Oracle Stock Under Pressure: Can ORLC Hold $120 or Is Another Breakdown Ahead?
Oracle stock continues to struggle amid earnings disappointment, trade war tensions, and failed technical rebounds.
Quick overview
- Oracle stock is experiencing a persistent downtrend following a disappointing earnings report and trade war tensions.
- A temporary rebound occurred after positive news regarding trade tariffs and a significant investment in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
- Recent macroeconomic developments, including China's retaliatory tariffs, have led to renewed selling pressure on Oracle shares.
- Despite these challenges, Oracle's strong cash position and increased dividend may appeal to long-term investors.
Oracle stock continues to struggle amid earnings disappointment, trade war tensions, and failed technical rebounds. Will the $120 support zone hold, or is more downside in store?
Oracle Faces Persistent Downtrend After Failed Breakout
Oracle Corp. (ORCL) has been in a sustained downtrend since mid-January after buyers failed to reclaim the December 2024 all-time high of $198.31. That rejection sparked a nearly 40% selloff, accelerated by a disappointing Q3 earnings report in March that shook investor confidence.
Initially, the stock attempted to stabilize around key moving averages on the weekly chart, but downward pressure intensified, pushing the price down to a recent low of $119.
A Temporary Rebound Fueled by Policy Optimism
A short-lived recovery took place two weeks ago as sentiment improved following President Donald Trump’s suspension of trade tariffs. At the same time, Oracle announced a major $5 billion investment to expand its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) footprint in the UK. This strategic push supports the British government’s AI and digital transformation initiatives.
The news helped boost shares, as the 100-week SMA (red) turned into temporary support. However, momentum was capped by resistance at the 100-week SMA (green), halting the rebound just as quickly as it began.
Renewed Selling on China Tariffs, Semiconductor Export Tensions
Last week, fresh macroeconomic headwinds emerged after China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods, and both nations ramped up semiconductor export restrictions. These developments sparked broad-based risk aversion in equity markets. Oracle opened last week stronger but ultimately slipped, closing at $128.56.
This week started on a sour note, with ORCL gapping down to $127.19 and falling further to close at $122.78—down 4.5% on the session. Only Nvidia (NVDA) posted a steeper decline. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC) saw continued weakness in after-hours trading, suggesting more selling pressure ahead when U.S. markets reopen.
Oracle’s Dividend Stability Offers Long-Term Appeal
Despite the technical and macro pressure, Oracle remains fundamentally sound compared to peers. The company ended Q1 with $17.4 billion in cash and equivalents and surprised the market by increasing its dividend by 25% to $0.50 per share.
As of April 20, Oracle yields 1.55%—a steady dividend performer since 2009 and still considered a reliable option for income-focused investors in the tech space.
ORCL Technical Outlook: All Eyes on $120
Oracle’s current price action is hovering just above key weekly support near the $120 zone. If sellers breach this area, the next wave of downside could accelerate quickly. However, if this support holds, especially with a potential bounce in broader tech sentiment, a short-term recovery may still be possible.
We’ll will be watching closely in the sessions ahead—Oracle is at a technical crossroads.
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