Gold remains on a strong bullish trajectory despite ongoing economic uncertainty. After briefly dipping below $3,000, buyers stepped in to reaffirm support around the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The announcement of trade tariffs reignited demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, pushing XAU/USD above $3,150 yesterday. Given current market conditions, the once-distant $4,000 target now seems increasingly attainable.
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Forex Signals Brief April 3: Will Nasdaq and Tech Stocks Rebound After the Gap Lower?
Skerdian Meta•Thursday, April 3, 2025•3 min read
Today stock markets will open with a considerable bearish gap after the tariffs, so we’ll see how they will react after the US session starts, whether Nasdaq and other markets recuperate or extend the losses.
When the White House announced new tariffs late last night, markets were on edge, closely monitoring for any leaks or insights. Surprisingly, the UK’s Sky News provided one of the earliest indications, reporting that tariffs would be structured into bands of 10%, 15%, and 20%, applied across both industries and countries.
The economic data provided little clarity, as manufacturing figures declined while prices paid rose. The JOLTS job openings report also showed a slight decrease, adding to the uncertainty. Later in the day, market sentiment improved after reports suggested the White House was still evaluating global reactions before making a final decision, with a 20% tariff being the least likely scenario.
Despite an initially strong session, US stock markets reversed course after hours. The S&P 500 dropped 3.5%, while Nasdaq futures fell 4.1%, driven by concerns over the broader impact of the tariffs, which extend beyond automobiles and parts.
A major surprise was the inclusion of a 25% tariff on all computer imports, including desktops and laptops—an industry worth $138.5 billion in 2024, with no prior speculation about such measures. Additionally, tariffs were applied to lithium-ion batteries, tires, engines, transmissions, and lower-grade auto components. After an initial decline, markets stabilized somewhat as investors digested the details.
Today’s Forex Events
Today it will be about tariffs again, the details, the retaliation, the back and forth talk etc, which will keep markets on edge. Meanwhile, economic reports from Switzerland showed CPI rising to 0.5% year-over-year from 0.3% previously. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) had recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points while adjusting inflation forecasts, lowering them for this year but raising projections for 2026. Market expectations suggest the SNB may have ended its easing cycle, with only 7 basis points of further cuts priced in for the rest of the year.
In the US, weekly jobless claims remain a key indicator of labor market conditions. Initial claims have stayed within the 200K–260K range since 2022, with this week’s estimate at 225K, slightly up from 224K last week. Continuing claims are projected to reach 1.862 million, a minor increase from 1.856 million.
Additionally, the ISM Services PMI is forecasted at 53.0, down from the previous 53.5 reading. The S&P Global survey showed a strong rebound in the services sector in March, rising to 54.3 from 50.8 in February, though analysts cautioned that part of this recovery could be attributed to businesses bouncing back from weather-related slowdowns in early 2024.
The U.S. stock market and the dollar experienced reversals throughout the session, with extreme volatility dominating trading activity. As a result, we executed 37 trading signals this week, with 25 wins and 12 losses, navigating the unpredictable market swings.
Gold Makes Another Record high After Tariffs
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
MAs Keeping the Price Subdued
The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to struggle against the US dollar (USD), having dropped nearly 8 cents in Q4 2024. The bearish trend persisted into early February, momentarily driving AUD/USD below 0.61 before a short-lived rebound pushed it above 0.64. However, gains were limited as the 20-week SMA provided strong resistance, leading to another decline. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates steady at 4.10%, maintaining its restrictive policy stance. AUD/USD tested the 100 SMA (green) again, but failed and yesterday it resumed the decline after the tariff announcement.
AUD/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Fails at MAs
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp midweek rally of $5,000 following the Federal Reserve’s more dovish signals. However, technical resistance at the 20-day SMA halted the advance, triggering renewed selling pressure. A failure to hold above the 200-day SMA lead to a bearish reversal yesterday, as risk sentiment soured, and further declines should be expected in the near term.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Tests $2 Again
In the altcoin space, Ripple (XRP) briefly surged to $2.98 in early March after President Trump mentioned cryptocurrencies in discussions about the National Crypto Reserve. However, enthusiasm quickly faded when it became clear that XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) were not included in the reserve. A heavy selloff drove XRP below $2 before it found support at $1.90, eventually recovering slightly to close at $2.07 on Saturday. Despite the minor rebound, yesterday we saw a return to the $2 level, so overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains fragile, reflecting broader uncertainty in the sector.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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