Silver Price Eyes $35 as Geopolitical Risk and Fed Pause Fuel Demand

Silver (XAG/USD) is up for its third week in a row as geopolitical uncertainty and dovish central banks spark new interest. US President Donald Trump says trade talks with China are ongoing but Beijing says no formal talks are happening. A Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson said: the US must lift unilateral tariffs to make progress.

This standoff is reigniting interest in safe-haven assets like silver as inflation cools and yields fall. Meanwhile the Fed is playing waiting game. Policymakers are in no rush to hike rates, instead will monitor the impact of Trump’s tariff strategy on inflation and employment.

Markets are pricing in 84 bps of rate cuts by end 2025 – a bullish backdrop for non-yielding assets like silver which thrive in low rate environment.

Macro Takeaways:

• YTD Silver Gain: +13.5%

• Trump Tariffs: Talks in dispute

• Expected Fed Cuts: 84 bps by year-end

Silver Technical Setup Remains Bullish

Technically silver is strong. XAG/USD is at $33.42, above the 50 period EMA at $32.75 and respecting the rising channel since early April.

Silver found buyers at $33.15 this week which is the mid-channel support. MACD is still positive but flattening – often a sign of consolidation before a move.

For new traders this is a textbook “buy-the-dip” or breakout trade. If silver breaks above $34.06 it could go to $34.53 or even $35.08.

Trade Setup:

• Buy Entry 1: Bounce from $33.15

• Buy Entry 2: Breakout above $34.06 with volume

• Target 1: $34.53

• Target 2: $35.08

• Stop Loss: Below $32.75

What to Watch This Week

This week silver’s momentum will be driven by two things: fresh headlines on US-China trade talks and Fed officials’ comments.Gold is getting all the attention – up $700 YTD to $3,500 – but silver often follows and offers leverage to the same macro trends. Emerging markets’ reserve diversification is also a long term positive for silver.

Let the price do the talking. A break above $34.06 could be the green light.