Gold Surges 28% to $3,245 Amid Trade War Turmoil and Rate Cut Bets

Gold is on fire—up 28% since November 2024 to an all-time high of $3,245 per ounce. What’s behind the surge? Escalating trade tensions between the US and China.

President Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese imports prompted a swift response from Beijing, which hit back with a 125% tariff on US goods. The tit-for-tat measures have spooked the markets and gold is once again the go-to asset.

As investors get nervous, traditional safe-havens like US Treasuries and the dollar are losing their luster. Gold is regaining its status as a store of value.

Central Banks and Investors Back the Rally

It’s not just geopolitics driving gold higher. Central banks around the world—especially in emerging markets—are adding to their gold reserves. That’s another big tailwind for the rally.

Retail and institutional investors are pouring into gold-backed ETFs to protect from inflation risks and slowing global growth.

Goldman Sachs has taken notice. They recently raised their year-end gold price forecast to $3,700 citing central bank demand and growing recession fears. In a deeper downturn, they say gold could go to $3,880 or higher.

Gold Technicals Look Good

From a charting perspective, gold’s momentum is intact. It’s above all the major moving averages and the RSI is elevated but not overbought at 62.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: $3,202

• Resistance: $3,256, $3,299, $3,343

• RSI: 62 – strong bullish momentum with room to run

Analysts say a clean break above $3,299 could take gold to $3,343 and beyond.

Bottom Line

Gold’s rally is not just about fear. It’s a combination of geopolitics, central bank buying and strong technicals driving the price higher and it doesn’t look like slowing down.Short term dips are always possible but the bigger picture still looks good for gold. We’ll see if $3,299 breaks—because if it does the next upleg may already be here.