adopting a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
These state-level projects reflect a larger campaign by Republican legislators and former president Donald Trump, who in March signed an executive order suggesting a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and “Digital Asset Stockpile” at the federal level.
Investors are closely monitoring these institutional moves and forthcoming economic data as Bitcoin trades just around $95,000 to determine whether BTC will build the momentum required to eventually break above the $100,000 barrier.
Persistent $100K Resistance: The Ceiling Remains Intact
Since early February, Bitcoin has failed to break the psychological $100,000 barrier, leading to a months-long consolidation trend. Although the recent 30% recovery from April 7 lows of $74,400 to current levels near $95,000 is remarkable, overhead resistance still impedes more progress.
Originally decoupling from equities and rallying as a “hedge against political instability and uncertain monetary policy,” Bitcoin has shown a confusing identity crisis in recent weeks, noted trading firm QCP Capital in a recent market bulletin, only to pivot midweek and match US equities. This “flip-flowing between safe-haven and risk-asset behavior” has convoluted conventional correlation models.
With analysts speculating that Bitcoin would be limited to a narrow trading corridor between $90,000 and $94,500 in the short future, the market today seems to lack the spark required to move the bitcoin outside the present range.
BTC Futures Market Signals Potential “Long Squeeze”
With Bitcoin’s financing rate turning positive, long holdings are clearly dominant as traders gamble on price rises beyond $90,000. This posture, however, sets the stage for a “long squeeze”—a market event in which an abrupt price drop drives over-leveraged traders to sell their positions, hence magnifying the fall.
Technical study reveals waning optimistic momentum as Bitcoin tries to keep above $95,000. With the relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart, the bitcoin has developed a bearish divergence suggesting a possible retest of the fair value gap between $90,500 and $88,750.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025: Wall Street Strategists Remain Bullish
Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset analysis, Geoffrey Kendrick, keeps a positive view despite near-term obstacles with a Bitcoin price target of $110,000 +/- by Q2 2025. According to Kendrick’s study, Bitcoin’s next step up is mostly driven by strategic reallocation away from US assets under trade conflicts.
The timing fits the previous market cycles of Bitcoin; present data reflects past accumulation stages. Based on on-chain data, the average 180-day point where momentum has historically surged just five to six weeks away.
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