JSE Up 0.45%—Shares Rally as Capitec Delivers, Rand Firms

The FTSE All-Share Index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange rose 0.45% to 90,317.59 as investor sentiment improved, helped by a stronger South African rand and Capitec Bank’s great results. The rand gained 0.4% to 18.5250 against the US dollar ahead of March inflation data which is expected to dip slightly from 3.2% to 2.9%.

Capitec Bank, one of South Africa’s biggest retail banks, reported a 30% jump in headline earnings to R13.7 billion ($738 million) for the year to February 28.

This was up from R10.6 billion ($575 million) the previous year. Its growing customer base and strong net interest income was the driver of the performance, going against the broader economic trend. The bank declared a final dividend of R44.25 per share, boosting investor confidence in tough times.

JSE Ltd. to Breakout at ZAR 127.24—Technical Setup in Play

JSE Ltd. (JSE: JSE) is trading at ZAR 125.78, higher in a rising trendline and above the 50-period EMA at ZAR 123.81. Price is consolidating just below a key resistance at ZAR 127.24 which rejected the bulls earlier this month.

MACD is showing early signs of bullish momentum resuming. For traders this is a classic breakout setup:

• Entry 1: Buy above ZAR 127.24 on strong volume

• Entry 2: Dip-buy near ZAR 123.96 if support holds

• Targets: ZAR 129.20 and ZAR 130.82

• Stop Loss: Below ZAR 122.56

Be patient. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering, especially as price approaches a technical inflection point.

Growth Headwinds and Infrastructure Risks Remain

Despite the good news, South Africa’s overall outlook is still fragile. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded the country’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% due to global trade risks and sluggish domestic productivity. Per capita income is still declining as population growth outpaces economic growth.

Johannesburg, the economic hub, is experiencing infrastructure failures—power outages, broken water systems and a dispute with Eskom over unpaid bills are eroding business confidence. Fixing the system will require billions but that’s not happening due to fiscal constraints.

Points:

• Market Up: FTSE All-Share Index up 0.45% to 90,317.59

• Rand Strong: ZAR up 0.4% to 18.5250/USD on inflation hopes

• Capitec Up: 30% earnings growth boosts bank stocks

• JSE Ltd. Setup: Near breakout at ZAR 127.24 with targets at 129.20/130.82

• Risks Remain: IMF cuts GDP forecast to 1.0%; infrastructure crisis deepens

Short-term market is okay but long-term investors should be cautious. Structural and policy issues will continue to cap South African equities.