US Treasury Turmoil Could Push Bitcoin to $90K—or Drag It Down to $70K
The US Treasury market is sending up red flags—and Bitcoin investors are paying close attention.
Over the past few days, yields on long-term US bonds have surged unexpectedly, with the 10-year Treasury hitting 4.5% and the 30-year yield climbing to 5%. That’s triggered a wave of volatility across global markets and reignited speculation about an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
So far, Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to stay afloat, rising 0.24% to trade around $76,481. But it’s still down nearly 4% from recent highs, and market watchers say the next move could be big—either up or down.
What’s Behind the Treasury Market Shock?
The yield spike is being blamed on several factors:
Geopolitical tensions, especially the US-China trade standoff, are rattling investor confidence.
A massive unwind of the basis trade, where hedge funds heavily short Treasuries, is triggering forced selling that’s pushing yields even higher.
The bond market’s unusual behavior—dropping prices despite rising risk—is raising alarm bells, since Treasuries typically gain during market turmoil.
This dislocation has turned attention to Bitcoin, long considered a hedge against traditional financial instability. In the past few hours, BTC has risen more than 2.5%, hinting at renewed safe-haven demand.
But the situation remains fragile.
Will the Fed Step In?
That’s the trillion-dollar question.
Just a week ago, markets were pricing in only a 10% chance of a Fed rate cut in May. Today? That probability has jumped to nearly 59%, according to CME FedWatch.
Why the sudden shift? The fear that inaction could spiral into something like the 1987 stock market crash—a swift, deep plunge fueled by policy missteps and margin sell-offs.
An emergency rate cut, on the other hand, could be a game-changer.
Bullish Outlook: Bitcoin to $90K and Beyond?
If the Fed slashes rates in the coming weeks, it could trigger a massive relief rally in both equities and crypto. Bitcoin would likely be one of the top beneficiaries, potentially retesting key resistance zones at $81,200, $84,150, and even $90,000.
Should BTC break above $90K and flip it into support, some analysts say the road to $100K may open up quicker than expected—especially if dovish Fed policy coincides with renewed risk appetite.
Bearish Outlook: Bitcoin Falls to $70K?
On the flip side, if the Fed stays on the sidelines, investors may interpret that as a sign that the central bank is behind the curve—again. That could send Bitcoin tumbling into the low-$70K range, possibly triggering broader sell-offs across crypto and equity markets.
In such a scenario, $70,000–$72,000 becomes the critical support zone to watch. A breakdown below this level would likely confirm continued bearish pressure.
Final Thoughts: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move Hinges on the Fed
Right now, Bitcoin is caught between two powerful forces: Treasury market chaos and central bank policy. If the Fed responds quickly with a rate cut, crypto could see a major breakout. If not, the risk of further downside looms.
Investors should watch:
Treasury yields, especially the 10-year and 30-year
Announcements (or silence) from the Fed
Bitcoin’s ability to hold above short-term support
Volatility is back—and for Bitcoin, that means opportunity, but also risk. Buckle up.
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