Bitcoin Price Prediction as Chinese Promises Steep Tariffs

The value of Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 3.14% over the last day, and it is being heavily impacted by news that China will hit the United States with retaliatory tariffs.

Chinese tariffs are driving Bitcoin prices down.
The U.S. economic outlook is bleak—but just how bad is it going to get? In the three trading days since President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariff regime, the S&P 500 fell 11 percent and J.P. Morgan put the odds of a U.S. and global recession at 60 percent, while Goldman Sachs raised its odds to 45 percent this week. (The only reason the numbers aren’t higher is these banks aren’t sure whether to believe Trump—if he really follows through on his 185-front trade war, they argue, the chance of a recession will become significantly higher.)
What can Americans do now if a recession is truly around the corner? Build up a buffer.
Of course, the best advice is personal. How to prepare for a recession depends on how well you were doing before Liberation Day. If you’re on the younger side and doing all right financially, avert your eyes and try not to freak out. Your 401(k)? “Don’t even look,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told me. “If you’re able to save, save.” Recessions come with a higher chance of losing your job or getting your pay or hours cut.
[Read: Trump is willing to take the pain]
“Cut back spending as much as you can, cut back on luxuries, and try and see out the craziness,” the economist David Blanchflower told me. If you have low savings, such that you couldn’t “deal with a $1,000 exigency,” Blanchflower added, you might want to “put off necessities.” This might include home or car maintenance, or a nonurgent dentist appointment.
The older you are, and the more likely you are to get laid off, the more important it is to have liquid savings. (Of course, people don’t always see job loss coming, even in economically uncertain times.) “Having access to that cash—to that capital—can be really, really helpful,” Cory Stahle, an economist at the job-posting site Indeed, told me. Savings you can actually use, he explained, are better in tough times.
Now down to $77,402 (BTC/USD), Bitcoin is up from its recent low of $74,627. It appears that Bitcoin whales were triggered by the descent to $74K and decided that was the time to buy the dip. It is definitely worth noting that this marked the lowest Bitcoin has dropped since early November of 2024.

On-chain data revealed that large transactions drove the surge back up to $77K, with purchases of over $1 million spiking in the last few days. This means that the whales are active and looking to buy up Bitcoin while it is still priced very low.

Tariff Fears Push Bitcoin Lower

Bitcoin is going to have a tough time trying to climb back up to $90K and certainly to $100K in the near future. There is simply too much investor fear surrounding recent tariff announcements by the United States and Chinese government. As U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed his new tariffs last week, specifically targeting the European Union, China, Japan, and Taiwan, China has announced that they will issue strong tariffs of their own.

This hurts the stock market and the cryptocurrency markets since investors are less likely to trade in either of these when the economy is in danger. There is fear that a recession is on the horizon, especially since the newly announced tariffs were higher than expected. The jobs market and the cost of consumer goods are both pointing toward economic decline, which means that investors will be tightening their belts and avoiding risky purchases like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

New Bitcoin Price Prediction

Analysts have to adjust their forecasts for where Bitcoin is headed after this latest development. There are tariff concerns to worry about, but these may start to die down well before the end of the year. There are very active whales buying up Bitcoin and driving up the price, but Bitcoin is way below its 2024 highs right now and has a lot of ground to make up to hit a new record high.

Conservative estimates say that Bitcoin will finish the year off elevated compared to its current position. We could see a climb to around $120K by the end of the year, but higher than that is unlikely. For Bitcoin to surpass that mark, something drastic would have to happen that would spur Bitcoin onto extreme growth.

We saw that last year with the U.S. elections, and the market does not have a repeat of that event to fall back on. What would help is if Trump decided to rework the cryptocurrency legislative framework to give more freedom to investors and crypto coin exchanges. If that happens well before the end of the year, we could see a much higher support level for Bitcoin that pushes it past the $120 mark.  

 

 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Timothy St. John
Financial Writer - European & US Desks
Timothy St John is a seasoned financial analyst and writer, catering to the dynamic landscapes of the US and European markets. Boasting over a decade of extensive freelance writing experience, he has made significant contributions to reputable platforms such as Yahoo!Finance, business.com: Expert Business Advice, Tips, and Resources - Business.com, and numerous others. Timothy's expertise lies in in-depth research and comprehensive coverage of stock and cryptocurrency movements, coupled with a keen understanding of the economic factors influencing currency dynamics. Timothy majored in English at East Tennessee State University, and you can find him on LinkedIn.
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