Bitcoin Faces Pressure as US Tariff Risks Mount, Says Capriole’s Charles Edwards
Bitcoin is once again showing how sensitive it is to macroeconomic shifts—this time, with US trade tariffs looming as a serious headwind.
According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, if the US implements more aggressive-than-expected tariffs, Bitcoin could slide to $71,000.
Edwards notes that the crypto market tends to react sharply to rising tariffs. He points to historical price action as a warning: when President Trump announced global tariffs on April 2, 2023, Bitcoin fell by 8.5%. In contrast, the S&P 500 eked out a 0.7% gain, showing how much more volatile Bitcoin can be in times of policy stress.
Business Sentiment Weakens—A Warning Sign?
Adding to the concern, Edwards highlights a troubling signal from the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The BOS recently dipped below 15 for the first time in 2024, a level that echoes sentiment from major downturns in 2000, 2008, and 2022.
While the BOS isn’t always a reliable predictor, Edwards says it’s a useful red flag, especially when combined with other stress signals. If tariffs escalate further or corporate profit margins take a hit, Bitcoin may struggle to hold above $91,000—a key support level. Should that level break, a drop toward $71,000 is likely, though Edwards believes that area could serve as a rebound zone.
Liquidity Remains a Wildcard for BTC
It’s not just trade policy in focus—global liquidity could play a major role in Bitcoin’s next move. The Federal Reserve has already begun easing financial conditions, and there’s growing speculation around a potential return to quantitative easing (QE).
Historically, expansions in the M2 money supply—a broad measure of circulating
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