EUR/USD Price Climbs—Fed Pause & Trade Fears Sink USD

The EUR/USD is quietly rising, above $1.1520 and testing resistance near $1.1550—its highest levels in months.

And this is happening despite the European Central Bank cutting rates for the 7th time this year. Instead of weighing on the euro, the ECB’s dovish stance is taking a backseat to bigger news out of the US.

Investors are more focused on the dollar’s weakness than the euro’s fundamentals. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said he needs more clarity before he’ll act again. And with President Trump’s tariffs getting more aggressive, confidence in the US growth outlook is slipping—and that’s driving demand for the euro.

Holiday Quiet, Big Moves

France, Germany and Italy are all on Easter Monday so market liquidity is very thin. These quiet conditions tend to exaggerate price moves and with the European TARGET system down for maintenance, even small flows are having a big impact.

But the euro’s strength isn’t just technical. While the ECB has warned about the risks of US tariffs to European exports, those concerns haven’t dented the upward momentum. Instead the euro is benefiting from a broad shift in sentiment away from the dollar.

The Week Ahead: Events to Watch

The euro’s next move may depend on how these events play out:

• ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks Tuesday and markets will be looking for a change in tone.

• US FOMC members will speak throughout the week and may give more guidance on the Fed’s near term plans.

• Flash PMI from both regions will give us updated readings on activity and inflation.

If these events support the current narrative the rally could go to $1.1605 and possibly $1.1655.

Trade Setup to Consider

• Buy Entry: On a pullback and confirmation near $1.1475

• Target Zones: $1.1605 (initial), $1.1655 (extended)

• Stop Loss: Below $1.1400 to limit downside risk

From a technical standpoint the momentum is with the euro. The MACD has turned up, the histogram bars are rising and price is above the 50 period EMA.

Wait for confirmation through volume and follow through. Especially with central banks speaking this week. If this plays out it’s a trend trade.