Gold Hits Record High at $3,245 as Trade War and Recession Fears Fuel Safe-Haven Rush

Gold hit a new all-time high of $3,245 an ounce on Friday, its third day of gains as investors piled into safe-haven assets.

What’s the catalyst? Escalating trade tensions with China and growing unease about the global economy.

The rally was triggered by a series of big moves: China hit back with tariffs on US goods, and President Trump doubled down by hiking tariffs on Chinese imports. With trade war fears back in focus, investors turned to gold as a shield against uncertainty.

At the same time, the US dollar fell to a near three-year low, with the Dollar Index (DXY) at 99.01—another gold positive, as gold tends to move inverse to the dollar.

Mixed Economic Data Supports Rate Cuts

On the economic front, the data was mixed but leaning dovish. PPI fell to 2.7% year-over-year in March from 3.2% in February. But core PPI (ex food and energy) remained at 3.3%.

And consumer sentiment took a hit. The University of Michigan’s Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in April, with inflation expectations up to 6.7% over the next year. So while some price pressures are easing, households still feel the pinch of inflation.

Despite the mixed data, markets are pricing in at least three rate cuts in 2025. With the Fed on hold, traders are watching inflation and trade.

Bond Yields Up—but Gold Doesn’t Budge

In a normal market, rising yields would hurt gold. But not this week.

US 10-year Treasury yields rose 7 basis points to 4.495% and real yields (adjusted for inflation) to 2.307%. And gold didn’t flinch—proof that demand for safe assets is trumping traditional headwinds.

And to add fuel to the fire, recession fears are spreading. Big banks like Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are sounding the alarm this week, while Goldman Sachs raised its recession odds to 45%. Even JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said there’s a 50% chance of a US recession, making investors even more anxious.

Weekly Gold Technical Outlook: Bulls in Charge

Gold closed the week strong, breaking above the $3,168 resistance zone and now targeting $3,255 and $3,299 based on Fibonacci extensions.

After bouncing off the $3,000 psychological level and the 50-day EMA ($2,971) gold has been on a roll. The RSI is above 71, which is strong bullish but also overbought, which could lead to a short-term consolidation.

Key resistance levels: $3,255, $3,299, $3,346 Support zones: $3,168, then $3,087 and $3,038

Unless we see a pullback, gold should continue to move higher in the coming days. Stagflation fears, geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand are the themes that are driving the rally.

Conclusion

Gold’s move to $3,245 isn’t just about charts—it’s about fear. With rate cut bets rising, the dollar weakening and global tensions escalating, investors are seeking shelter. If this continues we may see even higher levels for gold in the weeks ahead.