EUR/USD on the Move—Can It Hit 1.1475 Before ECB?

Traders are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting on April 17.

If delivered, that would take the deposit rate down to 2.25%, the 7th cut since June 2024. Clearly the ECB is getting worried about eurozone growth.

German economic sentiment reinforced that. The ZEW survey missed forecasts badly, -14.0 vs 10.6, and the eurozone number was even worse -18.5.

German industrial production surprised to the upside 1.1% but that was overshadowed by soft US import prices -0.1% and a cautious Fed which hinted at a slower pace of rate cuts.

Key Macro Releases: US Retail Sales and Eurozone CPI tomorrow

All eyes now on Wednesday’s US data with retail sales and industrial production in focus. Markets expect 1.3% retail sales and 0.4% core retail. Industrial production is expected to decline 0.2% due to slower demand and supply issues.

Eurozone final CPI for March is expected to be 2.2% headline and 2.4% core. A cooler print would strengthen the case for a more dovish ECB especially with the euro rising and energy prices stabilizing.

The ECB press conference on Thursday (12:45 GMT) could be the next big mover for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: 1.1475 Resistance

The euro has bounced off a key trendline and the 50 period EMA at 1.1271 and is now at 1.1355. This bounce is bullish and sets up a move to 1.1475. The RSI is at 56, not overbought.

Trade Setup: Trend Still in Play

If you want a clean entry this setup favors trend following but timing is everything.

• Entry: Buy above 1.1360 on breakout confirmation

• Target: 1.1475 → 1.1597

• Stop Loss: 1.1270

Pro Tip: Don’t front run the move. Wait for a strong close above 1.1360 with decent volume. That’s your buy signal.

Conclusion

The next 48 hours will be big for EUR/USD as central banks and data set the tone. If the ECB is dovish and US data is weak the euro could go up. But as always, it’s the follow through that matters not the headlines.