Bitcoin 40% Undervalued: $3B Institutional Surge Hints at $100K Breakout
Bitcoin trades 40% below value as institutions withdraw 36,000 BTC. Can a $3B ETF surge push Bitcoin past $100K?
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently priced at $94,225, which is 40% below its intrinsic value, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
- Institutional interest is rising, with significant outflows from exchanges like Coinbase and Binance, suggesting long-term accumulation.
- Recent ETF inflows of $3 billion and reduced miner selling post-halving are creating a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's price.
- Technical analysis shows key resistance and support levels, with potential for Bitcoin to rise above $100,000 if momentum continues.
Bitcoin is at $94,225, 40% below its intrinsic value according to Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments. After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s energy value (based on mining costs and network energy consumption) was estimated to be $130,000.
Yet spot prices are discounted and that’s a buying opportunity.
Institutional accumulation is also showing up in the exchange data. Coinbase had 8,756 BTC (around $830 million) outflow on April 24, Binance had 27,750 BTC withdrawal – the 3rd largest in its history.
Key takeaways:
- Coinbase outflows often means ETF related activity.
- Binance withdrawals means less near term selling.
But analysts warn that heavy outflows don’t guarantee immediate price moves – 2021 China ban crash is a good example.
ETFs Lead $3B Buying Spree, Bullish Outlook Confirmed
ETFs are pouring fuel on the fire. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas said institutions put in $3B into Bitcoin ETFs in just a few days. Add to that reduced miner selling after the halving and this is a big setup for price to go up into May.
Institutional dynamics to watch:
- ETF inflows – more liquidity and price floors.
- Exchange withdrawals – long term accumulation.
- Supply constraints – halving effects start to tighten Bitcoin’s supply.
With liquidity increasing and miner pressure easing, the risk reward is getting more and more positive even with short term volatility.
Bitcoin Price Action: Trendline Bounce Could Send Bitcoin Higher
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is at $94,250 after bouncing off $93,920 – the perfect level on the 1 hour chart. The 50 hour SMA at $94,498 is the immediate level to watch.
If Bitcoin breaks $94,930 with volume, $95,830 is next. Otherwise a failure to clear $94,930 could see a retest of $93,920 or lower to $93,070.
Key levels:
- Pivot Support $93,920 (trendline)
- Immediate Resistance $94,930
- Next Upside Target $95,830
- Stop-Loss for New Entries: $93,920
MACD is neutral, RSI is 48 so there’s room to move up if buying volume comes in. This is a trendline bounce setup – be patient as fakeouts are common without confirmation.
If momentum holds, historical fractals suggest Bitcoin could go up 7-10% and break above $100,000 – a level many are waiting for.
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