$439B Trade Clash: Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Surge as China Eyes Yuan Devaluation
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is sounding the alarm—and the opportunity. In a recent post, he pointed to rising pressure on China’s...
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is sounding the alarm—and the opportunity. In a recent post, he pointed to rising pressure on China’s currency and suggested that Bitcoin could be the big winner if capital flight from China accelerates.
Hayes draws parallels to 2013 and 2015, two periods when the yuan weakened significantly and Chinese investors piled into Bitcoin. Now, with the offshore yuan (USDCNH) trading near five-year highs, the setup looks familiar. The implication? Beijing may consider devaluing the yuan again to support exports in the face of mounting trade headwinds.
If that happens, Hayes believes wealthy Chinese citizens and institutions could turn to Bitcoin—not just as a hedge against inflation, but against currency devaluation in a system where capital controls make it hard to move money freely.
Key Takeaways:
USDCNH is nearing five-year highs, signaling yuan pressure.
Bitcoin jumped 4.54%, currently trading at $80,336.
Hayes sees historical similarities with capital flight patterns in 2013 and 2015.
$439 Billion Trade War: U.S. Ratchets Up the Pressure
The macro backdrop? It’s heating up fast.
The Biden administration just hit Chinese imports with a massive new round of tariffs—50% increases on key categories, pushing total duties as high as 104% in some cases. With $439 billion worth of Chinese goods flowing into the U.S. annually, these new measures could reshape global trade dynamics.
Washington has issued an ultimatum: roll back the 34% retaliatory tariff on American goods by April 8, or face more sweeping economic penalties. Beijing has made it clear—it won’t back down, vowing to “fight until the end.”
This escalated standoff has jolted global markets, sending investors scrambling for assets not tied to sovereign policy—like Bitcoin.
Trade War Snapshot:
U.S. imports from China: $439B/year
New U.S. tariffs: Up to 104% on some goods
China responds: “We won’t surrender”
BTC Eyes $85,000 as Wedge Breakout Builds Momentum
Bitcoin appears to be responding in real time.
After briefly dipping to $74,400, BTC has roared back, gaining over 4.5% in a single day. Price action shows a clean breakout from a falling wedge pattern, and traders are watching $85,000 as the next critical resistance.
According to crypto strategist Rekt Capital, the $70K–$80K range may mark the bottom of this corrective phase. Technical indicators support the case: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is climbing, and daily trading volume has spiked 85%, now sitting above $86 billion.
BTC Market Snapshot:
Current Price: $80,336
24h Volume: $86B+ (up 85%)
Next resistance: $85K
RSI: Climbing, signaling renewed bullish momentum
Bottom Line
Between escalating tariffs, potential currency devaluation, and rising market stress, Bitcoin is starting to shine again as a global hedge. If Hayes is right and capital begins flowing out of China in search of non-sovereign stores of value, BTC could be in for a major rally.
The $85,000 level is now in focus. But with global uncertainty rising, the real question might be: is this just the beginning?
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