Forex Signals Brief April 2: Big Tariff Day Arrives, Markets Brace for Impact

Today the US will announce trade tariffs, but details will be most important, which could send markets both ways.

Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, April 2, 2025•3 min read

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Today the US will announce trade tariffs, but details will be most important, which could send markets both ways.

Trade Tariffs Keeping Markets Volatile — Trade Tariffs Keeping Markets on Edge

Tech stocks led market gains, while blue-chip and small-cap stocks remained more cautious. Investors continue to focus on economic data, corporate earnings, and upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions to gauge the market’s next move.

Early in the day, a Washington Post report suggested that the White House was considering imposing a broad 20% tariff, rattling market sentiment. Stock markets and futures dropped sharply, with major tech stocks opening lower. The USD/JPY tested the 149.00 level, and Treasury yields fell 10 basis points across the curve.

Economic data offered little direction, as ISM manufacturing numbers declined while prices paid increased. JOLTS job openings also showed a slight drop. However, sentiment improved later in the session after another report indicated that a 20% tariff was the least likely scenario and that the White House was monitoring global reactions before making a final decision.

Today’s Forex Events

The US ADP employment report is expected to show 105K jobs added, up from the previous 77K. The latest report noted that “policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or weaker hiring.” Employers appear hesitant to bring on new workers as they assess economic conditions, a trend reflected in other recent indicators.

Later today, the US is set to unveil its reciprocal tariff package, with speculation suggesting a potential 50% tariff on China and an overall reciprocal rate of 9-10%. Markets expect significant movement once details are released, however, everyone is on their toes since the devil hides in the details.

The U.S. stock market and the dollar experienced reversals throughout the session, with extreme volatility dominating trading activity. As a result, we executed 37 trading signals this week, with 25 wins and 12 losses, navigating the unpredictable market swings.

Gold Retreats Just Below $3,150

Gold remains in a strong uptrend despite economic uncertainty. After briefly dipping below $3,000, buyers stepped in aggressively, reaffirming support around the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The announcement of auto tariffs reignited the rally, pushing XAU/USD beyond $3,085 and reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset. Given the current momentum, the once-distant $4,000 target now seems increasingly realistic. Chart XAUUSD, D1, 2025.03.30 23:08 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

MAs Keeping the Price Subdued

The Australian dollar (AUD) has remained under pressure against the US dollar (USD), dropping nearly 8 cents in Q4 2024. The bearish trend continued into early February, briefly pushing AUD/USD below 0.61 before a short-lived recovery. This rebound was triggered by a delay in US trade tariffs, lifting the pair above 0.64. However, gains were capped as the 20-week SMA provided strong resistance, leading to another decline. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged at 4.10%, in line with previous statements emphasizing the restrictive nature of current monetary policy. RBA Governor Bullock confirmed that no decision had been made regarding the May meeting, maintaining a cautious outlook. Chart AUDUSD, D1, 2025.04.01 23:24 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUD/USD – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Returns Above $85K

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp midweek rally of $5,000 after the Federal Reserve signaled a more dovish stance. However, the move was capped by technical resistance at the 20-day SMA, triggering renewed selling pressure. A failure to hold above the 200-day SMA, a key support level, could lead to further declines.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Volatility Declines in Ripple XRP

Ripple (XRP) also experienced a brief surge to $2.98 in early March following President Trump’s mention of cryptocurrencies in his discussion of the National Crypto Reserve. However, the rally quickly faded after it was clarified that XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) were not part of the reserve. This led to a sharp selloff, pushing XRP below $2 before finding support at $1.90. Despite recovering slightly to end at $2.07 on Saturday, market sentiment remains fragile, reflecting the broader uncertainty in the crypto sector.

XRP/USD – Daily Chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.