Bitcoin Holds Above $80,000 Amid Halving Cycle Shift, ETF Outflows Continue: Analysts Eye $200K+ Potential
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding steady above the $80,000 mark, despite a 2.3% dip in its price over the past 24 hours. This period of relative stability comes even as shifting trader sentiment aligns with Bitcoin’s well-documented halving cycle, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows continues, and bullish long-term price predictions from prominent analysts contrast with current price action.
Whales Accumulate BTC as Retail Investors Retreat
Recent Glassnode data exposes notable accumulation behavior among the biggest Bitcoin BTC/USD investors. Usually defined as individuals owning Bitcoin for three to five years, long-term investors have raised their positions by around 363,000 BTC since mid-February. Two separate distribution waves early in the cycle guide this accumulation phase.
Likewise, Bitcoin “mega-whales” – addresses with more than 10,000 BTC – momentarily achieved a perfect accumulation score in early April, suggesting strong purchasing activity. This score has since dropped to roughly 0.65, but it still shows persistent accumulation by these big holders—who seem to be buying from smaller wallets with less than 100 BTC.
Usually, this difference in behavior between large and small holdings comes before times of a positive market. Two months before BTC jumped to $108,000, in August 2024, mega-whales recorded their last flawless accumulation score when Bitcoin traded close to $60,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Signal Caution Amid Economic Concerns
With net outflows of $772 million between March 28 and April 8, Bitcoin spot ETFs have encountered considerable selling pressure. These funds showed an additional $127 million in outflows even after most US import taxes were temporarily lowered on April 9.
This ongoing selling pressure most likely reflects more general economic issues, especially with relation to growing corporate credit risk and possible recessionary effects. Suggesting reduced market demand for risk assets, corporate bond spreads have suffered their biggest one-week widening since the regional banking crisis in March 2023.
The reaction of the market to favorable inflation statistics highlights even more this cautious attitude. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite losing 3% and 3.7% respectively, both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies failed to sustain a surge despite March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing inflation at 2.4% – its weakest annual rise in four years.
Crypto Market Sentiment: Fear Persists
Measuring market mood with CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index, it has stayed in the “fear” and “extreme fear” zones since February. Weakness in the stock market and worldwide trade conflicts have accentuated this gloomy attitude.
Sentiment usually cycles every three to five months, though, and indicates a possible return to “neutral” terrain within the following one to three months. Many more recent Bitcoin buyers seem to be holding rather than panic-selling, at least for now, as short-term holders’ selling activity stays at historically low levels despite market volatility.
Given the cyclical character of market psychology and the half cycle posture of Bitcoin, present fear levels could perhaps indicate an accumulation opportunity before mood changes positive once more. Investors should still exercise caution, though, since more price losses could cause short-term holders to become more active in sales.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Technically, Bitcoin is under challenge at its 21-day moving average right now. BTC must recover the $83,000-$85,000 zone, which caps prices in recent weeks, therefore enabling bulls to take charge.
Currently at $86,900, the 200-day moving average marks a crucial line separating optimistic from negative market conditions. Analyst Ali Martinez claims that a successful break above this level may put Bitcoin on a road toward $208,550, which corresponds to a Mayer Multiple of 2.4 – a figure usually connected with market tops.
Near term, $81,101 is a crucial support level with notable trading activity. Should Bitcoin fall short of this level, we could see a decline toward $69,500, which corresponds to a Mayer Multiple of 0.8, sometimes seen as an oversold state prior to bounces.
Bitcoin Price Predictions: Can BTC Cross $200,000?
Some business leaders hold quite optimistic views despite current market turbulence. Founder of Cardano and co-founder of Ethereum Charles Hoskinson has projected that by the end of this year or early 2025 Bitcoin might be valued at $250,000.
Hoskinson mentioned a number of elements bolstering this forecast, including expected stablecoin legislation, possible Federal Reserve interest rate decreases, and the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act now under progress in Congress. Rising geopolitical tensions could also draw attention to the shortcomings of conventional banking systems, hence promoting broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
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