Gold Price Prediction: JPM Eyes $4K on Trade Turmoil

Spot gold hit $3,500 for the first time this week—up 29% year-to-date and 28th record high in 2025. JPMorgan’s call mirrors a new upgrade from Goldman Sachs who raised their year-end gold target to $3,700 from $3,300. In more extreme scenarios, Goldman sees prices at $4,500/oz.

Why Gold’s Rally Has Legs

According to JPMorgan, it’s not just investor fear. Central banks—especially from emerging markets—are buying gold to diversify away from the dollar as geopolitical uncertainty rises. US-China tariff escalations, inflation stickiness and monetary policy uncertainty are all adding to gold’s appeal as a portfolio hedge.

And while equities are volatile and bond yields are grinding lower, gold is one of the few assets with upside momentum.

But There Are Risks

Despite the optimism, JPMorgan also flagged the risks. The biggest? A sudden drop in central bank buying. If central banks slow their buying, gold loses one of its key pillars of support.

Another wild card: if the US economy proves more resilient than expected—even with the tariff drag—the Fed could delay cuts or even raise rates again. In that case, real yields would rise and gold would lose its luster.

Bearish Triggers to Watch:

• Central bank demand softening

• A strong US economy

• Fed hawkishness returns

Gold Technical Setup: Buy-the-Dip May Still Work

After peaking at $3,486, gold has pulled back slightly and is now at $3,362. It broke below $3,432 and out of its rising channel. But the 50-period EMA at $3,295 is still support.

For traders, this sets up a buy-the-dip opportunity—especially if $3,295-$3,322 holds.

Trade Plan (Short-Term):

• Buy: On bounce from $3,322-$3,295

• Targets: $3,432, then $3,486

• Stop: Below $3,285

Bottom Line: Gold Is Winning the Risk Game

Whether it’s a hedge against geopolitical risk or central bank buying, gold is winning in 2025. If support holds and macro uncertainty continues, $4,000 may not be that far away.

Don’t count gold out yet.